The cobbled together, stuff we held on to during the playoffs mega super rumor and team direction thread.

[AHF]

3 minutes ago, shakes said:

I disagree with that analogy.   Everyone knows or should know that sticking your finger in an outlet could cause you to get hurt.  No one knew that touching someone's microphone or towel would cause Covid. And as it turns out,  it doesn't.  Just a massive overreaction at the time based on everyone's collective ignorance to COVID.

And if anyone is still mad at Rudy about that then the problem lies in the mirror, not with Rudy.

That is fair in terms of sticking your finger in an outlet being a more known and proven risk.  But you are still off base here.  The common thought at the time that Gobert did that was that surfaces were a means of transmission.  That is why businesses all over were paying for the wiping down of equipment and surfaces.  More to the point, it is precisely the commonly understood fear that touching things could transmit the disease which was why the "joke" involved him touching a bunch of things and not him humming the star spangled banner - one was an act that would provoke people who were afraid they could be put at risk and the other wouldn't.  He was just fortunate that surface transmission turned out to be a non-factor.  What he did was very similar to people who intentionally coughed on other people when they believed that it wasn't a real risk.  Both act of out ignorance.  His act turned out to be relatively harmless and theirs put people at risk which is a matter of luck on their parts because they certainly didn't have any data to back their views up.  

But the more basketball related point was that his teammates were not happy about his prank.  Mitchell viewed it as putting his teammates and their families at risk for a joke and I can't blame him.  Gobert was oblivious to the fact that him pulling this "joke" in the locker-room  and press room would piss people (including his teammates) off.  That shows at least an inability to read the room on his part.

This week, Gobert was again not self-aware enough to recognize that by praising Booker he would be perceived as criticizing Mitchell.  

It goes to at least a real lack of social awareness on Gobert's part to do these sorts of things.  

[thecampster]

Just now, REHawksFan said:

@thecampster I have no idea if the following ask is asking too much or if it's an easy calculation, but I'm going to ask anyway understanding that if it's too much trouble you won't be inclined to acquiesce this request. 

Can you tell us how much the Suns owner is actually looking at in LT bill if he signs Ayton to his $30.5 Max vs if he trades that max to Atl for Clint and whomever is needed to make the deal work?  Just wondering what the potential savings from them will be by doing the deal.  I'm assuming they would be in the LT either way. 

Is that an impossible ask?  

Its an impossible task because the rest of the roster isn't set. But I have 3 minutes to get close.

The LT is going to be around $149 million. Lets use that number for right now.

If they sign Ayton to $30.5 to start (up to $159.8) and they don't trade anyone and they fill out their roster (5 slots) with vet minimums (avg 2.3 mil) we get a salary around 171.3 million. IMHO this is a conservative estimate. That gives us a Luxury Tax around $75.9 million.  See below.

https://public.tableau.com/views/NBASalaryTaxCalculator/Dashboard1?%3Aembed=y&%3AshowVizHome=no&%3Adisplay_count=y&%3Adisplay_static_image=y&%3AbootstrapWhenNotified=true

[REHawksFan]

3 minutes ago, thecampster said:

Its an impossible task because the rest of the roster isn't set. But I have 3 minutes to get close.

The LT is going to be around $149 million. Lets use that number for right now.

If they sign Ayton to $30.5 to start (up to $159.8) and they don't trade anyone and they fill out their roster (5 slots) with vet minimums (avg 2.3 mil) we get a salary around 171.3 million. IMHO this is a conservative estimate. That gives us a Luxury Tax around $75.9 million.  See below.

https://public.tableau.com/views/NBASalaryTaxCalculator/Dashboard1?%3Aembed=y&%3AshowVizHome=no&%3Adisplay_count=y&%3Adisplay_static_image=y&%3AbootstrapWhenNotified=true

Thanks!  So if I'm reading the chart correctly (probably not) and they could swap Ayton's $30.5M for Clint's $20M (if ATL off loads salary to another team for instance), then that could potentially save the Suns owner almost $50M between tax savings and salary.  That's a big deal if I've calculated it correctly.  

[thecampster]

What I want you to do is look at the chart and see how as you go farther and farther above the tax line, the amount of tax paid accelerates.  If they were only $10 million over the line, their tax would be reasonable at $25.25 million. Its that next $15 million that costs them the other $50 mil in tax.

So how does a Capela trade fix it?  Lets take Capela, Dre, #16.  The #16 pick will make about $2.9 million.  Capela about $19 million (incentives), Dre a bit less than $10 million.  Their 3 salaries add up to about $31.9 million.  But they need 2 less minimum salaries saving $4.6 million.  That $4.6 million savings is against the 5th line of the graph saving $21.85 million in tax and $4.6 million in salary. A savings of $25 million and arguably a better team with Dre.

