The Mega Super Rumor Thread (Part 2)

[Sothron]

2 hours ago, Peoriabird said:

I keep hearing this and asking myself, what deal would Justin Holiday and Moe Harkless be setting up?  Why would any team say to Atlanta, If you can manage to get those guys on your team then we will trade with you?

Both have expiring deals after this season plus the first we got from the Kings are potential trade pieces.

[akay]

1 hour ago, sturt said:

No, it really can't. It can only be won with substance.

 

That's any season, any team.

 

Think just one layer deep. Just one.

Why?

The expectations pre-Dec 1 were that this team would be dominant.

And pre-Dec 1 we were essentially playing .500 ball.

Then came December 1. For the next six count-em weeks and 22 count-em games, every friggin night our head coach would put together a starting line-up that was a mish-mash... a gumbo Hawks line-up... starting.

How do you then end up going from .500 ball to 6-16 over those 22 games, and have the balls to say this team wasn't suffering from a depletion of talent and an NBA HQ that should have suspended many, many games but didn't?

That would be taken as "excuse making," of course.

It wouldn't have actually been "excuse making" but it would have been taken that way due to lazy logic.

 

It was reason.

Reason that employs scientific method... human kind's best capacity to analyze reasonably and gain solid conclusions.

Graduate school level... not high school level... reason.

 

 

I haven't polled anyone. Maybe you're right. I'm aware that you and Random are dismissive. That's two.

But.

Your premise of saying that would seem to be "what is most rational is also popular, and what is popular is also most rational."

Nope. I don't have to tell you, an intelligent human being, that history is saturated with examples of that being a false premise.

 

We agree... except... people keep bringing up things that allude to the Real Hawks as-if they weren't actually performing at a .653 rate, which is what they commonly use to justify their want for big moves.

The line of reason is stout... the numbers are the numbers.

When you conflate Gumbo Hawks' record with Real Hawks record that's not being intellectually honest. It's just not. It's pushing a preferred conclusion when you should know better since you've (supposedly) heard the logic a dozen times. I'm skeptical that you've done anymore than read the words... because if you'd let yourself argue with yourself about it, you would have actually heard it and acknowledge now the validity of it.

 

I'm obviously going to proudly die on this hill.

I'm right about it. Not because it comes from me, but because it comes from stone cold logic.

Hi @sturt,

I think it would be helpful to talk about what exactly happened with the team basketball wise when we had that.652 record.

Currently you talk about expectations and logic your way through why the % is absolute in it's demonstration of our true Hawks abilities, but don't bring up what players like Kevin and JC did during that time period to make them unexpendable. 

Was Kevin playing aggressively and showing off how good he can potentially be with consistency? Was John playing tremoundous defense resulting in us having a higher win %?

I think just pulling up the record is somewhat reductive in that it overlooks the basketball aspect, and just jumps to the conclusion.

If our Hawks were doing something special (or even what was expected), what was it? What are we missing now that Kev is gone and potentially JC? 

These are the questions that get me curious when you pull the record, because while it is impressive, just putting the record out and using logical reasoning without detailing what went on basketballwise makes it hard to accept the conclusion.

 

[enrique]

1 hour ago, sturt said:

We agree... except... people keep bringing up things that allude to the Real Hawks as-if they weren't actually performing at a .653 rate, which is what they commonly use to justify their want for big moves.

The line of reason is stout... the numbers are the numbers.

I agree with your take on the "Real Hawks" vs "Gumbo Hawks" (great image)...I think a more fair assessment would be to use the actual season (2021-22) and not conflate the hybrid coaching of Pierce/McM. I think McM got more out of the team than Pierce, but in his season implementing his own offense and defense we really did not take a step forward. 

