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#6 pick the last 10 years . . . with the top 2 players who turned out better drafted later )

 

2010 - Ekpe Udoh ( GS ) . . . . . . . . . . . ( next best available - Gordan Hayward #9, Paul George #10 )

2011 - Jan Vesely ( WAS ) . . . . . . . . . . ( Kawhi Leonard #15, Jimmy Butler #30 )

2012 - Damian Lillard ( POR ) . . . . . .  ( none )

2013 - Nerlens Noel ( PHI ) . . . . . . . . ( CJ McCollum #10, Giannis #15 )

2014 - Marcus Smart ( BOS ) . . . . . . . ( Julius Randle #7, Nikola Jokic #41 )

 

2015 - Willie Cauley-Stein ( SAC )  . . . ( Devin Booker #13, Montrezl Harrell #32 )

2016 - Buddy Hield ( NOLA ) . . . . . . . . ( Jamal Murray #7, Pascal Siakam #27 )

2017 - Jonathan Issac ( ORL ) . . . . . . . ( Donovan Mitchell #13, Bam Adebayo #14 )

2018 - Mohamed Bamba ( ORL ) . . . . ( Collin Sexton #8, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander #11 )

2019 - Jarrett Culver ( MIN ) . . . . . . . . ( Cam Reddish #10. Tyler Herro #13 )

 

The 6th pick is not the spot you want to be in, because most teams tend to pick for need at this spot, rather than the best player available.

 

Question for the forum:  With the players that are projected to be available at #6, who do you think can;

  • Come in and be a rookie starter?
  • Come in and be a rotation player? ( top 9 in rotation )

 

If we can't draft a player that can't step right in and get about 20 minutes a night, we need to seriously think about trading this pick for a vet player who can do just that.

 

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13 minutes ago, TheNorthCydeRises said:

#6 pick the last 10 years . . . with the top 2 players who turned out better drafted later )

 

2010 - Ekpe Udoh ( GS ) . . . . . . . . . . . ( next best available - Gordan Hayward #9, Paul George #10 )

2011 - Jan Vesely ( WAS ) . . . . . . . . . . ( Kawhi Leonard #15, Jimmy Butler #30 )

2012 - Damian Lillard ( POR ) . . . . . .  ( none )

2013 - Nerlens Noel ( PHI ) . . . . . . . . ( CJ McCollum #10, Giannis #15 )

2014 - Marcus Smart ( BOS ) . . . . . . . ( Julius Randle #7, Nikola Jokic #41 )

 

2015 - Willie Cauley-Stein ( SAC )  . . . ( Devin Booker #13, Montrezl Harrell #32 )

2016 - Buddy Hield ( NOLA ) . . . . . . . . ( Jamal Murray #7, Pascal Siakam #27 )

2017 - Jonathan Issac ( ORL ) . . . . . . . ( Donovan Mitchell #13, Bam Adebayo #14 )

2018 - Mohamed Bamba ( ORL ) . . . . ( Collin Sexton #8, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander #11 )

2019 - Jarrett Culver ( MIN ) . . . . . . . . ( Cam Reddish #10. Tyler Herro #13 )

 

The 6th pick is not the spot you want to be in, because most teams tend to pick for need at this spot, rather than the best player available.

 

Question for the forum:  With the players that are projected to be available at #6, who do you think can;

  • Come in and be a rookie starter?
  • Come in and be a rotation player? ( top 9 in rotation )

 

If we can't draft a player that can't step right in and get about 20 minutes a night, we need to seriously think about trading this pick for a vet player who can do just that.

 

I wouldn't base anything on the history of the 6th pick. 

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12 minutes ago, TheNorthCydeRises said:

If we can't draft a player that can't step right in and get about 20 minutes a night, we need to seriously think about trading this pick for a vet player who can do just that.

I will willingly trade for a vet that has a contract longer than a 1 year contract.  I would like us to be adding to the team for continuity beyond this season. It we can't make a trade that makes sense - we just keep the pick.

