Trae Young: Reasons for Optimism & An Unexpected Concern

[vdunkndunk]

I was one of the ones who freaked out the most when we drafted Trae Young. While I did see some upside in him, I also thought he had major bust potential - and I also preferred Luka or JJJ, who, of course, were still on the board. I'm no longer concerned that Trae will be a bust - and I've quickly become a fan since the regular season started - but I do have one remaining concern that I didn't expect to have initially, and I'd welcome everyone's thoughts about what's going on and how Trae is likely to develop in that area.

Concerns Alleviated & Reasons for Optimism: I didn't watch Trae much in college, and, to be honest, I had no clue he was such a brilliant passer - truly an artist in that regard - so his passing ability alone has relieved my initial concern that he might be a total bust. He's also exceeded my expectations as a defender, and he's been much better getting to the basket and scoring as a young rookie than I expected (I was afraid he'd struggle to get separation or penetration on the perimeter and have trouble finishing in the paint due to his lack of size, length, and explosive leaping ability). But Trae is quicker and smarter than I thought, and he knows how to use the threat presented by his shooting and passing to create for himself, too. Finally, I didn't like the way he played in summer league (thought he jacked up way too many long 3s early in the shot clock), but I've loved the way he's played like a true pass-first PG in the regular season. In sum, I no longer see him as a bust, and I now see some legit All Star potential - plus, he's competitive and fun to watch.

Concern I Didn't Expect: Like I said, I didn't really watch Trae much in college - mostly just saw all those highlights of him bombing 3s. So I initially thought shooting was the one elite skill he could build on, as long as he was able to get his shot off against NBA athletes. However, as of this posting, he's shooting .271% from 3-point range - and I still don't necessarily love his shot selection on 3s. Additionally, he only shot 32% from 3 over his last 20 games in college, and he was also ice cold from 3 for the most part during summer league. So how concerned should we be about this? Have teams already figured out how to take away his 3-point shooting? Or is he likely to get this corrected as he grows and develops in the NBA? Given Trae's passing, competitiveness, smarts, and skill as a playmaker, I think he could become an All Star if he can shoot .400% from 3. Do you think he can get his 3-point shooting going to that level? If so, how long do you think it will take? And what do you think his career 3-point shooting percentage will be? Would welcome your thoughts. Thanks!

[NBASupes]

I am not worry about his shooting. He will learn he will need a lot of skill to get off his shot and he will work on it. What bothers me about Trae is his off the ball defensive effort is bad. 

What I like the most is his tremendous offensive talent. He could win MVPs

[AHF]

For me this wasn't an unexpected concern so I'll just say I'm really happy with how much better he has shown to be so far than the downside scenario I feared with him.  I think  his shooting mechanics will turn out to be fine and it will be more a matter of shot selection.  I expected him to come in chucking and ball dominating and while he has taken too many bad shots, he has actually helped relieve some of my concern with this.  Can't wait to see how he further evolves with a weapon like Collins in the lineup (hopefully) soon!

[Peoriabird]

On 11/8/2018 at 11:29 AM, vdunkndunk said:

Concern I Didn't Expect: Like I said, I didn't really watch Trae much in college - mostly just saw all those highlights of him bombing 3s. So I initially thought shooting was the one elite skill he could build on, as long as he was able to get his shot off against NBA athletes. However, as of this posting, he's shooting .271% from 3-point range - and I still don't necessarily love his shot selection on 3s. Additionally, he only shot 32% from 3 over his last 20 games in college, and he was also ice cold from 3 for the most part during summer league. So how concerned should we be about this? Have teams already figured out how to take away his 3-point shooting? Or is he likely to get this corrected as he grows and develops in the NBA? Given Trae's passing, competitiveness, smarts, and skill as a playmaker, I think he could become an All Star if he can shoot .400% from 3. Do you think he can get his 3-point shooting going to that level? If so, how long do you think it will take? And what do you think his career 3-point shooting percentage will be? Would welcome your thoughts. Thanks!

Trae is just lazy at time and wants to take possessions off from time to time during games.  He is so use to not working during every possession on offense to the point where he has developed this bad habit of launching terrible low percentage shots early in the shot clock.  When he works at the offensive end, marvelous things happen.  He either gets to the rim or gets himself or others quality shots.  Pierce just needs to break him of these bad habits and he will star in this league.

[capstone21]

I will say that thus far he has been better then I expected (I actually had low expectations). 

His passing is excellent and his turnovers are not as bad I was expecting.  He takes some really bad shots and I HATE the dribble down and chuck up a three (without setting his feet) but otherwise he has done a much better job of getting to the basket as well as being able to get his shot off then I was expecting.   

