This is what I feared when Nate became head coach

[niremetal]

As someone who married a girl from Oregon (we now live in Portland...it's nice to get free childcare from her parents), the Blazers have long been my #2 team. I've followed them closely since the beginning of the Brandon Roy era. I watched most of their games on League Pass. I even posted on a couple Blazers blogs, and followed the online fan chatter pretty closely. 

Here's what I saw back then: Nate McMillan was rightly raked over the coals by Blazers fans, many times eerily echoing the reasons Hawks fans railed against Woody. For example:

• McMillan didn't run any sort of offensive system, instead relying on his best playmakers to figure out how to get points on the board. That meant overreliance on ISO plays (and the Blazers didn't have anyone who was as effective an ISO player as Joe), and a lot of guys taking low-percentage shots late in the clock. It led to an offense that frequently stagnated and was easy to scheme against.
• Lots of frustration over how particular players were used (esp not featuring LaMarcus Aldridge, even though he was clearly the most talented offensive player on the team). 
• Frustratingly stubborn with his rotation, and having particular habits/practices/rotations that he just wouldn't give up, even when it was clear they weren't working
• A strong tendency to prefer playing mediocre veterans over rookies.

So I had lots of concerns when he was made our head coach. But after last season's incredible run, I was hopeful all that was in the past:

• There still wasn't an offensive system, but the PnR with Trae was so unguardable that it didn't seem to matter
• He seemed to get the most out of players that had struggled (Bogi, Gallo) or not reached their potential (Huerter) previously, and even seemed to squeeze maximum value out of deep-bench role players (Snell, Hill)
• He tinkered with the lineups during the playoffs, first to stagger Trae and Bogi against NY, and then to run the big lineup featuring Gallo/JC/Clint against the Sixers.
• He gave OO meaningful minutes in the playoffs

But this season, all my old fears came back:

• Trae has elevated his game, but teams are getting better and better at defending the PnR against him (I feel like we're seeing at least 2-3x more intercepted lobs this season compared to last). And we don't have a reliable plan B when that isn't working for us.
• Trae's numbers are up this year, but nearly everyone else's are down. It just doesn't seem like anyone knows what they're supposed to do. We're seeing Cam take lots of contested mid-rangers, and then we alternate between going long stretches never giving JC a touch and trying to force feed him (while telegraphing to the defense that's what we're doing).
• The lineups are a maddening mess. Why we keep trotting out all-second-unit teams is beyond me.
• I have no clue why TLC is getting minutes, while Jalen doesn't get at least a chance to get some burn given our defensive struggles.

By far the biggest issue, IMHO, is the lack of an offensive system (or at least one that we consistently run). That is absolutely killing us. When the PnR breaks down, it seems like we're seeing more and more of those low-percentage/late-clock shots. And when we don't run PnR, and Nate doesn't make a specific play call, we're seeing poor spacing, little ball movement, and a lot of contested pull-up jumpers. It's also one of the reasons I think Trae takes so many early-clock heaves from 30-plus feet--there isn't an expectation that he'll go down the court and get into a default offensive set. Right now, we're doing well enough offensively because Trae has played like a man on fire. But I feel like in the playoffs, when defensive intensity picks up and teams have the time to strategize against us more comprehensively, we'd be toast.

More than that, and as @NBASupes and others have said, the amount of energy Trae has to spend running the offense is probably one of the reasons his defensive effort is so lacking.

I still put the blame for those things largely on Trae--he's the one who ultimately makes the decision to take bad shots and loaf around on D. But the lack of an offensive system definitely is an aggravating factor.

The inability to correctly utilize JC and our wings is also frustrating and again, I think ties back to the lack of an offensive system. No one seems to know either their role or their teammates'.

My fear is that we'll make a big, splashy trade sending JC and/or Cam elsewhere to bring in a low-tier All-Star, only to see that nothing fundamentally changes for us, while the guys we trade away thrive on teams that know how to utilize them.

/rant

Edited January 10, 2022 by niremetal

[Sothron]

Your last two points are the only real criticisms I have on Nate and that criticism has been there in Portland and Indiana. He is very fixated on rotations and heavily favors veterans over rookies. I don't mind having a "take the best shot" offense but you still need go to plays for buckets. JC is our most efficient scorer as a three level scorer and has zero plays drawn up for him. That, imo, is insane.

