Official Game Thread: Hawks at Mavericks

[AHF]

18 minutes ago, KB21 said:

Go ahead.  Find a coach that makes his decisions based on 6 shots instead of nearly 3,000 shots.  I'll show you a coach who is an idiot when you find him.  

You have not spent much time around coaches if you don't think they routinely give more minutes to guys who are playing well and fewer minutes to guys who are having a bad game.  This is super basic, KB.  Come on.  You aren't seriously pretending this doesn't happen every single day in the NBA are you?

It occurs to me that you may be strawmanning this as well.  The idea isn't that you play Malachi Flynn over LeBron James just because one hits a couple shots or misses a couple shots.  The idea is that a player who averages 20 mpg may get 28 when they are hot and 12 when they are cold.  Rotations are set based on large data sets.  Coaches then make adjustments based on how a player is playing a particular night.  It is like if a guy is favoring a leg because of a minor injury.  You can see they are less likely than normal to give you what you want so they play less.  When a guy is nailing everything early, coaches likewise give them some additional run to see if they can keep it up.

You see this defensively too.  When a defender makes some big plays or is having success in a particular matchup or is struggling, coaches will adjust to give more or fewer minutes as a result.

[KB21]

1 minute ago, AHF said:

You have not spent much time around coaches if you don't think they routinely give more minutes to guys who are playing well and fewer minutes to guys who are having a bad game.  This is super basic, KB.  Come on.  You aren't seriously pretending this doesn't happen every single day in the NBA are you?

No coach that is credible in the NBA is going to sit Bogdan Bogdanovic for an extended period of time just because Garrison Mathews scored 14 points in the first half.  

There are some on here that simply don't like Quin because of what he emphasizes as a coach.  This idea that he doesn't coach based on the "feel of the game" is not a legitimate criticism.  

[AHF]

26 minutes ago, KB21 said:

No coach that is credible in the NBA is going to sit Bogdan Bogdanovic for an extended period of time just because Garrison Mathews scored 14 points in the first half.  

There are some on here that simply don't like Quin because of what he emphasizes as a coach.  This idea that he doesn't coach based on the "feel of the game" is not a legitimate criticism.  

I'm not even talking about Quin.  I'm certainly not advocating for Quin to sit Bogi for an extended period because Garrison scored 14 points.  

I am making two points:

1. The hot hand phenomenon is not a fallacy as it is supported by the modern research (i.e., non-1980s research) and at least is an open question even per the article you cited as definitive proof that it was a fallacy;
2. Coaches routinely alter their rotations to give some additional playing time or fewer minutes based on a player's performance in a particular game.

Bogi is actually a great example of this.  He has some games where he is really hot and some where he is really cold.  Most coaches will give him more run in the game where he is hot versus the games where he is cold.

And what do we see in the data for guys who similarly provide value primarily through their shooting for the Hawks?

When Bey shot the ball better than his season average, he averages 1 minutes and 5 seconds more playing time.

When Bogi shot the ball better than his season average, he has averaged 1 minute and 22 second more playing time.

When Mathews shot the ball better than his season average, he has averaged just under 1 minute more playing time.  (Excluding games with fewer than 3 shots since I do think you need a few shots to expect a coach to react.)

This is wholly unsurprising from my perspective but is probably shocking from your perspective if you think Quin completely ignores how guys whose primary value is shooting the ball are performing when deciding how much time to give them.  I'm not someone saying Quin never gives more playing time to guys when they are shooting well.  Whether he apportioned minutes optimally in a particular game is up for discussion, but coaches routinely do and should adjust minutes based on player performance.  (Which to be clear doesn't mean that you completely bench someone or make a bench scrub your biggest minutes guy because they miss or make a few shots.)

[KB21]

Those minutes/seconds changes are negligible at best, and I would suspect that Quin makes more decisions based on match ups than he does based on who has the "hot hand".  It's like Dejounte's game against Boston.  Dejounte wasn't shooting all that well in that game, but the match up and the way Boston plays defense up top dictated that he takes a lot of three-point shots in that game.  Quin even told him before that game that he should probably take around 16 three-point shots based on how Boston defends up top.  

[Gray Mule]

Watched the entire game.

Ending of the second quarter was our downfall.  Down by 8 and never recovered.  Hawks looked tired with all their energy spent by the end of the game.

I thought that, all the starters being so tired, the bench would have been better closing out this one.  We just stopped before the game was over.  Couldn't make a shot.

Hawks were not very good from the three, making 13 of 38 and, why didn't they try to hit the three-ball late in the game.  They were behind, drove the ball and turned it over.  not the way to play catch-up.

Free throws are free.  Hawks didn't do very well on theirs.  14/21 - We could have used those points!

I'm not one to complain a lot about the officiating but last night's was terribly one sided against the Hawks.

Luca, with all his mighty ability, is a really big cry-baby.  Why?  It sure makes him look bad.  

A rested Hawk team and good officiating would have won last night's game, I believe.  

Capela has his good games and his bad games.  Last night was terrible.  To all the remaining injured Hawks, get well soon!

 

[Diesel]

Quin has to learn how to ride the hot hand.   On the 2nd night of a B2B and being out of town,   You can't ride your regulars for 36+ minutes.  They won't give you enough.  If you find a hot hand, you ride it til it goes cold.  If you look at our scoring, it spells out fatigue.   As the game got longer, our shots were worse. 

Also, we can't be a 3 pt shooting team on the 2nd night of a b2b on the road.  The shots will do exactly what we saw them do.. fall short.  I hope it was a good learning experience.   Good defense from Hunter.   Good play from Matthews, KB, and Bruno.  Live and Learn.

 

[KB21]

Our fans need to learn that riding the hot hand is a poor strategy, and that Quin is an elite coach.  

[AHF]

21 minutes ago, KB21 said:

Our fans need to learn that riding the hot hand is a poor strategy, and that Quin is an elite coach.  

(Do you have something more than a debunked 1985 study on the first point?)

Quin is an excellent coach who has to produce elite results before he will be considered elite.  Right now, his process is different but results are similar to Nate’s.  Too many first and second round exits.