He is an absolute disaster on D but I WAS expecting this.  The problem is that we have to always make up for that for as long as he is a Hawk.  

It will be interesting to see how he does over a season and how he does against some of the bigger bruising point guards.

Its a long season and we have only just begun

[High5]

He's been great at catch and shoot 3's. 43.5% on 2.1 attempts. Unfortunately he's shooting 19.1% on his 4.3 pull up 3's. I'm not worried about it yet. There's a lot that can and should happen that will improve the percentage. 

[JTB]

I think everyone pretty much has it right but it’s m going to go a little further and some may agree some may not...

first off I’m not worried about Trae. He is elite at passing for his age. His defense has been way better than expected (on ball anyways). He has got to rim very well and from what I’m seeing is finishing well for the most part and last while he is missing his pull up 3s in particular, the dude does NOT have a broken shot! his shooting mechanics are excellent as a young rookie in my opinion and the bad offensively with him is only 3pt shot selection....basically everything that has already been mentioned 

 

but taking it a further step . I’m going to be Trae’s Mind for a second  and tell you what I think the poor 3pt pull ups are coming from....MY NAME IS TRAE YOUNG AND I LOVE TO SETUP MY TEAM TO GET EASY BUCKETS WITH MY GREAT PASSING SKILLS BUT I WANT TO BE SETUP FOR EASY BASKETS AS WELL.

i love to pass but I love to score too

 

.....ya see to me I think Trae wants to be an elite offensive player period. It sucks that it’s rare for him to receive a good pass from a teammate on a good shot he can take . He’s also to blame as his off ball movement need to get better but TRUST me I’m watching these games closely and when Trae does move, the ball rarely finds him again in the same possession. So I’m telling you guys this dude wants to score and pass at an elite level not just pass. I’m not saying he won’t do what’s needed to win but I think he knows how impactful of a scorer he can be if he can get going.

i get he’s taking the most shots but the offense is not being built on his ability to score but only on his ability to set up his team and pass them the ball.....therefore in that area Coach LP and his staff are failing not my opinion. Trae needs a lot more scoring plays than what he’s getting and that requires someone else running the offense to help set him up.

[capstone21]

 

11 minutes ago, JTB said:

I think everyone pretty much has it right but it’s m going to go a little further and some may agree some may not...

first off I’m not worried about Trae. He is elite at passing for his age. His defense has been way better than expected (on ball anyways). He has got to rim very well and from what I’m seeing is finishing well for the most part and last while he is missing his pull up 3s in particular, the dude does NOT have a broken shot! his shooting mechanics are excellent as a young rookie in my opinion and the bad offensively with him is only 3pt shot selection....basically everything that has already been mentioned 

 

but taking it a further step . I’m going to be Trae’s Mind for a second  and tell you what I think the poor 3pt pull ups are coming from....MY NAME IS TRAE YOUNG AND I LOVE TO SETUP MY TEAM TO GET EASY BUCKETS WITH MY GREAT PASSING SKILLS BUT I WANT TO BE SETUP FOR EASY BASKETS AS WELL.

i love to pass but I love to score too

 

.....ya see to me I think Trae wants to be an elite offensive player period. It sucks that it’s rare for him to receive a good pass from a teammate on a good shot he can take . He’s also to blame as his off ball movement need to get better but TRUST me I’m watching these games closely and when Trae does move, the ball rarely finds him again in the same possession. So I’m telling you guys this dude wants to score and pass at an elite level not just pass. I’m not saying he won’t do what’s needed to win but I think he knows how impactful of a scorer he can be if he can get going.

i get he’s taking the most shots but the offense is not being built on his ability to score but only on his ability to set up his team and pass them the ball.....therefore in that area Coach LP and his staff are failing not my opinion. Trae needs a lot more scoring plays than what he’s getting and that requires someone else running the offense to help set him up.

Just play smart and take good shots.

[bleachkit]

I hope he can correct his shooting woes. But it is possible his shooting ability was oversold. Worst case scenario is he ends up a JR Smith type that gets crazy hot from three one night, and then struggles from three the next 4 or 5 games. But he can always fall back on his passing no matter what.

[JTB]

2 hours ago, capstone21 said:

 

Just play smart and take good shots.

Serious question...if you had to guess not counting drives, how many smart good jump shots do you really believe Trae is getting per game ?

i would say probably 2-4 actual good look jump shots and 4 being extremely nice 

as I’ve already stated to me LPs offense is not being built for straws scoring ability but only passing ability. There are no consistent plays being ran to get Trae open for shots.

