Hunter is becoming Marv

[Final_quest]

7 hours ago, AHF said:

 Hunter is the biggest "swing" player for us on the roster.  A regular season like last year and the season will be a failure.  A healthy year that resembles his playoff run would be a huge success.

I'm hopeful Hunter takes a leap this year, but I don't see him as pivotal to our winning like that.  Last year we were 4-9 with him as our starter after 13 games.  Then he got injured and we won 7 in a row immediately.  Two years ago we turned our season around completely when he was out due to injury.  Statistically he hasn't made a big impact on the court one way or another.  

The two guys who have impacted our winning is healthy Clint and Bogi.  We replaced Hunter just fine with Solo. 

Hunter becoming a consistent net positive player impacts our season in a good way, but if Capela is gimpy and ineffective that will more likely kill our season than Hunter being injured.  

[AHF]

3 hours ago, Final_quest said:

I'm hopeful Hunter takes a leap this year, but I don't see him as pivotal to our winning like that.  Last year we were 4-9 with him as our starter after 13 games.  Then he got injured and we won 7 in a row immediately.  Two years ago we turned our season around completely when he was out due to injury.  Statistically he hasn't made a big impact on the court one way or another.  

The two guys who have impacted our winning is healthy Clint and Bogi.  We replaced Hunter just fine with Solo. 

Hunter becoming a consistent net positive player impacts our season in a good way, but if Capela is gimpy and ineffective that will more likely kill our season than Hunter being injured.  

Clint is a bigger impact player but health is the big potential variable.  If he is healthy, we know very much what we are getting from him.  We don’t know what we have with a healthy Hunter.  Another low impact season from Hunter is a failure but he could be a serious positive impact.  Combine that with his health history and he is our biggest swing player.  Hunter is a wild card.

[Spud2nique]

57 minutes ago, AHF said:

Hunter is a wild card.

Ya he’s our X factor but I think he shouldn’t be, I think he needs to be a GIVEN and Bogi be the X factor. 
 

Hunter needs to step up this year. He needs to take a leap, not so much in stats for me but maturity of plays and possessions. I want him to win one on one battles against other SF’s. Looking for him to make moves.

[Diesel]

10 minutes ago, Spud2nique said:

Ya he’s our X factor but I think he shouldn’t be, I think he needs to be a GIVEN and Bogi be the X factor. 
 

Hunter needs to step up this year. He needs to take a leap, not so much in stats for me but maturity of plays and possessions. I want him to win one on one battles against other SF’s. Looking for him to make moves.

I disagree a bit.   We know that if Bogi is not gimpy...He can give us very very good play on offense.   Hunter is off and on... if he could show up consistently.. and put up just 3 qtrs of what he did against Miami in the playoffs ...consistently.. he will make us a lot better. 

I was drooling over the CLint and JC adv stats from 2 years ago.   We need that back.  If we get that back because they are healthy, we will easily be a 60 win team.

 

 

[Spud2nique]

1 hour ago, Diesel said:

I disagree a bit.   We know that if Bogi is not gimpy...He can give us very very good play on offense.   Hunter is off and on... if he could show up consistently.. and put up just 3 qtrs of what he did against Miami in the playoffs ...consistently.. he will make us a lot better. 

All true but Hunter is a starter. Bogi off the pine  

[Final_quest]

7 hours ago, Diesel said:

I disagree a bit.   We know that if Bogi is not gimpy...He can give us very very good play on offense.   Hunter is off and on... if he could show up consistently.. and put up just 3 qtrs of what he did against Miami in the playoffs ...consistently.. he will make us a lot better. 

I was drooling over the CLint and JC adv stats from 2 years ago.   We need that back.  If we get that back because they are healthy, we will easily be a 60 win team.

 

 

Exactly right.  Hunter may or may not step up, but our team success is/was built on having PnR big men who can play defense.  Now we got another guy who facilitates at a high level.  Capela, Collins, and Okongwu better be ready.  Would love for Jalen, largest hands in his draft, to join the layup line.  

[Spud2nique]

1 hour ago, Final_quest said:

Exactly right. 

[AHF]

11 hours ago, Spud2nique said:

Ya he’s our X factor but I think he shouldn’t be, I think he needs to be a GIVEN and Bogi be the X factor. 
 