This year, all these draft picks will be at a disadvantage: shortened college season, no Summer League, shortened training camp and less preseason games.  There will be a lot these rookies will need to get acclimated too within 1 month of getting drafted (Nov 18th)  to the 1st game of the season (Dec 22nd).

Hawks can and will pick up their vet player(s) via FAcy.

 

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9 minutes ago, bleachkit said:

I wouldn't base anything on the history of the 6th pick. 

 

Why not?

It's the spot in the lottery in which you better know beyond a shadow of a doubt, who can play and contribute.  For a lot of teams, they're either willing to draft for need, or gamble on potential.

Especially in this age in which you're trying to properly evaluate kids who are 19 and 20 years old, and may only have 1 year of college under their belt.

But hey, let's go further back.

 

2009 - Johnny Flynn

2008 - Danillo Gallanari

2007 - Yi Jianlian - ( wow . . what a catastrophic mistake we would've made, if we took that guy at #3 instead of Horford )

2006 - Brandon Roy

2005 - Martell Webster

2004 - Josh Childress

2003 - Chris Kaman

2002 - Dajuan Wagner

2001 - Shane Battier

2000 - DeMarr Johnson

 

At least this group only had 4 busts.  How about the previous decade, in which you had more seasoned players coming out of college?

 

1999 - Wally Szczerbiak

1998 - Robert "Tractor" Traylor 

1997 - Ron Mercer

1996 - Antoine Walker

1995 - Bryant "Big Country" Reeves

1994 - Sharone Wright

1993 - Calbert Chaney 

1992 - Tom Gugliotta

1991 - Doug Smith

1990 - Felton Spencer

 

So that's a 30 year snapshot from 1990 - 2019.

There's about a 40% chance that we're going to draft a bust at #6.

In a draft that isn't supposed to be that talented, that percentage may be worse.

 

Either move up in this draft, or trade that pick for a vet.

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3 minutes ago, TheNorthCydeRises said:

 

Why not?

It's the spot in the lottery in which you better know beyond a shadow of a doubt, who can play and contribute.  For a lot of teams, they're either willing to draft for need, or gamble on potential.

Especially in this age in which you're trying to properly evaluate kids who are 19 and 20 years old, and may only have 1 year of college under their belt.

But hey, let's go further back.

 

2009 - Johnny Flynn

2008 - Danillo Gallanari

2007 - Yi Jianlian - ( wow . . what a catastrophic mistake we would've made, if we took that guy at #3 instead of Horford )

2006 - Brandon Roy

2005 - Martell Webster

2004 - Josh Childress

2003 - Chris Kaman

2002 - Dajuan Wagner

2001 - Shane Battier

2000 - DeMarr Johnson

 

At least this group only had 4 busts.  How about the previous decade, in which you had more seasoned players coming out of college?

 

1999 - Wally Szczerbiak

1998 - Robert "Tractor" Traylor 

1997 - Ron Mercer

1996 - Antoine Walker

1995 - Bryant "Big Country" Reeves

1994 - Sharone Wright

1993 - Calbert Chaney 

1992 - Tom Gugliotta

1991 - Doug Smith

1990 - Felton Spencer

 

So that's a 30 year snapshot from 1990 - 2019.

There's about a 40% chance that we're going to draft a bust at #6.

In a draft that isn't supposed to be that talented, that percentage may be worse.

 

Either move up in this draft, or trade that pick for a vet.

What if the player you like falls to #6? Your philosophy of trading out of the pick no matter what, merely because it's #6 is not rational.

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11 minutes ago, TheNorthCydeRises said:

 

Why not?

It's the spot in the lottery in which you better know beyond a shadow of a doubt, who can play and contribute.  For a lot of teams, they're either willing to draft for need, or gamble on potential.

Especially in this age in which you're trying to properly evaluate kids who are 19 and 20 years old, and may only have 1 year of college under their belt.

But hey, let's go further back.

