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Some thoughts & questions from a new member


SeminoleDoug

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1.) Since I am new, I would just like to start out by saying what a god I think Danny Ferry is for pulling off the Joe Johnson trade. I was hoping we would do a sign and trade from the very beginning (before he was re-signed and kept) so we could get some value out of him. The fact that we signed him to a $120 million contract being that he was basically 30 at the time, and were keeping him was always insane to me. The fact that he was able to get rid of that hot potato contract before Joe Johnson really, really started deteriorating (when nobody would want him) and managed to get a ton of expiring contracts and a first round pick from one of the only two teams who probably wanted him was nothing short of amazing. And look at what it essentially meant. By clearing Joe's max contract, we freed up room to sign at least one different max player (assuming one worth it is willing to come to Atlanta)...upgrading Joe's for a better and probably younger max player...PLUS got another first round pick.

2.) Do you think there is any chance we can get two top tier players to Atlanta? Especially Dwight Howard? I just can't understand why everything I've read said he isn't interested in playing in Atlanta, his hometown and where Josh Smith currently plays. Can't understand it. What about Chris Paul? Just thinking about a team with Horford, Howard, and Chris Paul is an amazing thing to think about. Then throw in two first round picks and it's a pretty amazing thought. Unlikely, but actually possible...instead of being saddled with Joe Johnson's contract for 4 years.

3.) Would you rather be the 5 seed or draft one or two spots higher? Frankly, with all of the injuries (especially Lou Williams), I think I'd just assume draft a spot higher. We're not going to win it this year.

4.) What should we do with the two picks? Keep them or try to trade up? I have no idea what kind of value is in the draft this year.

5.) How many of you guys on this board want to keep Josh Smith? If it's possible, I would really love to. Does he take bad shots? Obviously. His FG percentage is still really good and he just does such a variety of things that few other players can match. I'd love to have Paul (and maybe he's more willing to come to Atlanta than Howard), but could you imagine a front court of Howard, Horford, and Smith?

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Go big or go home...that's what I say. Some post for a newbie. I'll do my best to answer 1 at a time.

1. Clearing up Joe's contract alone wasn't what freed up the money. Joe cleared 19 million this coming season but because we were operating 12 million over the cap it only cleared about 7 million in cap space. There were other contracts set to expire that also cleared room this past year and next (Hinrich's big deal being one, Zaza's impending deal being another). However, trading Marvin's 7.5-8.5 a year 2 year deal for Harris' 1 year 9 million deal effectively is clearing about 8 million this year over what we started last year at. That with Joe, Zaza and Hinrich is what cleared about 30 million total this summer. It was both the coup in sending Johnson with sending away Marvin plus good timing with others that has put us in this position.

2. Top Tier is a funny word. No we can't sign 2 max players. The reason is that even though we have cleared up the cap space, there is still a cap hold that will exist for many of those players unless we renounce our rights. Notably, Josh Smith's cap hold next year will be over 19 million. We won't renounce him because if we do let Josh go, we won't be able to do a sign n trade which would both help the other team and return us an asset. The cap holds will keep us from doing what most think we can. Even if we renounced everyone, there will be a cap hold for every vacant roster spot and for our 2 first round rookies eating into that cap space some. Without Josh we'll get or trade for a top tier player and a mid-level player. But not 2 top tier.

3. Drafting higher isn't a good thing unless you are getting a sure thing. Higher draft picks in the teens are a crap shoot but cost a little more in salary with each slot up. That salary eats into our cap space (see answer 2). Finishing higher is better this year and in the future as rookies rarely contribute right away....especially non lottery rookies.

4. There have been a few topics on this. I'm guessing we are going to move one of them for another teams quality player but cap burden (someone like Carlos Boozer, Andrew Bogut or Andrei Bargnani).

5. Josh love/hate on this board is 50/50. I for one love the guy.

Welcome to the board.

1.) Since I am new, I would just like to start out by saying what a god I think Danny Ferry is for pulling off the Joe Johnson trade. I was hoping we would do a sign and trade from the very beginning (before he was re-signed and kept) so we could get some value out of him. The fact that we signed him to a $120 million contract being that he was basically 30 at the time, and were keeping him was always insane to me. The fact that he was able to get rid of that hot potato contract before Joe Johnson really, really started deteriorating (when nobody would want him) and managed to get a ton of expiring contracts and a first round pick from one of the only two teams who probably wanted him was nothing short of amazing. And look at what it essentially meant. By clearing Joe's max contract, we freed up room to sign at least one different max player (assuming one worth it is willing to come to Atlanta)...upgrading Joe's for a better and probably younger max player...PLUS got another first round pick.

