Build Proposals Around Trae = Exercise in Futility

[benhillboy]

I see my fellow posters grasping at straws as to what type of player “fits” with Trae.  Y’all actually trying to build around a max guy who’s the worst defender in the league?  Ask Schlenk how that’s working out: 

124-161 with Trae starting, .435 winning percentage 

11-14 with Trae in street clothes, .441 winning percentage 

These are the active small guards with “similar” career ratings to Trae (114 to 117)

Kyrie Irving 115 109

Mike Conley 113 108

Darren Collision 112 110

DJ Augustine 112 111

CJ McCollum 111 113

Patty Mills 111 110

Sweet Lou 111 111

Isaiah freaking Thomas 114 112

Only McCollum is underwater, still a point less than Trae.

It doesn’t matter how much offense he “creates” individually.  The impact it has on the team is below average.  I been studying ratings for a minute, you’d be hard pressed to find a team rated 2nd in offense a game below .500 this late in the season.

Look at these frames of Clint’s lost ball turnover:

Look at the poor spacing Trae creates driving toward Gallo with 3 defenders’ eyes on him.
 

Look at the bad dribble pick up for an awful aborted shot attempt with no offensive rebounding in sight.  Allowed a single defender to turn him away from the hoop 30 something feet out.

Look how he puts Capela in a jam.  At lease he tried to give Jones a misdirection when he got off the ball, clearly he’s a high level defender.
 

Clint loses the ball, y’all can debate over whether it was a foul or whatever.  But witness Trae flail his arms at the referee before Jones even realizes the ball is loose.  What does Trae do?  He backs up even further away from the ball.  
 

Of course Jones pounces upon it the exact instant he detects it, knowing he’ll have no contest.  Trae still complaining after the play is over, anything that prevents him from having to be involved in the huddle he loves. This same shit happened in the second straight loss against Miami with PJ Tucker late in the fourth.

You simply can’t build around players who have it all handed to them yet sacrifice nothing.  I told y’all months before the piece with Jackie McMullan came out that Trae’s mates could take him or leave him.  You think that’s changed after they demolish the West’s second seed without him yet get handled by the 10th the very next game he returns?  Nope.

His style of play can work in the very short term, obviously.  He can fill it up as quick as anyone in the league.  But in the long term we’ve seen his style absolutely neuter the players alongside him.  Y’all saw how many driving lanes were created for the wings against Memphis when the ball moved.  How many points did Delon save with his effort on defense?  A few less than Trae’s mere presence usually surrenders.  No improvement in shot creation or playmaking from our Bigs because their PG only uses them for PNR props.

When Trae starts to get paid there’s gonna be a dark cloud over this franchise.  We’re gonna get national coverage for all the wrong reasons smh.  

Edited March 21, 2022 by benhillboy

[NBASupes]

NC, diesel, and Marco ain't gonna like this. They gonna say you a hater and that you really mad. They not gonna use any logic and emotionally talk about how the wings aren't getting it done when it's next to impossible to be expected to do your job on that end and his job and he dominates the rock and no one really likes playing with him on offense outside of Clint which is different because he hates playing with him on defense. 

Trae is worth 30 wins

Less than Smoove in his prime by 5.

Less than prime Sap by 5. 

Same as Clint who's an high end role player. 

Same as Iso Joe who really wouldn't have made an all star team in the west in his playing days and is pretty good but nothing special. Not a legit all star, star, much less superstar. 

Trae is not the worst max contract guy. There are worse. But his impact is insanely low for any #1 option. We have had lower but we had guys who were worth a lot more wins in Horford or Deke who was really our best player. Right now, Trae is our best player since JC came back to earth from his early season success and is back at 30 wins like Clint and Trae.

Its hard to win games your floor is so low regardless of your ceiling raising which Trae has in abundance. 

Not saying we bet on the wrong horse, just saying, we got a lot of work to do.  Trae being 50 wins on offense on average is amazing on average but -20 on defense is disgusting and when he's playing poorly on offense and the defense is a -20, that's like nuking our chances to win games. 

Edited March 21, 2022 by NBASupes

[macdaddy]

I mean there's a lot to poke holes in this thread.   Firstly, it's from a guy on record as hating Trae from day one.  So not sure there was a lot of objectivity in the analysis.  

Breakdown of a play where Clint can't hold onto the ball to expose Trae's bad defense?   How did you pick one when that happens 20 times a game.

And my favorite piece of 'evidence', Trae's win-loss record when more than half his games have been played on a tanking team.  

Neglected to mention that he took this team on his back further than Smoove, Sap, Joe, Horford, Teague, Nique, Deke.   The same teammates that are fumbling and scared to shoot this season were all smiles and buckets last year.    We got guys who maybe are mad that Trae's defense is bad but get to the other end of the court and are so paralyzed that they might have to drive the ball they just keep passing it back to him.   

There are players out there that will win with Trae.  We'll see how the analytics shape out then.  Like end of last season suddenly Trae will be 'much improved'.  