 

2009 - Johnny Flynn

2008 - Danillo Gallanari

2007 - Yi Jianlian - ( wow . . what a catastrophic mistake we would've made, if we took that guy at #3 instead of Horford )

2006 - Brandon Roy

2005 - Martell Webster

2004 - Josh Childress

2003 - Chris Kaman

2002 - Dajuan Wagner

2001 - Shane Battier

2000 - DeMarr Johnson

 

At least this group only had 4 busts.  How about the previous decade, in which you had more seasoned players coming out of college?

 

1999 - Wally Szczerbiak

1998 - Robert "Tractor" Traylor 

1997 - Ron Mercer

1996 - Antoine Walker

1995 - Bryant "Big Country" Reeves

1994 - Sharone Wright

1993 - Calbert Chaney 

1992 - Tom Gugliotta

1991 - Doug Smith

1990 - Felton Spencer

 

So that's a 30 year snapshot from 1990 - 2019.

There's about a 40% chance that we're going to draft a bust at #6.

In a draft that isn't supposed to be that talented, that percentage may be worse.

 

Either move up in this draft, or trade that pick for a vet.

Yo thanks for this post -- I went through the same exercise looking at 6-10 draft picks for the past 10 years.  A lot of people get starry eyed looking at prospects because they haven't seen them struggle in the NBA yet, which is why I'm perfectly O.K. if we want to trade this pick to get talented bench players or package it to get a good starter.  Obviously we don't want a 1 year rental, but I wouldn't hesitate to shed the pick for a good player with 2+ years left on their contract.  We have a young core I believe in, and I don't know how much room we have left on the team for rookies.

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1 minute ago, ShooterSays said:

 

 

I went through the last 30 years.  The #6 pick is going to produce 1 Hall of Famer.  That's it.

There are far more guys who were flat out busts, than guys who were even solid starters.

9 minutes ago, bleachkit said:

What if the player you like falls to #6? Your philosophy of trading out of the pick no matter what, merely because it's #6 is not rational.

In a weak draft, the talented players hardly ever fall.  Even the people who were kind of sour on LaMelo Ball aren't stupid enough to let him go past #4.  I would say the same about Wiseman too.

The historical data tells you all you need to know. You're playing with absolute fire with that #6 pick.  And you still haven't answered the two questions I posed.

Of the guys who are projected to go #6, can they (1) become a rookie starter?  or (2) be a rotation player that can play 20 min a night?

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1 minute ago, TheNorthCydeRises said:

I went through the last 30 years.  The #6 pick is going to produce 1 Hall of Famer.  That's it.

There are far more guys who were flat out busts, than guys who were even solid starters.

In a weak draft, the talented players hardly ever fall.  Even the people who were kind of sour on LaMelo Ball aren't stupid enough to let him go past #4.  I would say the same about Wiseman too.

The historical data tells you all you need to know. You're playing with absolute fire with that #6 pick.  And you still haven't answered the two questions I posed.

Of the guys who are projected to go #6, can they (1) become a rookie starter?  or (2) be a rotation player that can play 20 min a night?

I think a guy like Haliburton or Toppin could absolutely come in and contribute right away.

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2 minutes ago, Sothron said:

That's kind of a false equivalency. The #6 pick doesn't have  magic powers to make anyone drafted there turn out to be a bust. If Kobe was drafted #6 does he suddenly become a bust?

I think the better way to say it is that the probability of finding a star player at #6 is low.   An Allstar is lower.  A superstar is even lower. 

That's why the top 2 picks of any draft are so valued.   BUT.. #6 is better than #15.

 

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8 minutes ago, TheNorthCydeRises said:

I went through the last 30 years.  The #6 pick is going to produce 1 Hall of Famer.  That's it.

There are far more guys who were flat out busts, than guys who were even solid starters.

In a weak draft, the talented players hardly ever fall.  Even the people who were kind of sour on LaMelo Ball aren't stupid enough to let him go past #4.  I would say the same about Wiseman too.

The historical data tells you all you need to know. You're playing with absolute fire with that #6 pick.  And you still haven't answered the two questions I posed.

Of the guys who are projected to go #6, can they (1) become a rookie starter?  or (2) be a rotation player that can play 20 min a night?