2.) Do you think there is any chance we can get two top tier players to Atlanta? Especially Dwight Howard? I just can't understand why everything I've read said he isn't interested in playing in Atlanta, his hometown and where Josh Smith currently plays. Can't understand it. What about Chris Paul? Just thinking about a team with Horford, Howard, and Chris Paul is an amazing thing to think about. Then throw in two first round picks and it's a pretty amazing thought. Unlikely, but actually possible...instead of being saddled with Joe Johnson's contract for 4 years.

3.) Would you rather be the 5 seed or draft one or two spots higher? Frankly, with all of the injuries (especially Lou Williams), I think I'd just assume draft a spot higher. We're not going to win it this year.

4.) What should we do with the two picks? Keep them or try to trade up? I have no idea what kind of value is in the draft this year.

5.) How many of you guys on this board want to keep Josh Smith? If it's possible, I would really love to. Does he take bad shots? Obviously. His FG percentage is still really good and he just does such a variety of things that few other players can match. I'd love to have Paul (and maybe he's more willing to come to Atlanta than Howard), but could you imagine a front court of Howard, Horford, and Smith?

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Welcome to the board. Don't be afraid to express your opinions on any subject at any time. You'll quickly find out here that people almost never agree totally with each other on a subject, which keeps the board lively. Something that looks cut and dry to one person, will look totally different to another. For example . . . my answer to Question 1 . . lol.

1) Let's hold off on Ferry being a "god" until we really see what he can do this summer. Yes, Joe Johnson was overpaid with that contract. But the fact that we basically gave away a 6-time All-Star for a bunch of dead flies and a low 1st round draft pick, isn't exactly an Earth shattering move. We also got Kyle Korver because of the JJ trade ( via a 5 million dollar trade exception we received from the trade ), which as of right now, was the best thing that came out of that trade. But even with Kyle, he may simply be a one year rental.

As for JJ's contract not being able to be moved in the future as he declined, that's false. While JJ's salary in Year 5 ( 23.2 mill ) and Year 6 ( 24.9 mill ) is INSANE, a team looking to rebuild and/or shed future salary, would've been willing to trade with us. Most of the time, we'd be able to add decent players in a trade, while also possibly having to take on one "bad" contract of an underachieving mediocre player. Even with the new collective bargaining agreement, trades like that will still go down.

The real truth is that had the Joe Johnson trade not go down this season, we'd be a better team right now ( possibly the #3 seed ). But we wouldn't be any closer to winning a championship now, or possibly in the future. I wasn't totally against the JJ trade, but I was against trading him for what we got for him. Ferry took the bare minimum for Joe. So we'll have to see what he brings in to improve the team, before we can erect that statue of Danny Ferry in front of Philips Arena.

2) Like Camp said, "top tier" is a funny word. There are only two players in the top tier . . . Dwight Howard and Chris Paul. No, we probably can't sign them both. No, neither of them has shown any indication that they'd want to come here. Despite this being Dwight's home town, he has NEVER said that he wanted to play for the Hawks one day. And playing with Josh Smith isn't as appealing as one would think.

I think maybe if we were to pull of a trade to bring Rajon Rondo to Atlanta ( in a sign and trade of Josh Smith ), MAYBE Dwight may glance our way for about 3 seconds. A Rondo - Horford - Dwight trio would be very interesting here. But Dwight, once again, has shown not one bit of interest of playing for the Hawks. Also remember that the Lakers can offer him an extra year on his contract and give him about 30 million more than any other team in the league. Plus he's on the Lakers, the highest profile team in the league. Those are two BIG things they have against us, that we simply cannot duplicate.

As for Chris Paul, he plays with the league's most exciting dunker in Blake Griffin, and he plays in a city in which he can get as much media attention he wants. He's been the #1 reason why the Clippers fortune as a franchise has turned around. I'll admit that it will be interesting to see what will happen with the Clips and Paul, if they crash and burn in the 1st round. Maybe he will blink a little if that happens. But like with Dwight Howard, the Clippers can pay him more than anybody . . and he hasn't talked about playing in Atlanta since the time he got drafted.

