We are probably a play in team again….

[JTB]

I didn’t realize until tonight that the Nets and 76ers are both 8-10 games over .500….Both have also been on decent win streaks lately.

Meanwhile our Hawks are hovering around.500 again. I don’t think we can place blame on injury with this one. We simply just aren’t a top 5 seed like many of us thought.

 

Philly and Brooklyn are rolling and dare I say it!…that kid Ben Simmons has been playing exceptionally well as the games go on. He’s helping turn Brooklyn into a two way monster. Kyrie has been balling out since returning from suspension too and KD is KD.

 

Cavs are also better than us and play more cohesively.

 

Shockingly the Knicks, Hawks, Pacers all appear to be in the same tier and honestly the Pacers may be the best of the bunch.

 

im not trying to be negative….I’ll leave that to the many other posters around here but reality (at least for me) is setting in. Going to be a lot pissed off fans when they see us sitting at 7th seed in east around all star break . I really do hope I’m wrong.

Edited December 27, 2022 by JTB

[Diesel]

1 hour ago, JTB said:

I don’t think we can place blame on injury with this one. We simply just aren’t a top 5 seed like many of us thought.

Why not?

We have spent most of this season missing key players.   Even without Key Players:

We beat Milwaukee  twice. 

We beat Philly.

We beat Denver.

We beat the Knicks

We beat the Pelicans. 

We beat the Raptors

We beat the Kings. 

We beat the Bulls. 

 

Without key players playing, we have a track record of beating some of the best teams in the league... so what happens when we get everybody playing and develop chemistry?

 

[TheNorthCydeRises]

1 hour ago, JTB said:

I didn’t realize until tonight that the Nets and 76ers are both 8-10 games over .500….Both have also been on decent win streaks lately.

Meanwhile our Hawks are hovering around.500 again. I don’t think we can place blame on injury with this one. We simply just aren’t a top 5 seed like many of us thought.

 

Philly and Brooklyn are rolling and dare I say it!…that kid Ben Simmons has been playing exceptionally well as the games go on. He’s helping turn Brooklyn into a two way monster. Kyrie has been balling out since returning from suspension too and KD is KD.

 

Cavs are also better than us and play more cohesively.

 

Shockingly the Knicks, Hawks, Pacers all appear to be in the same tier and honestly the Pacers may be the best of the bunch.

 

im not trying to be negative….I’ll leave that to the many other posters around here but reality (at least for me) is setting in. Going to be a lot pissed off fans when they see us sitting at 7th seed in east around all star break . I really do hope I’m wrong.

 

Way too early to call that.  Our next 15 games are no joke though.

 

The Hawks have to really start taking care of business at home.  No more margin for error in these close home games.  On the road, we need to start being close to a .500 on the road.

March will be the time the Hawks make their run, as they normally do.

 

 

At some point though, the Hawks need to start stringing together at least a few 5 game win streaks, in order to build themselves up.  Knicks are starting to come back to Earth, so at the very least, the 6 seed will be a battle all year.

We're only 4 games out of 4th place.  So it's way too early to say we're going to be a play-in team. 

[RedDawg#8]

There are 2 key things we are struggling to do consistently which are the hallmark of really good teams:

Starting games fast, and finishing games down the stretch.

We can point to a number of reasons for our struggles but overall if we cannot improve these two things we simply wont be a serious threat in the East.

[JTB]

1 hour ago, Diesel said:

Why not?

We have spent most of this season missing key players.   Even without Key Players:

We beat Milwaukee  twice. 

We beat Philly.

We beat Denver.

We beat the Knicks

We beat the Pelicans. 

We beat the Raptors

We beat the Kings. 

We beat the Bulls. 

 

Without key players playing, we have a track record of beating some of the best teams in the league... so what happens when we get everybody playing and develop chemistry?

 

We can’t use injuries as a reason when other teams are hurt too and missing key players like us.

Bucks are missing Middleton.

The Raptors win damn near all their key players were out.

we are split with the Knicks 

 

 

as the year goes on and all these teams start to get healthy hopefully we are winning .

