Official Game Thread: Kings at Hawks

[terrell]

3 hours ago, JayBirdHawk said:

 

 

[AHF]

6 minutes ago, NBASupes said:

Kobe is someone who has been penalized by the introduction of zone defense during the middle of his era. Even though he adjusted much quicker than his peers, his peers didn't and if he played in today's NBA with the average player fully adjusted to zone defenses, he would be much better on the average NBA team compared to his era. This impacts Kobe's metrics a ton as well as anyone in his era. Look at T-Mac metrics in his PRIME before and after the introduction of zone defense. 

I wasn't comparing them to Dre. Why are you hung up on that part? 

You aren’t making the direct comparison to Dre.  You are saying the metrics don’t reflect their play as a justification for not looking at Dre’s numbers.  I think that is a bad argument first because some of the metrics do match the eye test on those guys so the premise isn’t sound (that metrics hate these guys) and second because asking why they might not rank as high as some other people by a specific metric is going to lead to a useful insight into the player.  

I think it is also important to look at Dre’s numbers and explore why they rate the way they do.  He is really an extreme outlier for his metrics among players with “massive value” particularly as someone who has been basically a full time starter since day 1 (and so had no period where he was denied the minutes needed to generate a good number unlike someone like Steve Nash as a rarely played young player).

I have yet to see any player whose numbers don’t reflect important things about them.  That includes Kobe, Tmac and AI and Hunter for that matter.

[terrell]

1 hour ago, Spud2nique said:

 

LANDRY BLOWS! One of the guys that would have been great was OG.. 

I really dont think this helps the Knicks all that much.. But we'll see.. IQ gave them good min off the pine, and RJ has been playing better.. Just my opinion..

[terrell]

7 minutes ago, terrell said:

I really dont think this helps the Knicks all that much.. But we'll see.. IQ gave them good min off the pine, and RJ has been playing better.. Just my opinion..

Just saw they got Precious too.. That makes it a lil better for NY..

[NBASupes]

19 minutes ago, AHF said:

You aren’t making the direct comparison to Dre.  You are saying the metrics don’t reflect their play as a justification for not looking at Dre’s numbers.  I think that is a bad argument first because some of the metrics do match the eye test on those guys so the premise isn’t sound (that metrics hate these guys) and second because asking why they might not rank as high as some other people by a specific metric is going to lead to a useful insight into the player.  

I think it is also important to look at Dre’s numbers and explore why they rate the way they do.  He is really an extreme outlier for his metrics among players with “massive value” particularly as someone who has been basically a full time starter since day 1 (and so had no period where he was denied the minutes needed to generate a good number unlike someone like Steve Nash as a rarely played young player).

I have yet to see any player whose numbers don’t reflect important things about them.  That includes Kobe, Tmac and AI and Hunter for that matter.

Once again, you mentioned Dre's draft class. You said he ranks last. His draft class is terrible. Do you think he's the worst player in his draft class? Do you think he's way worse than Jarrett Culver who was once a Hawk? 

I've said it a thousand times, Dre is valuable because of

A. Elite defensive versatility

B. Big wing is hard to find and it's the most critical need in the modern game. He wouldn't be anywhere near as important if this was the 2000s. 

C. He plays a disciplined game. He really doesn't take much risk at all. Extremely risk adverse. 

D. He can shoot and score at all 3 levels. That's hard to find. We learned this year, he can even lead a break. Just showing the versatility of his offensive game. 

 

His lack of risk-taking and injuries do hurt his value. Risk-taking no matter the era matters in the NBA. The fact that he lacks risk-taking on both ends is very damning to say the least. Not too many players like that. 

Edited December 30, 2023 by NBASupes

[terrell]

6 minutes ago, NBASupes said:

Once again, you mentioned Dre's draft class. You said he ranks last. His draft class is terrible. Do you think he's the worst player in his draft class? Do you think he's way worse than Jarrett Culver who was once a Hawk? 

Knicks just moved the 3rd pick.. lol

Edited December 30, 2023 by terrell

[NBASupes]

Just now, terrell said:

Knicks just moves the 3rd pick.. lol

LMAO

[AHF]

14 minutes ago, NBASupes said:

Once again, you mentioned Dre's draft class. You said he ranks last. His draft class is terrible. Do you think he's the worst player in his draft class?  

