The Tank Thread

[KB21]

5 hours ago, JTB said:

Yeah well as a fan that’s in between tanking and staying put I’m over it. While I agree with the article and it’s facts it doesn’t matter at this point the tanking process is already in progress.

but what scares me is what’s going on in the east...Celtics are clearly the best young east team we’ve seen in years and those guys are for real and will be around for a long while. Then the bucks go out and add Bledsoe to their young talented team making their roster better and I believe we aren’t done seeing other east teams make moves to get a lot better.

so you know this 2-3 year plan schlenk has stated sounds like a fairy tale. Sure the east is weak right now but what the east will look like in 2-3 years we may find ourselves overmatched....all I can say is I’m not too worried about who we draft , at the end of the day Schlenks plan better work. And perhaps I’m full of it but we need to return to the playoffs next season if we can...like I’ve stated tanking for one year ok...two straight seasons? No sir...If we can’t get to the playoffs and we suck the 2nd year anyways fine just don’t purposely tank like we are now.

2-3 years was always a pipe dream.  

[KB21]

52 minutes ago, NBASupes said:

At end of the day

 

Dennis

Klay

Zion

Collins 

Ayton/Bamba 

 

will compete for NBA titles for the next 15 seasons. 

Zion Williamson — the next overhyped high school/AAU product. Can’t shoot, has weight issues, not tall or long

[Diesel]

On 11/5/2017 at 8:25 AM, kurupt said:

	2016		2015		2014		2013
1	Ben Simmons	1	Karl-Anthony Towns	1	Andrew Wiggins	1	Anthony Bennett
2	Brandon Ingram	2	D'Angelo Russell	2	Jabari Parker	2	Victor Oladipo
3	Jaylen Brown	3	Jahlil Okafor	3	Joel Embiid	3	Otto Porter Jr.
4	Dragan Bender	4	Kristaps Porzingis	4	Aaron Gordon	4	Cody Zeller
	2012		2011		2010		2009
1	Anthony Davis	1	Kyrie Irving	1	John Wall	1	Blake Griffin
2	Michael Kidd-Gilchrist	2	Derrick Williams	2	Evan Turner	2	Hasheem Thabeet
3	Bradley Beal	3	Enes Kanter	3	Derrick Favors	3	James Harden
4	Dion Waiters	4	Tristan Thompson	4	Wesley Johnson	4	Tyreke Evans
	2008		2007		2006		2005
1	Derrick Rose	1	Greg Oden	1	Andrea Bargnani	1	Andrew Bogut
2	Michael Beasley	2	Kevin Durant	2	LaMarcus Aldridge	2	Marvin Williams
3	O.J. Mayo	3	Al Horford	3	Adam Morrison	3	Deron Williams
4	Russell Westbrook	4	Mike Conley	4	Tyrus Thomas	4	Chris Paul
	2004		2003		2002		2001
1	Dwight Howard	1	LeBron James	1	Yao Ming	1	Kwame Brown
2	Emeka Okafor	2	Darko Milicic	2	Jay Williams	2	Tyson Chandler
3	Ben Gordon	3	Carmelo Anthony	3	Mike Dunleavy	3	Pau Gasol
4	Shaun Livingston	4	Chris Bosh	4	Drew Gooden	4	Eddy Curry
	2000
1	Kenyon Martin
2	Stromile Swift
3	Darius Miles
4	Marcus Fizer

 

 

Tanking for a championship?  Many people want to tank to win a championship.  The thought is that if you tank into the top of the lottery you can get a player that can take you there.   Ok, @kurupt was nice enough to bring this list of top 4 picks.  I have two questions that are answered here.

1.  How many of these top 4 picks overall have won championships ( 6 of 64) or 9%

2.  How many of these top 4 picks overall have won championships with the team that drafted them?  1 of 64 or 1.5%,

The thing that is interesting about that 1 player of these 64 is that his name is Lebron... and He left the team that drafted him to win his first 2 championships. 

