Official Game Thread: Bucks at Hawks

[AHF]

On 4/17/2021 at 10:01 PM, REHawksFan said:

But we aren't talking about players that take 4 shots a game.  When guys are taking 17-22 attempts it lessens the impact of fts you are talking about. 

And why should we ignore one of traes elite abilities in drawing fouls? When talking about efficient scorers, the ability to create fta and gets points from the line is an asset that not all players have. I don't think its fair to ignore that for Trae to try to paint him as inefficient. He just gets his points differently than others. 

 

 

Late back on this but I hope you know that TS% doesn't ignore the impact of free throws.  It just doesn't over emphasize them.  If they are garnered from non-shooting situations, they are disproportionately inflating a guy's points per shot.  If you make 2 of 6 three point shots and are fouled on 2 more of them (which don't count as FGA) and end up hitting 4 of 6 FTs, that isn't very efficient but it looks pretty great from a point per shot perspective.  10 points on 6 shots = ~1.7 points per shot which is league leading even though 33% on 3pt shots and 67% on FTs is not very good.

Please research TS% if you think it doesn't give him credit for getting to the line.  It absolutely does - as long as the guy is efficient on his free throw shots (which Trae is).  PPS give you big positive credit for free throws even if you are inefficient on them.  

Using another example, these three guys should have roughly the same scoring efficiency:

Player 1 - Uses 20 possessions to score.  Hits 12 of 20 2pt shots for 24 points.  That is a 60% TS%.  That is a 1.2 pps.

Player 2 - Uses 20 possessions to score.  Hits 6 of 14 2pt shots and is fouled on 6 possessions and draws an "and one"; hits 12 of 13 free throws for 24 points.  That is a 60.85% TS%.  That is a 1.71 pps.

Player 3 - Uses 20 possessions to score.  Hits 3 of 7 3pt shots, 4 of 10 2pt, and is fouled on 3 possessions (one 3) and draws an "and one" on another hitting 7 of 8 fts.  That is a 58.5% TS%.  That is 1.41 pps.

 

All 3 players use the same number of possessions to score the same number of points so they should have roughly the same scoring efficiency. 

The range on TS% is pretty small:  58.5% - 60% - 60.85%.  The top number here is 4% higher than the lowest one (60.85% / 58.5% = 1.04).

The range on PPS is huge:  1.2 pps - 1.41 pps - 1.71 pps.  The top number here is 42.5% higher than the lowest one (1.71 / 1.2 = 1.425).

Using the PPS chart on the other page, seasonal performance along those lines ranks the player:  #47 in the league - #18 in the league - #1 in the league.

 

Note that all these free throws here are coming from scoring possessions.  The difference exacerbates significantly if you start adding in non-shooting free throws (pps improves no matter how ugly the ft% while TS% rises only if the ft% is pretty good).

Again, neither metric ignores free throws but one much more appropriately weights those free throws than the other, imo.

 

[bleachkit]

13 minutes ago, AHF said:

Late back on this but I hope you know that TS% doesn't ignore the impact of free throws.  It just doesn't over emphasize them.  If they are garnered from non-shooting situations, they are disproportionately inflating a guy's points per shot.  If you make 2 of 6 three point shots and are fouled on 2 more of them (which don't count as FGA) and end up hitting 4 of 6 FTs, that isn't very efficient but it looks pretty great from a point per shot perspective.  10 points on 6 shots = ~1.7 points per shot which is league leading even though 33% on 3pt shots and 67% on FTs is not very good.

Please research TS% if you think it doesn't give him credit for getting to the line.  It absolutely does - as long as the guy is efficient on his free throw shots (which Trae is).  PPS give you big positive credit for free throws even if you are inefficient on them.  

Using another example, these three guys should have roughly the same scoring efficiency:

Player 1 - Uses 20 possessions to score.  Hits 12 of 20 2pt shots for 24 points.  That is a 60% TS%.  That is a 1.2 pps.

Player 2 - Uses 20 possessions to score.  Hits 6 of 14 2pt shots and is fouled on 6 possessions and draws an "and one"; hits 12 of 13 free throws for 24 points.  That is a 60.85% TS%.  That is a 1.71 pps.

Player 3 - Uses 20 possessions to score.  Hits 3 of 7 3pt shots, 4 of 10 2pt, and is fouled on 3 possessions (one 3) and draws an "and one" on another hitting 7 of 8 fts.  That is a 58.5% TS%.  That is 1.41 pps.

 

All 3 players use the same number of possessions to score the same number of points so they should have roughly the same scoring efficiency. 

The range on TS% is pretty small:  58.5% - 60% - 60.85%.  The top number here is 4% higher than the lowest one.

The range on PPS is huge:  1.2 pps - 1.41 pps - 1.71 pps.  The top number here is 42.5% higher than the lowest one.

Using the PPS chart on the other page, seasonal performance along those lines ranks the player:  #47 in the league - #18 in the league - #1 in the league.

 

Note that all these free throws here are coming from scoring possessions.  The difference exacerbates significantly if you start adding in non-shooting free throws (pps improves no matter how ugly the ft% while TS% rises only if the ft% is pretty good).

Again, neither metric ignores free throws but one much more appropriately weights those free throws than the other, imo.

 

Outstanding summation! TS% is clearly superior to PPS as a quantitative metric.