Official Game Thread: Pacers at Hawks -- IST Game #3

[kg01]

6 minutes ago, Atlantaholic said:

Yea man, he wasn't blowing open dunks back then that's for sure. 

We needed OO to make a jump, desperately.  I still like him but I'm getting some Taj Gibson vibes and I don't like it. 

[Atlantaholic]

Just now, kg01 said:

We needed OO to make a jump, desperately.  I still like him but I'm getting some Taj Gibson vibes and I don't like it. 

I don't know. Biggest issue is he barely plays. He's at 22mpg.

[kg01]

18 minutes ago, Atlantaholic said:

I don't know. Biggest issue is he barely plays. He's at 22mpg.

True but that's partly because he can't stop fouling.  Out there defending like a human windmill, just a-swingin' at everything.  

Don't get me wrong, I'm just venting.  I'm still a fan. 

[Atlantaholic]

Just now, kg01 said:

True but that's partly because he can't stop fouling.  Out there defending like a human windmill, just a-swingin' at everything.  

Don't get me wrong, I'm just venting.  I'm still a fan. 

Oh of course, yea a lot of it is the foul issues, not sure why he can't solve that. 

[AHF]

2 hours ago, Atlantaholic said:

It's just kinda crazy to make these type of comments on these players based on ORTG and DRTG. Those stats basically tell you essentially who is most efficient offensively (ORTG: Points produced per 100 shots) and pretty much next to nothing (DRTG: Points allowed by the team while you are on the floor per 100 posessions). You can compare DRTG in the same team and get an idea of who is the best defender on the team, but you can't compare different individual DRTG of players on different teams because DRTG will be higher or lower depending on everyone else that shares the lineup with that player. Haliburton's 122 drtg is pretty much similar to everyone else on the team with significant minutes, and dido for the other guys on their teams. Brunson and Shai have much better defensive ratings than Trae Young and Hali because they play in top 7 and top 4 defensive teams in the league. If you put Brunson on the Hawks his DRTG wouldn't stay the same it would go up and he'd end up having the same DRTG as Trae give or take a couple of points. It just doesn't tell you anything about individual defense. 

 

And to clarify, not saying Trae IS a better defender than any or all of those guys, but just that DRTG is not what you can look at to determine that, the same way you can't look at ORTG to determine who is the best offensive player on a team or league. (It's usually always centers who shoot 60% from the floor that lead their teams) ORTG is flawed because it assumes that players will maintain their same exact rate of production at vastly increased volumes, which is pretty much never the case. 

I'm not big on using those numbers to compare players across teams either.  You get stuff like "Steve Kerr is a much better defender and player than Joe Dumars because Kerr has a 104 DRTG and +17 net rating while Dumars is a much worse 115 DRTG and -5 net rating."  (See 1993-94 numbers).  DRTG isn't really meant for comparison purposes like that.

Even comparing within teams isn't particularly useful.  Hunter and Trae have very similar DRTGs for their career even though Hunter is clearly the better defensive player.  It is just because DRTG isn't really intended to be a measure of the quality of a player's defense.

[Atlantaholic]

1 minute ago, AHF said:

I'm not big on using those numbers to compare players across teams either.  You get stuff like "Steve Kerr is a much better defender and player than Joe Dumars because Kerr has a 104 DRTG and +17 net rating while Dumars is a much worse 115 DRTG and -5 net rating."  (See 1993-94 numbers).  DRTG isn't really meant for comparison purposes like that.

Even comparing within teams isn't particularly useful.  Hunter and Trae have very similar DRTGs for their career even though Hunter is clearly the better defensive player.  It is just because DRTG isn't really intended to be a measure of the quality of a player's defense.

Exactly, even within the same team it's flawed for sure. It's still dependant on the other four guys who are playing alongside the player. Like if we look at Brunson, he is at 114 DRTG when the Knicks as a team are at 110. So he's -4 compared to his team average. Trae is at 121 vs 119 team average so he is -2. Is Trae a much better defender than Brunson? 

Just a stat that says nothing,

[AHF]

On the fouling, OO is sitting at 5 personal fouls per 36 right now which is right on par with last year (4.9) and close to his career average (5.2).

Feel like we need squirrely vet big man to help teach him some tricks of the trade to avoid drawing fouls.  (Not to avoid fouling but to avoid being called for fouls.  Preferably with techniques other than "put on a Heat jersey.")

[Atlantaholic]

1 minute ago, AHF said:

On the fouling, OO is sitting at 5 personal fouls per 36 right now which is right on par with last year (4.9) and close to his career average (5.2).