[marco102]

4 hours ago, Sothron said:

Your last two points are the only real criticisms I have on Nate and that criticism has been there in Portland and Indiana. He is very fixated on rotations and heavily favors veterans over rookies. I don't mind having a "take the best shot" offense but you still need go to plays for buckets. JC is our most efficient scorer as a three level scorer and has zero plays drawn up for him. That, imo, is insane.

What plays can they run for John that he doesn't already get?  

To me, when you run plays for someone, they have the ability to create and playmaker for others.  That's not John's game.  We've run plays to get him oops and post touches within the flow of the offense. 

 

Edited January 10, 2022 by marco102

[NBASupes]

4 hours ago, Sothron said:

Your last two points are the only real criticisms I have on Nate and that criticism has been there in Portland and Indiana. He is very fixated on rotations and heavily favors veterans over rookies. I don't mind having a "take the best shot" offense but you still need go to plays for buckets. JC is our most efficient scorer as a three level scorer and has zero plays drawn up for him. That, imo, is insane.

JC can't create his own basket but I would love plays for him that have him on the move like Coach Bud used to have for Korver. 

[Sothron]

49 minutes ago, NBASupes said:

JC can't create his own basket but I would love plays for him that have him on the move like Coach Bud used to have for Korver. 

He doesn't need to create if he's in the low post catching a pass. I definitely would love to see him catch and shoot in motion (not just lobs) as well like you suggested.

[JTB]

Great write up @niremetal ….As others have already stated JC need to be involved more and plays made for him.

We know it can be done but McMillan like Pierce just isn’t doing it so I’m done talking about it…Schlenk need to start forcing some hands and demanding his expectations. I understand not getting crazy involved with the coaching as a GM but I would love to see schlenk put his foot down and say this is how I expect you to run the team McMillan 

[Peoriabird]

That was an awesome write up.  Much more thoughtful than we need to trade for this play or that player to fix this team.  Posters continue to think players are limited in what they contribute because they haven't seen those players in those different roles but that's what the off season and coaching is for.  Player X we are going to work on developing skill Y and incorporate it into our offense.  That is what suppose to happen not lets run the same plays 2 -3 years strait and hope defenses never figure it out

[AHF]

3 hours ago, NBASupes said:

JC can't create his own basket but I would love plays for him that have him on the move like Coach Bud used to have for Korver. 

It doesn't have to be plays where you put the ball in JC's hands and let him beat someone one-on-one.  It can be plays where Trae is navigating options and JC is the #1 choice (given his efficiency).

[Diesel]

Crying about the offense doesn't seem to be the right cry to me.  We're still not a bad offensive team.  Hell, we lead the league in TOV% believe it or not.   Our offense is efficient.   Our defense is more the problem.

However, it's hard to cry for more plays to be run for JC because JC gets his chances at touches.   He's just not taking a lot of shots.   Maybe this is what makes us so efficient. 

The real tears has to be about our defense. 

[AHF]

50 minutes ago, Diesel said:

Crying about the offense doesn't seem to be the right cry to me.  We're still not a bad offensive team.  Hell, we lead the league in TOV% believe it or not.   Our offense is efficient.   Our defense is more the problem.

However, it's hard to cry for more plays to be run for JC because JC gets his chances at touches.   He's just not taking a lot of shots.   Maybe this is what makes us so efficient. 

The real tears has to be about our defense. 

That is a black and white fallacy.  Just because the defense needs work (and everyone on this site agrees it does) doesn't mean we can't also better utilize JC.  Too many stretches where he isn't involved in the play at all.

[Peoriabird]

On 1/11/2022 at 12:23 AM, AHF said:

That is a black and white fallacy.  Just because the defense needs work (and everyone on this site agrees it does) doesn't mean we can't also better utilize JC.  Too many stretches where he isn't involved in the play at all.

Then posters cry about his lack of production thus lack of value and want to trade him for lesser players.

