Let's Talk Draft Picks

[parfait]

I think you're right that John presents a unique skill set. The question becomes what skill set is worth paying a max or near-max contract that will tie up our salary cap. I personally think that he'll have to continue to become more of a weapon as a perimeter shooter to justify that type of financial commitment. I'm just not so sure how much a good-rebounding, defensively-average rim runner is worth paying for if that's all you get.

[AHF]

30 minutes ago, parfait said:

I think you're right that John presents a unique skill set. The question becomes what skill set is worth paying a max or near-max contract that will tie up our salary cap. I personally think that he'll have to continue to become more of a weapon as a perimeter shooter to justify that type of financial commitment. I'm just not so sure how much a good-rebounding, defensively-average rim runner is worth paying for if that's all you get.

He is a lot more than a rim runner, though.  It is why his name pops up on some of those lists of “here are the 5 players who have ever put up these numbers” lists.  They are always driven to some degree by specificity (Ie people with more impressive lines don’t make the cut in a certain area and so it makes it look more impressive) but he puts up really high scoring volume numbers for a guy who doesn’t get direct plays called for him.  Pretty high PPG and such a great TS%.  I don’t view him as just another guy at all.

[parfait]

I should clarify. I don't consider him just a guy. I forgot to also include his intangibles and leadership skills, which are off the charts. I just think that he's a notch below max-level.

[JTB]

3 hours ago, nathan2331 said:

Is it really a big deal that he doesn't create his own offense? We've got other players who can get him the ball, and he's efficient all around the court. Even if he never improves offensively what he's doing for us now is already unique and valuable. It's not like John can't dribble and drive like other bigs, so it gives other players on the roster more touches to do something else with the ball.

What I think is more important is that we get Huerter, Reddish and Hunter to take better advantage of John's (and now Capela's) movement moving forward. The threat they present around the basket creates easier scoring for everyone else. Trae's the only one right now who fully uses it to his advantage.

This!!!

[kg01]

12 hours ago, nathan2331 said:

Is it really a big deal that he doesn't create his own offense? We've got other players who can get him the ball, and he's efficient all around the court. Even if he never improves offensively what he's doing for us now is already unique and valuable. It's not like John can't dribble and drive like other bigs, so it gives other players on the roster more touches to do something else with the ball.

What I think is more important is that we get Huerter, Reddish and Hunter to take better advantage of John's (and now Capela's) movement moving forward. The threat they present around the basket creates easier scoring for everyone else. Trae's the only one right now who fully uses it to his advantage.

One thing I've learned since becoming a podcast snob listener is all these podcast snob hosts throw out a bunch of buzzy words.  "Self-creation" is the biggest one nowadays.  "Jumbo forward" is another.  "Jumbo forward with self-creation" is like the ultimate for them.  That's how they describe Tatum who they all swoon over.

To me, all it really means is that he can't dribble so well.  But that doesn't sound fancy ,so I'll stick with "self-create".  People in basketball take themselves so freaking serious nowadays.

Guys who can (wait for it) self-create from the forward position (swoon) are considered highly valuable and worthy of max dollars by basketball nerds.  Collins lacking that ability is the #1 reason folks don't think he should be highly paid.

However, as you mention, he's still a very valuable piece who's still improving.  That he can't self-create can be inconsequential based on the makeup of our team.  I'm afraid if we (fans and team) fail to recognize his value and importance to our team, at a reasonable sum of course, we'll not know what we're missing 'til he's gone.

Shiiiii, folks looked at Trashcal Siakim as a self-creator while he was feasting in the regular season and in the playoffs next to Kawhi.  Look at his deer in the headlights lookin' a** in the playoffs.  I'm not so sure I'd take him over Collins although his skillset should make him the clear choice.

I hate basketball nerds.

[NBASupes]

These guys aren't Basketball heads and that's why nerds and the heads don't always get along. I tend to be both. I am a former Hooper who also is into heavy analytics and the modernization of the game. Best of both worlds. 

Impact has always been #1 to me and what impacts the game the most is where I tend to lean to for pros. For prospects, I tend to cast a far more broad net as the most impactful guys on the previous might not translate to the modern NBA. 

 

[NBASupes]

11 hours ago, AHF said:

He is a lot more than a rim runner, though.  It is why his name pops up on some of those lists of “here are the 5 players who have ever put up these numbers” lists.  They are always driven to some degree by specificity (Ie people with more impressive lines don’t make the cut in a certain area and so it makes it look more impressive) but he puts up really high scoring volume numbers for a guy who doesn’t get direct plays called for him.  Pretty high PPG and such a great TS%.  I don’t view him as just another guy at all.