3) Honestly, it really doesn't matter. Hawks are currently slotted to have the #18 pick ( ours ) and the #20 pick ( the pick we got in the JJ trade, which the Nets got from Houston ). If we're the 5th seed, that pick is the #19 selection. So it's not like we're going to get a significantly better player either way. The names being thrown around on different mock draft boards with those selections, are guys like:

Archie Goodwin ( SG - Kentucky )

Mitch McGary ( C - Michigan )

James McAdoo ( PF - North Carolina )

Steven Adams ( C - Pittsburgh )

Rudy Gobert ( C - France )

Lucas Noquiera ( C - Brazil )

If none of those names blow you away, you kind of see where we are with those picks. Can any of those big men even be better than Ivan Johnson? Is a guy like Archie Goodwin a better SG than John Jenkins? This is where we'll really see what kind of GM that Ferry is. Coming from the San Antonio management machine, Popovich, Ferry, and their scouting team had a knack for finding diamonds in the rough or very good international players who flew under the radar. If Ferry can duplicate that here, he'll prove his worth as a good GM.

4) If we could trade the picks to get a decent established player ( especially at SF ), I'd probably be all for trading the picks. Something tells me that Ferry will hold onto the picks, and try to build the team from the ground, up.

5) If Josh really doesn't show out in the playoffs, and play at a high level ( I'm talking about legit All-Star level ), it's time for the Josh Smith era to end in Atlanta. He's part of the element that makes us good as a team. But he's also part of the element that holds this team back. If he's still jacking up a ton of bad jumpers in a playoff series, and we lose partially because of that, say bye, bye to Josh. Give complete control of the team to Horford, or whatever big name free agent we may bring in.

Josh isn't exactly the guy I want to go to battle with, in a playoff series. Honestly, it may simply be time to part ways. He gave us a good 9 years. But like Joe Johnson, he couldn't get us to the next level. Let's see if we can replace Josh with a better player that compliments the team overall.

Edited by northcyde
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3) Honestly, it really doesn't matter. Hawks are currently slotted to have the #18 pick ( ours ) and the #20 pick ( the pick we got in the JJ trade, which the Nets got from Houston ). If we're the 5th seed, that pick is the #19 selection. So it's not like we're going to get a significantly better player either way. The names being thrown around on different mock draft boards with those selections, are guys like:

Archie Goodwin ( SG - Kentucky )

Mitch McGary ( C - Michigan )

James McAdoo ( PF - North Carolina )

Steven Adams ( C - Pittsburgh )

Rudy Gobert ( C - France )

Lucas Noquiera ( C - Brazil )

If none of those names blow you away, you kind of see where we are with those picks. Can any of those big men even be better than Ivan Johnson? Is a guy like Archie Goodwin a better SG than John Jenkins? This is where we'll really see what kind of GM that Ferry is. Coming from the San Antonio management machine, Popovich, Ferry, and their scouting team had a knack for finding diamonds in the rough or very good international players who flew under the radar. If Ferry can duplicate that here, he'll prove his worth as a good GM.

5) If Josh really doesn't show out in the playoffs, and play at a high level ( I'm talking about legit All-Star level ), it's time for the Josh Smith era to end in Atlanta. He's part of the element that makes us good as a team. But he's also part of the element that holds this team back. If he's still jacking up a ton of bad jumpers in a playoff series, and we lose partially because of that, say bye, bye to Josh. Give complete control of the team to Horford, or whatever big name free agent we may bring in.

Josh isn't exactly the guy I want to go to battle with, in a playoff series. Honestly, it may simply be time to part ways. He gave us a good 9 years. But like Joe Johnson, he couldn't get us to the next level. Let's see if we can replace Josh with a better player that compliments the team overall.

In my opinion every draft spot has value. You want the most possible players available when your picks comes up.

In 2007 we were 1 pick away from having Noah over Law. In 2009 we were 1 pick away from having Lawson over Teague. Look how the 2010 draft board completely fell off after pick 19:

15. Larry Sanders

16. Luke Rabbit

17. Kevin Seraphin

18. Eric Bledsoe

19. Avery Bradley

Then there was a drastic drop off where the next picks were: James Anderson, Craig Backins, Elliot Willimas, Trevor Booker, etc until pick #27 where Vasquez was taken.