[Hawkmoor]

I'm not gonna be politically correct.  First, I agree with everything you said. The rotations are a mess and Johnson NEEDS to play.  Next, Nates philosophy fits in with Trae running off Pierce so that he can continue to dominate the ball like he does.  The ISO Trae fits with Nate.  This is why Collins complained last year and is doing it again.  He doesn't have to call out Trae.  By default, if John wants more plays run to him, it goes right back to Trae.  This issue leads to poor defense.  Them guys are not gonna continue to run up and down the court and hustle while Trae is over there hogging the ball.  Its common sense. 

Which leads to Ben Simmons.  Simmons doesn't like to shoot the ball.  That part of his game is tailor made for Trae.  He DOES like to bring the ball up and set up the offense.  THAT doesn't fit well with Trae.  Trae would have to play two guard for long stretches, which fits his mentally better anyway.  Simmons would cover him on defense.  At the end of the day, Trae NEEDS a player on that team that has the CACHE to reel him AND Nate in. Collins is the closest to it but will only rock that boat soo much.  

THIS FITS TRAE:

Edited January 12, 2022 by Hawkmoor

[hylndr11]

Exactly and I don't know why it's so taboo to talk about. Doesn't mean there's an anti Trae agenda nobody here wants to not see Trae succeed here but it is what it is.  This isnt a coincidence, they need.to be reeled in.  I hate that.john has to do this , we are losing and this should be obvious.  It's a fine line for sure, if other guys aren't shooting as well u can't really argue against trae taking over at the same time they end up feeling he's not going to give them a chance to get into a rhythm since we are losing , it's a duality for sure nobody is really right or wrong but the guys need.to.get into a room.and figure this shit out , it's up to them really and that's what Travis was doing with his interview.  Trae isn't going anywhere but he may need to be reeled in a bit and and if he refuses then yes they will be forced to let some of these other guys go.and get players that allow for more of his style to work. Problem is, when we get to the playoffs. 

[Hawkmoor]

47 minutes ago, hylndr11 said:

Exactly and I don't know why it's so taboo to talk about. Doesn't mean there's an anti Trae agenda nobody here wants to not see Trae succeed here but it is what it is.  This isnt a coincidence, they need.to be reeled in.  I hate that.john has to do this , we are losing and this should be obvious.  It's a fine line for sure, if other guys aren't shooting as well u can't really argue against trae taking over at the same time they end up feeling he's not going to give them a chance to get into a rhythm since we are losing , it's a duality for sure nobody is really right or wrong but the guys need.to.get into a room.and figure this shit out , it's up to them really and that's what Travis was doing with his interview.  Trae isn't going anywhere but he may need to be reeled in a bit and and if he refuses then yes they will be forced to let some of these other guys go.and get players that allow for more of his style to work. Problem is, when we get to the playoffs. 

Absolutely.  Think about it.  We can't post the truth about Trae on a message board without someone saying its a "agenda".  Imagine what his teammates feel?  They KNOW they can't rock the boat with Trae.  Pierce found out the hard way.  NBA teams are gonna put their MARKETING SUPERSTAR FIRST over everything else.  Its about money.  Sure, the Hawks want to win a NBA Championship.  I'm convinced of that, BUT, they like that money too.  Trae fills them seats with his tricky dribbles and logo 3s.  The problem, like you said, is you can't win a championship like that.  Its a TEAM GAME.  One of the FUNDAMENTALS of being a point guard is taking the time to SET UP the offense.  Them quick shots by Trae is not basketball.   If Travis goes out and gets a mid tier guy he is spitting in the wind.  The Hawks need someone with cache to DEMAND the ball away from Trae and force Nate to run a more wide open offense which gets others involved.

[Diesel]

On 1/11/2022 at 12:23 AM, AHF said:

That is a black and white fallacy.  Just because the defense needs work (and everyone on this site agrees it does) doesn't mean we can't also better utilize JC.  Too many stretches where he isn't involved in the play at all.

If we were a bad offense team, you would have a point.   We are an efficient offensive team.  The problem still is that we don't stop anybody.  Some of that is that our main defensive personnel has been out.   Some of that is that without them, we can't cover Trae.  Still offensively, we can certainly get more touches to JC but I dont think it will change much.  Things won't change until our defense is at least average. 

