Ask Supes

[kg01]

10 minutes ago, TheNorthCydeRises said:

 

The guy I want is Buddy Hield.  He's starting his 4 year deal next season, but it's obvious that Luke Walton doesn't like the guy at all, especially his defense.  I would love to see a guy like that alongside an elite passer like Trae.  He was a former #6 pick that has been productive early on in his career.  He'll be a borderline All-Star at best, unless he plays on a playoff level team in which he's averaging high teens - low 20s ppg . . and shooting a good percentage from 3.

 

The rookie version of Hield, may be this guy, who will be taken somewhere near the end of the lottery.  He's my official sleeper of this draft.  He's also a guy that most of these teams wouldn't touch with a top 8 pick because he has ONE skill set ( although it's an elite one ), and his growth potential to be a star player is probably low.

What he probably won't be, is a bust.  He shoots the ball too well to not be a contributor from Day 1.

 

 

One of supes updates said new sac mgt is keeping hield, trying to get rid of Barnes and maybe bogdanovic.  I imagine Walton will go before hield now.  I think that's the right decision for them fwiw.

[marco102]

1 minute ago, kg01 said:

One of supes updates said new sac mgt is keeping hield, trying to get rid of Barnes and maybe bogdanovic.  I imagine Walton will go before hield now.  I think that's the right decision for them fwiw.

I'd take a flyer on Bogdonovic.

[TheNorthCydeRises]

35 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

He presented it as if #6 is some magical cutoff.

Here's the #2 Picks:

2019 Ja Morant, Murray State – Memphis Grizzlies
2018 Marvin Bagley, Duke – Sacramento Kings
2017 Lonzo Ball, UCLA – Los Angeles Lakers
2016 Brandon Ingram, Duke – Los Angeles Lakers
2015 D’Angelo Russell, Ohio State – Los Angeles Lakers
2014 Jabari Parker, Duke – Milwaukee Bucks
2013 Victor Oladipo, Indiana – Orlando Magic
2012 Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Kentucky – Charlotte Bobcats
2011 Derrick Williams, Arizona – Minnesota Timberwolves
2010 Evan Turner, Ohio State – Philadelphia 76ers

2009 Hasheem Thabeet, Connecticut – Memphis Grizzlies
2008 Michael Beasley, Kansas State – Miami HEAT
2007 Kevin Durant, Texas – Seattle Supersonics
2006 LaMarcus Aldridge, Texas – Chicago Bulls (Draft rights traded to Portland Trail Blazers)
2005 Marvin Williams, North Carolina – Atlanta Hawks
2004 Emeka Okafor, Connecticut – Charlotte Bobcats
2003 Darko Milicic, Serbia & Montenegro – Detroit Pistons
2002 Jay Williams, Duke – Chicago Bulls
2001 Tyson Chandler, Dominguez HS (Calif.) – L.A. Clippers (Draft rights traded to Chicago Bulls)
2000 Stromile Swift, LSU – Vancouver Grizzlies

1999 Steve Francis, Maryland – Vancouver Grizzlies
1998 Mike Bibby, Arizona – Vancouver Grizzlies
1997 Keith Van Horn, Utah – Philadelphia 76ers (Draft rights traded to New Jersey Nets)
1996 Marcus Camby, Massachusetts – Toronto Raptors
1995 Antonio McDyess, Alabama – L.A. Clippers (Draft rights traded to Denver Nuggets)
1994 Jason Kidd, California – Dallas Mavericks
1993 Shawn Bradley, Brigham Young – Philadelphia 76ers
1992 Alonzo Mourning, Georgetown – Charlotte Hornets
1991 Kenny Anderson, Georgia Tech – New Jersey Nets
1990 Gary Payton, Oregon State – Seattle Supersonics

 

The 12 guys in red all made at least 1 All-Star team ( 40% of the group )

4 of those are, or will be in the Hall of Fame.   Morant may be #5.  LaMarcus, who might be #6, is rapidly approaching the 20,000 point mark, in which only 3 guys who have reached that mark, isn't in the Hall of Fame ( Antawn Jamison, Tom Chambers, and Joe Johnson . . eligible in 3 years )

[kg01]

14 minutes ago, marco102 said:

I'd take a flyer on Bogdonovic.

I was on that too but wonder if we can get what he gives outta heurter who's about 5-6 years younger.  I was also surprised to hear bogdanovic is like 27 already.  Not ancient but pretty old considering he's still only a restricted FA.

