Is there a hard reality Check Coming???

[AHF]

When you look at contributions some of them or more role dependent than others.  Success as a plus one-on-one defender is not particularly role or context dependent.  Rebounding isn't particularly context dependent.  Passing ability and vision isn't particularly context dependent.  Now the numbers that come out may vary depending on context (putting a strong rebounding big next to an elite rebounding big is going to mean fewer opportunities for at least one of them) but they aren't so dependent on role as raw assist and scoring numbers which are driven by usage and can change dramatically depending on the role a player is asked to fill.

Whether DM can be an All-Star is up in the air for me.  But his ability to contribute as a defender, rebounder, and passer is not, imo.  He has the hard data as an elite contributor in those areas as a supporting wing and as a lead guard.  So I think there is a very strong baseline we should feel confident we will see from him.

[RedDawg#8]

2 hours ago, AHF said:

When you look at contributions some of them or more role dependent than others.  Success as a plus one-on-one defender is not particularly role or context dependent.  Rebounding isn't particularly context dependent.  Passing ability and vision isn't particularly context dependent.  Now the numbers that come out may vary depending on context (putting a strong rebounding big next to an elite rebounding big is going to mean fewer opportunities for at least one of them) but they aren't so dependent on role as raw assist and scoring numbers which are driven by usage and can change dramatically depending on the role a player is asked to fill.

Whether DM can be an All-Star is up in the air for me.  But his ability to contribute as a defender, rebounder, and passer is not, imo.  He has the hard data as an elite contributor in those areas as a supporting wing and as a lead guard.  So I think there is a very strong baseline we should feel confident we will see from him.

What you said!

[sturt]

5 hours ago, macdaddy said:

He just lacks physical ability.   But if you don't know how to play D then all the ability in the world won't help. 

Theoretically, can a player learn how to play D, or do you believe it's all instinct? Interested in your perspective.

[RedDawg#8]

1 minute ago, sturt said:

Theoretically, can a player learn how to play D, or do you believe it's all instinct? Interested in your perspective.

Not directed towards me at all but:

Some people have natural instincts defensively, sure. But it’s my opinion that UNTIL FATHER TIME SLOWS YOU DOWN, most players will naturally improve on defense throughout the duration of their careers. Defense is so much about awareness and IQ, and more experience lends itself to improvement in those areas. But as is the case with anyone, once your body slows down, you can know where to be all you want, and just not be able to get there.

The other variable is effort, but that wasn’t an option given. Trae has locked up guys twice his size on single possessions due to pure effort before. That’s where coaching and culture come in to play. I doubt any of guys could play for Memphis or Miami and not automatically be a better defender. There is too much accountability in those locker rooms not to.

[TheNorthCydeRises]

19 hours ago, Diesel said:

Listening to a podcast today...

A "basketball expert" laid out how Dejounte Murray is Overrated. In essence he said that last year was a fluke... and that Murray cannot fill the "Kevin Huerter" role and how our offense will suffer because we no longer have Huerter. 

 

Question...

Is there a harsh reality check coming?

The reality check is that people are going to realize just how good of a spot up shooter Trae Young really is.

[Diesel]

3 hours ago, sturt said:

Theoretically, can a player learn how to play D, or do you believe it's all instinct? Interested in your perspective.

Every player does learn how to play D.   It's not really instinct.   I think it's "second nature".   i.e. the more you study, the better you become at it. 

The things that can't be taught, however, are timing, athleticism, and hand/footspeed.

In my opinion, most great shotblockers have been blessed with timing.  I say timing but I mean hand to eye coordination at a high level.  Guys can be tall, guys can be athletic.. however, the shotblockers don't really have to be either, they just have to have timing. 

Athleticism is what some people would call.... "Body Smart".   This is mostly genetic.  I was looking at clips of Brony James on yesterday.  Damn, he's already manly and I think he's like a 10th grader.   But having athleticism is not something that a lot of people will have in aces.  Not everybody can be as athletically gifted as Smoove.   JSmoove is a perfect example of how you can have Athleticism in Spades and how it can make you a helluva basketball player.   Because Smoove wasn't the smartest nor did he work the hardest... but he could make up for shortcomings because he just could get to where he would need to be. 

hand/foot speed and I would say hand and foot smarts are equally important.   I think one of the things that makes Draymond such a good defender is #1, he works on it and has that second nature... but #2 his footspeed /footsmarts is over the top.  If you ever watch him defend, his feet takes him to exactly where he needs to be... a lot of times before the offensive player can get there.   He's not overly athletic but he has those speeds and smarts to go along with the fact that he studies.