[MarylandHawk]

On 1/12/2022 at 1:04 PM, Hawkmoor said:

Absolutely.  Think about it.  We can't post the truth about Trae on a message board without someone saying its a "agenda".  Imagine what his teammates feel?  They KNOW they can't rock the boat with Trae.  Pierce found out the hard way.  NBA teams are gonna put their MARKETING SUPERSTAR FIRST over everything else.  Its about money.  Sure, the Hawks want to win a NBA Championship.  I'm convinced of that, BUT, they like that money too.  Trae fills them seats with his tricky dribbles and logo 3s.  The problem, like you said, is you can't win a championship like that.  Its a TEAM GAME.  One of the FUNDAMENTALS of being a point guard is taking the time to SET UP the offense.  Them quick shots by Trae is not basketball.   If Travis goes out and gets a mid tier guy he is spitting in the wind.  The Hawks need someone with cache to DEMAND the ball away from Trae and force Nate to run a more wide open offense which gets others involved.

I was with you with that first post but I have to part here. Trae’s success and winning is one in the same thing. Winning a championship brings the most money. Trae wants to win. Hawks want to win. Period. Everyone here is saying you can’t win a championship with Trae being a dominant offensive player but they don’t know that. The fact of the matter is every time a championship is won it is done in a fashion no one predicted it would. I could go on on about player types who won championships where the previous season people said it was impossible. Trae is a once in a generational player who gives maximum effort to achieve winning with the tools he has.  It is weird to ask him to step back and change before anyone else steps up their effort first. I posted before that Trae could be averaging 15 assists if teammates would hit open shots and hustle to get open more EVERY TIME down court. He WILL find them.  His effort is were it needs to be. Johns effort level is where it needs to be. Everyone else is out there lolly gagging. The coaches are ambivalent.  I agree that there should be a default set of offensive plays where all your main players are a first option and they need to know and understand that if their number is not called that they can create their own touches by moving without the basketball and giving multiple efforts on each possession.  Does everyone have amnesia? Did we not just watch him lead us to the ECF? If he doesn’t twist his ankle everyone believed he would lead us past the Bucks. Now all of a sudden we need to demand the ball away from Trae because everyone else sucks but him and they are not even going to try to play defense until they get touches?  That is nonsense. Trae has elevated his game and the rest of the team needs to as well. 

[HawkingAwesome]

The offense isn't the problem its the dang lack of defense 

[Hawkmoor]

2 hours ago, MarylandHawk said:

I was with you with that first post but I have to part here. Trae’s success and winning is one in the same thing. Winning a championship brings the most money. Trae wants to win. Hawks want to win. Period. Everyone here is saying you can’t win a championship with Trae being a dominant offensive player but they don’t know that. The fact of the matter is every time a championship is won it is done in a fashion no one predicted it would. I could go on on about player types who won championships where the previous season people said it was impossible. Trae is a once in a generational player who gives maximum effort to achieve winning with the tools he has.  It is weird to ask him to step back and change before anyone else steps up their effort first. I posted before that Trae could be averaging 15 assists if teammates would hit open shots and hustle to get open more EVERY TIME down court. He WILL find them.  His effort is were it needs to be. Johns effort level is where it needs to be. Everyone else is out there lolly gagging. The coaches are ambivalent.  I agree that there should be a default set of offensive plays where all your main players are a first option and they need to know and understand that if their number is not called that they can create their own touches by moving without the basketball and giving multiple efforts on each possession.  Does everyone have amnesia? Did we not just watch him lead us to the ECF? If he doesn’t twist his ankle everyone believed he would lead us past the Bucks. Now all of a sudden we need to demand the ball away from Trae because everyone else sucks but him and they are not even going to try to play defense until they get touches?  That is nonsense. Trae has elevated his game and the rest of the team needs to as well. 