I don’t think he is the worst player in his class but he is a disappointment for us to date.  For Dre, he is bad by all metrics.  There is one metric that rates him the worst in his class.  It is a cumulative metric so the worst player in the entire class will not rank the lowest because that player needs to have a lot of minutes to drive the metric lower by delivering negative value production combined with big minutes.  This is why you need to look into what the numbers mean when you talk about them.  
 

So if you compare Culver to Hunter you can compare multiple metrics to help flesh things out.  Culver ranks lower than Hunter in several per minute metrics like ws/48 and BPM.  If you look at VORP, the only reason Hunter ranks lower is because he has played almost 3x as many minutes.  If Culver played as many minutes as Hunter, his VORP would be somewhere close to -4.5 which would be worse than Hunter’s -2.4.  
 

So you and I can agree on Hunter being drastically better than Culver and the numbers prove that out including the cumulative WS number which dramatically favors Dre.

Look across all the numbers, evaluate them with as much context as possible, and they tell a story that is very useful.  This applies to Hunter, Culver, and Ja from their overall lackluster class.  But man I’d like to see Hunter ranking higher is all these stats against such weak competition.

[Diesel]

2 hours ago, Spud2nique said:

 

LANDRY BLOWS! One of the guys that would have been great was OG.. 

It could have been Masai was leveraging us vs. NY with OG going to the best bidder... which is why you have Barrett and Quickly.   Our deal may have been either DJ or Bogi and Masai probably wanted both. 

 

 

[terrell]

Grizzlies have 1 less win than the Hawks.. And Ja missed 25 games...

Good grief..

[NBASupes]

25 minutes ago, AHF said:

I don’t think he is the worst player in his class but he is a disappointment for us to date.  For Dre, he is bad by all metrics.  There is one metric that rates him the worst in his class.  It is a cumulative metric so the worst player in the entire class will not rank the lowest because that player needs to have a lot of minutes to drive the metric lower by delivering negative value production combined with big minutes.  This is why you need to look into what the numbers mean when you talk about them.  
 

So if you compare Culver to Hunter you can compare multiple metrics to help flesh things out.  Culver ranks lower than Hunter in several per minute metrics like ws/48 and BPM.  If you look at VORP, the only reason Hunter ranks lower is because he has played almost 3x as many minutes.  If Culver played as many minutes as Hunter, his VORP would be somewhere close to -4.5 which would be worse than Hunter’s -2.4.  
 

So you and I can agree on Hunter being drastically better than Culver and the numbers prove that out including the cumulative WS number which dramatically favors Dre.

Look across all the numbers, evaluate them with as much context as possible, and they tell a story that is very useful.  This applies to Hunter, Culver, and Ja from their overall lackluster class.  But man I’d like to see Hunter ranking higher is all these stats against such weak competition.

He's not a metrics guy.

 

VORP is essentially BPM combined with minutes played. It's calculated as (ASPM + Replacement Player Level)*%min.

Dre literally had value in what I've posted. His metrics would be much higher with a better-supporting cast. Dre is a fluid player. He's basically like Crystal Water favors. You add it to water. If you add it to bad water, it's might taste bad but it's the same Dre. 

Dre is better than most his class

 

https://www.basketball-reference.com/draft/NBA_2019.html

I'll take Dre over Brandon Clarke. 

I'll take Dre over Jaxson Hayes

Ja, Zion, Garland, Cam Johnson, and Herro. I'll take over Dre. 

I would take Dre over Matisse Tybulle and it's not close. 

 

Matisse is an advanced metrics darling but always gets played off the court cause he can't shoot or drive. Who you taking, him or Dre who's bad at adv metrics? 

Edited December 30, 2023 by NBASupes

[Peoriabird]

Why do we have to have these never ending debates about Dre? They are simply not worth it! This has been obvious for years!  The usual go to is the Hawks lose because of Dre despite the Hawks struggling to win without him. Once you see those two paradigm, time to end these nonsensical discussions period

[terrell]

42 minutes ago, AHF said:

I don’t think he is the worst player in his class but he is a disappointment for us to date.  For Dre, he is bad by all metrics.  There is one metric that rates him the worst in his class.  It is a cumulative metric so the worst player in the entire class will not rank the lowest because that player needs to have a lot of minutes to drive the metric lower by delivering negative value production combined with big minutes.  This is why you need to look into what the numbers mean when you talk about them.  
 

So if you compare Culver to Hunter you can compare multiple metrics to help flesh things out.  Culver ranks lower than Hunter in several per minute metrics like ws/48 and BPM.  If you look at VORP, the only reason Hunter ranks lower is because he has played almost 3x as many minutes.  If Culver played as many minutes as Hunter, his VORP would be somewhere close to -4.5 which would be worse than Hunter’s -2.4.  
 