Hunter needs to step up this year. He needs to take a leap, not so much in stats for me but maturity of plays and possessions. I want him to win one on one battles against other SF’s. Looking for him to make moves.

Bogi is an X factor as well.  We have seen extended stretches from him with stellar play and extended stretches of so-so production.  Health seems to be a big factor underlying those periods (i.e., when he is gimpy he struggles and he is too often gimpy).

But Hunter has basically 3 years minus one month where he is either injured and unavailable or he is very mediocre.  He has one month and a playoff series of elevated play to go with that.  So to me if Hunter is a given that is a bad thing.  We need to see him take the leap and whether he does or not is the big swing factor for me.

I am confident in the production of our bigs as long as they are available.  Don't expect big deviation from what we've seen from them in the past other than OO having the potential to level up.  Otherwise, I feel like they are very much givens as long as they are healthy.  That isn't to undersell how impactful they are - we saw in the playoffs last year how much we are crippled without them.  They are essential but I think health is the only thing that could potentially undermine their performance.

[MarylandHawk]

On 8/30/2022 at 2:30 PM, AHF said:

Do you mean no evolution among Hawks players?  

JC is one to me who evolved quite nicely with incremental improvements on the defensive side of the ball in addition to his offense.  I don't think we've seen any big transformation among our guards and wings but some improvements around the edges none-the-less.  I'm going to be very interested to see how our player's react to having DM on the roster and if his effort and aggression on D lifts the overall focus and effort of the team.

No. I mean the NBA as a whole. Sure Collins has gotten better with fundamental defense and effort but when I say evolution, I mean developing new ways to defend the style of play in the nba now. Offense has evolved tremendously over the years. Eurostep, step back jumpers and threes, 30 ft threes, creative offensive sets, the fact that bigs can dribble pass and shoot like guards. But defense…nothing has really changed. Same zones, man to man, hand in the face, etc. It would be nice to see some creativity on that side of the ball. There are a few players in the NBA that are bring new things and emphasizing defense but not enough. That boy “Off Night” in Sacremento and dare I say it “Macus Smat” really get creative on how to defend these new nba moves.  Ty Lue was “revolutionary” when he ran the box and 1 against the Warriors in the finals that Cleveland won. 

[Diesel]

4 hours ago, MarylandHawk said:

No. I mean the NBA as a whole. Sure Collins has gotten better with fundamental defense and effort but when I say evolution, I mean developing new ways to defend the style of play in the nba now. Offense has evolved tremendously over the years. Eurostep, step back jumpers and threes, 30 ft threes, creative offensive sets, the fact that bigs can dribble pass and shoot like guards. But defense…nothing has really changed. Same zones, man to man, hand in the face, etc. It would be nice to see some creativity on that side of the ball. There are a few players in the NBA that are bring new things and emphasizing defense but not enough. That boy “Off Night” in Sacremento and dare I say it “Macus Smat” really get creative on how to defend these new nba moves.  Ty Lue was “revolutionary” when he ran the box and 1 against the Warriors in the finals that Cleveland won. 

Defense won't "evolve".    Everything that is to be done on defense has been done.   The only thing that can happen is more skill from less likely players.   Like a 7 footer that can guard guards.   However, they have run the gambit on all of the zones possible.   They have determined all the best man to man techniques.

However, as offenses have evolved, defenses have figured out how to play it.  For instance, 30 ft threes.. led to full court press.   A player like Trae when he doesn't have a pick and roll partner, leads to a diamond and one zone.  PNR offense leads to flooding a side...

All of these things have been vetted and are known.  So defenses will always have counterplay but will not likely evolve.

[AHF]

14 hours ago, MarylandHawk said:

No. I mean the NBA as a whole. Sure Collins has gotten better with fundamental defense and effort but when I say evolution, I mean developing new ways to defend the style of play in the nba now. Offense has evolved tremendously over the years. Eurostep, step back jumpers and threes, 30 ft threes, creative offensive sets, the fact that bigs can dribble pass and shoot like guards. But defense…nothing has really changed. Same zones, man to man, hand in the face, etc. It would be nice to see some creativity on that side of the ball. There are a few players in the NBA that are bring new things and emphasizing defense but not enough. That boy “Off Night” in Sacremento and dare I say it “Macus Smat” really get creative on how to defend these new nba moves.  Ty Lue was “revolutionary” when he ran the box and 1 against the Warriors in the finals that Cleveland won. 