 

So to distill all of this... IF Championship is the goal of tanking, then what value is there in tanking for the team that gets a top 4 pick?  The answer (scientifically proven) is that you will win a championship 1.5% of the time.

[AHF]

39 minutes ago, Diesel said:

 

 

Tanking for a championship?  Many people want to tank to win a championship.  The thought is that if you tank into the top of the lottery you can get a player that can take you there.   Ok, @kurupt was nice enough to bring this list of top 4 picks.  I have two questions that are answered here.

1.  How many of these top 4 picks overall have won championships ( 6 of 64) or 9%

2.  How many of these top 4 picks overall have won championships with the team that drafted them?  1 of 64 or 1.5%,

The thing that is interesting about that 1 player of these 64 is that his name is Lebron... and He left the team that drafted him to win his first 2 championships. 

 

So to distill all of this... IF Championship is the goal of tanking, then what value is there in tanking for the team that gets a top 4 pick?  The answer (scientifically proven) is that you will win a championship 1.5% of the time.

If you are going to try to call something scientifically proven you at least need to use a wider net and both recognize that other lottery picks can net  you the championship player (why are we pretending like Curry, Wade and others don't count?) and look a bit farther back in history and maybe not skip over a bunch of rings like Jordan's Bulls, Magic's Lakers, Bird's Celtics, Isaih's Pistons, Kobe's Lakers, Wade's Heat, Duncan's Spurs, etc.

Notably, several of those players did make it to the NBA finals with their top players like Orlando with Dwight, OKC with Durant, etc.

Drafting the next Duncan or Jordan or Hakeem, etc. is not something useful to ignore even if it takes you a little while to get there (as is not unusual with the likelihood of keeping that superstar so much higher than the odds of landing him as a FA or in trade).

History probably shows something much closer to a 1.5% rate of champions who didn't draft their MVP level player in the lottery than those who did.

[DBac]

The Kings managed to somehow beat the Thunder and the Mavs beat the Wizards. So now we're right back in the race.

[Diesel]

1 hour ago, AHF said:

If you are going to try to call something scientifically proven you at least need to use a wider net and both recognize that other lottery picks can net  you the championship player (why are we pretending like Curry, Wade and others don't count?) and look a bit farther back in history and maybe not skip over a bunch of rings like Jordan's Bulls, Magic's Lakers, Bird's Celtics, Isaih's Pistons, Kobe's Lakers, Wade's Heat, Duncan's Spurs, etc.

Notably, several of those players did make it to the NBA finals with their top players like Orlando with Dwight, OKC with Durant, etc.

Drafting the next Duncan or Jordan or Hakeem, etc. is not something useful to ignore even if it takes you a little while to get there (as is not unusual with the likelihood of keeping that superstar so much higher than the odds of landing him as a FA or in trade).

History probably shows something much closer to a 1.5% rate of champions who didn't draft their MVP level player in the lottery than those who did.

No...

Normally, you tank to get a top 3 pick.... top of the lottery.  Here, we included the 4th pick.... I'm sure you would love to suggest than we tank out to the 10th pick.  Maybe because you will find more championship material at 5-10... maybe.  or Maybe top 4 is no better than 20-30 in finding championship players.  I mean, honestly, we have just looked over 16 years of top 4 picks and the only name that rings out as someone who has LED a team to the championship was LEBRON and even he did it as a member of the Heat (his second team) first. 

This attacks the very logic of those who say that tanking gives you a better shot at winning a title.  The truth has found that those teams with top 4 picks NEVER won a championship with that guy as the leader of the team. (Except Lebron who left and come back after the team mysteriously acquired 3 #1 overall picks). 

 

 

[Diesel]

1 hour ago, AHF said:

 

Notably, several of those players did make it to the NBA finals with their top players like Orlando with Dwight, OKC with Durant, etc.