The "Real Hawks" record for 2021-22 that you have mentioned is around .617 (5th best in the East and 9th best in the NBA). Now I haven't compared this with "Real Mavericks" or "Real...", but it is a really solid display of the team's potential. My bigger concern was the overwhelming lack of development from all players not named Trae last season. I have tried to see any patterns or find a reason but at this point, no success. But I think we all get our "gut reaction" to that horrific patch of games that put us in purgatory by the All-Star game. I am still happy we made the playoffs via the play-in. Our awful showing (sans healthy Capella and Collins) revealed huge deficiencies among both our game plan as well as our execution. I believe the addition of Murray will actually make us geometrically harder to contain on offense. The coaching, however, concerns me as does our player development.

[Final_quest]

1 hour ago, sturt said:

No, it really can't. It can only be won with substance.

 

That's any season, any team.

 

Think just one layer deep. Just one.

Why?

The expectations pre-Dec 1 were that this team would be dominant.

And pre-Dec 1 we were essentially playing .500 ball.

Then came December 1. For the next six count-em weeks and 22 count-em games, every friggin night our head coach would put together a starting line-up that was a mish-mash... a gumbo Hawks line-up... starting.

How do you then end up going from .500 ball to 6-16 over those 22 games, and have the balls to say this team wasn't suffering from a depletion of talent and an NBA HQ that should have suspended many, many games but didn't?

That would be taken as "excuse making," of course.

It wouldn't have actually been "excuse making" but it would have been taken that way due to lazy logic.

 

It was reason.

Reason that employs scientific method... human kind's best capacity to analyze reasonably and gain solid conclusions.

Graduate school level... not high school level... reason.

 

 

I haven't polled anyone. Maybe you're right. I'm aware that you and Random are dismissive. That's two.

But.

Your premise of saying that would seem to be "what is most rational is also popular, and what is popular is also most rational."

Nope. I don't have to tell you, an intelligent human being, that history is saturated with examples of that being a false premise.

 

We agree... except... people keep bringing up things that allude to the Real Hawks as-if they weren't actually performing at a .653 rate, which is what they commonly use to justify their want for big moves.

The line of reason is stout... the numbers are the numbers.

When you conflate Gumbo Hawks' record with Real Hawks record that's not being intellectually honest. It's just not. It's pushing a preferred conclusion when you should know better since you've (supposedly) heard the logic a dozen times. I'm skeptical that you've done anymore than read the words... because if you'd let yourself argue with yourself about it, you would have actually heard it and acknowledge now the validity of it.

 

I'm obviously going to proudly die on this hill.

I'm right about it. Not because it comes from me, but because it comes from stone cold logic.

If you don’t think an argument can be won by volume of words, you’ve never been married.  

[Peoriabird]

34 minutes ago, Sothron said:

Both have expiring deals after this season plus the first we got from the Kings are potential trade pieces.

Other teams have way more draft pick and expiring contract than us.  So who is this mistery trade partner?

[enrique]

38 minutes ago, sturt said:

 

 

Damn.

And I believe that might be the first time that the term "concise" has ever been used in describing something I wrote... hehe.

 

And my hidden cams have detected the following reaction toward you from a couple of friends here...

Haha!!! I don't know your reputation. But when you are making several points and trying to connect the dots in a logical flow, you could have rambled on for several more paragraphs. So I think your argument was concise...it was just thorough too. And thoroughness doesn't mean brevity. But thoroughness can be concise. You were concise:)

[NekiEcko]

3 minutes ago, Peoriabird said:

Other teams have way more draft pick and expiring contract than us.  So who is this mistery trade partner?

You know that he cannot say that do you remember what @Sothron said about some of the Hawks FO and players that look at this site and they are looking for those who is leaking information to them.  I think once this KD/Ayton situation is over, I believe another trade will be coming.  Until then, let's be patient.

Edited July 2, 2022 by NekiEcko

[Peoriabird]

4 minutes ago, NekiEcko said:

You know that he cannot say that do you remember what @Sothron said about some of the Hawks FO and players that look at this site

I seriously doubt that we can piss off John more than we already have by mentioning a potential trade partner.

