Official Game Thread: Bucks at Hawks

[lethalweapon3]

“Aaron-ald Mac-Donald, YOU’RE NEXT! What am I, a clown? Do I amuse you?”

 

Tonight, it’s a tale of two coaches.

There was one coach who was routinely meeting rational franchise expectations during the regular season. While skepticism abounded among the fanbase, ownership and management raved of the coach’s achievements, so much so they offered him an extension to demonstrate their confidence and (short-term) commitment, a full season before the coach’s “free agency” could arrive.

But then, despite the adversity of an injured star or two, another uncompetitive finish in the NBA Playoffs had the fanbase grumbling and management compelled to do something drastic to shake things up, perhaps to save themselves. Thus, the well-established coach, fresh off a newly-minted contract extension, gets canned with due haste.

That’s about where Indiana was last summer with Nate McMillan, now a Top-20 all-time NBA winner and the Atlanta Hawks’ not-interim-for-long head coach. This spring, that’s the likely situation Jon Horst and company will face regarding Mike Budenholzer, the two-time NBA Coach of the Year who brings his Milwaukee Bucks to Atlanta before yet another primetime audience (7:30 PM Eastern, TNT, 92.9 FM in ATL), and a growing number of Bucks fans giving Coach Bud the side-eye.

There aren’t many professional coaches that can call their own shots coming off a 24-58 season. But Budenholzer, an eventual lame-duck victim of the Ferry and Friends fiasco in Atlanta, still had a Poptree pedigree in his pocket, while the Hawks’ peak franchise season of 2014-15 remained fresh in many struggling rivals’ minds. The coach with the 24-58 record had his choice of suitors even before the 2017-18 season could end with a soft firing by Atlanta GM Travis Schlenk.

He settled on a team that had the burgeoning star, Giannis Antetokounmpo, that by all rights should have been Atlanta’s, as we all know by now how the draft story Drew itself up. Budenholzer inked a four-year deal, and the timing was perfect. Just as the Hawks’ 60-22 season of 2015 coincided with LeBron James leaving Atlanta’s division beforehand, the Bucks’ emergence with the Greek Freak to the exact same record occurred after LeBron left not only Milwaukee’s division, but the Eastern Conference for the first time in his storied career.

Now, the Bucks’ tidy playoff exits are being comman-deer-ed by slightly less heralded folks, named Kawhi and Jimmy, that had just arrived with their new playoff teams. As Milwaukee (34-20, 3^rd in NBA East, certain to be down from last season’s 56-17 first-place finish) completes a second-straight year of sliding downward in winning percentage, and as the playoffs near, this time, with a #1 seed and “homecourt advantage” throughout becoming less likely, there’s a queasy feeling permeating throughout Wisconsin, and the pandemic variant strains have little to do with it.

Horst has been doing what he could to solidify and improve the team around his reigning two-time MVP. Antetokounmpo signed his five-year, $228 million extension deal just ahead of the season opener. Horst sent a slew of first-round picks and pick swaps to New Orleans to covert Eric Bledsoe into Jrue Holiday. Then, he recently handed the guard a four-year extension worth up to $160 million, making Holiday a third pillar with current top-contract Khris Middleton and Giannis.

Useful additions Bobby Portis and Bryn Forbes (47.1 3FG% and 44.9 3FG%, respectively) were acquired as free agents in the offseason. At the Trade Deadline, Horst turned some D.J.s into a P.J., sending Messrs. Augustin and Wilson to Houston for P.J. Tucker and Rodions Kurucs. Not the best deadline pilfering of the Rockets in recent times, but it’ll do.

Adding to the veteran presence and depth before the playoffs, former Hawks All-Star and new free agent Jeff Teague was brought back into the Budfold. The soon-to-be 33-year-old is no Malcolm Brogdon, but as long as Holiday (career-bests of 56.3 2FG% and 39.9 3FG%) can remain healthy, Teague (1-for-7 FGs as a sub in past two Bucks road wins, but 8-for-11 as a replacement starter vs. CHA last Friday) will do just fine.

Questionable for this evening, Giannis (DNP’d last six games) has been riddled with knee soreness, and the up-and-down nature of the Bucks’ performances without him in recent weeks has unnerved Bucks Nation. If he’s again gimpy at playoff time, and the Bucks bow out in unconvincing fashion yet again, Horst understands he can’t fire the players. At the same time, there’s pressure to lock down Budenholzer for the sake of continuity, lest he kindly ask for permission to go job-hunting again when things go south this time next year.

Mitchell Maurer of SB Nation’s BrewHoop ran Twitter polls to check the temperature of Bucks fans earlier this week, as the regular season rounds the final corner. While polls rarely turn out folks who are satisfied with anything, it was notable that 69 percent of respondents expressed either uneasiness or nervousness about Milwaukee’s playoff readiness. When pried further to categorize their feelings, only 15 percent cited “health/injury” worries, while over 45 percent chose “Coaching concerns,” and I don’t think any of them mean Darvin Ham.