[Peoriabird]

4 hours ago, benhillboy said:

I see my fellow posters grasping at straws as to what type of player “fits” with Trae.  Y’all actually trying to build around a max guy who’s the worst defender in the league?  Ask Schlenk how that’s working out: 

124-161 with Trae starting, .435 winning percentage 

11-14 with Trae in street clothes, .441 winning percentage 

These are the active small guards with “similar” career ratings to Trae (114 to 117)

Kyrie Irving 115 109

Mike Conley 113 108

Darren Collision 112 110

DJ Augustine 112 111

CJ McCollum 111 113

Patty Mills 111 110

Sweet Lou 111 111

Isaiah freaking Thomas 114 112

Only McCollum is underwater, still a point less than Trae.

It doesn’t matter how much offense he “creates” individually.  The impact it has on the team is below average.  I been studying ratings for a minute, you’d be hard pressed to find a team rated 2nd in offense a game below .500 this late in the season.

Look at these frames of Clint’s lost ball turnover:

Look at the poor spacing Trae creates driving toward Gallo with 3 defenders’ eyes on him.
 

Look at the bad dribble pick up for an awful aborted shot attempt with no offensive rebounding in sight.  Allowed a single defender to turn him away from the hoop 30 something feet out.

Look how he puts Capela in a jam.  At lease he tried to give Jones a misdirection when he got off the ball, clearly he’s a high level defender.
 

Clint loses the ball, y’all can debate over whether it was a foul or whatever.  But witness Trae flail his arms at the referee before Jones even realizes the ball is loose.  What does Trae do?  He backs up even further away from the ball.  
 

Of course Jones pounces upon it the exact instant he detects it, knowing he’ll have no contest.  Trae still complaining after the play is over, anything that prevents him from having to be involved in the huddle he loves. This same shit happened in the second straight loss against Miami with PJ Tucker late in the fourth.

You simply can’t build around players who have it all handed to them yet sacrifice nothing.  I told y’all months before the piece with Jackie McMullan came out that Trae’s mates could take him or leave him.  You think that’s changed after they demolish the West’s second seed without him yet get handled by the 10th the very next game he returns?  Nope.

His style of play can work in the very short term, obviously.  He can fill it up as quick as anyone in the league.  But in the long term we’ve seen his style absolutely neuter the players alongside him.  Y’all saw how many driving lanes were created for the wings against Memphis when the ball moved.  How many points did Delon save with his effort on defense?  A few less than Trae’s mere presence usually surrenders.  No improvement in shot creation or playmaking from our Bigs because their PG only uses them for PNR props.

When Trae starts to get paid there’s gonna be a dark cloud over this franchise.  We’re gonna get national coverage for all the wrong reasons smh.  

I agree with everything you said...I guess I was hoping that Trae would improve on his weaknesses over time.

[Atlantaholic]

And taking career net ratings when Trae played over half of his games in two teams that ranked close to last in net ratings, yes, how objective. For starters net ratings tell you nothing since they they don't isolate the player from the lineups he plays in. Look at Net Raptor and box +-, where does Trae compare to the same guys now? 

[Diesel]

I want to echo Mac here... about the first part.. 

Quote

124-161 with Trae starting, .435 winning percentage 

11-14 with Trae in street clothes, .441 winning percentage 

That quoted part... is meaningless because we tanked for Trae's first two years.   A day one starter, Trae played in every game his rookie year and our record was 29-53.  He missed 7 game the next year and our record was 20-47..

 

2019-2020 = 2-5 without Trae. 

2020-2021 = 5-4 without Trae. 

2021-2022 = 3-3 without Trae:  Losses to Orlando, NY, and Toronto

I don't see those 14 games that you came up with...   but I do see 9-12 (.429) without Trae... Over his first 4 years....

But again.. We were not trying to win anything in our first two years with Trae.    So let's Adjust here...  Over the last 2 years....

We are 68-58 with Trae Playing,   .540 winning percentage..

We are 8-9 with Trae in street clothes, .471 winning percentage....

[Mikey]

This is an insane thread. We were literally two wins away from a finals appearance. Trae young is not the problem by any means. He needs to give effort and improve his defense but that is an issue for quite literally all but 3-4 players on the team.

 

The personnel around him and the coach they hired are terrible right now. 

[kg01]

Heh, ol' @benhillboy during the playoffs last year ...

 

Eta: And, to be fair, no one is saying Trae is perfect or that he can't improve on things.

But if you're "solution" starts with trading Trae (and at least have the guts to say that's where you're at, btw), then I can't get with you on that.  That's using a sledgehammer to kill a fly on your window.

Edited March 21, 2022 by kg01

[Peoriabird]

On 3/21/2022 at 9:36 AM, Mikey said:

 Trae young is not the problem by any means.

This is quite an extreme view. I think we at least have to be fair with our assessments.  Trae's live turnovers are a problem and so are his hot and cold streaks.  His defensive efforts are not consistent to say the least which leads to the team's defensive struggles.  The defensive ratings are what they are with him on and off the court.

