Coronavirus!

[AHF]

There is definitely noise in the data right now.  Underreporting in some areas.  And lots of undiagosed cases not being counted.  My gut says it will net out to a significantly lower fatality rate than the current WHO numbers but we will have to see.  On the other hand, I would bet it will be materially higher than influenza.  

People should not panic but should be deliberate and careful if they are immune compromised.

[PSSSHHHRRR87]

A few of my coworkers know a few higher-ups with the CDC, and although they are not releasing this info to the public, they suspect this virus was created with the intent of population control and was purposefully released to the public... they are conducting a silent investigation into it currently.

Just now, KB21 said:

Actually, the death rate of this virus is going to be much lower than the scare tactics that are being used because there are likely a number of people who have the virus that never got sick enough to see a doctor.  The death rate of this virus is going to be much closer to that of influenza.  Around 0.7%.

Exactly what it all is... the virus is no worse than the flu or chickenpox. People need to stop with the hysteria and go about your bidness. People acting like AIDS is flying around in the air... 

https://www.livescience.com/new-coronavirus-compare-with-flu.html

[KB21]

6 hours ago, PSSSHHHRRR87 said:

A few of my coworkers know a few higher-ups with the CDC, and although they are not releasing this info to the public, they suspect this virus was created with the intent of population control and was purposefully released to the public... they are conducting a silent investigation into it currently.

Exactly what it all is... the virus is no worse than the flu or chickenpox. People need to stop with the hysteria and go about your bidness. People acting like AIDS is flying around in the air... 

https://www.livescience.com/new-coronavirus-compare-with-flu.html

Exactly!  Notice how the Hong Kong protests have stopped since this virus has been out.

People are fighting in the isles of stores over toilet paper because of this scare.  

Edited March 11, 2020 by AHF
Political Discussion

[sturt]

Having serious trouble figuring out what you just said, KB.

People who don't see a doctor but who have had influenza don't get counted, and people who don't see a doctor but who have had corona don't get counted, either. So that's irrelevant.

I believe I understand that Italy's experience right now is that corona mortality is running about 5x the influenza mortality rate.

On the other hand...

https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-ten-reasons-why-you-ought-not-to-panic-132941

[sturt]

33 minutes ago, PSSSHHHRRR87 said:

A few of my coworkers know a few higher-ups with the CDC, and although they are not releasing this info to the public, they suspect this virus was created with the intent of population control and was purposefully released to the public... they are conducting a silent investigation into it currently.

Forgive me, but that's wildly irresponsible if these are indeed "higher" ups, plural, telling multiple friends of yours that they are conducting an investigation of the Chinese government.

Doesn't pass the smell test.

Sounds very much more like what some very politically-inclined people might be motivated to start as gossip to see what they can start, ostensibly in support of their political goals.

[PSSSHHHRRR87]

13 minutes ago, KB21 said:

Exactly!  Notice how the Hong Kong protests have stopped since this virus has been out.

People are fighting in the isles of stores over toilet paper because of this scare.  If nothing else, it gives some of those who think socialism is a great idea a good look at how things will be under a socialist president.

This is what I believe was it's true intent.  Chinese communistic government using bio-warfare against the protesters, but then it started spreading.

And I lol every time hysteria happens and people start "stocking up" on bread and water. Their fat asses live off three Diet Cokes a day, yet are going to start drinking water during the Coronapocalyse? PAH-LEAZE.

[PSSSHHHRRR87]

3 minutes ago, sturt said:

Forgive me, but that's wildly irresponsible if these are indeed "higher" ups, plural, telling multiple friends of yours that they are conducting an investigation of the Chinese government.

Doesn't pass the smell test.

Sounds very much more like what some very politically-incliend people might be motivated to start as gossip to see what they can start, ostensibly in support of their political goals.

I agree with ya and I'm just passing along what I've been told... but just as with everything else going on this world, it's people's choice to believe the hysteria or not.

[sturt]

I understand it's an 11 hour drive from Wuhan to Hong Kong.

So, about the same as Atlanta to Dallas, I believe.

Of course, no one said the Chinese government is a model of efficiency. Maybe it got developed in Beijing, and half way to Hong Kong, they pulled over to eat in Wuhan, and someone dropped something as they were getting out of the car.

[AHF]

32 minutes ago, sturt said:

Having serious trouble figuring out what you just said, KB.

People who don't see a doctor but who have had influenza don't get counted, and people who don't see a doctor but who have had corona don't get counted, either. So that's irrelevant.

I believe I understand that Italy's experience right now is that corona mortality is running about 5x the influenza mortality rate.

On the other hand...

https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-ten-reasons-why-you-ought-not-to-panic-132941

They just recorded 168 deaths yesterday alone.  I think it would be foolhardy for anyone with a compromised immune system to buy into the line that this is just the "the normal flu 2.0" rationale.  Don't panic, but people should be on heightened awareness of ways to minimize their risk beyond what someone immune compromised might normally do for the flu.  We'll see at the end of the day where the numbers shake out but it is clear that this is highly mobile and infectious and there is enough early evidence that it represents an elevated mortality rate that this is just not something you want to gamble on.