[thecampster]

5 minutes ago, REHawksFan said:

Thanks!  So if I'm reading the chart correctly (probably not) and they could swap Ayton's $30.5M for Clint's $20M (if ATL off loads salary to another team for instance), then that could potentially save the Suns owner almost $50M between tax savings and salary.  That's a big deal if I've calculated it correctly.  

You have. Which is why its on the table and why you just don't "pay the man" every time your favorite player wants the max. Last years John Collins salary by giving him $23.5 million instead of $29 isn't a $5.5 million savings. If we go deep into the LT as well....that $5.5 million could potentially become a $30 million savings.

 

 

@AHF  we really need a way to sticky that calculator. It just saved me 10 minutes of calculations.

Edited May 3, 2022 by thecampster

[Diesel]

20 minutes ago, thecampster said:

Well that's the rub isn't it.  In order to move him you need 1 of 3 scenarios.  Scenario 1 is you move him for 3 salaries that add up to the matching salary to enable them to spread out the salary hit among players.  In order to do that, you'll need a team like Atlanta with 3 salaries around $10 mil each (average).  Clint, OO, JJ fits that bill (a deal I would not do).  Scenario 2, you move him for multiple salaries in a none salary matching move to get much lower. In order to do that you need a team under the cap (like OKC) with cheap assets you might want (like OKC).  Scenario 3, you move him in an equal value deal for a better fit at similar value....this one is really hard to find but I can think of a few very unlikely scenarios.

Typically scenarios 1 and 2 don't exist which is the reason you don't find up and comers being moved. But this season we have both. The opportunity and motivation exists. Its really a matter of compensation.

Are you just totally ignoring the idea I pushed.

Ayton for Cap/Hunter/picks (2026 & 2028 1st rounders protected)  followed closely by Gallo for Shemet and Crowder. 

They can always send somebody else to OKC for more savings...

But this deal nets them a young upgrade at Sf.  A Center ... and picks in the future.   With a 15 Million dollar savings. 

 

[thecampster]

20 minutes ago, Diesel said:

Are you just totally ignoring the idea I pushed.

Ayton for Cap/Hunter/picks (2026 & 2028 1st rounders protected)  followed closely by Gallo for Shemet and Crowder. 

They can always send somebody else to OKC for more savings...

But this deal nets them a young upgrade at Sf.  A Center ... and picks in the future.   With a 15 Million dollar savings. 

 

I'm not ignoring it, I just know #16 is on the table right now and I'm kind of in wait and see mode waiting on what gets done with Gallo.

 

Also, they may decide that getting rid of their core is a better idea than letting Ayton walk. IMHO its too early to game plan.  My OP was a compilation of everything we've heard and the farther from that conversation we get, the less in the know I become.  I'll tell you that @NBASupes has been unusually quiet on these matters and has stated his well is currently dry.  This is a really good sign that the market is taking little direction and its probably too early to speculate on what is possible. I'd prefer to avoid discussion of Phoenix hypotheticals altogether until their playoff run ends.

[shakes]

41 minutes ago, AHF said:

That is fair in terms of sticking your finger in an outlet being a more known and proven risk.  But you are still off base here.  The common thought at the time that Gobert did that was that surfaces were a means of transmission.  That is why businesses all over were paying for the wiping down of equipment and surfaces.  More to the point, it is precisely the commonly understood fear that touching things could transmit the disease which was why the "joke" involved him touching a bunch of things and not him humming the star spangled banner - one was an act that would provoke people who were afraid they could be put at risk and the other wouldn't.  He was just fortunate that surface transmission turned out to be a non-factor.  What he did was very similar to people who intentionally coughed on other people when they believed that it wasn't a real risk.  Both act of out ignorance.  His act turned out to be relatively harmless and theirs put people at risk which is a matter of luck on their parts because they certainly didn't have any data to back their views up.  

But the more basketball related point was that his teammates were not happy about his prank.  Mitchell viewed it as putting his teammates and their families at risk for a joke and I can't blame him.  Gobert was oblivious to the fact that him pulling this "joke" in the locker-room  and press room would piss people (including his teammates) off.  That shows at least an inability to read the room on his part.

This week, Gobert was again not self-aware enough to recognize that by praising Booker he would be perceived as criticizing Mitchell.  

It goes to at least a real lack of social awareness on Gobert's part to do these sorts of things.  

sorry I'm just mad and projecting because during the height of stupidity we had a COVID positive person in our office and then I had to immediately shut the office down and pay a cleaning service $500 to come in and basically just spray some crap everywhere. #neveragain #neverforget

 

[Diesel]

6 minutes ago, thecampster said:

I'm not ignoring it, I just know #16 is on the table right now and I'm kind of in wait and see mode waiting on what gets done with Gallo.

