Official Game Thread: 76ers at Hawks -- The Season Finale!

[AHF]

54 minutes ago, KB21 said:

Yep.  You are right, but I'm all about whatever it takes to end this deplorable practice in the NBA forever.

What it takes is a rule change that is announced before a season starts where everyone is aware of the new landscape and new set of rules.  Then people adjust their behavior.  You don't do things a certain way for year after year and suddenly change the rules without any notice.  That is a way to end up in court with owners fighting the league.

A proposal like northcyde made would be one way of doing that which I think would effectively end the type of tanking we see today and instead lead only to some messing around for teams that would prefer to have a shot at the lottery as opposed to being a sacrificial lamb in the playoffs.

[hazer]

35 minutes ago, AHF said:

What it takes is a rule change that is announced before a season starts where everyone is aware of the new landscape and new set of rules.  Then people adjust their behavior.  You don't do things a certain way for year after year and suddenly change the rules without any notice.  That is a way to end up in court with owners fighting the league.

A proposal like northcyde made would be one way of doing that which I think would effectively end the type of tanking we see today and instead lead only to some messing around for teams that would prefer to have a shot at the lottery as opposed to being a sacrificial lamb in the playoffs.

The 14 balls for 14 teams is a great way to go. Would completely eliminate the Memphis, Phoenix, Dallas stuff that just happened. Sure there will still be some “8th down to 9th” tanking going on. But at 30-something wins, would be much more tolerable. Never going to eliminate it completely when draft rewards are involved, but it can be reduced greatly.

[CBAreject]

I say extend the lottery down to the 5th seeds in the playoffs.  Keep it weighted but gradual enough that there’s no great incentive to drop a spot.  5th seeds get a minuscule chance, so no 4th seed team would intentionally lose games to drop to 5th and give up home court.   And at least draw spots 1-5 in the lottery if not more.  

[KB21]

I have a better idea.  Let’s eliminate the draft and come up with a free market solution to this.  

[hazer]

6 minutes ago, KB21 said:

I have a better idea.  Let’s eliminate the draft and come up with a free market solution to this.  

NEVER going to happen. The draft is an “event” that most fans love. 14 ping pong balls, 14 teams, bam.

[CBAreject]

The NBA isn’t a free market.  It’s an organization in whose interests it is that all members remain “competitive” despite differences in resources and luck.  There is an extraordinarily high barrier to entry into this organization such that no team can be allowed to simply fail and be replaced without major problems.  

An example: 

teams 1-3 get 5 balls

teams 4-6 get 4 balls 

teams 7-9 get 3 balls 

teams 10-14 get 2 balls

5th-8th seeds get 1 ball 

draw the top 5-10 spots  

So with this system there is very little incentive to drop down but the truly elite teams aren’t in the lottery 

Edited April 11, 2018 by CBAreject

[AHF]

Just now, hazer said:

NEVER going to happen. The draft is an “event” that most fans love. 14 ping pong balls, 14 teams, bam.

More than the event, it is fundamentally how American pro sports structures their leagues.  Would be a radical change to move to a European model.  You would also be welcoming a fundamentally unfair playing field.  Today, big market teams enjoy substantial advantages in unrestricted free agency but not as much in restricted free agency and not at all in the draft.  Going to a pure free agent market would mean big market teams would have that advantage in every aspect of talent acquisition just like Barcelona, Real Madrid, etc. do in soccer.

[hazer]

3 minutes ago, AHF said:

More than the event, it is fundamentally how American pro sports structures their leagues.  Would be a radical change to move to a European model.  You would also be welcoming a fundamentally unfair playing field.  Today, big market teams enjoy substantial advantages in unrestricted free agency but not as much in restricted free agency and not at all in the draft.  Going to a pure free agent market would mean big market teams would have that advantage in every aspect of talent acquisition just like Barcelona, Real Madrid, etc. do in soccer.

That too...

[AHF]

5 minutes ago, CBAreject said:

The NBA isn’t a free market.  It’s an organization in whose interests it is that all members remain “competitive” despite differences in resources and luck.  There is an extraordinarily high barrier to entry into this organization such that no team can be allowed to simply fail and be replaced without major problems.  

An example: 

teams 1-3 get 5 balls

teams 4-6 get 4 balls 

teams 7-9 get 3 balls 

teams 10-14 get 2 balls

5th-8th seeds get 1 ball 

So with this system there is very little incentive to drop down but the truly elite teams aren’t in the lottery 

Would you have the lottery apply to all spots other than the top 8 teams or only a subset of picks like 1-3 today?

Here is how that system would look:

Draft Slot	# chances	Odds
1	5	9.3%
2	5	9.3%
3	5	9.3%
4	4	7.4%
5	4	7.4%
6	4	7.4%
7	3	5.6%
8	3	5.6%
9	3	5.6%
10	2	3.7%
11	2	3.7%
12	2	3.7%
13	2	3.7%
14	2	3.7%
15	1	1.9%
16	1	1.9%
17	1	1.9%
18	1	1.9%
19	1	1.9%
20	1	1.9%
21	1	1.9%
22	1	1.9%

 

[CBAreject]

7 hours ago, AHF said:

Would you have the lottery apply to all spots other than the top 8 teams or only a subset of picks like 1-3 today?