 

[JTB]

13 hours ago, swanlee said:

His stats will probably go down but he is exactly the type of player we needed to push our team over the edge and he will be a huge asset.

Murray can go get his own points without relying on Trae like many of the other players. I see Murray easily avg 20 because during those times Trae is out he’s going to get his opportunities to run the show and even with Trae I think he’s more of a willing passer than fans give him credit for.

I believe Trae will defer more now because he knows Murray can get his own shot off and is also a good playmaker where Trae can be setup

[macdaddy]

17 hours ago, sturt said:

Theoretically, can a player learn how to play D, or do you believe it's all instinct? Interested in your perspective.

I think so absolutely.   I mean there's no real way to expect JJ to have been a good defender with just a half of season on college ball and that's it.  I don't really know anything about it but i would say most guys come into the league pretty green on the defensive end and have to learn a lot.   Hunter could barely stay on the court as a rookie because he'd get so many early fouls.  

[RedDawg#8]

13 hours ago, JTB said:

Murray can go get his own points without relying on Trae like many of the other players. I see Murray easily avg 20 because during those times Trae is out he’s going to get his opportunities to run the show and even with Trae I think he’s more of a willing passer than fans give him credit for.

I believe Trae will defer more now because he knows Murray can get his own shot off and is also a good playmaker where Trae can be setup

There are 23.8 Pts, 8.1 rebounds, and 4.2 Assists up for grabs with just Gallo and Kev alone.

That's not including Lou + Delon, 10.7 pts, 4.5 rebs, 4.3 assists .

I think there is definitely enough room for Murray to get his 20, 8, and 8 while playing next to Trae and leading the bench unit.

Our team will look much different in how we produce offense next year. My only concern is Trae and Murray deferring to one another and not being aggressive. If they both are in attack mode, we will have plenty of scoring/assist opportunities for everyone.

[shakes]

19 hours ago, TheNorthCydeRises said:

The reality check is that people are going to realize just how good of a spot up shooter Trae Young really is.

well I guess that all depends on if Trae makes good on his promise to actually start moving without the ball this season.  

[sillent]

On 8/4/2022 at 9:45 AM, JayBirdHawk said:

I guess the questions are how are we to offset Gallo and Huerter's 3pt shooting:

1. Can JJ and/or Frank K pick up some of the Gallo slack

2. More quality attempts/looks for Hunter and Collins

3. With Murray on board, will Trae have more CnS opportunities instead of pull up 3s.

4. Holiday will need to improve is 3pt percentages 34% as opposed to Huerter's 38% on similar attempts

I think this is one of the biggest slept on facts. Our whole starting 5 could easily average 20 or 100pts per game.

Bogi can do the same off the bench or at the very least give us 15ppg.

We haven't ever had a starting 5 this strong not even in the 60win season.

People are looking for offense from our bench (which will be there) but our biggest concerns was our defense. Our new bench considerably makes that better.

Offense with a player like Trae Young and company is not that big of an issue.

I can definitely see Dre and John taking on bigger roles this yr as well as Clint looking more like his better self since he won't have to be the only/main anchor on defense.

With Murray, Hunter and CC covering head to toe on defense we will be much better in that department. John has already taking steps up and Trae is getting better in the passing lanes and may look better overall as well.

Point is we've gotten way better by losing a lot of our weak defenders. Everybody in the NBA can score (for the most part) but stopping people was our biggest issue.

We now should be way better in that department and even if our bench really struggles we have at least 5 to 6 players we know can get above 20 and can stagger them and give them more opportunities.

Not to mention we have a guy like Dejounte who made the spurs look functional with the group of guys they put on the floor. I think our bench can compete with most of their starters from last yr.