[TheNorthCydeRises]

1 hour ago, JayBirdHawk said:

This is an exercise in Futility

 

#7 picks the last 30 years:

2019 Coby White, North Carolina – Chicago Bulls
2018 Wendell Carter Jr., Duke – Chicago Bulls
2017 Lauri Markkanen, Arizona – Minnesota Timberwolves
2016 Jamal Murray, Kentucky – Denver Nuggets
2015 Emmanuel Mudiay, Guangdong Tigers – Denver Nuggets
2014 Julius Randle, Kentucky – Los Angeles Lakers
2013 Ben McLemore, Kansas – Sacramento Kings
2012 Harrison Barnes, North Carolina – Golden State Warriors
2011 Bismack Biyombo, Congo – Sacramento Kings
2010 Greg Monroe, Georgetown – Detroit Pistons

2009 Stephen Curry, Davidson – Golden State Warriors
2008 Eric Gordon, Indiana – L.A. Clippers
2007 Corey Brewer, Florida – Minnesota Timberwolves
2006 Randy Foye, Villanova – Boston Celtics
2005 Charlie Villanueva, Connecticut – Toronto Raptors
2004 Luol Deng, Duke – Phoenix Suns
2003 Kirk Hinrich, Kansas – Chicago Bulls
2002 Nene Hilario, Brazil – New York
2001 Eddie Griffin, Seton Hall – New Jersey
2000 Chris Mihm, Texas – Chicago Bulls

1999 Richard Hamilton, Connecticut – Washington Wizards
1998 Jason Williams, Florida – Sacramento Kings
1997 Tim Thomas, Villanova – New Jersey
1996 Lorenzen Wright, Memphis – L.A. Clippers
1995 Damon Stoudamire, Arizona – Toronto Raptors
1994 Lamond Murray, California – L.A. Clippers
1993 Bobby Hurley, Duke – Sacramento Kings
1992 Walt Williams, Maryland – Sacramento Kings
1991 Luc Longley, New Mexico – Minnesota Timberwolves
1990 Lionel Simmons, La Salle – Sacramento Kings

 

Despite a lot of decent role playing starters in this group, only 4 of them made an All-Star team, and only 1 of them will go to the Hall of Fame.

I could've swore that Damon Stoudamire made at least 1 All-Star team, but he didn't.  

 

 

[marco102]

1 minute ago, kg01 said:

I was on that too but wonder if we can get what he gives outta heurter who's about 5-6 years younger.  I was also surprised to hear bogdanovic is like 27 already.  Not ancient but pretty old considering he's still only a restricted FA.

He could be a nice vet to add. No doubt we could get the same out of Huerter.

[TheNorthCydeRises]

1 hour ago, Sothron said:

That's kind of a false equivalency. The #6 pick doesn't have  magic powers to make anyone drafted there turn out to be a bust. If Kobe was drafted #6 does he suddenly become a bust?

 

It's the circumstances of why a player is drafted 6, compared to the other spots.

Look at the 2007 draft.  All of the mystery of that draft surrounded Yi.   Greg Oden and Durant were the consensus top 2 picks.  We had to decide if we wanted a center ( Horford ) a PG ( Conley ), or take a chance on the long international player with supposedly the great all around skill set ( Yi ).  Also, you had Jeff Green in that draft, who people though would be a solid player from day 1, seeing that he was an upperclassman coming from Georgetown.

We choose Horford at 3.  Memphis chooses Conley at 4.  Boston was dead set at taking Green at 5.

Now it's Milwaukee's turn.  They already have an all-star in Michael Redd. They have a former #1 pick in Andrew Bogut. They have Mo Williams.  But they're also the worst defensive team in the league.  Corey Brewer, Horford's teammate, is staring them right in the face at #6.  Horford's other teammate, Joakim Noah, is there too.

But Yi's length and skill is just too much to pass on.

That #6 spot has always been a make or break spot for lottery teams, whether it's taking Johnny Flynn with Stephen Curry on the board . . or taking Epke Udoh, when you have Gordon Hayward on the board, who just led Butler to the title game AGAIN.

The NBA scouts and GMs just can't seem to get it right, particularly at that #6 spot.  And it's getting worse now, because they have to evaluate young talent after only seeing them for 1 or 2 years.

[TheNorthCydeRises]

39 minutes ago, TheNorthCydeRises said:

 

The 12 guys in red all made at least 1 All-Star team ( 40% of the group )

4 of those are, or will be in the Hall of Fame.   Morant may be #5.  LaMarcus, who might be #6, is rapidly approaching the 20,000 point mark, in which only 3 guys who have reached that mark, isn't in the Hall of Fame ( Antawn Jamison, Tom Chambers, and Joe Johnson . . eligible in 3 years )

11 guys on the All-Star team . . . I'm propping up Morant just a tad too fast, although he deserved consideration, The West is loaded, to he may or may not get there next season, even if he balls out.

[Diesel]

Word on the street is that we talked to Boston about trading our #6 for their 3 1st round picks?

Yuck.

Please block Danny Ainge's number. 

