Discussion about Hunter and Trae (split off from insider thread)

[JayBirdHawk]

10 minutes ago, NBASupes said:

@TheNorthCydeRises

 

 

 

Did you listen?

I thought this was actually John Collins saying this...not the 'Host' saying he personally thinks this. 

Playing in a different system actually requires the coach to have a system

[Spud2nique]

13 minutes ago, NBASupes said:

@TheNorthCydeRises

 

 

 

It’s like going to watch Enter the Dragon in the 70’s and watching Return of instead.

 

I realize Bruce Lee whoops in every flick, but gimme the right title to the right movie .

 

I should just be happy JC with us again though huh? 

[JayBirdHawk]

2 minutes ago, Spud2nique said:

How can I be expected to listen to the content when they were too lazy to get the trade right? Whose podcast is this? 
 

 

@Brotha2ThaNite a squawker it seems.

[Spud2nique]

Just now, JayBirdHawk said:

Did you listen?

I thought this was actually John Collins saying this...not the 'Host' saying he personally thinks this. 

Playing in a different system actually requires the coach to have a system

@kg01 lookin svelte and a bit bossy with the Nate folding arms. Oh you fancy I huh…

 

… alrighty then I’m starting to talk $hit to a robot on squawk.. @JayBirdHawk the mama cat ..

[Spud2nique]

5 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

@Brotha2ThaNite a squawker it seems.

I think I know who that is.. 

 

Not names but it rhymes with poops 

[JeffS17]

2 hours ago, JayBirdHawk said:

That's unfortunate. The expectation is to want/expect more from your #4 pick particularly on a team starved for high end talent.

He's just not THAT guy! And that's ok I guess.

It probably should not be our expectation.  He would be an outlier to be really good or all-star level.  He's pretty much right on track for what an average #4 picks end up being (#4 historical picks posted below).  Some complete duds in there and some really good players and some average players.  The '19 draft just wasn't that good (posted below).  RJ went before Hunter and I'd argue Hunter is a better player than him.  

[macdaddy]

42 minutes ago, JeffS17 said:

It probably should not be our expectation.  He would be an outlier to be really good or all-star level.  He's pretty much right on track for what an average #4 picks end up being (#4 historical picks posted below).  Some complete duds in there and some really good players and some average players.  The '19 draft just wasn't that good (posted below).  RJ went before Hunter and I'd argue Hunter is a better player than him.  

Cam was the real whiff in that draft.   The three players after him would have been a lot better for us.  

[AHF]

1 hour ago, JeffS17 said:

It probably should not be our expectation.  He would be an outlier to be really good or all-star level.  He's pretty much right on track for what an average #4 picks end up being (#4 historical picks posted below).  Some complete duds in there and some really good players and some average players.  The '19 draft just wasn't that good (posted below).  RJ went before Hunter and I'd argue Hunter is a better player than him.  

I'm just going to repost what I put on another thread in regards to the weakness of the 2019 draft:

 

The challenge is that among this [weak 2019] draft class:

Hunter ranks 21st in Win Shares

Hunter ranks 40th in Win Shares per 48

Hunter ranks 41st in BPM

Hunter ranks 58th in VORP

 

In terms of raw numbers, Hunter is:

6th in minutes

but:

11th in total points

15th in total rebounds

20th in total assists

28th in FG%

12th in 3pt%

 

So the primary way in which he stands out statistically among his class is in playing time.

 

Note that I fully recognize that the value of his defense is NOT fully captured in any of these numbers.

[JeffS17]

6 minutes ago, AHF said:

I'm just going to repost what I put on another thread in regards to the weakness of the 2019 draft:

 

The challenge is that among this [weak 2019] draft class:

Hunter ranks 21st in Win Shares

Hunter ranks 40th in Win Shares per 48

Hunter ranks 41st in BPM

Hunter ranks 58th in VORP

 

In terms of raw numbers, Hunter is:

6th in minutes

but:

11th in total points

15th in total rebounds

20th in total assists

28th in FG%

12th in 3pt%

 

So the primary way in which he stands out statistically among his class is in playing time.

 

Note that I fully recognize that the value of his defense is NOT fully captured in any of these numbers.

Hunter's usage on offense is pretty low and he's been probably the #1 victim of Nate's tragic offensive philosophies.  It doesn't surprise me the metrics are what they are.  He's a pretty good defender but he hasn't played up to his extension at all.  I won't be that sad if he goes, but I do think Quin could turn him into a nice piece (assuming Hunter is open to be coached).

[AHF]

23 minutes ago, JeffS17 said:

Hunter's usage on offense is pretty low and he's been probably the #1 victim of Nate's tragic offensive philosophies.  It doesn't surprise me the metrics are what they are.  He's a pretty good defender but he hasn't played up to his extension at all.  I won't be that sad if he goes, but I do think Quin could turn him into a nice piece (assuming Hunter is open to be coached).

Low usage is usually accompanied by outstanding efficiency.  That hasn't been the case or he would have much better metrics.  (For reference, he was 11th in TS% last year.)  He would also have better metrics if he grabbed more boards, disrupted more plays on defense, etc.  

When you look beyond scoring, Hunter rates low on the team in pretty much every metric relating to counting stats.  