 

Also....

IF the goal is winning a championship.. then there is arguably a 0% chance of doing it with guys picked in the top 4 according to the facts.   But seeing that you want to lower the goal post... and include guys who made it to the finals and didn't win....

2000	Los Angeles Lakers (1)	4–2	Indiana Pacers (1)	[77]
2001	Los Angeles Lakers (2)	4–1	Philadelphia 76ers (1)	[78]
2002	Los Angeles Lakers (3)	4–0	New Jersey Nets (1)	[79]
2003	San Antonio Spurs (1)	4–2	New Jersey Nets (2)	[80]
2004	Los Angeles Lakers (2)	1–4	Detroit Pistons (3)	[81]
2005	San Antonio Spurs (2)	4–3	Detroit Pistons (2)	[82]
2006	Dallas Mavericks (4)	2–4	Miami Heat (2)	[83]
2007	San Antonio Spurs (3)	4–0	Cleveland Cavaliers (2)	[84]
2008	Los Angeles Lakers (1)	2–4	Boston Celtics (1)	[85]
2009	Los Angeles Lakers (1)	4–1	Orlando Magic (3)	[86]
2010	Los Angeles Lakers (1)	4–3	Boston Celtics (4)	[87]
2011	Dallas Mavericks (3)	4–2	Miami Heat (2)	[88]
2012[f]	Oklahoma City Thunder (2)	1–4	Miami Heat (2)	[91]
2013	San Antonio Spurs (2)	3–4	Miami Heat (1)	[92]
2014	San Antonio Spurs (1)	4–1	Miami Heat (2)	[93]
2015	Golden State Warriors (1)	4–2	Cleveland Cavaliers (2)	[94]
2016	Golden State Warriors (1)	3–4	Cleveland Cavaliers (1)	[95]
2017	Golden State Warriors (1)	4–1	Cleveland Cavaliers (2)

 

Let's talk about the Losers...

• Pacers.. led by Reggie Miller . picked 11th. 
• Philly Led by Iverson .  Picked 1st.
• New Jersey led by Kidd.  Picked 2nd. 
• Los Angeles Lakers.  Shaq  picked 1st.  Kobe picked 13.
• Detroit Pistons - Led by Chauncey Billups Picked 3.
• Dallas Led by DIrk.. Picked 9th. 
• Cleveland Led by Lebron.  Picked 1st. 
• Orlando led by Dwight.  Picked 1st. 
• OKC led by Durant.  Picked 2nd. 

These are all losers.   None of them won with their team.   How many of them were available because their team tanked for them?  Only Lebron.

Moreover, the guys listed in red were not originally drafted by their losing team.  That says that there's an equal possibility of ending up in the championship game as it is by tanking into the top 4.  AND winning is not often down by players in the top 4. 

[AHF]

39 minutes ago, Diesel said:

This attacks the very logic of those who say that tanking gives you a better shot at winning a title.  The truth has found that those teams with top 4 picks NEVER won a championship with that guy as the leader of the team. (Except Lebron who left and come back after the team mysteriously acquired 3 #1 overall picks). 

 

 

28 win (seasons before the draft) then 27 win (season of draft) Bulls draft Jordan #3 - 6 rings

14 win then 29 win Rockets draft Sampson #1 then Hakeem #1 - 2 rings

16 win then 21 win Pistons draft Thomas #2 - 2 rings

Yep.  It can't happen.

(I am also telling you the key is getting in the lottery by whatever means to get that talent.  I don't care if it is pick #1 or #5.  Trade your way in like the Lakers did to nab Magic and Kobe, lose your way in like the Bulls with Jordan, or hurt your way in like the Spurs with Duncan.  Get the MVP talent.)

 

[Lurker]

If you want to look at a picture of all tools no skill, Zion would have his picture right beside it.