My mouth waters at the potential of Adams and I like Dieng and Whitney as well as C's.

I'm with you on having enough of Josh Smith. He looks like a star when he goes to work in the paint vs. undersized PFs like Thaddeous Young and center who can't protect the rim like Spencer Hawes. Then in a playoff series vs better frontcourt players he goes back out to the perimeter where he usually not effective.

I would rather use our cap space on young veterans who still have upside. I like the idea of JJ Hickson and Tyreke Evans is the price is right. Evans can give you minutes at PG, SG, and SF. He has great length and is a good defender with an over all offensive game. Hickson can be interchangeable with Horford at PF and C. They can switch at will without losing much on defense. I like the idea of drafting a rim protecting center to rotate with them. That was give us a core of young veterans assuming we also resign Teague to go with 2 1st round draft picks.

As far as Camp's idea of trading a pick for the likes of Boozer, Bogut, or Bargani, I don't like it. I don't think we are a Boozer type of player away from competing for a championship. I've never like Bargaini and Bogut seems to be damaged goods. Now if we luck out and get Paul or Howard in free agency then I'll do a 180 and convert to win now mode....choosing veterans over rookies. I just don't see the franchise being at that stage right now.

Edited by coachx
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In my opinion every draft spot has value. You want the most possible players available when your picks comes up.

In 2007 we were 1 pick away from having Noah over Law. In 2009 we were 1 pick away from having Lawson over Teague. Look how the 2010 draft board completely fell off after pick 19:

15. Larry Sanders

16. Luke Rabbit

17. Kevin Seraphin

18. Eric Bledsoe

19. Avery Bradley

Then there was a drastic drop off where the next picks were: James Anderson, Craig Backins, Elliot Willimas, Trevor Booker, etc until pick #27 where Vasquez was taken.

My mouth waters at the potential of Adams and I like Dieng and Whitney as well as C's.

I'm with you on having enough of Josh Smith. He looks like a star when he goes to work in the paint vs. undersized PFs like Thaddeous Young and center who can't protect the rim like Spencer Hawes. Then in a playoff series vs better frontcourt players he goes back out to the perimeter where he usually not effective.

I would rather use our cap space on young veterans who still have upside. I like the idea of JJ Hickson and Tyreke Evans is the price is right. Evans can give you minutes at PG, SG, and SF. He has great length and is a good defender with an over all offensive game. Hickson can be interchangeable with Horford at PF and C. They can switch at will without losing much on defense. I like the idea of drafting a rim protecting center to rotate with them. That was give us a core of young veterans assuming we also resign Teague to go with 2 1st round draft picks.

As far as Camp's idea of trading a pick for the likes of Boozer, Bogut, or Bargani, I don't like it. I don't think we are a Boozer type of player away from competing for a championship. I've never like Bargaini and Bogut seems to be damaged goods. Now if we luck out and get Paul or Howard in free agency then I'll do a 180 and convert to win now mode....choosing veterans over rookies. I just don't see the franchise being at that stage right now.

You might be mistaking my assertion of believing what they will do for what they should do. Here's the problem. As Northcyde points out, after Dwight, Paul, maybe Smith and Bynum, there is a real fall off in people we want to take our money. But we need to spend that salary and this year or our flexibility in trading for other team's players is severely limited. We have to spend that money on someone. So assuming Paul, Howard, Bynum are not Hawks next year, lets make some financial assumptions. Lets assume there is no way Stevenson is back (non-guaranteed). The Hawks will start F/A with 6 players under contract: Scott, Jenkins, Horford, Johnson, Teague, Williams and about 22.5 million spent. Assuming Josh is not back and assuming they exercise both picks at about 2 million in value each. They now have 8 roster spots filled and 24.5 million spent. They need 5 players and have 35.5 million under the cap. But there aren't many players left out there worth in excess of 10 million a year a year that we will convince to take our money. Without Dwight, Paul, Smith, Bynum and playing in the same division as Miami, convincing players we are a contender will be impossible. So we will end up overpaying for them and long term. So in order to make the team more enticing, trading away the following commodities for other team's good players is possible. We have 2 2nd round picks this year and 1 next year. We have 2 first round picks this year and 1 next year. If we trade for another team's salary headache with a short term deal, we greatly enhance our team short term while retaining our long-term flexibility. But drafting and hoping isn't a solution. We have to fill out our roster and we have to spend 85% of the cap (or roughly 51 million) by season start. We have to pay someone and we don't want to overpay long term. Its better to overpay short term.