You can speculate to the cows come home, but here are THE FACTS.  Trae's style of offense isn't gonna work because the BETTER point guards elevate the play of those around them. Trae does not. You think that suddenly, Bogi, Reddish, Hunter, etc. are scrubs?  Nah, they can't find a rhythm with a guy like Trae.  The assists that Trae get are inflated because of his HIGH USAGE.  BY DEFAULT he is gonna have a high assist average.  The problem is those assists don't translate into a efficient offense.  Trae doesn't make anyone around him better.  Every knock about Trae is the same as when he was at Oklahoma.  He is gonna pile up points while his team loses.  The Hawks snuck up on the Knicks and Sixers last season.  Teams are locked on to them now and you see the results:

https://mabsidam.com/2021/02/10/can-you-win-a-championship-with-trae-young-as-your-1/

Trae Young is a throw back volume shooter. Young shoots sub 45% from the field but plays with the belief that his teams best chance at winning is if he can find his rhythm and shoot them to victory, it’s reminiscent of AI in Philly in the early 2000’s. It must be noted however that this style of basketball is very wishy washy when it comes to team results. On one side is Kobe Bryant who led his team to back to back championships being a volume scorer while on the other side are good stats bad team guys like Bradley Beal or Young himself. It’s already worrying that Trae Young is one of the leading faces of the NBA’s current “dribble-dribble-dribble-shoot….” wave but it’s even more concerning when you realize Young is a small guard and this style of basketball is hardest on them as they don’t have the necessary body(well unless you’re AI) to carry the weight of an entire offense.

Accepting Trae Young for who he is as a scorer has to be the first correction the Atlanta Hawks make if they are to build an actual championship team around him. In the last 20 years they’ve only been 3 teams who won a championship where the team’s best player in the finals was an undoubtedly a guard;

2006 – Miami Heat = Dwyane Wade.

2009/2010 – Los Angeles Lakers = Kobe Bryant.

2015 – Golden State Warriors = Steph Curry.

In the 2006 Finals D-Wade was going to the charity stripe about 16 times a game. Kobe was the complete two way player at this point and made first team all defense in both these championship seasons. Curry started to redefine basketball with his all time elite 3 point shooting in 2015. It’s worth wondering which one can be an actual path for Trae Young. The Kobe route is simply impossible because Trae Young will never be that much of an elite defender. The Curry route? He is a very good shooter with great range but isn’t consistent enough as a 3 point shooter to bring the same floor stretching dimensions that Curry brings. The only option is the D-Wade route which actually suits his game quite well;

Trae Young gets to the charity stripe at a shade below Joel Embiid who is a 7 footer. Asking Trae Young to get to the line 15+ times over a 7 game series is very much possible but to fully mirror the 2006 Heat one of the Hawks has to become a more guaranteed scoring threat. In 06 Shaq shot 60% from the field for an easy 20 PPG as D-Wade had a career year averaging 27 PPG on 49.5% shooting. One of the current Hawks has to step up and become a reliable 20 PPG on respectable splits to allow Young room to have bad shooting nights and concentrate on the other sides of his game;

 

[MarylandHawk]

5 minutes ago, Hawkmoor said:

You can speculate to the cows come home, but here are THE FACTS.  Trae's style of offense isn't gonna work because the BETTER point guards elevate the play of those around them. Trae does not. You think that suddenly, Bogi, Reddish, Hunter, etc. are scrubs?  Nah, they can't find a rhythm with a guy like Trae.  The assists that Trae get are inflated because of his HIGH USAGE.  BY DEFAULT he is gonna have a high assist average.  The problem is those assists don't translate into a efficient offense.  Trae doesn't make anyone around him better.  Every knock about Trae is the same as when he was at Oklahoma.  He is gonna pile up points while his team loses.  The Hawks snuck up on the Knicks and Sixers last season.  Teams are locked on to them now and you see the results:

https://mabsidam.com/2021/02/10/can-you-win-a-championship-with-trae-young-as-your-1/

Trae Young is a throw back volume shooter. Young shoots sub 45% from the field but plays with the belief that his teams best chance at winning is if he can find his rhythm and shoot them to victory, it’s reminiscent of AI in Philly in the early 2000’s. It must be noted however that this style of basketball is very wishy washy when it comes to team results. On one side is Kobe Bryant who led his team to back to back championships being a volume scorer while on the other side are good stats bad team guys like Bradley Beal or Young himself. It’s already worrying that Trae Young is one of the leading faces of the NBA’s current “dribble-dribble-dribble-shoot….” wave but it’s even more concerning when you realize Young is a small guard and this style of basketball is hardest on them as they don’t have the necessary body(well unless you’re AI) to carry the weight of an entire offense.