Feel like we need squirrely vet big man to help teach him some tricks of the trade to avoid drawing fouls.  (Not to avoid fouling but to avoid being called for fouls.  Preferably with techniques other than "put on a Heat jersey.")

Yea, it's extremely frustrating how he can't stay on the floor. He's valueable when he's out there. 

[kg01]

2 minutes ago, AHF said:

Blah, blah, blah ... hoity-toity mod voice..

.... It is just because DRTG isn't really intended to be a measure of the quality of a player's defense.

I just been saying this for about a decade now.  When are folks gonna admit it aloud?  Defensive metrics are the equivalent of calling voodoo a branch of medicine. 

[kg01]

2 minutes ago, AHF said:

On the fouling, OO is sitting at 5 personal fouls per 36 right now which is right on par with last year (4.9) and close to his career average (5.2).

Feel like we need squirrely vet big man to help teach him some tricks of the trade to avoid drawing fouls.  (Not to avoid fouling but to avoid being called for fouls.  Preferably with techniques other than "put on a Heat jersey.")

Whoa ... back up, folx.  AH is on a roll. 

"Just feed 'im and fan 'im, kg." 

[Atlantaholic]

2 minutes ago, kg01 said:

I just been saying this for about a decade now.  When are folks gonna admit it aloud?  Defensive metrics are the equivalent of calling voodoo a branch of medicine. 

There are better defensive metrics than DRTG, but yes they are all much less useful than offensive metrics. It's just very difficult in general to judge defense when everyone on the team is involved in it collectively much more so than the offense. 

[kg01]

Just now, Atlantaholic said:

There are better defensive metrics than DRTG, but yes they are all much less useful than offensive metrics. It's just very difficult in general to judge defense when everyone on the team is involved in it collectively much more so than the offense. 

Come on over to the Darkseid, Aholic.  You know they're all trassh.  I could come up with a defensive metric that makes any player a "good defender", just by manipulating what stats and weights I decide to put in the calculation. 

[Atlantaholic]

1 minute ago, kg01 said:

Come on over to the Darkseid, Aholic.  You know they're all trassh.  I could come up with a defensive metric that makes any player a "good defender", just by manipulating what stats and weights I decide to put in the calculation. 

I don't think they are all trash, but none are perfect that's for sure. It's possible to look at a constellation of different measures to get an idea about a player's defensive ability and value. Especially when you have large sample sizes (several seasons) available and you see the same trends time and time again. 

[kg01]

4 minutes ago, Atlantaholic said:

I don't think they are all trash, but none are perfect that's for sure. It's possible to look at a constellation of different measures to get an idea about a player's defensive ability and value. Especially when you have large sample sizes (several seasons) available and you see the same trends time and time again. 

.... I'm wearing you down, holic.  

[JeffS17]

1 hour ago, NBASupes said:

I can't lie, you made me laugh. I liked the effort and the content was fun for sure. Good post. 

You don't think Denver would win the title replacing Porter Jr with Hunter? That would make them even more lethal. I clearly think you can a title with him as your starting role player. Probably not as one of your top 3 player but 4-5, absolutely. The reason we can't win is because of 1 and 2. Trae and Murray aren't good enough 

That team will have a top 5 pick next year going to San Antonio. Congratulations!

No, I do not think Denver wins a chip with Hunter instead of MPJ.  Hunter would kill their offensive flow as he's not an intelligent enough or decisive enough offensive player to play with Jokic imo.  Their floor would shrink with Hunter out there in place of an elite 3P shooter.  And to win a championship, you need more than executing on basic defensive principles, you have to actually put effort into winning the game (i.e picking up loose balls, making impact plays, and most important, REBOUNDING).  MPJ averaged 8 boards a game in the playoffs last year.  For comparison, Hunter hasn't had 8 rebounds in a single game for the past 55 games.  I appreciate how consistently you discount and dismiss the impact of securing possession as a part of defense.

I would love to hear what your long term thinking is for this team, given your consistent condescending tone around anyone elses opinion.  Please do share.  And we're still waiting on those metrics that show how impactful Hunter is [on either side of the ball].

[JeffS17]

50 minutes ago, kg01 said:

We needed OO to make a jump, desperately.  I still like him but I'm getting some Taj Gibson vibes and I don't like it. 

We really do.  I'm hopefully he will get comfortable in Quin's defense over time.  He's had some good moments on offense but his touches are minimal.  I feel like he will be better long term than Capela who isn't quite as mobile.