[Diesel]

This rumor about Jrue Holliday to Atlanta is all over the place. International news.  There's a leak...

I wouldn't be surprised to see that the deal has already been done with a handshake contingent who is available during the draft. 

I just hope we aren't given them Collins/#6 or any of the other foolishness that has been floated. 

 

[parfait]

Hey @NBASupesand @thecampster, it's been pretty quiet lately. Is it the calm before the storm, or are you both under gag orders from your sources as we get closer to crunch time?

[bleachkit]

2 hours ago, parfait said:

Hey @NBASupesand @thecampster, it's been pretty quiet lately. Is it the calm before the storm, or are you both under gag orders from your sources as we get closer to crunch time?

It's a fluid situation. It's not like what is going to happen is always pre-determined.

[NBASupes]

1 hour ago, bleachkit said:

It's a fluid situation. It's not like what is going to happen is always pre-determined.

You said it best 

[kg01]

7 hours ago, Diesel said:

Word on the street is that we talked to Boston about trading our #6 for their 3 1st round picks?

Yuck.

Please block Danny Ainge's number. 

That's not "word on the street".  That's "what BOS needs to happen".

Naturally, that's what the eggsperts say we should do.  Ridiculous.

What a horrid deal that would be.

[Gray Mule]

This year's draft picks are all at a disadvantage.  All of them had their season end much too early.  In years past, prospects moved up and down the list, depending how their season went.

Hawks have #6 this fall.  If we keep and take this pick, we must select from the information available.  We know what is needed most and will know, only when our turn to draft comes, who is available.

Tis said that this is a very weak draft.  If they had played a full season things might have been different.  Where any player is selected in the draft has no guarantee about what kind of season that he will have.  Players have slipped all the way down to the second round and became solid starters.

Others have been drafted high in the 1st round and never made a big splash.  The draft is always a crap shoot.  The GM and company consider their needs, the known facts of the players available, then make their choice.  Travis has been very good.  

Suddenly, a week from now, so many moves will be made in the NBA.  Hawks have the most wiggle room in their $$$ payroll.  From the east and from the west comes trade offers.  Travis considers.  Trade now or wait for free agency in a short breath away?  And, while we consider all this, the draft occurs.

In 6 weeks, the new season will be upon us.  Time flies when you're having fun!  You ready ?

[Gray Mule]

Supes:  Last I heard, the Hawks were working on a new contract for Skal.  Any news \ update?

We read all sorts of rumors that the Hawks are all set to trade.  But, no mention of Skal.  He's our secret weapon that is all but forgotten by the average NBA fan.  

Skal and Bruno and Dewayne and Clint and John.  Consider these big men.  Now, at the beginning of last season, after the first three games, one of these big men was available. Collins suspended.   Bruno a rookie.  Hurting!  Ugh!  

[AHF]

From 1988-2017*, here is how I break out the #6 overall picks:

All-NBA 2  6.7%

All-Star 5  16.7%

Plus Starter 3  10%

Starter / Plus 6th Man 6  20%

Rotation 6  20%

Bust 8  26.7%

 

That is actually a reasonably attractive profile for a team in our position.  Historically drafting at this spot there are almost equal odds of getting an All-Star+ to getting someone who can't contribute for years to a team's rotation.

For us, TS needs to see how he feels about the guys who will be available at 6 and if there is someone he is excited about.  The board in a particular highly outweighs the importance of the historical numbers.  For example, historical numbers do not appropriately convey the upside / risk of the #1 overall pick this year at all.  Whoever is picked there will be much more highly tilted to risk than upside compared to the historical norms.   Depending on TS's view, however, there may be a guy or two that could be available at 6 that he thinks compares favorably with historical outcomes at the #6 spot.

* I did not include the 2018 and 2019 drafts because that is too early in a player's career to draw a conclusion.  Probably too early to use 2016 and 2017 as well but I did.

[mrhonline]

@Gray Mule, Skal's cap hold ($7M) is well above what he'll likely get on a new contract, so I would expect we'll hear word of his re-signing pretty early on in the offseason.

[deester11]

So, I just saw another scenario where the Hawks trade with the Celtics.  We somehow get Gordon Hayward, but we'll give up #6, Cam, Huerter or Hunter.  I say H3ll to the nah!  Wouldn't we think Cam is a non-starter?

[macdaddy]

Just now, deester11 said:

So, I just saw another scenario where the Hawks trade with the Celtics.  We somehow get Gordon Hayward, but we'll give up #6, Cam, Huerter or Hunter.  I say H3ll to the nah!  Wouldn't we think Cam is a non-starter?

this is just typical Boston bs.   I don't believe we are trading any of the young 5 guys.  only possibility is maybe Huerter but we'd see a serious player coming back.