So you and I can agree on Hunter being drastically better than Culver and the numbers prove that out including the cumulative WS number which dramatically favors Dre.

Look across all the numbers, evaluate them with as much context as possible, and they tell a story that is very useful.  This applies to Hunter, Culver, and Ja from their overall lackluster class.  But man I’d like to see Hunter ranking higher is all these stats against such weak competition.

Dre Trade value has now plummeted to new depths with his latest knee injury and procedure. Why would any team want to bring in a 90 million dollar player with bad knees? We continually pay big money to stiffs who don’t help you win much (JC, Hunter, and now OO). Smfh

Edited December 30, 2023 by terrell

[terrell]

6 minutes ago, Peoriabird said:

Why do we have to have these never ending debates about Dre? They are simply not worth it! This has been obvious for years!  The usual go to is the Hawks lose because of Dre despite the Hawks struggling to win without him. Once you see those two paradigm, time to end these nonsensical discussions period

TBF you and @NBASupes brought up Dre

You asked who the new scapegoat was

Then @NBASupes said he told us so are something.. lol

Just saying..

 

[Peoriabird]

Just now, terrell said:

TBF you and @NBASupes brought up Dre

You asked who the new scapegoat was

Then @NBASupes said he told us so are something.. lol

Just saying..

 

Noone answered the question...who is the new scape goat because I want to know since the team can't seem to beat the worst teams in the league now?

[terrell]

1 minute ago, Peoriabird said:

Noone answered the question...who is the new scape goat because I want to know since the team can't seem to beat the worst teams in the league now?

I did..

[Peoriabird]

2 minutes ago, terrell said:

I did..

3 coaches now?

[terrell]

16 minutes ago, Peoriabird said:

3 coaches now?

Well thats who I see getting most of the blame right now..

Ive ALWAYS said its bad roster construction..

Red Auerbach himself isnt fixing this shit like I said

Too small, Too soft, We lack a closer, horrible POA defense, streaky shooters, turnovers, Bad rebounding, etc...I can go on and on.....We're a mess..

Edited December 30, 2023 by terrell

[AHF]

On 12/30/2023 at 3:47 PM, NBASupes said:

Matisse is an advanced metrics darling but always gets played off the court cause he can't shoot or drive. Who you taking, him or Dre who's bad at adv metrics? 

You know I don't love players who can't shoot or can't drive but I'm not still not fully on board with your post.

Thybulle has played every game this season and is averaging more minutes than his career average so he is definitely playing (and not getting played off the court all the time).  In fact, he has played more minutes this season than Dre has.  (Because Dre can't say healthy).

He isn't an advanced metrics darling.  He is a mixed bag for advanced metrics.  Some are solid, some are pedestrian.  He often rates positive on defense and negative on offense with a net positive impact.  You look at all the numbers and look at him on the floor and to me you see a limited player who is effective at what he does but is also limited because of what he can't do.  He doesn't blow anyone away with his +0.2 RAPTOR last season (RAPTOR isn't updated yet this year) or his paltry 11 PER this season and last.

I wouldn't trade Dre for him but I don't think his numbers are terribly unfair either.  Why can't Dre do what he does except shoot the ball?  If Dre did that, he would have excellent metrics.  Goes to some of the things Dre can't do as well.

As an aside, the Hawks year to date play a net -4.3 points (worse) per 100 possessions when Dre is on the floor versus when he is off.  https://www.82games.com/2324/23ATL9.HTM#onoff  This is not a starter / bench player thing as the team is +5.8 points better with Trae on the floor.  (The rest of the team is a mixed bag with CC and Murray negative and JJ, Bogi, Bey positive).  Portland is +2.1 points better with Thybulle on the court.  Definitely a sample size issue where things could level out over the remainder of the season but this is another area where Dre has never looked very good which you'd think would not be the case given the lack of alternatives behind him as far as wing defenders.

[Atlantaholic]

On 12/30/2023 at 10:44 AM, SalvorMallow said:

You been missing games this year bro? You think I have to cherry pick film to show DJ getting burned on the perimeter? He's an absolute sieve who over-gambles and loses focus, especially off-ball. Even on-ball though, his point of attack defense has been atrocious. Both PGs and SGs walk right past him to the rim.

His advanced metrics in SA were nothing special. I can see why now.