[Gray Mule]

Talk ststs all you want to.  The one, most important thing is the entire team's winning % when any player is on or off the floor.  If the team wins when he's there, great!  When they don't, pooey!

[JayBirdHawk]

48 minutes ago, AHF said:

On the fouling, OO is sitting at 5 personal fouls per 36 right now which is right on par with last year (4.9) and close to his career average (5.2).

Feel like we need squirrely vet big man to help teach him some tricks of the trade to avoid drawing fouls.  (Not to avoid fouling but to avoid being called for fouls.  Preferably with techniques other than "put on a Heat jersey.")

 

46 minutes ago, Atlantaholic said:

Yea, it's extremely frustrating how he can't stay on the floor. He's valueable when he's out there. 

If OO is only playing 22 mpg, then fouls be damned. Just let him play. He's got 3 fouls per half, might as well let him use them. 30 minutes, 5 fouls...let's go.

[Atlantaholic]

50 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

 

If OO is only playing 22 mpg, then fouls be damned. Just let him play. He's got 3 fouls per half, might as well let him use them. 30 minutes, 5 fouls...let's go.

I agree, but I also think it's not the only factor. There are some matchups where we need Clint because OO is simply too small. 

[NBASupes]

1 hour ago, JeffS17 said:

No, I do not think Denver wins a chip with Hunter instead of MPJ.  Hunter would kill their offensive flow as he's not an intelligent enough or decisive enough offensive player to play with Jokic imo.  Their floor would shrink with Hunter out there in place of an elite 3P shooter.  And to win a championship, you need more than executing on basic defensive principles, you have to actually put effort into winning the game (i.e picking up loose balls, making impact plays, and most important, REBOUNDING).  MPJ averaged 8 boards a game in the playoffs last year.  For comparison, Hunter hasn't had 8 rebounds in a single game for the past 55 games.  I appreciate how consistently you discount and dismiss the impact of securing possession as a part of defense.

I would love to hear what your long term thinking is for this team, given your consistent condescending tone around anyone elses opinion.  Please do share.  And we're still waiting on those metrics that show how impactful Hunter is [on either side of the ball].

I don’t really agree with the reasoning but lets just say for agrument purposes, say i do. Replace him with KPC who was accused of all the same things in LA when he was with Bron and AD, what about replacing him with Hunter? What's your reasoning there. 

Easy. 

My reasoning for Hunter is simple. He fits a role that's like Capela. He's that perfect mid tier starter that's hard to find and covers a niche. You see guys like him and Clint on title teams. 

GS had Bogut or Barnes

LAL had Green or KCP

Denver had KCP

Philly was about to beat us till Green got hurt

That's what I see when I see him.  

Where's he's a tier above JAG but not a tier above on the same level with high end 6th man which is what I labeled JC. I am always willing to pay guys like Hunter and Clint more. Hunter is a tad overpaid for his offensive consistency but his positional need is sky high as it's hard to find big wings who can shoot 3s, and can defend multiple positions. I see Hunter as more valuable than I see Porter Jr right now. I see Capela as more valuable. I see OO as more valuable too. JJ is quickly moving up fast, I didn't see this at all but the talent and potential is there so it's not a shock either. 

That's what I see from Hunter. He's a mid tier player but a starter who plays a role. His value is heighten due to the lack of quality options in his prototype and the need for that prototype. Almost everyone good in that prototype goes in the top 10 even when they suck. It's just too hard to get those guys. They are at a premium. They are the centers of the 2000s where you are convinced Zaza sucks but he's overpaid because Erick Dampier and the rest of them are ass out overpaid. Just what's happening. 

As far as the Hawks. The problem is your two best players. Both are 25-35 tier guys. That's not gonna cut it especially when teams like Orlando and OKC got 6 legit top 100 guys and the talent level of Paolo and Chet could be top 15 and OKC also has SGA who's closing in on the top 10 for me. I need you to prove it longer, SGA and Hali to overtake Bron or Dame. 

Hunter probably is not good enough be your 4th best player and definitely not good enough to be your 3rd best player and if he is, everyone 3-7 better be eventually stacked like the ECF team we had with Gallo, Bogi, Trae, OO, Capela, Hunter, Solo, Snell, and Cam. 

Our problem right now isn't depth. It's a lack of balance. Too much offense. Not enough defense. Even Clint and OO giving us better offense this year but worse defense. A part of it is the new scheme. It's easier on offense and harder on defense. Maybe we aren't capable of executing this new scheme but we are offensively.