I think use of zone defenses is the most likely category.  Defense has changed dramatically over the last 30 years but that is primarily driven by the rules.  No more hand checking limits a lot of what could be done.  Allowing zone defense meant that the lane got crowded and pushed more and more 3's (and less dependence on post scoring) for offenses.  

Rule changes and what refs allow drive a lot of this too.  That Celtic you mention gets a free pass on contact that a lot of other players would foul out on within 15 minutes.  That allows him to approach how he tackles offensive players very differently from wings who get fouls called when they breath on an opponent.  Tough to be revolutionary on an individual level when the refs make calls almost in "anticipation" of a foul in a lot of circumstances.  So I see scheme as being where the potential for evolution lies and likely new zone approaches, switches, or other tweaks and emphasis that fans like me would struggle to recognize while watching on TV where the camera frequently follows the ball.

[MarylandHawk]

6 hours ago, AHF said:

I think use of zone defenses is the most likely category.  Defense has changed dramatically over the last 30 years but that is primarily driven by the rules.  No more hand checking limits a lot of what could be done.  Allowing zone defense meant that the lane got crowded and pushed more and more 3's (and less dependence on post scoring) for offenses.  

Rule changes and what refs allow drive a lot of this too.  That Celtic you mention gets a free pass on contact that a lot of other players would foul out on within 15 minutes.  That allows him to approach how he tackles offensive players very differently from wings who get fouls called when they breath on an opponent.  Tough to be revolutionary on an individual level when the refs make calls almost in "anticipation" of a foul in a lot of circumstances.  So I see scheme as being where the potential for evolution lies and likely new zone approaches, switches, or other tweaks and emphasis that fans like me would struggle to recognize while watching on TV where the camera frequently follows the ball.

I agree wholeheartedly with this.  Everyone likes offense but not at the expense of punishing people for defensive effort. One of the things I wish they would allow is, if an offensive player initiates contact with a defender it is either a no call or an offensive foul. The fact that offensive players can bang into players defending them in the post over and over again while pushing them back is crazy when the defender can’t push back.  I will call this the Jimmy Butler rule where he drives into the pant, leans into a defender with a slight pump fake and when defender makes contact, he flails and throws up the ball. Again if he is initiating the contact it should be a no call or an offensive foul. 

[JayBirdHawk]

What does this mean for Hunter - Sexton is coming off injury.

 

 

[MarylandHawk]

1 hour ago, JayBirdHawk said:

What does this mean for Hunter - Sexton is coming off injury.

 

 

I am glad Sexton got his money and an opportunity to be the man again. Would have been messed up if that injury put him in an Isaiah Thomas situation.  Dre should be in that ball park. I still wouldn't extend until he has actually done what we expect him to do for a full year. 

[JayBirdHawk]

6 minutes ago, MarylandHawk said:

I am glad Sexton got his money and an opportunity to be the man again. Would have been messed up if that injury put him in an Isaiah Thomas situation.  Dre should be in that ball park. I still wouldn't extend until he has actually done what we expect him to do for a full year. 

This is a little confusing.

Over the last 3 years Sexton played 136 games, Hunter played 139 games, but you are happy that Sexton got his money having not played for the last 71 games, but don't want to extent Hunter who has played the last 3 months of the season?

(I have said previously I'm ok with an extension if it favorable for the Hawks otherwise he has a year to prove he can stay healthy)

[MarylandHawk]

2 hours ago, JayBirdHawk said:

This is a little confusing.

Over the last 3 years Sexton played 136 games, Hunter played 139 games, but you are happy that Sexton got his money having not played for the last 71 games, but don't want to extent Hunter who has played the last 3 months of the season?

(I have said previously I'm ok with an extension if it favorable for the Hawks otherwise he has a year to prove he can stay healthy)

I thought ClevLand was not going to extend him at all and not start him because of Garlands emergence. That would have really hurt his production especially if his injury lingered. 
 

With Dre I think right now he is worth between 72 and 80 mil but in our situation, I don't know if the current version of him is good enough to put us over the top contention wise.  I am on record saying that Dre has to reach his potential in order for us to compete for a chip. I also believe that players always play better in a contract year. So that is why I would wait. If he does reach his potential and we win a chip, give him whatever the market demands. 