[macdaddy]

1 minute ago, Peoriabird said:

This is quite an extreme view. I think we at least have to be fair with our assessments.  Trae's live turnovers are a problem and so are his hot and cold streaks.  His defensive effort are not consistent to say the least which leads to team defensive struggles.  The defensive ratting are what they are with him on and off the court.

I'm fine with criticizing Trae.   He's played poorly at times this season but when pretty much the rest of the team has underperformed it's hard to place ALL the blame on our best player who's putting up MVP numbers. 

[Atlantaholic]

Just to highlight how stupid "net rating" is as a metric to evaluate a player Capela has an offenseive rating of 131 on the team highest by a massive margin. Gorgui Dieng has a net rating of 123-111 vs Bogi of 113 - 116.

Deandre Bembry who played a similar amount of minutes to KD has a better net rating in Brooklyn than KD. What does all this tell us? Nothing. 

[kg01]

And furthermore .. if ya''ll are gonna do this ('this' being the 'get rid of Trae' stuff), have the guts to also put together what you're "plan" is.

And it better, for dayum sure, not start with tanking.

[Diesel]

1 minute ago, Peoriabird said:

This is quite an extreme view. I think we at least have to be fair with our assessments.  Trae's live turnovers are a problem and so are his hot and cold streaks.  His defensive effort are not consistent to say the least which leads to team defensive struggles.  The defensive ratting are what they are with him on and off the court.

Yesterday... I do blame Trae's turnovers for the loss.. even though we came back and evened the score in the 4th..

BUT The true SAVIOR yesterday was Gallo's Scoring...

and 

The true PROBLEM yesterday was our Rebounding...

 

[kg01]

Just now, Atlantaholic said:

Just to highlight how stupid "net rating" is as a metric to evaluate a player Capela has an offenseive rating of 131 on the team highest by a massive margin. Gorgui Dieng has a net rating of 123-111 vs Bogi of 113 - 116.

Deandre Bembry who played a similar amount of minutes to KD has a better net rating in Brooklyn than KD. What does all this tell us? Nothing. 

People only use numbers that support their opinions and, if you rightfully point out the fallacy in them, their next move is to say "oh you just don't understand it on the level that I do".

[ShooterSays]

Again...y'all acting like we didn't just make the ECF and come within a fluke sprained ankle of making the finals...in the very first year of actually trying to win games and not purposefully tank!

This has been a weird season. That COVID stretch really hurt us. I don't think Nate is having his best coaching season either. There's no excuse for not giving JJ minutes when your 2 best PF's are injured. It's inexcusable. His rotations have improved, but were terrible for the first 60% of the season. Remember when his 2nd unit never had starters overlapping?

I'm convinced without Trae, we're a bottom 3 team in the league. Bogi and Gallo are the only 2 players outside of Trae who can get their own shot. Capella can't make a basket around the rim unless Trae practically puts it in the cylinder for him. Did we just beat the 2nd best team in the West the other night without Trae? Yes, but everyone was hitting shots. 50% from the field and over 46% from three that game. Not sustainable. Aren't the Grizzlies 12-2 this year without Ja? So do they have a better shot at being successful going forward without him? Of course not, don't be ridiculous.

[Diesel]

The expectation is that there will always be a thread that has Trae is the problem as it's theme whenever we lose.   That's because there is an undercurrent of people who are still mad that we took Trae and the pick over Luka.  This Topic is the Jordan vs. Lebron argument of Hawks Basketball.

There... I like to call a thing a thing.... Gentlemen... we can't change the past... and actually, I still believe Trae is the better player for us.

There's your fighting point. 

 

 

[bleachkit]

He's not an easy star to build around, but we have to try. 

[Atlantaholic]

And not even getting into the claims of our poor wings suck because of Trae Young: (Hunter TS% coming off the bench in six games this year is sub 40, Huerter in 12 games at 43%), or that Josh Smith gave us 30 wins (?). Trae ranks top ten in the NBA in WAR and VORP. 

[Peoriabird]

2 minutes ago, macdaddy said:

I'm fine with criticizing Trae.   He's played poorly at times this season but when pretty much the rest of the team has underperformed it's hard to place ALL the blame on our best player who's putting up MVP numbers. 

What I think @benhillboy is trying to say is that the Hawks can't win big long term if Trae continues to dominate the ball on offense while not putting forth an effort on defense.  he isn't good enough yet to be the focal point on an offense on a championship team while playing almost no defense.  Could he become more efficient later in his career? Of course! But if this is as good as it gets, the Hawks will have a ceiling regardless of the personnel around him.

[Peoriabird]

7 minutes ago, Diesel said:

Yesterday... I do blame Trae's turnovers for the loss.. even though we came back and evened the score in the 4th..

BUT The true SAVIOR yesterday was Gallo's Scoring...

and 

The true PROBLEM yesterday was our Rebounding...

 

Yesterday day we played the 10th seed in the west at home.  We should not struggle with those kinds of teams if we are considered contenders.