This is an exercise in Futility

 

#7 picks the last 30 years:

2019 Coby White, North Carolina – Chicago Bulls
2018 Wendell Carter Jr., Duke – Chicago Bulls
2017 Lauri Markkanen, Arizona – Minnesota Timberwolves
2016 Jamal Murray, Kentucky – Denver Nuggets
2015 Emmanuel Mudiay, Guangdong Tigers – Denver Nuggets
2014 Julius Randle, Kentucky – Los Angeles Lakers
2013 Ben McLemore, Kansas – Sacramento Kings
2012 Harrison Barnes, North Carolina – Golden State Warriors
2011 Bismack Biyombo, Congo – Sacramento Kings
2010 Greg Monroe, Georgetown – Detroit Pistons

2009 Stephen Curry, Davidson – Golden State Warriors
2008 Eric Gordon, Indiana – L.A. Clippers
2007 Corey Brewer, Florida – Minnesota Timberwolves
2006 Randy Foye, Villanova – Boston Celtics
2005 Charlie Villanueva, Connecticut – Toronto Raptors
2004 Luol Deng, Duke – Phoenix Suns
2003 Kirk Hinrich, Kansas – Chicago Bulls
2002 Nene Hilario, Brazil – New York
2001 Eddie Griffin, Seton Hall – New Jersey
2000 Chris Mihm, Texas – Chicago Bulls

1999 Richard Hamilton, Connecticut – Washington Wizards
1998 Jason Williams, Florida – Sacramento Kings
1997 Tim Thomas, Villanova – New Jersey
1996 Lorenzen Wright, Memphis – L.A. Clippers
1995 Damon Stoudamire, Arizona – Toronto Raptors
1994 Lamond Murray, California – L.A. Clippers
1993 Bobby Hurley, Duke – Sacramento Kings
1992 Walt Williams, Maryland – Sacramento Kings
1991 Luc Longley, New Mexico – Minnesota Timberwolves
1990 Lionel Simmons, La Salle – Sacramento Kings

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3 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

This is an exercise in Futility

 

#7 picks the last 30 years:

2019 Coby White, North Carolina – Chicago Bulls
2018 Wendell Carter Jr., Duke – Chicago Bulls
2017 Lauri Markkanen, Arizona – Minnesota Timberwolves
2016 Jamal Murray, Kentucky – Denver Nuggets
2015 Emmanuel Mudiay, Guangdong Tigers – Denver Nuggets
2014 Julius Randle, Kentucky – Los Angeles Lakers
2013 Ben McLemore, Kansas – Sacramento Kings
2012 Harrison Barnes, North Carolina – Golden State Warriors
2011 Bismack Biyombo, Congo – Sacramento Kings
2010 Greg Monroe, Georgetown – Detroit Pistons

2009 Stephen Curry, Davidson – Golden State Warriors
2008 Eric Gordon, Indiana – L.A. Clippers
2007 Corey Brewer, Florida – Minnesota Timberwolves
2006 Randy Foye, Villanova – Boston Celtics
2005 Charlie Villanueva, Connecticut – Toronto Raptors
2004 Luol Deng, Duke – Phoenix Suns
2003 Kirk Hinrich, Kansas – Chicago Bulls
2002 Nene Hilario, Brazil – New York
2001 Eddie Griffin, Seton Hall – New Jersey
2000 Chris Mihm, Texas – Chicago Bulls

1999 Richard Hamilton, Connecticut – Washington Wizards
1998 Jason Williams, Florida – Sacramento Kings
1997 Tim Thomas, Villanova – New Jersey
1996 Lorenzen Wright, Memphis – L.A. Clippers
1995 Damon Stoudamire, Arizona – Toronto Raptors
1994 Lamond Murray, California – L.A. Clippers
1993 Bobby Hurley, Duke – Sacramento Kings
1992 Walt Williams, Maryland – Sacramento Kings
1991 Luc Longley, New Mexico – Minnesota Timberwolves
1990 Lionel Simmons, La Salle – Sacramento Kings

Doesnt this prove his point? Extremely low chance of getting a solid play look at the list lol

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8 minutes ago, JeffS17 said:

Doesnt this prove his point? Extremely low chance of getting a solid play look at the list lol

He presented it as if #6 is some magical cutoff.