Budball has a different feel to it this season, I posit, because “3-and-speeD” hasn’t been as simple an approach. The Bucks have always lugged along vets to pair with Giannis and Middleton, particularly those who can clear out the paint to let Giannis get Freaky deeky. But center Brook Lopez (33.8 3FG%) has regressed from his peak 2018-19 season (36.5 3FG%) as a perimeter option and a rim-protector (1.4 BPG, down from a career-best 2.4 last year as an All-Defensive Second-Teamer). That’s caused Budenholzer to rely more on bug-eyed Bobby Buckets to hold the fort in the middle, certainly more than Portis has been accustomed to doing in his career, along with the aging Tucker, and Giannis himself.

Antetokoumpo has improved markedly as a passer (career-high 6.2 APG), but he hasn’t made strides as a perimeter or free-throw shooter. Posting a league-best 3.09 Defensive RPM among power forwards in 2019-20, last season’s Defensive Player of the Year winner has ebbed to a fair-to-middlin’ 0.58 thus far, further harming his chances to three-peat as MVP even if Milwaukee (3.5 games behind first-place Philly) makes a late run toward the top of the NBA East.

In contrast to McMillan’s Hawks, every member of the Bucks’ core, aside from 24-year-old Donte DiVincenzo, is now comfortably on the other side of age 25. As that brings the “Win-Now” wails from Wisconsites to a boil, the high pace of play characterized by Bud-coached teams (MIL’s 104.6 Pace in April is an NBA-high) are becoming more reliant on synapse than pure muscle-twitch.

As @Spud2nique noted recently, the Bucks are a bit road-weary, the Hornets game representing the only interruption in a spate of road contests that stretches to nine tonight in Atlanta. Milwaukee (23-20 outside the Central Division) caught a bit of a break for unfortunate reasons, the curfew in Minneapolis forcing what was to be last night’s romp over the Timberwolves to be played and wrapped up a few hours earlier. While the Bucks will return home after tonight, the confines won’t be so comfy with the Grizzlies, Suns and 76ers (twice) paying them visits.

Holiday is the designated ball-stopper on pick-and-rolls (NBA-high 7.7 P&R ball-handler possessions defended per game), but even Jrue gives up more buckets than he’d like (NBA-high 7.0 P&R ball-handler PPG allowed), in part because Bud demands the fouls be kept low (NBA-best 17.9 FTAs/game allowed), in part because of his team’s loosening defensive presence around the rim.

The current NBA scoring leader among those ball-handlers on P&R plays? None other than Atlanta’s Trae Young (NBA-high 13.9 PPG, 0.5 more than lucky-ducky Luka). Heading into this primetime matchup on a back-to-back, the Bucks hope that, as with the status of Danilo Gallinari (sore footsie), Trae (bruised calf) will remain on the “out” side of questionable.

Young, who joined Clint Capela in sitting out Atlanta’s 129-115 loss in Milwaukee on January 24, also leads The Association with 2.7 APG off drives. If he plays tonight, you can bet that Forbes and Middleton will be tasked with helping Holiday (career-high 1.8 SPG) and DiVincenzo (questionable, sore toe) keep hands in the dime jar.

With or without Giannis, Milwaukee thrives on superior marksmanship (56.5 team 3FG%, 3^rd in NBA). To counter, Atlanta will need to keep the volume of floaters and lobs high, and the turnovers and circus shots low. Milwaukee will do all it can to have someone less capable than Young kicking the ball out the paint, particularly to another fellow that was unavailable for that January contest, Bogdan Bogdanovic (last 9 games: 21.8 PPG, 52.7 3FG%, 4.3 APG, Shaq’s pronunciation tonight will be a doozy), or another shot-creator who was on another team at the time, Lou Williams (last 7 games: 52.4 3FG%, 12.9 bench PPG; 5.8 assists per-36). Hey, Chuck, who Lou play for?

Back in January, John Collins, De’Andre Hunter and Gallinari carried the day for Atlanta, at the time a hopeful 8-8, with 80 of the Hawks’ 115 points in defeat. As Atlanta’s defense held the Bucks to an uncharacteristic 32.3 3FG% shooting display, Milwaukee needed Giannis to do a little bit of everything to keep the pesky Hawks at bay. This contest, as will be the case in ten days when these teams meet on the State Farm Arena floor again, is shaping up to be a whole new ballgame.

Having already turned around the Hawks’ fortunes, McMillan is under little pressure to prove what he can do with the keys he was handed barely 45 days ago. Closing out the regular season, and individual games, strong enough to merit a Play-In-averting seed is the name of the game going forward.

Trying to keep their string of victories versus Eastern opponents un-snapped (7-0) since McMillan took the reins full-time, Atlanta (30-25, now closer to #1 Philly than to #11 Toronto) lapsed in the final two minutes of Tuesday’s 108-103 win in Tampato. That the coach and the players recognized it for what it was is a sign of growth. After securing, hopefully, a Top-6 spot, all that should matter to Hawks Inc. is whether McMillan’s troops can at least avoid being swept in Woodsonian fashion to a top-tier team like Milwaukee, or otherwise embarrassed by lesser rivals like Charlotte, in the first round.