[thecampster]

7 hours ago, vdunkndunk said:

I was one of the ones who freaked out the most when we drafted Trae Young. While I did see some upside in him, I also thought he had major bust potential - and I also preferred Luka or JJJ, who, of course, were still on the board. I'm no longer concerned that Trae will be a bust - and I've quickly become a fan since the regular season started - but I do have one remaining concern that I didn't expect to have initially, and I'd welcome everyone's thoughts about what's going on and how Trae is likely to develop in that area.

Concerns Alleviated & Reasons for Optimism: I didn't watch Trae much in college, and, to be honest, I had no clue he was such a brilliant passer - truly an artist in that regard - so his passing ability alone has relieved my initial concern that he might be a total bust. He's also exceeded my expectations as a defender, and he's been much better getting to the basket and scoring as a young rookie than I expected (I was afraid he'd struggle to get separation or penetration on the perimeter and have trouble finishing in the paint due to his lack of size, length, and explosive leaping ability). But Trae is quicker and smarter than I thought, and he knows how to use the threat presented by his shooting and passing to create for himself, too. Finally, I didn't like the way he played in summer league (thought he jacked up way too many long 3s early in the shot clock), but I've loved the way he's played like a true pass-first PG in the regular season. In sum, I no longer see him as a bust, and I now see some legit All Star potential - plus, he's competitive and fun to watch.

Concern I Didn't Expect: Like I said, I didn't really watch Trae much in college - mostly just saw all those highlights of him bombing 3s. So I initially thought shooting was the one elite skill he could build on, as long as he was able to get his shot off against NBA athletes. However, as of this posting, he's shooting .271% from 3-point range - and I still don't necessarily love his shot selection on 3s. Additionally, he only shot 32% from 3 over his last 20 games in college, and he was also ice cold from 3 for the most part during summer league. So how concerned should we be about this? Have teams already figured out how to take away his 3-point shooting? Or is he likely to get this corrected as he grows and develops in the NBA? Given Trae's passing, competitiveness, smarts, and skill as a playmaker, I think he could become an All Star if he can shoot .400% from 3. Do you think he can get his 3-point shooting going to that level? If so, how long do you think it will take? And what do you think his career 3-point shooting percentage will be? Would welcome your thoughts. Thanks!

A lot of what you're posting here we covered in the draft threads. Let me sum up.

1) Best reason to take Trae, is he's a unicorn in modern basketball. He's an eye's up passer. He isn't a blow by point guard but instead uses a series of stop and goes to get separation and gets the defender on his hip, in order to keep his eyes/elbows up to make the pass first.

2) This was talked about extensively in the predraft threads but the transition from the college/Euro 3 to the NBA 3 is very complicated.  First, the players are almost all a bit taller longer than in college and it changes angles slightly. The zone vs man to man means that the college 3 is almost always off the catch and shoot.  The NBA 3 is much more often a dribble pull up or a pull up off the screen. Not all, but a much bigger percentage. Lastly, the NBA 3 is 2 feet longer than college and a bit longer than the Euro 3.  All of these factors lead to 3 point shooters needing about 2 years to adjust. It takes a very long time to forget muscle memory.

3) The NBA game is 8 minutes longer and teams play on average 3.5 games per week.  In college they play a shorter game with quicker player substitutions, zone defenses and play at most 2 games per week. Legs are much fresher in college.

 

These are all adjustments. They take time.

[TheNorthCydeRises]

10 hours ago, High5 said:

He's been great at catch and shoot 3's. 43.5% on 2.1 attempts. Unfortunately he's shooting 19.1% on his 4.3 pull up 3's. I'm not worried about it yet. There's a lot that can and should happen that will improve the percentage. 

This is why I said a few days ago "if anybody on the Hawks is making Trae better"?

It's up to his teammates to find him when he is open.  Playing beside a secondary facilitator may improve his shooting.

[hawkman]

5 minutes ago, TheNorthCydeRises said:

This is why I said a few days ago "if anybody on the Hawks is making Trae better"?

It's up to his teammates to find him when he is open.  Playing beside a secondary facilitator may improve his shooting.

 

 

He needs another offensively gifted player out there to take some of the pressure off. Right now, Trae seems to be the focal point of opposing team's defense. Having Collins out there would help tremendously. Before the season, I honestly felt like Collins would be the leading scorer for the Hawks. He has a lot of tools offensively that he really didn't show last season. He also added the 3 ball so I think he will be more of an offensive weapon than people think. 