[Diesel]

8 hours ago, AHF said:

28 win (seasons before the draft) then 27 win (season of draft) Bulls draft Jordan #3 - 6 rings

14 win then 29 win Rockets draft Sampson #1 then Hakeem #1 - 2 rings

16 win then 21 win Pistons draft Thomas #2 - 2 rings

Yep.  It can't happen.

(I am also telling you the key is getting in the lottery by whatever means to get that talent.  I don't care if it is pick #1 or #5.  Trade your way in like the Lakers did to nab Magic and Kobe, lose your way in like the Bulls with Jordan, or hurt your way in like the Spurs with Duncan.  Get the MVP talent.)

 

Kobe was a 13th pick... You don't have to tank for that.   Point is that nowadays, better talent is being found in the middle and late rounds than what is being promoted in tankville. 

 

2016 2015 2014 2013

1Ben Simmons1Karl-Anthony Towns1Andrew Wiggins1Anthony Bennett

2Brandon Ingram2D'Angelo Russell2Jabari Parker2Victor Oladipo

3Jaylen Brown3Jahlil Okafor3Joel Embiid3Otto Porter Jr.

4Dragan Bender4Kristaps Porzingis4Aaron Gordon4Cody Zeller

[AHF]

6 minutes ago, Diesel said:

Kobe was a 13th pick... You don't have to tank for that.   Point is that nowadays, better talent is being found in the middle and late rounds than what is being promoted in tankville. 

 

2016 2015 2014 2013

1Ben Simmons1Karl-Anthony Towns1Andrew Wiggins1Anthony Bennett

2Brandon Ingram2D'Angelo Russell2Jabari Parker2Victor Oladipo

3Jaylen Brown3Jahlil Okafor3Joel Embiid3Otto Porter Jr.

4Dragan Bender4Kristaps Porzingis4Aaron Gordon4Cody Zeller

Who are the non-lottery guys drafted from 2013-16 that are looking better than Ben Simmons and KAT?  Curious to know.  

[Diesel]

6 hours ago, AHF said:

Who are the non-lottery guys drafted from 2013-16 that are looking better than Ben Simmons and KAT?  Curious to know.  

 

6 hours ago, Diesel said:

Kobe was a 13th pick... You don't have to tank for that.   Point is that nowadays, better talent is being found in the middle and late rounds than what is being promoted in tankville. 

 

2016 2015 2014 2013

1Ben Simmons1Karl-Anthony Towns1Andrew Wiggins1Anthony Bennett

2Brandon Ingram2D'Angelo Russell2Jabari Parker2Victor Oladipo

3Jaylen Brown3Jahlil Okafor3Joel Embiid3Otto Porter Jr.

4Dragan Bender4Kristaps Porzingis4Aaron Gordon4Cody Zeller

 

Let's start with

2013,

Greek Freak, Dennis, and Rudy Gobert look better than Bennett, Oladipo, Porter Jr, and Zeller..

2014

Zach Lavine and Rodney Hood can hold their own against Wiggins, Parker, Embiid, and Gordon. 

2015

Myles Turner and Devin Booker are as exciting as KAT, Russell, Okafor, or Porzingas.

2016...  

We will give that time..

 

Point is... you're just as likely to find a bust up top than you are in the middle. 

[AHF]

Clearly the answer is "no one" If you are looking in the same draft to date.  Booker and Turner aren't close to KAT so far.  Nobody looks nearly as good as Simmons but I've no problem with giving it time.  

I don't think you are being serious with the statement implying you are just as likely to bust at 1-4 as you are at any given pick outside the lottery.  The only way I'll take that seriously is if you are taking an approach of "the field" versus a pick.  I'd have to look at 15-66 versus 1-4 or 1-14 but I'd guess that is still clearly 1-14 over 15-66 unless you pick a specific year like 2011 or 2013 where an MVP talent incharacteristically emerges from the pack.  Notably, that has happened twice over the last decade (460 picks) with both selections happening at 15 i.e. literally one pick outside of the lottery (Greek and Kawhi).  Actually, those two stand out over the pack over a much longer period of time along with Steve Nash (also pick 15) and maybe one or two other non-lottery players who nearly won MVP over the last 40 or so years.  