[MarylandHawk]

22 hours ago, Diesel said:

Defense won't "evolve".    Everything that is to be done on defense has been done.   The only thing that can happen is more skill from less likely players.   Like a 7 footer that can guard guards.   However, they have run the gambit on all of the zones possible.   They have determined all the best man to man techniques.

However, as offenses have evolved, defenses have figured out how to play it.  For instance, 30 ft threes.. led to full court press.   A player like Trae when he doesn't have a pick and roll partner, leads to a diamond and one zone.  PNR offense leads to flooding a side...

All of these things have been vetted and are known.  So defenses will always have counterplay but will not likely evolve.

I see where you are coming from. I still think there is room for creativity on defense. You can see glimmers of ingenuity over time with things like GMs drafting guys like Hunter who has good agility and extremely long arms so he can disrupt passing lanes since it is almost impossible to touch offensive players. But the defensive technique and attitude has to be there too. Other evidence that there is a little bit of evolution on defense is a guy like OO17. Giannis tears the league up with his euro step move. Everybody tries to defend it by putting a hand up and sliding back as he approaches. He just uses that hand to maneuver around and make the shot. What OO17 does is hold his ground and keeps his hands down in the waist area and when Giannis tries to bring the ball to the other side of his body down low, Okungwu will just disrupt that and prevent him from bringing the ball up. He is also strong enough to where Giannis can’t nudge him out if the way with his body.   It is a small sample of defensive advancements that could be replicated and taught in a broader way. Just my thoughts though.  

[AHF]

14 hours ago, JayBirdHawk said:

This is a little confusing.

Over the last 3 years Sexton played 136 games, Hunter played 139 games, but you are happy that Sexton got his money having not played for the last 71 games, but don't want to extent Hunter who has played the last 3 months of the season?

(I have said previously I'm ok with an extension if it favorable for the Hawks otherwise he has a year to prove he can stay healthy)

Games are equal but Sexton has the stronger track record in the games they actually played as far as free agency goes (where scoring tends to net you the biggest contract).  That said, I think Hunter has the higher ceiling and has every opportunity to leap frog Sexton this year. 

Note that I'm granting that Sexton is another guy who benefits in some of these stats from volume scoring but he leads Hunter in a lot of overall performance metrics (PER, WS, BPM, VORP, etc.)

The one metric that likes Hunter better than Sexton by a real margin that I've seen is RAPTOR.  

I'm glad we didn't get Sexton and sign him.  Murray is sooooooo much better as an add, imo.

[JayBirdHawk]

 

 

 

[AtLaS]

On 9/1/2022 at 10:00 PM, MarylandHawk said:

I thought ClevLand was not going to extend him at all and not start him because of Garlands emergence. That would have really hurt his production especially if his injury lingered. 
 

With Dre I think right now he is worth between 72 and 80 mil but in our situation, I don't know if the current version of him is good enough to put us over the top contention wise.  I am on record saying that Dre has to reach his potential in order for us to compete for a chip. I also believe that players always play better in a contract year. So that is why I would wait. If he does reach his potential and we win a chip, give him whatever the market demands. 

 

I want to sign him this offseason.  I don't see his price dropping next year even if he doesn't improve.  He is 6'8", 24 years old, can shoot the 3, play defense and doesn't demand the ball.  A 3/D guy like that can fit on any team.  However if he has a big year his price is going to jump a LOT.  

The contract year thing is only relevant as it pertains to the offseason prior to the contract year.  With an upcoming contract year, many players immediately hit the gym after the season and work harder in the offseason.  This makes them better during the season b/c they come to camp in shape and ready.  It's not about getting the contract and all of a sudden playing worse.  It's that once they get the contract and are guaranteed the next 4-5 years, it's easy to go into an offseason and take more vacations, have fun and not work as hard.  Since we are already through most of the offseason, it wouldn't hurt us to lock Hunter up now IMO.  He has already been working hard.  Now if we would've locked him up 2 months ago that could have been different as he could've started slacking.  But training camp starts in a couple weeks so I'm not worried about that.  

The key point for me is that i don't see his price decreasing regardless of what he does this season.  But it has a decent chance of increasing.  So to me there is no upside in waiting.