Hawks made it to the Quarter Turn of the season....

[REHawksFan]

The Hawks have now played 25% of their season and sit at 9-9. There have been good moments and cringe-worthy moments. Elite performances and WTF performances. We even had some locker room drama.  So overall a jam packed 18 games. 

First, let’s mention that the Hawks have benefited from opponents missing some key pieces. They played the Wolves without KAT twice, the 76ers with Simmons and the majority of their bench, and the Clips without their 2 stars and Pat Beverly. All wins where the Hawks took advantage of shorthanded squads. 

With that said, I’m not apologizing for any of those wins. You play who you play and that’s that. Especially when you consider that the Hawks have dealt with their own injury issues. Consider this: the Hawks’ 2 deep top 9 players (Trae, Huerter, Hunter, Collins, Capela, Reddish, Bogie, Gallo, and Rondo) have missed a combined 39 games or 24% of the potential games. If you add in OO and Dunn as the 11^th and 12^th players (I’m assuming Solo is 10^th), the total goes up to 71 games missed or 33% of the season. So yeah, Hawks have dealt with some injuries.

Now, in regards to the record, I don’t think it’s a stretch to say that, despite missing a handful of players, the Hawks probably should be sitting at 11-7 or maybe even 12-6.  I know, coulda, shoulda, woulda and all that, but indulge me for just a minute.

1.       Against the mediocre Cavs at home, the Hawks were leading by 15 midway through the 3^rd quarter but managed only 24 points (while allowing 44 pts) over the final 18 minutes to lose by 5;

2.       The very next game vs the Knicks, the Hawks led by 15 with less than 5:00 remaining in the 3^rd quarter but managed only 20 points in the 4^th and lose by 5 pts.

3.       The Hawks didn’t blow any leads vs the lousy Hornets in the next two games but basically didn’t show up to play in either game. The lousy Hornets won each game pretty handily.

4.       Last night, the Hawks faced a legit Nets team with their Big 3 and went toe to toe with them all game but squandered chance after chance late in the game and in OT to make that winning play. That’s the second time this season they haven’t found a way to beat the Nets in a close game. It happens, but you’d like to think they should split those.

5.       To be fair, I must also mention that the Hawks beat the Pistons last week in a game they had no business winning. That’s one they “should have” lost. But that's the only one. The other wins have been solid wins if memory serves. 

6.       Overall, I don’t think it’s too far fetched to say they “should have” netted 2-3 more wins over these seven games. Do that and they are sitting either 4 or 6 games above .500 right now. 

Hey does anyone notice a theme?  They don’t seem to know how to close out or win games in the 4^th quarter. I guess that makes sense with a club that has combined to win 49 games over the last 2 seasons. But still, you’d hope to close out all of those big leads and beat up on the bad teams you play. Fun fact, the Hawks didn't get their 9th win last year until their 41st game, so they were 9-32. Ouch. Also, after 18 games last year they were 4-14 after starting 2-0 and then going 2-14. Glad those days are seemingly over.   

Anyway, the reason that the lack of these handful of wins hurts so much is that the last 18 games have been played against teams with a combined record of 157-164 while the next 14 games will be played against teams with a combined 133-114 record. Really wish they could have "made hay" against that relatively light schedule. This next stretch of games is TOUGH. Sure would be nice to be 4 to 6 games above .500 right now, wouldn’t it?

On an individual level, just going to touch on three guys that I think are the most important for Hawks success.

First, Trae Young is the leader and best player on this team. Despite what some of the whiners think, he has to do Trae things for this team to win. Trae leads the team avg 26.2 pts on 18.1 att/g which pretty dang efficient (1.45 pps). But those avg don't tell the whole story.  Consider:

• Trae in 9 Wins:  32.0 pts on 18.7 shots / PPS of 1.714 / Ast 7.8 per gm / 48.8 FG% / 47.6 3PT%
• Trae in 8 Losses:  19.6 pts on 17.5 shots / PPS of 1.121 / Ast 10.0 per gm / 32.1 FG% / 16.7 3PT%

The evidence is clear, Trae has to be an efficient scorer if they want to win consistently.  Getting his teammates involved is fine, but when he's avg. 10.0 assists but shooting poorly they lose. The formula for winning is Trae putting up 30ish pts and getting 7-9 ast.  That will remain the case until Hunter (or someone else) gets to the point where he can consistently carry the team in Trae's stead.  