Edited by thecampster
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A few comments. Firstly, other than not really completely agreeing about Josh Smith's value to the team, I really like Coach's comments a lot. I completely agree that the one spot could be a huge difference. The problem is that it wasn't a big difference betwen 21 and 22 in his example but there was a big difference between 19 and 20 and you don't know ahead of time where that dropoff will be. That's why I just assume be the 6th seed and have draft that one spot higher rather than probably lose in Brooklyn instead of Indiana. Just my opinion. I also agree with him that if we can't get one of the superstars like Howard or Paul, I'd like to try to build this team around value players, which it seems like might be one of Ferry's strength (picking up guys like Korver and Williams).

I can't even begin to claim to know our cap situation as well as campser, but what he said made sense to me.especially about overpaying in the shortterm rather than the long. I hope we can figure out a way to build this team into a contender, though, because for all of the challenges mentioned, there just seems to be at least as much opportunity. In my eyes.

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A few comments. Firstly, other than not really completely agreeing about Josh Smith's value to the team, I really like Coach's comments a lot. I completely agree that the one spot could be a huge difference. The problem is that it wasn't a big difference betwen 21 and 22 in his example but there was a big difference between 19 and 20 and you don't know ahead of time where that dropoff will be. That's why I just assume be the 6th seed and have draft that one spot higher rather than probably lose in Brooklyn instead of Indiana. Just my opinion. I also agree with him that if we can't get one of the superstars like Howard or Paul, I'd like to try to build this team around value players, which it seems like might be one of Ferry's strength (picking up guys like Korver and Williams).

I can't even begin to claim to know our cap situation as well as campser, but what he said made sense to me.especially about overpaying in the shortterm rather than the long. I hope we can figure out a way to build this team into a contender, though, because for all of the challenges mentioned, there just seems to be at least as much opportunity. In my eyes.

you'd be surprised how often 1 million is the difference between being able to sign just the right piece or not. Especially when teams can offer a midlevel exception you can't. Drafting smart...not high is the answer. See San Antonio.

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I think if we got Howard we need an explosive SG to play next to him. Howard is NOT a go to guy on the offensive end. He looked like he could be one when he had a roster full of shooters playing next to him a few years ago, but I think at this point you just expect 15-17 PPG with shot blocking and lots of rebounding. Which is fine actually. But.... his passing skills are weak, and his offensive game is still raw... Sometimes he doesn't take as many shots as he should either.

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Have to wonder if Howard will think harder about deserting the Lakers with the Kobe injury.

If anything it just accelerates the time table for the team becoming his. Before he was looking at waiting another year for Kobe to expire and maybe retire before he became the unquestioned man. There has been no love lost between the two (hyper competitors and class clowns rarely tend to get along) and I sincerely doubt that Howard intended to be playing with Kobe for the 5 years of his deal.

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1.) Since I am new, I would just like to start out by saying what a god I think Danny Ferry is for pulling off the Joe Johnson trade. I was hoping we would do a sign and trade from the very beginning (before he was re-signed and kept) so we could get some value out of him. The fact that we signed him to a $120 million contract being that he was basically 30 at the time, and were keeping him was always insane to me. The fact that he was able to get rid of that hot potato contract before Joe Johnson really, really started deteriorating (when nobody would want him) and managed to get a ton of expiring contracts and a first round pick from one of the only two teams who probably wanted him was nothing short of amazing. And look at what it essentially meant. By clearing Joe's max contract, we freed up room to sign at least one different max player (assuming one worth it is willing to come to Atlanta)...upgrading Joe's for a better and probably younger max player...PLUS got another first round pick.

First off, welcome to the Squawk. Second, I agree with you about Ferry. I believe the man deserves a bronze outside of the Philips Arena for the work he did to trade Joe/Marv. He has set this team up to have endless possibilities for the future. We have the option this offseason to sign a max guy, although I think we'd be better off signing two or more guys for that price (Let's say, Bynum, Iggy, and/or Evans) and we were able to pick up a first round pick in the process. He is like Daryl Morey mixed with Sam Presti. Build through the draft AND free agency.