[JTB]

1 hour ago, RedDawg#8 said:

There are 2 key things we are struggling to do consistently which are the hallmark of really good teams:

Starting games fast, and finishing games down the stretch.

We can point to a number of reasons for our struggles but overall if we cannot improve these two things we simply wont be a serious threat in the East.

Hopefully we fix those two things soon. 

[bleachkit]

Top 3 has probably sailed. But there's no reason we couldn't at least get to 5 or 6.

[Final_quest]

Until this team has a win streak of more than 3 games these feelings are valid.  I'm waiting for the team to show me they are giving up or they are a top 10 team.  Right now we are in between and that defaults us to a Play In level team. 

The Detroit game we finally had a convincing win and it could be a sign that we have a better formula in the works.  They played an 8 man rotation, and cut out Jalen and the Holidays.  Maybe it's a job saving move for Nate, but buckling down and putting your best 8 guys out there means we have starter quality minutes at every position from beginning to end. 

Trae has been more efficient and he usually gets better after the first 30 games.  If MVP level Trae shows up in addition to a tightened rotation, we could really do some damage.  Bringing both Bogi and AJ off the bench for the first time all season is like having a splash party in waiting instead of earlier this year when the bench had no fire power whatsoever.  It's potentially a different team, significantly different.  

 

[Diesel]

6 hours ago, JTB said:

We can’t use injuries as a reason when other teams are hurt too and missing key players like us.

Bucks are missing Middleton.

The Raptors win damn near all their key players were out.

we are split with the Knicks 

 

 

as the year goes on and all these teams start to get healthy hopefully we are winning .

I still say Why not??

You've seen how much a difference a Clint makes.   You've seen how much a difference a Bogi makes.  You've seen how much a difference a Dejounte makes.   These are key players. 

Now. you said, Toronto...  They are 14-18. 

You said Milwaukee without Middleton.   They are a good team even without Middleton.  18-8. 

Without Capela,  we are 2-4. 

Without Murray,  we are 2-3 

Without Bogi, we are 12-11. 

Without Collins we are 3-5. 

It's true, Milwaukee gets over the loss of Middleton better than we get over the loss of our key players.   To me, when healthy they are the best team in the East.   However, we don't really know what we are when Healthy...  But I refuse to believe that it's bad!

 

[Gray Mule]

Hawks may be a play-in team BUT:

Atlanta is #1 in our division with the Heat hot on our heels.  This puts us at #7 in the east.  If the Hawks can hold off the Heat and win our division, then we may not really be in the dreaded play-in.  We continue to cry about our health.  Capela is out tonight.  

 

[sturt]

[shakes]

9 hours ago, Diesel said:

We beat Milwakee twice

We beat Philly.

We beat Denver.

We beat the Knicks

We beat the Pelicans. 

We beat the Raptors

We beat the Kings. 

We beat the Bulls. 

 

Without key players playing, we have a track record of beating some of the best teams in the league... so what happens when we get everybody playing and develop chemistry?

 

This is the kind of homer post that really annoys me.  The usual case of blind homerism where you give your own team an excuse without allowing the other teams to have the same excuse.  Saem shit as last year when apparently we were the only team in the league who dealt with COVID and injuries.

 

2 wins vs Milwaukee = No Middleton for game 1, no Middleton or Holiday for game 2

W vs Denver = No MPJ

W vs Knicks = first of all, who cares, its the Knick.  Second of all, we beat them early in the year when they were still starting Fournier and we were full strength.  Then they got better and recently kicked the crap out of us.

W vs Pelicans = squeaked out an OT win at home when we had all our starters.

W vs Raps = no Siakim and we barely squeaked by with OT win at home.  Earlier in the year they beat us by 30. Also, they are terrible this year so why are they even listed here?

W vs Kings = woohoo, we beat the Kings at home!  Also, we had all our starters healhty and playing so once again this win shouldn't have been listed.

W vs Bulls  = Seriously?

 

Diesel, you should be embarrassed for posting such hypocritical Boolshite.

 

 

 

 

[shakes]

7 hours ago, bleachkit said:

Top 3 has probably sailed. But there's no reason we couldn't at least get to 5 or 6.

really?  I can think of about 10 reasons without putting much effort into it.