The biggest surprise on the team, for me, is Hunter (nod to Capela in a close 2nd).  He's just emerged as a legit future 2nd option.  If he keeps this up, he could be that 2nd superstar the team needs. Looooooong way to go though.

• Optimus:  17.9 pts on 11.9 shots / PPS of 1.504 / 5.6 reb / 2.3 ast / 51.7 FG% / 37.5 3PT%

I'd really like to see him get those attempts up to 15-16 per game to see if the efficiency stays the same. He's elite right now in efficiency.

Now to Capela, what can we say.  HUGE impact on the glass (2nd in NBA at 14.5 per game) and around the rim.  But just as important, he's been the anchor we need defensively.  Lots of effort and rim protection from him. Huge addition for sure.  

• 13.7 pts on 10.5 shots / PPS of 1.035 / 14.52 reb / 2.3 blocks / 55.7 FG%

Obviously, his offense is more of a bonus. His value, imo, is cleaning the glass and defending the rim.  And he's been doing that at a dang high level these first 18 games (he's played 15). I feel I should add the downside to Capela is his FT shooting which is a definite liability. I know last night the issue was fatigue, but in general, when you shoot 54.5% from the line, it's REALLY hard to have you out there in a close and late situation.  

Overall, I'm happy the team is having some success but can't help but wonder what could have been had they just held on to those late leads and found a way to win 3 or 4 more games during the "easy" part of the schedule.  C'est la vie 

 

 

[JayBirdHawk]

Next 18 games as follows:

What I want to see:  Consistency and overall team health.  I would love for us to have a game with no minutes restrictions for all those that play.

Trae: regain that floater touch, limit TOs, keep up a consistent effort on defense

Huerter: I love the 4th quarter heroics, but we need you for the 1st 3

Reddish: Slow down on offense, maintain defensive principals

Hunter/Collins/Capela: I like what they are giving us on both ends of the floor

Gallinari:  Please stay healthy

Bog/Dunni: Get back soon and stay healthy

Rondo: I'm disappointed so far, 

Okongwu: Needs minutes

Goodwin: Stay ready

Hill/Snell: hopefully with other guys getting healthy, they'll see less minutes

Bruno/Knight/Mays: To the GLeague

 

Lack of any real practice is killer for the young players, but nothing to be done.  Remember Pierce said - those who can't keep up will be left behind with the shortened season and crunched schedule.

 

[frosgrim]

@REHawksFan Great write-up, but I think we should add the team added several key pieces over the COVID-19 period, to which I'm including Capela. With any team, adding as much as the Hawks have, you'd expect them to struggle with chemistry on and off court.  Add-in the lack of practice (see @JayBirdHawk) and you get the inconsistency we are seeing from the team.  Being at .500 is exactly where I thought they would be.  The next 20 games will start to tell us where the team is in terms of developing chemistry, a second scoring option, and health. If all of those develop, then we likely are looking at a .600 club, lose on one of those, then stay at .500, and if on all three, sub-.500. 

@JayBirdHawk I completely agree with how you see the next stages of development.  For me, Reddish is the key to puzzle. IF he gets the game to slow down and his confidence goes up, he becomes that true second option.  Hunter is wonderful at what he is, but I just don't see the get a basket when it is needed skill-set that Trae and, potentially Reddish, have. That isn't to say Hunter isn't part of the winning solution, he is, but just not that secondary go get it guy. 

Overall, I'm happy to see the Hawks starting to figure it out. There is a long way to go to be a 50+ win team, but they are at least showing potential to get there. 

On a personal note, now that international travel is canceled for my organization, I actually get to watch games. One of the few nice consequences of this damn pandemic. 

[JayBirdHawk]

32 minutes ago, frosgrim said:

For me, Reddish is the key to puzzle. IF he gets the game to slow down and his confidence goes up, he becomes that true second option.  Hunter is wonderful at what he is, but I just don't see the get a basket when it is needed skill-set that Trae and, potentially Reddish, have. That isn't to say Hunter isn't part of the winning solution, he is, but just not that secondary go get it guy. 