2.) Do you think there is any chance we can get two top tier players to Atlanta? Especially Dwight Howard? I just can't understand why everything I've read said he isn't interested in playing in Atlanta, his hometown and where Josh Smith currently plays. Can't understand it. What about Chris Paul? Just thinking about a team with Horford, Howard, and Chris Paul is an amazing thing to think about. Then throw in two first round picks and it's a pretty amazing thought. Unlikely, but actually possible...instead of being saddled with Joe Johnson's contract for 4 years.

If you would have asked me this question at the beginning of the year, I would have told you that Dwight was next to a done deal and Paul had no chance because of "Lob City", but now I think that the Dwight deal is next to nil and Paul has a chance. They say that a lot of players do not want to play in their hometown's because of all the added pressure to represent the city. Also, since it is their hometown, all of their families and friends that they grew up with are here which can be a good thing, but it's mostly bad since most NBA players grew up in poverty and now that they are rich, people around them come knocking for handouts. Most players like living in one place and working in another for this reason. I know that the best two years of my life were the two years I had living in Atlanta where I had no friends or relatives initially. I was able to make new friends and not worry about what my family back home may be thinking of my actions. This is the case for Dwight and everyone knows about his numerous baby mamas, but isn't the same case for Chris Paul who is from North Carolina. Hell, even Smoove lives in LA and works in Atlanta. Bynum has a house here and reportedly has interest in Atlanta. Bringing in Bynum and Paul would be a hell of a catch.

3.) Would you rather be the 5 seed or draft one or two spots higher? Frankly, with all of the injuries (especially Lou Williams), I think I'd just assume draft a spot higher. We're not going to win it this year.

I have said from day one that I want that 6th seed. It's truly the best spot for us because we'd get Indy in the first round likely who we own the season series against and if we got through Indy, we'd likely face the Knicks. Best part about that is NO MIAMI. Second best part about the sixth seed, better draft picks. 6th seed is win win.

4.) What should we do with the two picks? Keep them or try to trade up? I have no idea what kind of value is in the draft this year.

Keep them. Two picks are better than one and their really isn't anybody in the draft worth trading up for. Give me McCollum and Dieng with those two picks. Great combo guard in McCollum that has excellent court vision and prides himself on defense. Good rebounder for a guard and can score anywhere. Diamond in the rough in this draft. Dieng on the other hand is a good prospect center that reminds me a lot of Serge Ibaka. Great motor, rebounder, and blocker with loads of upside.

5.) How many of you guys on this board want to keep Josh Smith? If it's possible, I would really love to. Does he take bad shots? Obviously. His FG percentage is still really good and he just does such a variety of things that few other players can match. I'd love to have Paul (and maybe he's more willing to come to Atlanta than Howard), but could you imagine a front court of Howard, Horford, and Smith?

I would not mind keeping Josh, but for the right price. 5 yr / $65 mil w/ the final year as a player option. He does give a lot to the team, but as the CBA is and for what we could get for less, he just isn't worth anymore. A Bynum/Horford/Smith backcourt would be just as potent, but that likely means that Paul isn't here and if Paul is here, then that means our bench will be cheap and full of inexperience. I'd much rather to move on from Smoove, sign a completely new coaching staff (Sorry Lester), and go with Bynum/Horford/Iggy or Player X/Tyreke, Jenkins, or Player Y/Paul or Teague. A new scheme in Atlanta may erase the need for Smith's help-side defense and poor offensive play.I'd love it if we could snag Doug Collins to be our coach. Also, if we had Collins, we would become more attractive to guys like Bynum and Iggy, who have both been under Collins and respect him. Lou is also familiar with Collins. Give Collins a true PF in Horford as opposed to undersized Thaddeus Young, bring in Iggy whose the same player as Smoove only shorter and has a higher BBIQ to be our SF, throw $7 mil at Tyreke to be our SG (or promote Jenkins), and have Paul at point, we'd be instant contenders. Even without Paul we are still a very good team with Teague. Also, that is a team Korver would interested in staying with. Sixers South baby!
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