I do. He's just an high end jag to me. Defensively, he's below average which wouldn't be a death nail if he was an elite offensive player. His biggest issue is his lack of creation for others, if he is what he is today but can create for others like Horford or Webber, he would be a clear max cat for me. He would be a PPP phenomenon. That's why I prefer to have Issac over JC regardless of situation. 

Elite offense beats elite defense but elite defense at the 4 beats very good offense and excellent offense at the 4 is just as good as elite defense at the 4. If JC was this Chris Webber type or JC with Al Horford passing, he would be a clear max cat. Even if he was JC with self creation like AD where he can create out of nothing, he would be a max cat too.

JC is a very good offensive talent who has good offensive impact but if he had excellent impact or elite, I would never sell my stock on JC

Edited September 8, 2020 by NBASupes

[AHF]

2 minutes ago, NBASupes said:

I do. He's just an high end jag to me. Defensively, he's below average which wouldn't be a death nail if he was an elite offensive player. His biggest issue is his lack of creation for others, he he is what he is today but can create for others like Horford or Webber, he would be a clear max cat for me. He would be a PPP phenomenon. That's why I prefer to have Issac over JC regardless of situation. 

Elite offense beats elite defense but elite defense at the 4 beats very good offense and excellent offense at the 4 is just as good as elite defense at the 4. If JC was this Chris Webber type or JC with Al Horford passing, he would be a clear max cat. Even if he was JC with self creation like AD where he can create out of nothing, he would be a max cat too.

Yeah, you and I ultimately differ on his bottomline.  I think we have a similar view about many of his strengths and weaknesses, more about what that package means.  I remain optimistic he can continue to improve as well.  Won't ever be as good a passer as Webber or Horford but incremental improvement in playmaking and defense is very much in play.  Fundamentally, I don't think he is wired to be a plus guy in either of these areas but he can improve materially.  If he could stay at his career 37% 3pt% or even better match his performance from last year that would also be big.

[NBASupes]

Just now, AHF said:

Yeah, you and I ultimately differ on his bottomline.  I think we have a similar view about many of his strengths and weaknesses, more about what that package means.  I remain optimistic he can continue to improve as well.  Won't ever be as good a passer as Webber or Horford but incremental improvement in playmaking and defense is very much in play.  Fundamentally, I don't think he is wired to be a plus guy in either of these areas but he can improve materially.  If he could stay at his career 37% 3pt% or even better match his performance from last year that would also be big.

I think there is a cap and he is very close to it. He will make improvements but I doubt they will be incremental. I would love to sign him to the offer Sabonis got. That's honestly a good deal, even a performance incentive one like Hield got but even that's an overpay. 

[AHF]

7 minutes ago, NBASupes said:

I think there is a cap and he is very close to it. He will make improvements but I doubt they will be incremental. I would love to sign him to the offer Sabonis got. That's honestly a good deal, even a performance incentive one like Hield got but even that's an overpay. 

Agree that a Sabonis deal would be good.  But I will say I'd rather overpay a little than see him walk given where we are in our development cycle right now.

One clarification, I'm not sure what you mean when you say that you doubt improvements would be incremental.  I think incremental is a great word for what they might look like in that they would not be transformational (i.e., not going from where he is now to a Joakim Noah passing or defense or any big plus) but would be improved by some degree over time.

[parfait]

2 hours ago, AHF said:

Yeah, you and I ultimately differ on his bottomline.  I think we have a similar view about many of his strengths and weaknesses, more about what that package means.  I remain optimistic he can continue to improve as well.  Won't ever be as good a passer as Webber or Horford but incremental improvement in playmaking and defense is very much in play.  Fundamentally, I don't think he is wired to be a plus guy in either of these areas but he can improve materially.  If he could stay at his career 37% 3pt% or even better match his performance from last year that would also be big.

Yeah, I think further development of his outside shooting is his main key to reaching new heights, in terms of impact.

[AHF]

20 minutes ago, parfait said:

Yeah, I think further development of his outside shooting is his main key to reaching new heights, in terms of impact.

He shoots over 42% for his career on corner 3's so that seems pretty locked in as a positive threat.  Where he took the huge step last year was on non-corner 3's.  

His first two seasons, JC took over 40% of his 3's from the corner.  (His rookie season was over 70% from the corner and his sophmore year was ~31% from the corner).  On the ~60% of non-corner 3's his first two seasons, he shot 30.7% his rookie season and 28.4% his second year.  