If everyone gets and stays healthy at playoff time, the prospects of the Bucks making it out of the East and to The Finals is arguably as tough as ever under the Bud regime. Getting past Joel Embiid’s Sixers and the star-studded Brooklynites (happy trails, LaMarcus) in the second and final round of the Eastern Conference playoffs would be a tall order for anybody. For the Bucks, a healthier, well-coached and gelling team like the Hawks (7-1 this month, despite missing an abundance of key players) could pose problems in the opening series, certainly more fight and adversity than Nikola Vucevic and James Ennis could put up in last year’s Bubble.

If Bud’s Bucks stop here, the eyebrows and the questions are sure to arise. Will Milwaukee want Bud to stick around? Will Antetokounmpo want Bud to stick around? Does Giannis even know what he does want? Say, Freak, if you want your team to dip into the well of fired Hawks coaches once more, Lloyd Pierce is still available, I’m just saying. Heck, why not the Bucks’ old friend, Larry Drew?

In the meantime, both clubs and these two esteemed veteran coaches are simply out to tackle one game at a time, not four. For McMillan, historically, and for Budenholzer, especially right now, the NBA regular season has been the Best of Times.

 

Let’s Go Hawks!

~lw3

[lethalweapon3]

Hearts out and swift recovery to one of the very best Hawks fans around!

~lw3

[lethalweapon3]

YER OUT! (No, not you, Acuna, you're a tough out, I'm talking about Gallo! Trae? Well, the umps say that's still under video review.)

~lw3

[lethalweapon3]

Freak playing? "Shoot" if I know!

~lw3

[bleachkit]

13 minutes ago, lethalweapon3 said:

Hearts out and swift recovery to one of the very best Hawks fans around!

~lw3

I saw this on my Facebook feed. She's one of our best local anchors, hope she gets well soon. 

Edited April 15, 2021 by bleachkit

[Spud2nique]

3 hours ago, lethalweapon3 said:

as we all know by now how the draft story Drew itself up.

 

 

3 hours ago, lethalweapon3 said:

Teague was brought back into the Budfold.

Reunited and it feels ohhhkaaayy remix.

 

3 hours ago, lethalweapon3 said:

things go south this time next year.

I think they might. Don’t think Bucks are getting to the finals and if they don’t he’s out imo.

 

3 hours ago, lethalweapon3 said:

As @Spud2nique noted recently, the Bucks are a bit road-weary, the Hornets game representing the only interruption in a spate of road contests that stretches to nine tonight in Atlanta.

A shout out! Thanks! My rambling finally pays off!  

 

3 hours ago, lethalweapon3 said:

lucky-ducky Luka).

Realgm might hate me..

 

3 hours ago, lethalweapon3 said:

If everyone gets and stays healthy at playoff time, the prospects of the Bucks making it out of the East and to The Finals is arguably as tough as ever under the Bud regime.

Yup.

 

3 hours ago, lethalweapon3 said:

Heck, why not the Bucks’ old friend, Larry Drew?

 

 

Great stuff as usual Lw3! Love it. TNT tonight. Let’s get some respect like Luka does... oh whatevaaaa, a wise man once told me respect is earned not demanded.  

GO HAWKS!

[gHost83]

 

Sorry. Just practicing my side eye for later lol. 

[bleachkit]

Giannis is playing, Bud must think we are a legit threat. 

Edited April 15, 2021 by bleachkit

[JayBirdHawk]

10 minutes ago, bleachkit said:

Giannis is playing, Bud must think we are a legit threat. 

National TV game? I think Trae will play.

[JayBirdHawk]

 

 

 

[JayBirdHawk]

 

 

[TheNorthCydeRises]

This is the first of the most important games of the season.

Win this game, and we put everyone in the East on notice.

[hawkzlova123]

Is trae a good to go?

[kg01]

1 hour ago, lethalweapon3 said:

Freak playing? "Shoot" if I know!

~lw3

Per the 'cast, Giannis was held outta their last game so that he can play tonite.

Giddy-up, boise. 

[lethalweapon3]

Trae must've known something the other day. Welcome to the A, Double-A!

~rwtd

[RedDawg#8]

We waited for confirmation about Giannis before clearing Trae it seems.

[ATLHawks3]

Is Snell good to go? We don't have many Giannis stoppers for us. 

[GameTime]

47 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

 

 

[TheNorthCydeRises]

1 minute ago, lethalweapon3 said:

Trae must've known something the other day. Welcome to the A, Double-A!

~rwtd

 

Easily the most exciting player to watch in that past NCAA Women's tournament.  She'll fit in well with the Dream.  She'll come off the bench, seeing that the Dream are already stacked at guard with Tiffany and Chennedy.

 

[Peoriabird]

Barkley already starting!  Dogging the Hawks as usual