2023-24 Insider Information Thread

[theheroatl]

Anyone want to trade for JB now? 

Edited July 26, 2023 by theheroatl

[Diesel]

To me, Brown hasn't been that good.   He's a really good player, but he's not that good.   That's KD in his prime like pay.   Brown is not close. 

 

[Peoriabird]

6 minutes ago, RedDawg#8 said:

How many Jokic’s are there in the NBA and how do we convince one to come to Atlanta for less than his worth?

I’ll wait

There are plenty of other bargain players in the league.  Guys like Jimmy Butler comes to mind

[akay]

13 minutes ago, theheroatl said:

Anyone want to trade for JB now? 

[Hawkish]

42 minutes ago, theheroatl said:

Anyone want to trade for JB now? 

Ha!  Definitely not…this is a contract that eventually ends up on the Knicks or Mavericks.

[georgia]

Hawks need to stand Pat now in my opinion

mills and matthews are the vet leadership

start bey and Hunter at the forward spots

play into the season and go from there

i think bufkin has a high iq and ability.    Trae sucked during summer league and salim stoudimire was amazing 

[Plainview1981]

47 minutes ago, georgia said:

Hawks need to stand Pat now in my opinion

mills and matthews are the vet leadership

start bey and Hunter at the forward spots

play into the season and go from there

i think bufkin has a high iq and ability.    Trae sucked during summer league and salim stoudimire was amazing 

The Hawks will get destroyed on the boards starting both Bey and Hunter.

[gurpilo]

hace 4 horas, Plainview1981 dijo:

The Hawks will get destroyed on the boards starting both Bey and Hunter.

That is true we need to upgrade our frontcourt with size and a stretch PF or C to pair with OO and Cap. If Capela is traded we need a starter at PF or C.

[AHF]

9 hours ago, Peoriabird said:

There are plenty of other bargain players in the league.  Guys like Jimmy Butler comes to mind

I do agree with this.  Bargains tend to be in the following scenarios:

* Max contracts

* Rookie contracts

* RFAs where the team squeezes the player 

* Vets who the market undervalues

* Vets who ignore the market to sign where they want

Most max players are great values historically (ie in an uncapped market they would have been paid more than their actual salary).  Rookies are mixed - those that are good and productive are great value but many rookies flop and even some that don’t aren’t remarkably productive.  Free agents in general tend to be bad values as the market drives prices up much more often than the market overlooks a good value but RFAs are an exception because fewer teams will bid on them for fear the host team will match and this creates a value opportunity IF the team is willing to hold the line (we did not do this under TS).  Last category is really players who are willing to take a cut (relative to what they would get elsewhere) to play for a particular team (common example is guys ring chasing who sign with a loaded team).

[AHF]

9 hours ago, theheroatl said:

Anyone want to trade for JB now? 

Clearly not.  If you traded for him before, he couldn’t get the super max.  Now he actually makes it even worse with a trade kicker (unless he is willing to waive it).  No clue why Boston gave him the trade kicker.

[JeffS17]

1 hour ago, AHF said:

No clue why Boston gave him the trade kicker.

Boston gave him the trade kicker because it's not actually 15% in practice.  AFAIK you cannot apply a trade bonus to take you salary beyond 35% of the cap.  So given the estimated cap increases, the trade kicker effectively amounts to ~$5M if he's traded.  The only exception is if the cap jumps significantly before the end of his contract, and I'm not even sure the exact mechanics of that if he's traded in year 2 for instance and in year 4 the cap jumps.

[JeffS17]

10 minutes ago, JeffS17 said:

Boston gave him the trade kicker because it's not actually 15% in practice.  AFAIK you cannot apply a trade bonus to take you salary beyond 35% of the cap.  So given the estimated cap increases, the trade kicker effectively amounts to ~$5M if he's traded.  The only exception is if the cap jumps significantly before the end of his contract, and I'm not even sure the exact mechanics of that if he's traded in year 2 for instance and in year 4 the cap jumps.

Although looking at the breakdown of his contract, I'm not even sure how it works out to be almost 37% of the cap in the first year(?)

[JayBirdHawk]

13 minutes ago, JeffS17 said:

Although looking at the breakdown of his contract, I'm not even sure how it works out to be almost 37% of the cap in the first year(?)

Projected salary cap for next season is $149.6 million x 35% max = $52.3 million in year 1

[AHF]

23 minutes ago, JeffS17 said:

Boston gave him the trade kicker because it's not actually 15% in practice.  AFAIK you cannot apply a trade bonus to take you salary beyond 35% of the cap.  So given the estimated cap increases, the trade kicker effectively amounts to ~$5M if he's traded.  The only exception is if the cap jumps significantly before the end of his contract, and I'm not even sure the exact mechanics of that if he's traded in year 2 for instance and in year 4 the cap jumps.

That just says why the kicker may not be as bad as it would otherwise be.  It doesn't explain at all why Boston let him have it.  If I am Boston and am in a situation where I want to move him it is surely not because he has been playing like an MVP and I am just tired of winning rings.  It will almost certainly be a situation where either I've concluded it is a toxic contract that I want to unload (in which case the kicker just makes it that much harder to move) or where the team isn't performing and I need to swap Brown for better talent (in which case the kicker just lowers the return you should expect to get for him).  Just no reason to give it.

[Hawkish]

50 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

Projected salary cap for next season is $149.6 million x 35% max = $52.3 million in year 1

I’m embarrassed to be an American viewer of professional sports.

[macdaddy]

I honestly can't wrap my brain around Jaylen Brown making $70 million in 5 years.   The highest salary right now is $50 million and that's reserved for the absolute superstars of the league (for the most part).   I guarantee most non-nba sports fans don't even know who Brown is.   We're basically talking about a doubling of a lot of salaries when you take into account the monetary increase + Brown's relative status in the league.   Maybe it will be a huge outlier.  

[JayBirdHawk]

34 minutes ago, macdaddy said:

I honestly can't wrap my brain around Jaylen Brown making $70 million in 5 years.   The highest salary right now is $50 million and that's reserved for the absolute superstars of the league (for the most part).   I guarantee most non-nba sports fans don't even know who Brown is.   We're basically talking about a doubling of a lot of salaries when you take into account the monetary increase + Brown's relative status in the league.   Maybe it will be a huge outlier.  

Here are some of the upcoming 35% max players. Some of these aren't Supermax eligible, but for those players that have 10+ years of NBA experience they also can get the 35% max.

[JeffS17]

1 hour ago, JayBirdHawk said:

Projected salary cap for next season is $149.6 million x 35% max = $52.3 million in year 1

Got it.  The right column is what confused me -- incongruent estimates across their own data.

[macdaddy]

10 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

Here are some of the upcoming 35% max players. Some of these aren't Supermax eligible, but for those players that have 10+ years of NBA experience they also can get the 35% max.

To me the only players on those lists that should be getting supermax are Giannis, Luka, Jokic, Steph and Tatum.  The rest would just be foolish in my opinion so let me just add:

[TheNorthCydeRises]

15 hours ago, Peoriabird said:

But you can't pay Star players like they are superstars.  That is a losing or treadmill strategy at best

 

I agree with this.  Everybody can't get max money. 

But I would rather overpay for a star ( non-superstar ) player, than overpay for a bunch of mid-level players. 

It's much easier to flip a star player contract than it is for a mid-level contract.