Here is how that system would look:

Draft Slot	# chances	Odds
1	5	9.3%
2	5	9.3%
3	5	9.3%
4	4	7.4%
5	4	7.4%
6	4	7.4%
7	3	5.6%
8	3	5.6%
9	3	5.6%
10	2	3.7%
11	2	3.7%
12	2	3.7%
13	2	3.7%
14	2	3.7%
15	1	1.9%
16	1	1.9%
17	1	1.9%
18	1	1.9%
19	1	1.9%
20	1	1.9%
21	1	1.9%
22	1	1.9%

 

I’m open.  Just spit-balling here.  I kind of like those odds you ran.  I really do think it cuts down on tanking without sending the #1 pick to the warriors.  

[lethalweapon3]

Milwaukee showing everyone what a real tanking team looks like!

Wait, what?

~lw3

[lethalweapon3]

(Peeks at Minny thread postgame) Yeahhhh I might as well get started.

~lw3

[TheFuzz]

On ‎4‎/‎10‎/‎2018 at 9:36 PM, TheNorthCydeRises said:

We definitely hit on Hardaway Jr, despite him melting down in the playoffs.  We just chose not to re-sign him.

I think Budcox gets a bad rap. They weren't forward thinking at all but they drafted pretty good. You can't hit them all. I didn't care for Payne much, but the idea was good, as were Jenkins, Scott, Moose... yea, they did ok.

[Plainview1981]

So... The team didn't even tank right this year? That's not surprising.

[NBASupes]

59 minutes ago, TheFuzz said:

I think Budcox gets a bad rap. They weren't forward thinking at all but they drafted pretty good. You can't hit them all. I didn't care for Payne much, but the idea was good, as were Jenkins, Scott, Moose... yea, they did ok.

BudCox didn't draft Payne. Ferry dumbass did. 

[AHF]

Still not a fan of the THJr trade.  He exceeded my expectations and we got just over 1 season worth of solid games and two negative value playoff appearances from him for the 15th pick in the draft.

[hazer]

15 minutes ago, AHF said:

Still not a fan of the THJr trade.  He exceeded my expectations and we got just over 1 season worth of solid games and two negative value playoff appearances from him for the 15th pick in the draft.

I’m not an Oubre fan either though.

[AHF]

2 hours ago, hazer said:

I’m not an Oubre fan either though.

I'm not over the moon with him either but they aren't far apart as players (and one remains under team control at a lower cost):

2017-18 age 25 THJr  2.6 win shares, .533% TS%, 31.7% 3pt%, 0.9 VORP, bigger volume scorer

2017-18 age 22 Oubre 3.7 win shares, .534% TS%, 34.1% 3pt%, 0.4 VORP, better defender/rebounder

[ATLien_]

2 hours ago, AHF said:

I'm not over the moon with him either but they aren't far apart as players (and one remains under team control at a lower cost):

2017-18 age 25 THJr  2.6 win shares, .533% TS%, 31.7% 3pt%, 0.9 VORP, bigger volume scorer

2017-18 age 22 Oubre 3.7 win shares, .534% TS%, 34.1% 3pt%, 0.4 VORP, better defender/rebounder

I said they should have taken Bobby Portis as the time, and I still believe I'm right. I believe he's the best of those players. 

2017-2018 age 22 Portis 3.5 win shares .548 TS%, 35.9% 3pt%, 1.0 VORP.  His per is 19.9 this year.  I believe THJ has only eclipsed 15 per once in his career in year 2 with the Hawks. Kelly Oubre is a sub 12 per guy in this his best year and was sub 10 his first two year. 

Avg 13.2 pts and 6.8 boards in 22 minutes. Per 36 he's a 21 and 11 guy. Very useful rotational big that can start or come off the bench. Stretches the floor and rebounds. Good positional defender that can switch on the perimeter, but is not a rim protector.  

The Hawks should put me on their payroll. Or just read the Squawk for free. I told them to take Gorgei Dieng instead of bebe. I said take Gary Harris, I said trade up for Lauri Markannen, John Collins or Donovan Mitchell. We got lucky with John Collins, but he was worth trading up for. It amazing how I can watch videos on draft express and not even watch college basketball and evaluate better than guys who do this for a living. Maybe they know too much about the players. I'm just looking cold and objectively as possible. 

I'm not always right either but good gracious it doesn't seem like rocket science. I had Malik Beasley and Caris Levert ahead of Tauren Prince on my board for the hawks as my realistic 1, 2 or 3 options at pick 12. I thought the other two had more updside and we needed a star offensive player with a aging core.  I projected to Tauren to be a 3&D role player and thought he would be available with the Bembry pick. I still think the other two would be better than Taurean under Bud's coaching, but who you go two makes a huge difference. Brooklyn is a disaster and Malik has 3 quality SG's in front of him in Denver.

Hawks please don't blow this draft.