[macdaddy]

I know the plan is to have Trae and/or Murray on the court at all times but just for fun our all bench unit last year was

Delon,Lou,Bogi,Gallo,OO 

This year looks like

AHoliday, Bogi, JHoliday, JJ?, OO

I expect we won't see all bench much if at all.  

[AHF]

54 minutes ago, macdaddy said:

I know the plan is to have Trae and/or Murray on the court at all times but just for fun our all bench unit last year was

Delon,Lou,Bogi,Gallo,OO 

This year looks like

AHoliday, Bogi, JHoliday, JJ?, OO

I expect we won't see all bench much if at all.  

We should not use an "all bench" unit this year.  Should mix and match when starters are resting.

Trae, Bogi, Holiday, JC, OO

AHoliday, DM, Bogi, Hunter, CC

DM, Bogi, Hunter, JJ, CC

Trae, Holiday, Hunter, JC, OO

etc.

[sturt]

9 hours ago, macdaddy said:

have Trae and/or Murray on the court at all times

I know that's what Fields said when asked, but he did couch it in "but it's really up to Nate ultimately."

And it's a good thing, because math demands that 48 minutes be covered at PG, and if it's truly that way, then it ends up that Trae and Murray are on the court at the same time for a grand total of about 1.5 quarters (18 min) if we assume 33 min per game for both (2 x 33 = 66, 66 - 48 = 18).

I don't think that's actually what we want to see, is it? I'm thinking we want them playing together at least 24 min per game, no?

If so, then ADay is going to see about 6-ish minutes most nights, and maybe more depending on the opponent and if it's a back to back.

[Diesel]

28 minutes ago, sturt said:

I know that's what Fields said when asked, but he did couch it in "but it's really up to Nate ultimately."

And it's a good thing, because math demands that 48 minutes be covered at PG, and if it's truly that way, then it ends up that Trae and Murray are on the court at the same time for a grand total of about 1.5 quarters (18 min) if we assume 33 min per game for both (2 x 33 = 66, 66 - 48 = 18).

 

Earlier I did a breakdown of the PG rotation. 

some like 8 minutes to start (together). 

4 minutes with DM

8 Minutes with Trae..

4 minutes with DM 

8 Minutes to close out the half.  (together)

Repeat. 

Altogether, I count 32 minutes on the floor together.   Of course, we may sprinkle in another guards in these minutes...  Because they are not going to play 48 minutes per game. .. but the point is still..  I don't see the 18.

 

 

 

[sturt]

Gave it some thought last night... here's my math, fwiw...

 

 

[sturt]

24 minutes ago, Diesel said:

I don't see the 18.

It helps to look at it visually...

 

[sturt]

Finishing the train of thought... how the rest of the 17 players under or projected-to-be under contract shake-out...

 

 

[TheNorthCydeRises]

4 hours ago, shakes said:

well I guess that all depends on if Trae makes good on his promise to actually start moving without the ball this season.  

The ball also has to find Trae when he's open. Not like Hunter or Bogi were creating a lot of looks for others. 

Murray will solve that problem and get Trae spot up looks from 3.

[AHF]

4 hours ago, Diesel said:

Earlier I did a breakdown of the PG rotation. 

some like 8 minutes to start (together). 

4 minutes with DM

8 Minutes with Trae..

4 minutes with DM 

8 Minutes to close out the half.  (together)

Repeat. 

Altogether, I count 32 minutes on the floor together.   Of course, we may sprinkle in another guards in these minutes...  Because they are not going to play 48 minutes per game. .. but the point is still..  I don't see the 18.

 

 

 

You have 32 minutes being played in a half:

16 minutes together (8+8)

8 with Trae 

8 with DM (4+4)

so your math doesn’t work.

 

if you assume they each play the same 35 minutes they played last year, you could do something like this:

1H

6 minutes together

3 minutes Trae

4 minutes DM

4 minutes together

2 minutes AHoliday

2 minutes Trae

3 minutes together

 

2H

5 minutes together

3 minutes DM

4 minutes Trae

3 minutes together

2 minutes DM

2 minutes AHoliday
5 minutes together

totals:

4 minutes Aaron Holiday only

9 minutes DM only

9 minutes Trae only

26 minutes together

4 total minutes Holiday

35 total minutes Trae & DM