Side note:  who doesn't love seeing D inadvertently argue for Dennis as a top 3 player in his draft class?

 

[High5]

18 hours ago, Diesel said:

Also....

IF the goal is winning a championship.. then there is arguably a 0% chance of doing it with guys picked in the top 4 according to the facts.   But seeing that you want to lower the goal post... and include guys who made it to the finals and didn't win....

2000	Los Angeles Lakers (1)	4–2	Indiana Pacers (1)	[77]
2001	Los Angeles Lakers (2)	4–1	Philadelphia 76ers (1)	[78]
2002	Los Angeles Lakers (3)	4–0	New Jersey Nets (1)	[79]
2003	San Antonio Spurs (1)	4–2	New Jersey Nets (2)	[80]
2004	Los Angeles Lakers (2)	1–4	Detroit Pistons (3)	[81]
2005	San Antonio Spurs (2)	4–3	Detroit Pistons (2)	[82]
2006	Dallas Mavericks (4)	2–4	Miami Heat (2)	[83]
2007	San Antonio Spurs (3)	4–0	Cleveland Cavaliers (2)	[84]
2008	Los Angeles Lakers (1)	2–4	Boston Celtics (1)	[85]
2009	Los Angeles Lakers (1)	4–1	Orlando Magic (3)	[86]
2010	Los Angeles Lakers (1)	4–3	Boston Celtics (4)	[87]
2011	Dallas Mavericks (3)	4–2	Miami Heat (2)	[88]
2012[f]	Oklahoma City Thunder (2)	1–4	Miami Heat (2)	[91]
2013	San Antonio Spurs (2)	3–4	Miami Heat (1)	[92]
2014	San Antonio Spurs (1)	4–1	Miami Heat (2)	[93]
2015	Golden State Warriors (1)	4–2	Cleveland Cavaliers (2)	[94]
2016	Golden State Warriors (1)	3–4	Cleveland Cavaliers (1)	[95]
2017	Golden State Warriors (1)	4–1	Cleveland Cavaliers (2)

"0% chance to win a championship with guys drafted in the top 4."

Literally every single one of those champions had one or more players drafted in the top 4. 

[KB21]

9 hours ago, AHF said:

Who are the non-lottery guys drafted from 2013-16 that are looking better than Ben Simmons and KAT?  Curious to know.  

Giannis and Nikola Jokic.

[AHF]

16 minutes ago, KB21 said:

Giannis and Nikola Jokic.

I'm on board with Giannis.  Not with Jokic (although I agree he is one of the best drafted in that time period).  I think Jokic's defensive tool limitations will limit his long-term potential ala Kevin Love.  If KAT doesn't engage more on D, he will end up in the same boat but he has the tools to be a plus on that end if he engages.  

[KB21]

1 minute ago, AHF said:

I'm on board with Giannis.  Not with Jokic (although I agree he is one of the best drafted in that time period).  I think Jokic's defensive tool limitations will limit his long-term potential ala Kevin Love.  If KAT doesn't engage more on D, he will end up in the same boat but he has the tools to be a plus on that end if he engages.  

How about this?  Go back a couple of years then and look at 15th pick Kawhi Leonard.  Granted, he has this quad issue right now, but IMO, he's the best player that has been drafted since 2010 by a significant margin, though Giannis is closing the gap.   I'd also argue that Draymond Green is better than Ben Simmons and KAT.  

[AHF]

1 minute ago, KB21 said:

How about this?  Go back a couple of years then and look at 15th pick Kawhi Leonard.  Granted, he has this quad issue right now, but IMO, he's the best player that has been drafted since 2010 by a significant margin, though Giannis is closing the gap.   I'd also argue that Draymond Green is better than Ben Simmons and KAT.  