[Sothron]

I am a hypoglycemic type 2 diabetic and I am taking this very seriously. I have a compromised immune system as a diabetic and catch things all the time. It takes me forever to recover from physical injuries. I have a year long event planned for later this month with Mrs. Sothron that I am going to have to refrain from going to because there will be over a hundred people there in cabins together. I can't risk it.

[Spud2nique]

4 minutes ago, Sothron said:

I am a hypoglycemic type 2 diabetic and I am taking this very seriously. I have a compromised immune system as a diabetic and catch things all the time. It takes me forever to recover from physical injuries. I have a year long event planned for later this month with Mrs. Sothron that I am going to have to refrain from going to because there will be over a hundred people there in cabins together. I can't risk it.

Be safe Soth. Sorry you’re having to miss the events that stinks I’ve had that happen hopefully another around the corner.

[AHF]

2 minutes ago, Sothron said:

I am a hypoglycemic type 2 diabetic and I am taking this very seriously. I have a compromised immune system as a diabetic and catch things all the time. It takes me forever to recover from physical injuries. I have a year long event planned for later this month with Mrs. Sothron that I am going to have to refrain from going to because there will be over a hundred people there in cabins together. I can't risk it.

Feel bad for liking this post but I think you are making the right call.  Diabetes definitely makes you more susceptible to infections and makes recovery much more dicey. 

It can also lead to big issues with blood sugar management as the infection drives your sugars off their usual mark.  Glad at least that this doesn't lead to stomach issues since those can be particularly brutal when you get the confluence of going low and needing to ingest something to avoid or remedy a low blood sugar but not being able to keep anything down.  Vicious cycle.  

[TheNorthCydeRises]

https://bnonews.com/

Click on the map to see the numbers worldwide.

[TheNorthCydeRises]

1 hour ago, AHF said:

They just recorded 168 deaths yesterday alone.  I think it would be foolhardy for anyone with a compromised immune system to buy into the line that this is just the "the normal flu 2.0" rationale.  Don't panic, but people should be on heightened awareness of ways to minimize their risk beyond what someone immune compromised might normally do for the flu.  We'll see at the end of the day where the numbers shake out but it is clear that this is highly mobile and infectious and there is enough early evidence that it represents an elevated mortality rate that this is just not something you want to gamble on.

Italy was at like 4 cases on Feb 23rd. 

2 weeks later, they're over 10,000 and have about the same death rate as was seen in Wuhan, China.  The virus started to explode in South Korea before it did in Italy, yet, the death rate quickly overtook what is being seen in South Korea.

I'm not in panic mode, but I'm not playing around with this stuff at all.  And anybody who think this is just another version of the flu, is fooling themselves.  

And this dude who keeps sneezing in this office . . . . man, let me go out on the production floor.

[bleachkit]

Ah yes, the culling of the herd. So it begins.

[TheNorthCydeRises]

Just been identified as a Pandemic now.

And Italy's death rate went up another 20% today.

With this now being a pandemic, this WILL affect the NBA, and possibly the NCAA tournament.  No way around that now.

[JayBirdHawk]

3 minutes ago, TheNorthCydeRises said:

Just been identified as a Pandemic now.

And Italy's death rate went up another 20% today.

With this now being a pandemic, this WILL affect the NBA, and possibly the NCAA tournament.  No way around that now.

It's started:

 

 

[AHF]

On a call with presentation by CDC to National Safety Council (not seeking my advice!).  Some of the highlights:

• Data shows highly contagious.  Spreads like traditional flu or cold but is more contagious.  Isn't air-born spread like measles so won't linger in the air for an extended time.
• No immunity.  In combination with above, exposure likely to be widespread in the US.  Unlikely to be a vaccine for months.  No medication or treatments approved to mitigate symptoms.  These things are likely a ways out with medicine to come before vaccine.
• Overall:  80% of people infected have minor symptoms and recover. 15-20% have serious symptoms.
• >99% of people who are exposed will become symptomatic within 14 days.  
• Children at lowest risk.  School-age children not at significant of risk of serious symptoms (unless immune compromised).
• Around 60 years of age, risk of serious condition escalates significantly.
• Immune compromised also heightened risk. 

 

• People should be prepared to stay home for a period of time.
• Need to wash / disinfect hands, etc.  
• Recommend postponing or cancelling mass gatherings.  No specific guidance on size for limitations.
• Don't recommend masks for healthy people not in risk environments.  Masks do a better job of preventing you from infecting others than protecting you from getting infected.

 

• After being infected, after you recover (i.e., no fever and feel better) people should stay home for 3-7 days.  You can get tested to confirm virus is no longer in system but we are unlikely to have testing capacity to do this for every case.  
• No evidence that people can become re-infected.  Immune response appears to be working well to protect which suggests that a vaccine should be effective.

 

• Significantly higher transmission rate than SARS and similar diseases.  More transmissible than the flu.  Not as transmissible as measles.
• Availability for testing should significantly increase in the next few weeks (although still won't be so prevalent that we can test every case as per above).  

[sturt]

2 minutes ago, AHF said:

Children at lowest risk.  School-age children not at significant of risk of serious symptoms.

I'm not the first to say it, what an unanticipated blessing this part is.

[AHF]

7 minutes ago, sturt said:

I'm not the first to say it, what an unanticipated blessing this part is.

My only qualification on this is that anyone who is immune compromised needs to be careful.