Last season, he shot only 12.9% of his 3pt shots from the corner and on that 87.1% of non-corner 3's he hit an impressive 40.6%.  That is huge.

[parfait]

I think what makes it tough with John is differentiating what John deserves from what is in the best interests of the Hawks organization. John is just an incredibly great dude. I would wish him the max, because I would wish him the best. But is tying up the cap with a Collins max contract in the Hawks' best interests?

[parfait]

2 minutes ago, AHF said:

He shoots over 42% for his career on corner 3's so that seems pretty locked in as a positive threat.  Where he took the huge step last year was on non-corner 3's.  

His first two seasons, JC took over 40% of his 3's from the corner.  (His rookie season was over 70% from the corner and his sophmore year was ~31% from the corner).  On the ~60% of non-corner 3's his first two seasons, he shot 30.7% his rookie season and 28.4% his second year.  

Last season, he shot only 12.9% of his 3pt shots from the corner and on that 87.1% of non-corner 3's he hit an impressive 40.6%.  That is huge.

If he can generate a significant volume of 3's starting this season, especially above the break like you mentioned, then watch out!

[Dean Walker]

11 minutes ago, parfait said:

I think what makes it tough with John is differentiating what John deserves from what is in the best interests of the Hawks organization. John is just an incredibly great dude. I would wish him the max, because I would wish him the best. But is tying up the cap with a Collins max contract in the Hawks' best interests?

Bingo, exactly my sentiments.

9 minutes ago, parfait said:

If he can generate a significant volume of 3's starting this season, especially above the break like you mentioned, then watch out!

Yeah that would be huge.

[JayBirdHawk]

14 minutes ago, parfait said:

I think what makes it tough with John is differentiating what John deserves from what is in the best interests of the Hawks organization. John is just an incredibly great dude. I would wish him the max, because I would wish him the best. But is tying up the cap with a Collins max contract in the Hawks' best interests?

I don't think he gets a max and I wouldn't call it "tying up our cap" in this stage of our rebuild and our current cap situation. 

Tying up cap is paying a player like a 30 year old Gallo on a 3yr/$75 deal for this team.

[parfait]

7 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

I don't think he gets a max and I wouldn't call it "tying up our cap" in this stage of our rebuild and our current cap situation. 

Tying up cap is paying a player like a 30 year old Gallo on a 3yr/$75 deal for this team.

A fair point. I didn't mean any disrespect to John. You're right, tying up cap was more like Bazemore's contract. I think the term "overpay" would be more accurate. But like I said, if John becomes a volume 3 point shooter at his current percentage or greater then it may be a moot point.

[JayBirdHawk]

2 minutes ago, parfait said:

A fair point. I didn't mean any disrespect to John. You're right, tying up cap was more like Bazemore's contract. I think the term "overpay" would be more accurate. But like I said, if John becomes a volume 3 point shooter at his current percentage or greater then it may be a moot point.

I don't think being a volume 3pt shooter is the magic formula. That is not his strength and classifying him as that reduces his effectiveness. He's a PnR player, he needs to improve his PnP to shoot the short jumper when the lob isn't there or teams crowd his pat the the basket. He also needs to make enough plays out of the PnR when the easy basket for him isn't there (I've seen improvements in that area already). What he needs to be, is effective enough with his 3pt shot to make defenders guard him with it. I certainly don't want him standing out at the 3pt line to just accommodate Capela.

[marco102]

45 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

I don't think being a volume 3pt shooter is the magic formula. That is not his strength and classifying him as that reduces his effectiveness. He's a PnR player, he needs to improve his PnP to shoot the short jumper when the lob isn't there or teams crowd his pat the the basket. He also needs to make enough plays out of the PnR when the easy basket for him isn't there (I've seen improvements in that area already). What he needs to be, is effective enough with his 3pt shot to make defenders guard him with it. I certainly don't want him standing out at the 3pt line to just accommodate Capela.

However, if he becomes effective with these things and shooting more threes it'll allow him and Capela to coexist much better on the offensive end.

[bird_dirt]

Back to the draft talk....

Given how there has been some talk of the Hawks potentially trading for a second pick in the mid/late 1st round, what non-lottery players are you looking for?

Personally, I'd like to see them grab SF Jordan Nwora, for more size, depth, and good 3 ball.

Or maybe PG RJ Hampton (especially bc i prefer they don't get a PG at 6). He's also got good size for his position and will be a good backup.