Kawhi at #15 was a fantastic home run.  No argument.  It will not surprise me if he joins the large number of #1 overall picks and lottery picks who have won MVP.  The injury will probably prevent that from happening this season given the alternatives will have played ~10% more games.  You can see in my sig that I took Kawhi with my first pick in the site draft this year for that reason.  

Kawhi could be a dominant #1 option on any team.  Green?  I don't believe he could do that but he is a fantastic glue guy star for a GS team that doesn't need him to be an impact offensive player.

[Diesel]

1 hour ago, AHF said:

Clearly the answer is "no one" If you are looking in the same draft to date.  Booker and Turner aren't close to KAT so far.  Nobody looks nearly as good as Simmons but I've no problem with giving it time.  

 

It's sad that you don't pay attention to the times...

Quote

Phoenix Suns guard Devin Booker became the fourth-youngest player in NBA history to reach 3,000 points on Monday night.

Booker, 21, is behind LeBron James, Kevin Durant and Carmelo Anthony on the list for fastest to 3,000. All three of the players ahead of him reached the milestone before their 21st birthday.

The third-year player entered Monday's contest against the Brooklyn Nets averaging 22.0 points per game. He finished with 18 points on the night in a 98-92 Phoenix loss.

Myles Turner has been injured thus far.. but just wait and see. 

[Diesel]

20 minutes ago, AHF said:

Kawhi at #15 was a fantastic home run.  No argument.  It will not surprise me if he joins the large number of #1 overall picks and lottery picks who have won MVP.  The injury will probably prevent that from happening this season given the alternatives will have played ~10% more games.  You can see in my sig that I took Kawhi with my first pick in the site draft this year for that reason.  

Kawhi could be a dominant #1 option on any team.  Green?  I don't believe he could do that but he is a fantastic glue guy star for a GS team that doesn't need him to be an impact offensive player.

Look at your allstars last year.

 

Starters[32]
G	Kyrie Irving	Cleveland Cavaliers	4
G	DeMar DeRozan	Toronto Raptors	3
F	LeBron James	Cleveland Cavaliers	13
F	Jimmy Butler	Chicago Bulls	3
F/G	Giannis Antetokounmpo	Milwaukee Bucks	1
Reserves[33]
G	Isaiah Thomas	Boston Celtics	2
G	John Wall	Washington Wizards	4
F/C	Kevin LoveINJ	Cleveland Cavaliers	4
F	Carmelo AnthonyREP	New York Knicks	10
G	Kyle Lowry	Toronto Raptors	3
F	Paul George	Indiana Pacers	4
G	Kemba Walker	Charlotte Hornets	1
F	Paul Millsap	Atlanta Hawks	4

 

Starters[32]
G	Stephen Curry	Golden State Warriors	4
G	James Harden	Houston Rockets	5
F	Kevin Durant	Golden State Warriors	8
F	Kawhi Leonard	San Antonio Spurs	2
F/C	Anthony Davis	New Orleans Pelicans	4
Reserves[33]
G	Russell Westbrook	Oklahoma City Thunder	6
G	Klay Thompson	Golden State Warriors	3
F	Draymond Green	Golden State Warriors	2
C	DeMarcus Cousins	Sacramento Kings	3
C	Marc Gasol	Memphis Grizzlies	3
C	DeAndre Jordan	Los Angeles Clippers	1
F	Gordon Hayward	Utah Jazz	1

 

So that when we consider these players. ....  14 players are not top 8 picks in the draft.... are allstars...

 

So what has been proven.

• Over the last 16 years 0% of the top 4 picks of the draft have won their first championship with the team that drafted them. 
• The 2017 Allstar game had  58.3% of it's players not picked in the first 8 picks of their draft. 

 

Yet... you want to tell us the virtue of tanking your franchise to move up in the draft... to get a star.