Let's Talk Draft Picks

[Buzzard]

Aggregate Mock Draft as of 4-4-20

https://hoopshype.com/2020/04/04/2020-aggregate-nba-mock-draft-5-0-international-prospects-are-rising/

Biggest surprise for me is Haliburton is dropping.

[mrhonline]

You can't see the full list in the tweet.  Here it is:

[sturt]

Um.

This is the first I've ever heard of the theory, so not getting horse before cart here, I'd have liked for the tweeter to provide some support for the premise... what's his basis for reaching that conclusion?

Aside: I realize it's not nice to question the conclusions of individuals who generate content for blog sites (in this case, his own), so to the thinner-skinned among us, I would ask in advance that you would please accept my apologies for being so insulting.

 

 

[sturt]

On 4/23/2020 at 7:26 AM, Buzzard said:

Aggregate Mock Draft as of 4-4-20

https://hoopshype.com/2020/04/04/2020-aggregate-nba-mock-draft-5-0-international-prospects-are-rising/

Biggest surprise for me is Haliburton is dropping.

Might be less that he's dropping, and others who didn't get hurt mid-season are rising. Might be.

But good for us... I'd love to have the chance to drop down and get him plus some other asset.

[sturt]

1 hour ago, sturt said:

Um.

This is the first I've ever heard of the theory, so not getting horse before cart here, I'd have liked for the tweeter to provide some support for the premise... what's his basis for reaching that conclusion?

 

I asked. And to his credit, Murray got back to me, and this is mainly what he referenced.

 

Essentially used 2016-17 NBA results for rookies with a large enough college or Europe sample size in both 3pt and FT attempts as its basis.

The correlation really doesn't appear to get that impressively tighter until you get to that last one, comparing NBA rookies' 3pt% results with the average of their pre-professional 3pt% and FT%.

So, his analysis above seems to be more something interesting to look at than it is giving us some strong predictor. Perhaps if he'd chosen to do the average instead of just the FT%, it would have helped... and not sure why he didn't, since it would have only meant one more column/formula in Excel.

Also, it sure would strengthen the validity of the premise to have taken the time to run at least one other year's rookies, and if somewhat different results from that 2016-17 dataset, then a third as well.

 

[JayBirdHawk]

What do you draft guru's know about this kid?  Where's his pick range?

 

 

 

 

[mrhonline]

On 4/24/2020 at 12:02 PM, sturt said:

The correlation really doesn't appear to get that impressively tighter...

 

You aren't going to find a strong correlation for virtually any stat, but the link between FT% and eventual 3FG% is a fairly well accepted idea.  Is that what you're disputing?

I should add that the best predictor of NBA 3FG% is NCAA 3FG%.  Looking at FT% is helpful when trying to predict whether a player will improve in the pros (as many do).

[sturt]

11 minutes ago, mrhonline said:

Is that what you're disputing?

I'd prefer "healthy skepticism."  

Just reviewing what the guy fed back to me.

[JayBirdHawk]

 

 

[JayBirdHawk]

 

Quote

7. Atlanta Hawks

Isaac Okoro | 6-6 wing | 18 years old, freshman | Auburn

The Hawks need two things: help on the wing and more defensive talent. Those are the skills they have to put around Trae Young. At the trade deadline, they went about shoring up the center position defensively by acquiring Clint Capela. Now they can do that in the draft by taking Okoro. He makes all of the little plays across the court, including playing great defense both on ball and in a team construct. In fact, I thought he was one of the best defenders across college hoops despite only being 18. He’s great at mirroring opposing perimeter players’ footwork, great in help and extremely smart in rotation.

Really, Okoro is just a winning player. That Auburn won a lot of close games this year isn’t an accident. The Tigers got timely scoring from some of their older guards and Okoro helped them manufacture points through effort, athleticism and an incredibly high feel for the game. It’s also not an accident that they looked like a mess when Okoro missed a few games because of injury in February.