I will disagree somewhat with your take on Hunter, he has shown he can get you a bucket when needed in a variety of ways granted it's a very small sample size. He has become adept at driving to the basket and gettimg the shot or getting to the foul line, or pulling up for a 3, pump fake 1 dribble shoot. The next step would be to make a play for someone else when those avenues close. 

Having said that, to become a true #2, wether him or Reddish, you have to be able to do that when defenses focus on stopping you. They're not yet a focal point of defenses so they're playing free ball right now. Cam would need to show the consistency that Hunter has so far to be in the discussion right now.

 

[Buzzard]

Due to the rash of injuries, I am good with where we are at this point. Its going to be tough staying at .500 for the next 18 games though if we don't become more consistent. Consistency with Trae is seriously needed given how up and down Rondo and Goodwin are. Huerter and Reddish is sorely needed with Bogi and Dunn out. Gallinari needs to stay healthy and start playing 20 or more minutes.

Like I said, if not for the injuries this team would be above .500. So .500 with them is acceptable. This upcoming part of the season is tough though.

Go Hawks!

[Peoriabird]

It continues to amaze me how some posters can watch Trae and Hunter play and conclude that Trae is far superior to Hunter with regards to initiating the offense.  I personally think that Hunter is an excellent facilitator and certainly more consistently good at it than Trae. Now Trae is a better passer no doubt but Trae make way more poor decisions that Hunter and it's not even close.

[JeffS17]

2 minutes ago, Peoriabird said:

It continues to amaze me how some posters can watch Trae and Hunter play and conclude that Trae is far superior to Hunter with regards to initiating the offense.  I personally think that Hunter is an excellent facilitator and certainly more consistently good at it than Trae. Now Trae is a better passer no doubt but Trae make way more poor decisions that Hunter and it's not even close.

Of course he makes more poor decsions -- he's making MORE decisions because hes the primary ball handler.  Hunter has been looking good lately, but don't get ahead of yourself and think he could actually run the offense to anywhere near the level Trae can right now.  There's a reason Trae is bad on defense but routinely leads the team in +/-

[Peoriabird]

1 minute ago, JeffS17 said:

Of course he makes more poor decsions -- he's making MORE decisions because hes the primary ball handler.  Hunter has been looking good lately, but don't get ahead of yourself and think he could actually run the offense to anywhere near the level Trae can right now.  There's a reason Trae is bad on defense but routinely leads the team in +/-

Lebron and a lot of other players handle the load more than others... That should make your decision making poorer. We are talking percentage.  Dre almost never makes a poor decision. A high percentage of Trae decisions are poor!

[JayBirdHawk]

21 minutes ago, JeffS17 said:

Of course he makes more poor decsions -- he's making MORE decisions......

......and every teams focus is geared to stopping him. No one else on this team has that to deal with night in night out.

I hope this thread doesn't get derailed with 'who is the best player'

[hawkman]

7 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

......and every teams focus is geared to stopping him. No one else on this team has that to deal with night in night out.

I hope this thread doesn't get derailed with 'who is the best player'

Too late. When we start arguing if Hunter or Trae should initiate the offense you know this thread has already gone off the rails.

[RedDawg#8]

1 hour ago, JayBirdHawk said:

I will disagree somewhat with your take on Hunter, he has shown he can get you a bucket when needed in a variety of ways granted it's a very small sample size. He has become adept at driving to the basket and gettimg the shot or getting to the foul line, or pulling up for a 3, pump fake 1 dribble shoot. The next step would be to make a play for someone else when those avenues close. 

Having said that, to become a true #2, wether him or Reddish, you have to be able to do that when defenses focus on stopping you. They're not yet a focal point of defenses so they're playing free ball right now. Cam would need to show the consistency that Hunter has so far to be in the discussion right now.

 

https://www.theringer.com/nba/2021/1/27/22252218/atlanta-hawks-deandre-hunter-trae-young

 

Great write up on what Dre has been giving us so far this season

[REHawksFan]

1 hour ago, JayBirdHawk said:

......and every teams focus is geared to stopping him. No one else on this team has that to deal with night in night out.

I hope this thread doesn't get derailed with 'who is the best player'

Yep. There's only one player that team's actually game plan to try and stop and that's Trae. 

Now with that said, moving on. 