Accepting Trae Young for who he is as a scorer has to be the first correction the Atlanta Hawks make if they are to build an actual championship team around him. In the last 20 years they’ve only been 3 teams who won a championship where the team’s best player in the finals was an undoubtedly a guard;

2006 – Miami Heat = Dwyane Wade.

2009/2010 – Los Angeles Lakers = Kobe Bryant.

2015 – Golden State Warriors = Steph Curry.

In the 2006 Finals D-Wade was going to the charity stripe about 16 times a game. Kobe was the complete two way player at this point and made first team all defense in both these championship seasons. Curry started to redefine basketball with his all time elite 3 point shooting in 2015. It’s worth wondering which one can be an actual path for Trae Young. The Kobe route is simply impossible because Trae Young will never be that much of an elite defender. The Curry route? He is a very good shooter with great range but isn’t consistent enough as a 3 point shooter to bring the same floor stretching dimensions that Curry brings. The only option is the D-Wade route which actually suits his game quite well;

Trae Young gets to the charity stripe at a shade below Joel Embiid who is a 7 footer. Asking Trae Young to get to the line 15+ times over a 7 game series is very much possible but to fully mirror the 2006 Heat one of the Hawks has to become a more guaranteed scoring threat. In 06 Shaq shot 60% from the field for an easy 20 PPG as D-Wade had a career year averaging 27 PPG on 49.5% shooting. One of the current Hawks has to step up and become a reliable 20 PPG on respectable splits to allow Young room to have bad shooting nights and concentrate on the other sides of his game;

 

Those are not facts. That is selective amnesia. He makes others better. Period. He cannot play defense for everyone else.  That effort is their responsibility. He already proved you can win with his style if play when everyone else is giving the right effort. Blame is misplaced. Everybody knew there was a potential for this years team to have chemistry problems because there so many mouths to feed including Dre and Cam that we didn’t before. Throw on top of that the covid protocols and injuries, that chemistry is not there. That has nothing to do with Trae’s style of play. Coaches and other players get paid too. They need to make adjustments. Trae is not beyond this notion of team basketball. He is doing whatever he can. He already stated that passing is his favorite thing to do. I think he would do it even more if his team moves better without the ball. He will probably go down as one of the best assist men in the history of the NBA.  Trae does not pound the ball late into the clock and then make a move like Luka.  You are on point about fast breaks being slowed down by Trae asking for the ball after a defensive rebound. But remember, Nate wants to play with a slower pace so even that isnt entirely on Trae. Yes, Trae is playing a role in how poorly we are performing but he is not the root nor a large part.  We can build a champion around him and I will be here to watch it. 

[Hawkmoor]

8 minutes ago, MarylandHawk said:

Those are not facts. That is selective amnesia. He makes others better. Period. He cannot play defense for everyone else.  That effort is their responsibility. He already proved you can win with his style if play when everyone else is giving the right effort. Blame is misplaced. Everybody knew there was a potential for this years team to have chemistry problems because there so many mouths to feed including Dre and Cam that we didn’t before. Throw on top of that the covid protocols and injuries, that chemistry is not there. That has nothing to do with Trae’s style of play. Coaches and other players get paid too. They need to make adjustments. Trae is not beyond this notion of team basketball. He is doing whatever he can. He already stated that passing is his favorite thing to do. I think he would do it even more if his team moves better without the ball. He will probably go down as one of the best assist men in the history of the NBA.  Trae does not pound the ball late into the clock and then make a move like Luka.  You are on point about fast breaks being slowed down by Trae asking for the ball after a defensive rebound. But remember, Nate wants to play with a slower pace so even that isnt entirely on Trae. Yes, Trae is playing a role in how poorly we are performing but he is not the root nor a large part.  We can build a champion around him and I will be here to watch it. 

Trae can't play defense for himself, much less anyone else.  I stopped reading right after seeing that.