[sturt]

24 minutes ago, akay said:

Currently you talk about expectations and logic your way through why the % is absolute in it's demonstration of our true Hawks abilities, but don't bring up what players like Kevin and JC did during that time period to make them unexpendable. 

Was Kevin playing aggressively and showing off how good he can potentially be with consistency? Was John playing tremoundous defense resulting in us having a higher win %?

I think just pulling up the record is somewhat reductive in that it overlooks the basketball aspect, and just jumps to the conclusion.

If our Hawks were doing something special (or even what was expected), what was it? What are we missing now that Kev is gone and potentially JC? 

These are the questions that get me curious when you pull the record, because while it is impressive, just putting the record out and using logical reasoning without detailing what went on basketballwise makes it hard to accept the conclusion.

I appreciate the tone of the inquiry... it's a vast improvement on what I've ordinarily gotten.

I'm confused by the premise, though, that would suggest that I'm making more of a case for any one specific player by raising the .653 overall Real Hawks record in the Nate McMillan era.

I'm not, for instance, suggesting that if we somehow were able to finagle a trade of Embiid for Collins or Booker for Huerter, that the .653 is evidence that such a proposal should be DOA.

In the most recent context, I'm really primarily alleging that the lurch toward big moves is motivated by a misnomer... one that Ressler might be the prime mover in having advanced... ie, that this team underperformed in 2021-22.

(Let's get this out of the way... it definitely did not overperform, and that can most readily be attributed to what Clint and Trae said in interviews about maturity and complacency.)

When this team was this team... not a cobbled together version that had severe weakest links on the court for those 22 games... this team did about what most of us thought they would do... good enough to be a competitor for the #1 seed, but at least the #2 or #3.

 

Then, one can argue about what are the components of the team that were more or were less important to that outcome. To your (presumed) point, those are valid arguments worth having as long as they're had in the context of understanding this team met expectations overall.

 

How's that... are we somewhere closer to agreement? Or not?

 

 

 

[NekiEcko]

@Peoriabird

But we might get @Sothron in trouble.

Besides, trade rumors goes on all of the time.  One of the people I knew worked for the Supersonics until they moved to OKC and he used to tell me, you will see about 20 to 30 different trade proposals a day and what not.  So he is not worrying about it then we should not worry about either.  John is a professional basketball player who makes 100x more money than we do.  He will be fine.

Edited July 2, 2022 by NekiEcko

[RandomFan]

HAHA. Get.Him.Trae!

 

Edited July 2, 2022 by RandomFan

[Peoriabird]

16 minutes ago, NekiEcko said:

@Peoriabird

But we might get @Sothron in trouble.

Besides, trade rumors goes on all of the time.  One of the people I knew worked for the Supersonics until they moved to OKC and he used to tell me, you will see about 20 to 30 different trade proposals a day and what not.  So he is not worrying about it then we should not worry about either.  John is a professional basketball player who makes 100x more than we do.  He will be fine.

Then why have the insiders started a trade rumor thread only to predict trades that never happen and miss trades that do?

[akay]

2 minutes ago, sturt said:

Then, one can argue about what are the components of the team that were more or were less important to that outcome

Yup, this is mainly what I'm interested in as a number without context is simply a number.

If we assume that the "Real Hawks" record of .652 wasn't a fluke and aligns with our expectations of the team basketballwise, how were the Hawks running during this period to achieve this success?

If we remove Kevin/JC/Anyone we may potentially trade from that roster, what impact needs to be replaced to replicate the success, and how attainable is it to find these replacements?

I know Kevin and JC and the rest of our core was special, and I will truly love them for the rest of their careers, but what were/are they bringing to the table that we'll have to replace? 

If you have any insight into this @sturt, I would love to hear a bit deeper analysis of how our Hawks operated during our best stretch and what changes need to be made now to go even further with Kev(probably JC) gone.