Here's the #2 Picks:

2019 Ja Morant, Murray State – Memphis Grizzlies
2018 Marvin Bagley, Duke – Sacramento Kings
2017 Lonzo Ball, UCLA – Los Angeles Lakers
2016 Brandon Ingram, Duke – Los Angeles Lakers
2015 D’Angelo Russell, Ohio State – Los Angeles Lakers
2014 Jabari Parker, Duke – Milwaukee Bucks
2013 Victor Oladipo, Indiana – Orlando Magic
2012 Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Kentucky – Charlotte Bobcats
2011 Derrick Williams, Arizona – Minnesota Timberwolves
2010 Evan Turner, Ohio State – Philadelphia 76ers

2009 Hasheem Thabeet, Connecticut – Memphis Grizzlies
2008 Michael Beasley, Kansas State – Miami HEAT

2007 Kevin Durant, Texas – Seattle Supersonics
2006 LaMarcus Aldridge, Texas – Chicago Bulls (Draft rights traded to Portland Trail Blazers)
2005 Marvin Williams, North Carolina – Atlanta Hawks
2004 Emeka Okafor, Connecticut – Charlotte Bobcats
2003 Darko Milicic, Serbia & Montenegro – Detroit Pistons
2002 Jay Williams, Duke – Chicago Bulls
2001 Tyson Chandler, Dominguez HS (Calif.) – L.A. Clippers (Draft rights traded to Chicago Bulls)
2000 Stromile Swift, LSU – Vancouver Grizzlies

1999 Steve Francis, Maryland – Vancouver Grizzlies
1998 Mike Bibby, Arizona – Vancouver Grizzlies
1997 Keith Van Horn, Utah – Philadelphia 76ers (Draft rights traded to New Jersey Nets)
1996 Marcus Camby, Massachusetts – Toronto Raptors
1995 Antonio McDyess, Alabama – L.A. Clippers (Draft rights traded to Denver Nuggets)

1994 Jason Kidd, California – Dallas Mavericks
1993 Shawn Bradley, Brigham Young – Philadelphia 76ers
1992 Alonzo Mourning, Georgetown – Charlotte Hornets
1991 Kenny Anderson, Georgia Tech – New Jersey Nets
1990 Gary Payton, Oregon State – Seattle Supersonics

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12 minutes ago, JeffS17 said:

Yo thanks for this post -- I went through the same exercise looking at 6-10 draft picks for the past 10 years.  A lot of people get starry eyed looking at prospects because they haven't seen them struggle in the NBA yet, which is why I'm perfectly O.K. if we want to trade this pick to get talented bench players or package it to get a good starter.  Obviously we don't want a 1 year rental, but I wouldn't hesitate to shed the pick for a good player with 2+ years left on their contract.  We have a young core I believe in, and I don't know how much room we have left on the team for rookies.

 

The guy I want is Buddy Hield.  He's starting his 4 year deal next season, but it's obvious that Luke Walton doesn't like the guy at all, especially his defense.  I would love to see a guy like that alongside an elite passer like Trae.  He was a former #6 pick that has been productive early on in his career.  He'll be a borderline All-Star at best, unless he plays on a playoff level team in which he's averaging high teens - low 20s ppg . . and shooting a good percentage from 3.

 

The rookie version of Hield, may be this guy, who will be taken somewhere near the end of the lottery.  He's my official sleeper of this draft.  He's also a guy that most of these teams wouldn't touch with a top 8 pick because he has ONE skill set ( although it's an elite one ), and his growth potential to be a star player is probably low.

What he probably won't be, is a bust.  He shoots the ball too well to not be a contributor from Day 1.

 

 

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24 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

He presented it as if #6 is some magical cutoff.