 

Also, they may decide that getting rid of their core is a better idea than letting Ayton walk. IMHO its too early to game plan.  My OP was a compilation of everything we've heard and the farther from that conversation we get, the less in the know I become.  I'll tell you that @NBASupes has been unusually quiet on these matters and has stated his well is currently dry.  This is a really good sign that the market is taking little direction and its probably too early to speculate on what is possible. I'd prefer to avoid discussion of Phoenix hypotheticals altogether until their playoff run ends.

My suspicion when it comes to an Ayton deal is that Phoenix won't take back a 2022 pick.  That kind of spoils draft day trades but they can't afford the salary (according to your numbers)... However, 2026/2028 when CP3 is well off the books would be a good time for them to reload.  It's what Gabriel and Presti would have done. 

 

[Diesel]

3 minutes ago, shakes said:

sorry I'm just mad and projecting because during the height of stupidity we had a COVID positive person in our office and then I had to immediately shut the office down and pay a cleaning service $500 to come in and basically just spray some crap everywhere. #neveragain #neverforget

 

Cleaning companies are making more money now than any other time in history!

 

[georgia]

How would Collins fit next to Ayton?

 

sorry if discussed already 

[shakes]

Just now, Diesel said:

Cleaning companies are making more money now than any other time in history!

 

buddy of mine owns a cleaning company.  He said it was ridiculous how much his business changed with COVID.  He said before COVID companies would just hire the cheapest cleaners, but now they actually are looking to pay extra just to get the so called best.  He was turning business away at one point.

 

That said, the gains could all be short term when you factor in how much people are just working from home now.  Offices are half empty and pretty much every company/law firm I know is figuring out ways to drastically reduce their office foot print.   Corporate cleaning crews might run out of places to clean.

[thecampster]

2 minutes ago, georgia said:

How would Collins fit next to Ayton?

 

sorry if discussed already 

The benefit to almost every center discussed is their ability to operate outside the paint. Ayton adds the benefit of a 10-12 footer that Clint does not have. In that one area alone he helps JC.  JC does not have a good post up game. Its average at best.  He requires some space to work.  Clint has to be within 5 feet of the basket to be effective with the ball in his hand. Any pass to Clint outside 5 feet is pointless unless he's already moving toward the basket. Ayton provides Collins a bit of space to avoid the duck down, big help while in the post.  Ayton > Clint offensively, minor (very minor) help to Collins offensively.  

[hylndr11]

1 hour ago, Diesel said:

Are you just totally ignoring the idea I pushed.

Ayton for Cap/Hunter/picks (2026 & 2028 1st rounders protected)  followed closely by Gallo for Shemet and Crowder. 

They can always send somebody else to OKC for more savings...

But this deal nets them a young upgrade at Sf.  A Center ... and picks in the future.   With a 15 Million dollar savings. 

 

But we get the hit with Hunter on Def, how are we expecting to fill that already not even great void since hes our best defender

[aali34]

12 minutes ago, hylndr11 said:

But we get the hit with Hunter on Def, how are we expecting to fill that already not even great void since hes our best defender

Would they even need Hunter? They have Mikal Bridges, Crowder, and Cam Johnson.

[marco102]

1 hour ago, thecampster said:

What I want you to do is look at the chart and see how as you go farther and farther above the tax line, the amount of tax paid accelerates.  If they were only $10 million over the line, their tax would be reasonable at $25.25 million. Its that next $15 million that costs them the other $50 mil in tax.

So how does a Capela trade fix it?  Lets take Capela, Dre, #16.  The #16 pick will make about $2.9 million.  Capela about $19 million (incentives), Dre a bit less than $10 million.  Their 3 salaries add up to about $31.9 million.  But they need 2 less minimum salaries saving $4.6 million.  That $4.6 million savings is against the 5th line of the graph saving $21.85 million in tax and $4.6 million in salary. A savings of $25 million and arguably a better team with Dre.

I would NOT trade Hunter in a trade for Ayton.   The Hawks need to keep as much defense on the team a they can around Trae. 

[warcore]

21 minutes ago, aali34 said:

Would they even need Hunter? They have Mikal Bridges, Crowder, and Cam Johnson.

Good point. That would be like Dre getting Cam'd.

[NBASupes]

59 minutes ago, marco102 said:

I would NOT trade Hunter in a trade for Ayton.   The Hawks need to keep as much defense on the team a they can around Trae. 

Hunter and Okongwu really can't be moved. Too important to the future.

[Diesel]

1 hour ago, hylndr11 said:

But we get the hit with Hunter on Def, how are we expecting to fill that already not even great void since hes our best defender

 

For now.. with Crowder.   He's tough and more than Serviceable.  He also becomes our enforcer.   To the delight of a lot here, we also get to bring JJ up and see if he can play some SF. 

Finally, we haven't yet begun to think about what happens with Bogi.  Maybe there are more trades to come...

 

[RandomFan]

8 hours ago, Spud2nique said:

That’s your cue @RandomFan. Get in here.