Getting Murray means we have to get more creative with our offense, so I think the Hawks team next year is going to look very different in playstyle than previous years, which is a separate discussion, though fun to think about.

[NekiEcko]

6 minutes ago, Peoriabird said:

Then why have the insiders start a trade rumor thread only to predict trades that never happen and miss trades that do?

Because they have already discussed it but no majority but dont worry about it too much.  We are just talking about stuff that 99.98% that it will not happen so don't worry about it and if it does, then dont look into the thread okay?

[sturt]

47 minutes ago, enrique said:

in his season implementing his own offense and defense we really did not take a step forward. 

The "Real Hawks" record for 2021-22 that you have mentioned is around .617 (5th best in the East and 9th best in the NBA). Now I haven't compared this with "Real Mavericks" or "Real...", but it is a really solid display of the team's potential. My bigger concern was the overwhelming lack of development from all players not named Trae last season. I have tried to see any patterns or find a reason but at this point, no success.

To this, I would bring up a premise that I feel is fairly well-grounded...

Players have to get used to playing with each other before they can begin to put it together and for the results to show up in terms of wins and in terms of individual development as well. When a team is out of sync, it's like a family out of sync... everyone suffers and becomes something less than what they could/would/should have been.

So... since I accept that it's normally 20-25 games before a team gets in sync, and I've maintained that for many years now...

That Great Recession hit, and it was the perfect storm situation... we were just beginning to be in a place where there was enough continuity to graduate to 3rd and 4th gear.

Players were having to play beside guys they didn't know, who didn't know the offense very well if at all, who didn't know the defensive rotations very well if at all... and since it's a game of 5 on 5 rather than 11 on 11... it's so much more difficult to compensate for those weakest links... and everyone's development and outcomes take a hit.

To be fair, then, that same disruption is an only-rational explanation for why McM's implementation of some of his own preferences couldn't have any significant effect.

It would have been better for the Hawks if the 22 games had been at the very beginning of the season... hitting in Games 21-42 was stifling to progress, and while the team did muster two notable win streaks, and notably held its own with a winning record over the league's Final 8, they never really found a rhythm. And then, the final blow really was the John Collins injury. If not for that, there remained some reason for hope that the team could turn a corner and make a big push and carry momentum into the 2022 playoffs as they had in 2021.

We stood no chance against one of the best defensive teams in the league, with them well-rested, and with us hobbled and tired from two win-or-go-home games in the 4 days prior to our first MIA game.

 

 

 

 

[theheroatl]

12 minutes ago, Peoriabird said:

Then why have the insiders start a trade rumor thread only to predict trades that never happen and miss trades that do?

What insiders…

[sturt]

37 minutes ago, enrique said:

Haha!!! I don't know your reputation. But when you are making several points and trying to connect the dots in a logical flow, you could have rambled on for several more paragraphs. So I think your argument was concise...it was just thorough too. And thoroughness doesn't mean brevity. But thoroughness can be concise. You were concise:)

[Peoriabird]

4 minutes ago, NekiEcko said:

Because they have already discussed it but no majority but dont worry about it too much.  We are just talking about stuff that 99.98% that it will not happen so don't worry about it and if it does, then dont look into the thread okay?

Just weird to me that John's name has be front and center and involved in umteen trade scenarios only to see Huerter get traded and there was no mention of this possibility while john is still here.

3 minutes ago, theheroatl said:

What insiders…

The Guys that started the thread

[theheroatl]

The best info I’ve seen so far this off-season that I would consider insider connected:

Other than that I’ve seen so much smoke except for Woj announcing our trades. The Huerter trade didn’t have any leaks before.

[ABH]

1 hour ago, sturt said:

Um.

JJ???

Isn't it a given that JJ's going to be granted the chance to take Gallo's minutes? Think that's even a McM or Schlenk quote (???).

Nope