Passing:  12th in AST%

Rebounding:  14th in TRB%

Stealing:  15th in STL%

Blocks:  12th in BLK%

Taking steal % as an example:

DM steals at a 150% higher rate than Hunter

JJ steals at a 112.5% higher ratethan Hunter

Bey steals at a 87.5% higher rate than Hunter

Bogi steals at a 75% higher rate than Hunter

AJ steals at a 75% higher rate than Hunter

 

This isn't all about Nate's offensive philosophies, imo, but reasonable minds can certainly differ.  If this is primarily about Nate's systems, how much of a jump do you expect to see in Hunter's numbers with Quin in charge?

 

[JeffS17]

30 minutes ago, AHF said:

This isn't all about Nate's offensive philosophies, imo, but reasonable minds can certainly differ.  If this is primarily about Nate's systems, how much of a jump do you expect to see in Hunter's numbers with Quin in charge?

 

I don't really disagree with you at all, was just offering soft counterpoints to the stats.  Hunter has been underwhelming.

[AHF]

Just now, JeffS17 said:

I don't really disagree with you at all, was just offering soft counterpoints to the stats.  Hunter has been underwhelming.

I want to see Hunter bust out.  I just don't have a great deal of confidence that any coaching change is going to do it.  I am pretty confident that if it can happen that Quin is a good candidate to help facilitate that.  Also liked the couple anecdotes from Hunter this offseason (working out during the draft, etc.)  He needs a big improvement going forward to get back on track with what you would expect from a reasonably successful #4 by those metrics.

[macdaddy]

2 hours ago, AHF said:

I want to see Hunter bust out.  I just don't have a great deal of confidence that any coaching change is going to do it.  I am pretty confident that if it can happen that Quin is a good candidate to help facilitate that.  Also liked the couple anecdotes from Hunter this offseason (working out during the draft, etc.)  He needs a big improvement going forward to get back on track with what you would expect from a reasonably successful #4 by those metrics.

He's not going to though.  I think even his biggest supporters will tell you he's not going to.  They just think he's already very good and some of us think he's disappointing.  But his game isn't going to grow a new dimension.  Can he improve?  For sure.  Bust out and be a go to offensive player or all star.  No. 

[JayBirdHawk]

33 minutes ago, macdaddy said:

Bust out and be a go to offensive player or all star.  No. 

I don't even need that, I just need a level of efficiency and consistency on offense with a significant change in his defensive metrics.

[AHF]

37 minutes ago, macdaddy said:

He's not going to though.  I think even his biggest supporters will tell you he's not going to.  They just think he's already very good and some of us think he's disappointing.  But his game isn't going to grow a new dimension.  Can he improve?  For sure.  Bust out and be a go to offensive player or all star.  No. 

All-Star I'm not expecting but I see no reason why he shouldn't be among our top 8 players in most metrics.  There is zero reason he shouldn't be in the top 15 of his own draft class in most metrics.  Consider the competition in both cases.

[MarylandHawk]

14 hours ago, NBASupes said:

Snell had better impact when he was younger. 

Baze had his worst prime years with Trae

So did Prince. 

I won't mention the scrubs because they were washed. 

Kevin had his best year with Sacramento 

Cam had has best year with New York.

Murray had his best year last year with SA

I am waiting for Trae to make players around him better. Al did it every season. 

Embiid is the ONLY player who got worse with Al. Just him. Everyone else got better. Nash can make the same claim, he made everyone around him better. 

Trae’s team with those players on it had better team success with Trae period. There is no debate. And as a side note Cam had his best game on the biggest stage ever playing with guess who, Trae Young. 

[NBASupes]

4 minutes ago, MarylandHawk said:

Trae’s team with those players on it had better team success with Trae period. There is no debate. And as a side note Cam had his best game on the biggest stage ever playing with guess who, Trae Young. 

Huh?

[AHF]

3 minutes ago, NBASupes said:

Huh?

Trae’s teams were dramatically worse when he was off the floor.  Most of those players were noticeably better when on the floor with him.

On Al, he is an elite role player type.  He makes everyone better (granting that it didn’t work great with Embiid).  He takes nothing off the table and fits almost any team.  No argument from me there.

[NBASupes]

4 minutes ago, AHF said:

Trae’s teams were dramatically worse when he was off the floor.  Most of those players were noticeably better when on the floor with him.

On Al, he is an elite role player type.  He makes everyone better (granting that it didn’t work great with Embiid).  He takes nothing off the table and fits almost any team.  No argument from me there.

If we are being honest, we only had a decent PG once without Trae in Delon and he was a terrible fit for our scheme or lack thereof. Is that a testament to Trae or our lack of PGs outside of Trae for that statement. 

That said, it doesn't answer what the poster I replied to said. I am still confused 

[AHF]

16 hours ago, NBASupes said:

If we are being honest, we only had a decent PG once without Trae in Delon and he was a terrible fit for our scheme or lack thereof. Is that a testament to Trae or our lack of PGs outside of Trae for that statement. 

That said, it doesn't answer what the poster I replied to said. I am still confused 

You could make the same argument about the dropoff being huge from Al to his backup but it is obvious to me how much better Trae makes the team offensively (and overall) and how much better Al makes teams on both ends so I don't feel like I need to make a deep dive there.  Especially considering how big the gap was (we had several seasons where  we would have been a top 3 offense with Trae and the worst in the league without him.)

Will have to let Maryland do any further clarification as I just gave my read on his post.