Here's the #2 Picks:

2019 Ja Morant, Murray State – Memphis Grizzlies
2018 Marvin Bagley, Duke – Sacramento Kings
2017 Lonzo Ball, UCLA – Los Angeles Lakers
2016 Brandon Ingram, Duke – Los Angeles Lakers
2015 D’Angelo Russell, Ohio State – Los Angeles Lakers
2014 Jabari Parker, Duke – Milwaukee Bucks
2013 Victor Oladipo, Indiana – Orlando Magic
2012 Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Kentucky – Charlotte Bobcats
2011 Derrick Williams, Arizona – Minnesota Timberwolves
2010 Evan Turner, Ohio State – Philadelphia 76ers

2009 Hasheem Thabeet, Connecticut – Memphis Grizzlies
2008 Michael Beasley, Kansas State – Miami HEAT

2007 Kevin Durant, Texas – Seattle Supersonics
2006 LaMarcus Aldridge, Texas – Chicago Bulls (Draft rights traded to Portland Trail Blazers)
2005 Marvin Williams, North Carolina – Atlanta Hawks
2004 Emeka Okafor, Connecticut – Charlotte Bobcats
2003 Darko Milicic, Serbia & Montenegro – Detroit Pistons
2002 Jay Williams, Duke – Chicago Bulls
2001 Tyson Chandler, Dominguez HS (Calif.) – L.A. Clippers (Draft rights traded to Chicago Bulls)
2000 Stromile Swift, LSU – Vancouver Grizzlies

1999 Steve Francis, Maryland – Vancouver Grizzlies
1998 Mike Bibby, Arizona – Vancouver Grizzlies
1997 Keith Van Horn, Utah – Philadelphia 76ers (Draft rights traded to New Jersey Nets)
1996 Marcus Camby, Massachusetts – Toronto Raptors
1995 Antonio McDyess, Alabama – L.A. Clippers (Draft rights traded to Denver Nuggets)

1994 Jason Kidd, California – Dallas Mavericks
1993 Shawn Bradley, Brigham Young – Philadelphia 76ers
1992 Alonzo Mourning, Georgetown – Charlotte Hornets
1991 Kenny Anderson, Georgia Tech – New Jersey Nets
1990 Gary Payton, Oregon State – Seattle Supersonics

Yeah, I think y'all are getting caught up in the specifics -- his point was that drafting is risky -- especially in a weaker draft class with a mid lottery pick -- but everyone is treating the pick as a sacred asset.

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2 minutes ago, JeffS17 said:

Yeah, I think y'all are getting caught up in the specifics -- his point was that drafting is risky -- especially in a weaker draft class with a mid lottery pick -- but everyone is treating the pick as a sacred asset.

The draft has ALWAYS been a crap shoot though, something I think most of us know.

Again, most are not willing to trade the #6 pick for a rental, that is the overriding point.

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4 minutes ago, TheNorthCydeRises said:

 

The guy I want is Buddy Hield.  He's starting his 4 year deal next season, but it's obvious that Luke Walton doesn't like the guy at all, especially his defense.  I would love to see a guy like that alongside an elite passer like Trae.  He was a former #6 pick that has been productive early on in his career.  He'll be a borderline All-Star at best, unless he plays on a playoff level team in which he's averaging high teens - low 20s ppg . . and shooting a good percentage from 3.

 

The rookie version of Hield, may be this guy, who will be taken somewhere near the end of the lottery.  He's my official sleeper of this draft.  He's also a guy that most of these teams wouldn't touch with a top 8 pick because he has ONE skill set ( although it's an elite one ), and his growth potential to be a star player is probably low.

What he probably won't be, is a bust.  He shoots the ball too well to not be a contributor from Day 1.

 

 

I recognize the name from draft boards, but this is probably the first I've REALLY heard of him.  Definitely a good video and I wouldn't be disappointed if we ended up with him, but I don't even try to pretend to know how to scout talent lol I trust Schlenk though.

1 minute ago, JayBirdHawk said:

The draft has ALWAYS been a crap shoot though, something I think most of us know.

Again, most are not willing to trade the #6 pick for a rental, that is the overriding point.

Yeah, fair, I definitely agree with that.

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