[deester11]

2 hours ago, TheNorthCydeRises said:

This is why I said a few days ago "if anybody on the Hawks is making Trae better"?

It's up to his teammates to find him when he is open.  Playing beside a secondary facilitator may improve his shooting.

JTB is on point, but this nugget of a post is amazingly accurate too. There are times he's standing there and doing Jumping Jack's and the head down dribbling teammates don't see him.  It's tough because no one is that good of a facilitator to get it to him for good shots.  He will get better and I see the bad shots decreasing as he grows.

[DBac]

He's the best rookie PG (traditional size PG) to come into the league since Dame Lillard. His flashes are incredible, I can't wait until we grab his wing partner in crime in this next draft.

 

 

[LamarHampton]

The crazy long 3s worried me at first but it's just by design. It's how he likes to play; it's an (a) intentional trade off of an (often) early shot clock low percentage shot for (b) keeping defenses honest and more open for him to create better passes and shot situations for his teammates since it draws out other defenders as well. Is his % going to improve with time? Sure. You practice making long ass shots for a long ass time and your percentage should increase. Is a 38-footer ever going to be a "high" percentage shot? No. But if it has the impact of opening up movement and passing/driving lanes then it starts to make more sense, especially when your team leads the league in pace. Then a few extra, seemingly stupid, long distance shots from 35-38 feet might pay off. Sacrifice your 3pt % for more scoring and assist opportunities. Not sure exactly how it plays out, but I get it with a guy that has his court vision, so if it helps him find more open guys, then fine. And it's thrilling and fun to watch. 

[JayBirdHawk]

12 hours ago, TheNorthCydeRises said:

This is why I said a few days ago "if anybody on the Hawks is making Trae better"?

It's up to his teammates to find him when he is open.  Playing beside a secondary facilitator may improve his shooting.

Yes you did and it remains true. 

 

[Final_quest]

3 hours ago, LamarHampton said:

The crazy long 3s worried me at first but it's just by design. It's how he likes to play; it's an (a) intentional trade off of an (often) early shot clock low percentage shot for (b) keeping defenses honest and more open for him to create better passes and shot situations for his teammates since it draws out other defenders as well. Is his % going to improve with time? Sure. You practice making long ass shots for a long ass time and your percentage should increase. Is a 38-footer ever going to be a "high" percentage shot? No. But if it has the impact of opening up movement and passing/driving lanes then it starts to make more sense, especially when your team leads the league in pace. Then a few extra, seemingly stupid, long distance shots from 35-38 feet might pay off. Sacrifice your 3pt % for more scoring and assist opportunities. Not sure exactly how it plays out, but I get it with a guy that has his court vision, so if it helps him find more open guys, then fine. And it's thrilling and fun to watch. 

Exactly what I was thinking.  Is the net effect of taking long range 3's positive?  If the best part of his game is actually dribble drive dish, the long 3's give him more space to operate.  

It's still too early for me to have a firm opinion, but I'm hopeful he improves his percentage.  Maintaining his threat to sink a pull up a 3 early in the shot clock helps out the rest of his game.  

[AHF]

4 hours ago, LamarHampton said:

The crazy long 3s worried me at first but it's just by design. It's how he likes to play; it's an (a) intentional trade off of an (often) early shot clock low percentage shot for (b) keeping defenses honest and more open for him to create better passes and shot situations for his teammates since it draws out other defenders as well. Is his % going to improve with time? Sure. You practice making long ass shots for a long ass time and your percentage should increase. Is a 38-footer ever going to be a "high" percentage shot? No. But if it has the impact of opening up movement and passing/driving lanes then it starts to make more sense, especially when your team leads the league in pace. Then a few extra, seemingly stupid, long distance shots from 35-38 feet might pay off. Sacrifice your 3pt % for more scoring and assist opportunities. Not sure exactly how it plays out, but I get it with a guy that has his court vision, so if it helps him find more open guys, then fine. And it's thrilling and fun to watch. 

I don't think this will actually open anything up for him long-term, though, unless he does hit that at a high %.  Reality is that Josh Smith shooting 3's didn't open up jack #$* because teams got wise and stopped guarding him out there.  They wanted that shot so they let him have it.  Long-term, smart teams will handle Trae the same way unless he turns out to have Curry level shooting from that distance.  They will just let him have the bad shot and it won't open up passing lanes.

[Final_quest]

Something about a Trae Young to Josh Smith comparison rings hollow to me.  Definitely need more time to see how this unfolds.  

Right now I think Trae is benefitting from defenders respecting his shot based off of reputation.