 

I like your player list of needs for the next set of games. IMO, we gonna need Cam to play under control, Clint and Gallo to stay healthy, and Hunter to up that FGA just a bit.  If they do that, I think they can hang with the best and hopefully stay around .500 until the schedule eases back up.  

[macdaddy]

So if you told me at the outset that we'd be 9-9 and basically top 10 in the league in offensive, defensive and net rating, with Gallo, Rondo, Bogi, Dunn mostly out,  I'd be very happy.   

[Peoriabird]

Sounds like the majority of fans are happy with the .500 record. Happy with the loss last night because the team was competitive and can explain why the team lost to non playoff teams early using commonly used explanations such as youth,injuries, trap games,back to back, chemistry etc.  Almost at the 20 mark where the chemistry excuse will disappear hopefully the next will be injuries.  Then we'll be down to 3.

[JayBirdHawk]

Good Stuff in this one.  Lines up with what I posted above.

 

 

Quote

“I really admire what Lloyd (Pierce)’s doing,” Nets coach Steve Nash said. “This is a tough matchup for us. They stretch you out. They space the floor. They put the ball in players’ hands and give them some freedom of confidence but within a structure. It’s very difficult to guard. They have a little bit of diversity in their offense. They play hard. They got length. Lloyd is a great young coach and only getting better. The Hawks are really lucky to have him.”

Irving, unprompted, said, “This is a good Hawks team, and we could have folded at any point in the fourth quarter.”

 

[RedDawg#8]

1 minute ago, JayBirdHawk said:

Good Stuff in this one.  Lines up with what I posted above.

 

 

 

Great article. Me finally subscribing was the best decision I could have made. No slight to the AJC as they have gotten better, but the Athletic's content is still ahead of them.

[JayBirdHawk]

1 minute ago, RedDawg#8 said:

Great article. Me finally subscribing was the best decision I could have made. No slight to the AJC as they have gotten better, but the Athletic's content is still ahead of them.

Covid lockdown and no games got me to subscribe.  I did when they had a special. 

[RedDawg#8]

1 hour ago, Peoriabird said:

Sounds like the majority of fans are happy with the .500 record. Happy with the loss last night because the team was competitive and can explain why the team lost to non playoff teams early using commonly used explanations such as youth,injuries, trap games,back to back, chemistry etc.  Almost at the 20 mark where the chemistry excuse will disappear hopefully the next will be injuries.  Then we'll be down to 3.

Happy and content are different vibes.

We are where we should be based on expectations before the season. If we won every game that we gave away, we would be number 1 in the East, which while excellent, is not what any of us would have predicted.

Its the NBA, not college football. You can lose games, a lot of them actually, and still find yourself in the mix.

I have laid out our path the close the first half of the schedule and we are where we should be. A long winning streak wont come for while looking the games ahead.

We very well could fall 3 games under .500 here soon, but by the break, we should be a couple game over. And that's just being objective. It aint got nothing to do with LP and his coaching/rotations or Trae's turnovers.  Just plain out objectivity.

 

9 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

Covid lockdown and no games got me to subscribe.  I did when they had a special. 

Same!

[Peoriabird]

31 minutes ago, RedDawg#8 said:

Happy and content are different vibes.

We are where we should be based on expectations before the season. If we won every game that we gave away, we would be number 1 in the East, which while excellent, is not what any of us would have predicted.

Its the NBA, not college football. You can lose games, a lot of them actually, and still find yourself in the mix.

I have laid out our path the close the first half of the schedule and we are where we should be. A long winning streak wont come for while looking the games ahead.

We very well could fall 3 games under .500 here soon, but by the break, we should be a couple game over. And that's just being objective. It aint got nothing to do with LP and his coaching/rotations or Trae's turnovers.  Just plain out objectivity.

 

When do the expectations go up then? Cause it sounds like you are content with a middling team that can lose to anybody.  Or do you just keep them low to avoid feelings of disappoint or something like that?

[AHF]

1 hour ago, Peoriabird said:

When do the expectations go up then? Cause it sounds like you are content with a middling team that can lose to anybody.  Or do you just keep them low to avoid feelings of disappoint or something like that?

Last year the expectation was being in the lottery.  This year the expectation is to be in the playoffs.  Big change.