I don’t think there’s a better fit for the Hawks, even if I do have some real questions about Okoro’s offense long-term. While he is one of the best above-the-rim finishers in the country, his jump shot is still kind of a mess. He shot 29 percent from 3 this year, and has some real mechanical questions that he’s going to have to work out. Shooting is the key skill for him. Offensively, he’ll go as far as the jumper goes. But he is a good driver with strong body control to maneuver around defenders and get to the basket. He also generally takes smart shots and doesn’t play outside of his skills. Okoro will get looks as high as No. 3, depending on who gets the pick, and won’t get out of the lottery.

 

[Spud2nique]

43 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

 

 

I have Okoro and Okongwu as two of my top guys.

[marco102]

23 hours ago, Spud2nique said:

I have Okoro and Okongwu as two of my top guys.

@Spud2nique sees an African last name.

 

[NBASupes]

On 4/24/2020 at 5:08 AM, mrhonline said:

You can't see the full list in the tweet.  Here it is:

Both UK guards at the top are top end defenders. I wonder if energy is hurting their percentages more than anything else. This doesn't impact year 1 but if you are projecting down the line, this could mean something. 

[NBASupes]

39 minutes ago, marco102 said:

@Spud2nique sees an African last name.

 

Igbo in particular. 

[Spud2nique]

1 hour ago, marco102 said:

@Spud2nique sees an African last name.

 

Marco. Seriously I dig the boys from Africa. I remember a few drafts ago two of my favs were OG Anon and Semi Oj. 
 

I’m not alone in this..Ujiri too!  

[thecampster]

http://www.tankathon.com/

If you want to know where we stand right now pre-lottery.

    Team            top 4       top 1

1. Golden State    52.1%    14.0%

2. Cleveland    52.1%    14.0%

3. Minnesota    52.1%    14.0%

4. Atlanta      48.1%    12.5%

5. Detroit      42.1%    10.5%

6. New York     37.2%    9.0%

7. Chicago      32.0%    7.5%

8. Charlotte    26.3%    6.0%

9. Washington   20.3%    4.5%

10. Phoenix     13.9%    3.0%

11. San Antonio  9.4%    2.0%

12. Sacramento   6.2%    1.3%

13. New Orleans  5.7%    1.2%

14. Portland     2.4%    0.5%

 

 

One side note:

We don't have 2 picks this year. I forgot we gave up the Brooklyn pick to Minnesota.

Edited April 30, 2020 by thecampster

[JayBirdHawk]

 

Quote

The 6-foot-9 forward would offer the Hawks a lot of what they currently need — a secondary playmaker who has positional flexibility on the wing both offensively and defensively. The shooting is a concern, but it’s to a lesser degree than it is for Okoro. Avdija shot 34 percent from 3-point range on 119 attempts but an abysmal 51 percent from the free-throw line in the Israeli league for Maccabi Tel Aviv. On the youth international circuit, Avdija made 36 percent of 155 attempts from 3.

 

[Spud2nique]

48 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

 

 

So you know how you get a euro Doncic and everyone gets excited. Well this guy seems a bit too overrated for me. Im not sure I like this guy. There Stu and Marco, there’s a guy I don’t like. Spud doesn’t like every player. 

[TheFuzz]

On 4/30/2020 at 3:32 PM, Spud2nique said:

So you know how you get a euro Doncic and everyone gets excited. Well this guy seems a bit too overrated for me. Im not sure I like this guy. There Stu and Marco, there’s a guy I don’t like. Spud doesn’t like every player. 

I'm not in love with him because of the shooting concerns. HOWEVER, I think the rest of his game is interesting. Depending on how legit his defense is he might actually be an ok fit.

Here's a crazy thought: what if we drafted Cole Anthony? The percentages aren't good but the tape is nice. Maybe Cam convinced me not to worry about percentages lol. I think Anthony looks better than he did frankly.

[Spud2nique]

19 minutes ago, TheFuzz said:

Here's a crazy thought: what if we drafted Cole Anthony? The percentages aren't good but the tape is nice. Maybe Cam convinced me not to worry about percentages lol. I think Anthony looks better than he did frankly.

Ya I think it’s possible that he could be the BPA if we draft around the 6 or 7 pick. I don’t mind it.