PREDICTION TIME! 2018 Hawks Predictions

[AHF]

Time to Plant Your Flag for the 2018-19 Season

Enter your projections for the Hawks' record this season, and I'll keep a running total throughout the year:

Win / Loss Record 

 

Tiebreakers:  (Note - Each one processed before the next; not best of 5; record = #5 if not listed)

1. Conference finish (1st in conference through 15th)
2. Number of Hawks in the All-Star game and on the Rookie / Sophmore Teams
3. Hawks leading scorer (points per game, minimum 42 games played)
4. Hawks leading rebounder (rebounds per game, minimum 42 games played)
5. Expected W-L record as tracked on basketball reference (this is the expected record of the Hawks based on the number of points they score and give up)  - https://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/ATL/2019.html

If this last one is confusing also see:  

 

 

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My picks:

W/L - 28-54

1. 12th
2. 0 All-Stars; 2 rookie/soph team (Young and Collins)
3. Young (made the bet with Peoria so might as well go all-in)
4. Collins
5. 30-52

 

Hawks Predictions
Poster	Record	Conference Rank	# of AS/Rookie-Soph	Leading Scorer	Leading Rebounder	Expected WL
bleachkit	70-12	1st	1	Huerter	Huerter	70-12
Gray Mule	41-41	8th	2	Prince	Len	41-41
silent	39-43	7th	2 All-Stars / 2	Prince	Len	43-39
thecampster	36-46	9th	2	Prince	Len	36-46
Peoriabird	35-47	9th	2	Prince	Len	38-44
JCDBaptist	34-48	9th	3	Prince	Collins	38-44
marco102	31-51	10th	2	Prince	Len	34-48
lethalweapon3	30-52	11th	2	Young	Collins	24-58
AHawks89	29-53	12th	3	Prince	Collins	33-49
TheFuzz	28-54	13th	2	Prince	Collins	24-58
AHF	28-54	12th	2	Young	Collins	30-52
hazer	28-54	12th	1 All-Star / 2	Prince	Len	32-50
Sothron	28-54	NA	NA	NA	NA	28-54
Spud	27-55	13th	2	Prince	Collins	27-55
benhillboy	27-55	12th	2	Collins	Collins	27-55
JayBirdHawk	25-57	13th	2	Prince	Len	28-54
Hawkitus	23-59	NA	2	Prince	Len	18-64
frosgrim	22-60	15th	2	Young	Collins	19-63
Vol4ever	22-60	NA	2	Prince	Collins	22-60
capstone	21-61	15th	2	Collins	Collins	21-61

Hawks Predictions
Poster	Record	Conference Rank	# of AS/Rookie-Soph	Leading Scorer	Leading Rebounder	Expected WL
bleachkit	70-12	1st	1	Huerter	Huerter	70-12
Gray Mule	41-41	8th	2	Prince	Len	41-41
silent	39-43	7th	2 All-Stars / 2	Prince	Len	43-39
thecampster	36-46	9th	2	Prince	Len	36-46
Peoriabird	35-47	9th	2	Prince	Len	38-44
JCDBaptist	34-48	9th	3	Prince	Collins	38-44
marco102	31-51	10th	2	Prince	Len	34-48
lethalweapon3	30-52	11th	2	Young	Collins	24-58
AHawks89	29-53	12th	3	Prince	Collins	33-49
TheFuzz	28-54	13th	2	Prince	Collins	24-58
AHF	28-54	12th	2	Young	Collins	30-52
hazer	28-54	12th	1 All-Star / 2	Prince	Len	32-50
Sothron	28-54	NA	NA	NA	NA	28-54
Spud	27-55	13th	2	Prince	Collins	27-55
benhillboy	27-55	12th	2	Collins	Collins	27-55
JayBirdHawk	25-57	13th	2	Prince	Len	28-54
Hawkitus	23-59	NA	2	Prince	Len	18-64
frosgrim	22-60	15th	2	Young	Collins	19-63
Vol4ever	22-60	NA	2	Prince	Collins	22-60
capstone	21-61	15th	2	Collins	Collins	21-61

[capstone21]

W/L 21 - 61

1. 15th

2. (Young and Collins will be in the rookie / Soph game)

3 Collins

4 Collins

5 No clue what you want for here

 

 

[Spud2nique]

W/L 27-55

1. 13th

2. 2 (Young n Collins) Prince borderline all star ⭐️ just misses out!

3. Prince

4. Collins

5. ??‍♂️ 

[Peoriabird]

35 wins

9th

no all stars...Trae and Spellman on the rookie team/Collins sophomore game

Prince

Len

38-44

[Gray Mule]

8th

2

3- Prince

Len

41-41

[HawkItus]

23-59

2

Prince

Len

18-64

 

[frosgrim]

W/L= 22-60

1. 15th

2. AS= 0, R/S = 2 (Collins & Young)

3. Young (18 ppg) 

4. Collins

5. 19-63 (if I'm understanding this correctly, it's what the overall stats predict v. what is actually achieved. If so, i think the Hawks slightly out perform the metrics due to some really bad losses, especially early in the season. However, they correct a lot of issues late in the season). 

 

All may sound like I'm down on the team, but I'm not. I just don't think they will win much this year.  Too much is new and untested- we are practically an expansion team right now with first time HC, an ownership group that is just learning how to be owners, a 2nd year GM, and a bunch of first and second year players, plus castoffs.  This just isn't the year it all comes together, in two years though...

[AHF]

58 minutes ago, capstone21 said:

 

5 No clue what you want for here

 

 

Basically you are saying what the team's record should look like if they aren't unusually lucky or unlucky.  

Quote

What is Pythagorean Record (Expected Wins)?

A metric that mathematically determines how many games a basketball team should have won in a given year, based on their offensive and defensive scoring totals. One can then compare a team's Pythagorean Record to their actual record, to see if the team overachieved or underachieved that season.

https://www.sportingcharts.com/dictionary/nba/pythagorean-record-expected-wins.aspx

The most common means of predicting what a teams record should be the "Expected W/L" record.  That is a metric based on the number of points a team scores and gives up. If you follow the link I posted, you will see that the Hawks last year had a 27-55 expected record but managed to lose more than their play indicated they should have lost.  This is similar to projecting what a team's record should look like if you take random luck out of the equation (or deliberate tanking down the stretch which disproportionately pushes a team's record toward losses versus what they would be projected to get).

Basketball Reference gives Expected W-L record for every Hawks team.  It also lists the formula here:

https://www.basketball-reference.com/about/glossary.html#wins_pyth

It is under "W Pyth".

Here is another site on it:

https://captaincalculator.com/sports/basketball/pythagorean-win-percentage-calculator/

This is derived from the Bill James criteria for baseball.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pythagorean_expectation

 

[bleachkit]

70-12

1. 1st

2. Huerter

3. Huerter 

4. Huerter

[AHF]

2 minutes ago, bleachkit said:

70-12

1. 1st

2. Huerter

3. Huerter 

4. Huerter

 

[TheFuzz]

28 - 54

1. 13th

2. Young and Collins, no all stars

3. Prince

4. Collins

5. 24 - 58 (Ice Trae carries us in the clutch)

[JayBirdHawk]

28 minutes ago, bleachkit said:

70-12

1. 1st

2. Huerter

3. Huerter 

4. Huerter

[sillent]

2 hours ago, AHF said:

Time to Plant Your Flag for the 2018-19 Season

Enter your projections for the Hawks' record this season, and I'll keep a running total throughout the year:

Win / Loss Record 

 

Tiebreakers:

1. Conference finish (1st in conference through 15th)
2. Number of Hawks in the All-Star game and on the Rookie / Sophmore Teams
3. Hawks leading scorer (points per game, minimum 42 games played)
4. Hawks leading rebounder (rebounds per game, minimum 42 games played)
5. Expected W-L record as tracked on basketball reference (this is the expected record of the Hawks based on the number of points they score and give up)  - https://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/ATL/2019.html

If this last one is confusing also see:  

 

 

------------------------------------

 

My picks:

W/L - 39 - 43

1. 7th
2. 2 All-Stars; (Prince/Collins) 2 rookie/soph team (Young and Collins if it's possible for Collins to be in both)
3. Prince
4. Len
5. 43 - 39 (I know 39 is in there some where just not sure if it's losses or wins)

Some of my predictions already look good but for these questions my picks are stated above.

[sillent]

3 minutes ago, sillent said:

Some of my predictions already look good but for these questions my picks are stated above.

Also forgot to add Spellman to the rookie sophmore game especially if Collins is an allstar. Spellman would have to either beat out or be as good as Bagley, Bamba, Ayton, Knox and I think he can especially if we do better than expected. Unless  Mainstream Media has more of the influence I can see him getting in over Bagley or them shunning Bamba if he doesn't start.

[lethalweapon3]

(Not sure Dewayne couldn't pull off that look... just a Halloween idea! Watch out for that Treeeeeeeee...)

W-L Record: 30-52

Leastern Conference Finish: 11th (ahead of the Knicks, Cavs -- sorry!, Nets and Magic)

All-Stars: zilch... Rookie/Soph Rising Stars: 2

PPG Leader: Trae Young (18.8 PPG)

RPG Leader: John Collins (8.2 RPG)

Pythagorean (wow, no spell check!) Record: 24-58

 

~lw3

[sillent]

2 hours ago, Peoriabird said:

35 wins

9th

no all stars...Trae and Spellman on the rookie team/Collins sophomore game

Prince

Len

38-44

 

2 hours ago, Gray Mule said:

8th

2

3- Prince

Len

41-41

Kudos to these 2. Closest ones to my prediction and also reasonable predictions. Together we can bring them all to the brightside ... Illumisquawkees lol

[Spud2nique]

2 hours ago, lethalweapon3 said:

John Collins (8.2 RPG)

Higher! IMHO ? 

[sillent]

4 hours ago, Spud2nique said:

Higher! IMHO ? 

Where's that "Like" I think Dedmon and Collins may not quite get double figures in rebounds only because Len, Dorsey, Prince, Bembry and company will be collecting a good share themselves. 8.9 maybe 9.3 for John so I think you're about right. Maybe 7.3 at worst.

[Spud2nique]

22 minutes ago, sillent said:

Where's that "Like" I think Dedmon and Collins may not quite get double figures in rebounds only because Len, Dorsey, Prince, Bembry and company will be collecting a good share themselves. 8.9 maybe 9.3 for John so I think you're about right. Maybe 7.3 at worst.

Ya the dude is long and athletic and has been rebounding well in every level of basketball so above 9 wouldn’t surprise me at all. 9.1 Lets take the middle of #’s sounds good to me! 

[marco102]

W/L 31 -51  

Conference 10th

Allstars 0/ Rookie - Soph - 1

Leading Scorer - Tauren Prince

Leading Rebounder - Alex Len

34-48