[JeffS17]

We're fighting with 4 different teams for the 6 seed right now.  I could also see Philly or Cleveland skidding backwards into the mix and it's a fight for the 5 seed.  Obviously it's not impossible we make a nice run and go hunting for the 4 seed, but I think we have seen enough of the season to be pleasantly surprised if that does happen.  4 seed, 5 seed, or 6 seed we should be able to make some noise if we can get things clicking in the last part of the regular season.  I'm hoping for the Nets or Sixers in the first round.

 

Every team in the NBA can come up with a list of reasons why their season will improve, so it's tough for me to take the homer disposition of health and chemistry and all that.  I don't closely follow the Knicks, Pacers, Heat, and Raptors, so maybe I can be convinced they've been at full strength playing their best basketball -- yet they are just decidedly mid tier.

[sturt]

 

I really don't have time today to get into it with anyone, but suffice it to say, some of us dig into the data and not just this season but from previous seasons, believing it's important to have context and sobriety in coming to conclusions... some just take the current surface data, and being predisposed to cynicism or to pollyanna-ism, come to a conclusion.

Count me with Diesel and others who don't avoid data, of course.... count me also with those who understand that dismissiveness isn't an argument... it's just dismissiveness.

 

 

But most importantly, in case you missed it.... count me as someone dog-determined to resist making any definitive conclusions as JTB suggested in the OP.

It's not my fault that we're not there yet, but we're not there yet. Things happen. This isn't a video game, it's real life. And that last year's EC champs were essentially in the same position our Hawks are in today can be dismissed... but not legitimately.

Heck, forget them, how about the previous year's Hawks who made it to the EC finals... how was that team looking at this point in the 2020-21 season?

 

Context is good.

Will pick this back up after we get back from the upcoming western road trip.

[Spud2nique]

1 minute ago, sturt said:

 

I really don't have time today to get into it with anyone,

 

Why what you got goin on? Whatever it is I’m sure you’ll be showing up as sober gopher himself…in the flesh! 

[sturt]

1 minute ago, Spud2nique said:

Why what you got goin on?

Thanks for your interest in my personal and professional life.... hehe... today and this week for that matter is devoted to a work retreat, planning for 2023.

[Final_quest]

3 minutes ago, sturt said:

It's not my fault that we're not there yet, but we're not there yet. Things happen. This isn't a video game, it's real life. And that last year's EC champs were essentially in the same position our Hawks are in today can be dismissed... but not legitimately. Hell, forget them, how about the previous year's Hawks who made it to the EC finals... how was that team looking at this point in the 2020-21 season?

Context is good.

Will pick this back up after we get back from the upcoming western road trip.

I see both sides.  Hanging your hat on the hope that you are a team that turns it on during the last 50 games because others have done it before is more of a fan, or even homer, take. 

If you want data analysis, I'm sure the data says teams in the top 3-4 in the conference at the 30 game mark are more likely to remain in the top 3-4.  Further that teams in the 7-10 range more often do not rise to become a top 4 seed.   I'm hopeful that we improve, but it's not because data is on our side.  We can't be ruled out because of data, but it's not like the data itself is projecting us to be a top seed.  

[shakes]

27 minutes ago, sturt said:

 

I really don't have time today to get into it with anyone, but suffice it to say, some of us dig into the data and not just this season but from previous seasons, believing it's important to have context and sobriety in coming to conclusions... some just take the current surface data, and being predisposed to cynicism or to pollyanna-ism, come to a conclusion.

Count me with Diesel and others who don't avoid data, of course.... count me also with those who understand that dismissiveness isn't an argument... it's just dismissiveness.

 

 

But most importantly, in case you missed it.... count me as someone dog-determined to resist making any definitive conclusions as JTB suggested in the OP.

It's not my fault that we're not there yet, but we're not there yet. Things happen. This isn't a video game, it's real life. And that last year's EC champs were essentially in the same position our Hawks are in today can be dismissed... but not legitimately.

Heck, forget them, how about the previous year's Hawks who made it to the EC finals... how was that team looking at this point in the 2020-21 season?

 

Context is good.

Will pick this back up after we get back from the upcoming western road trip.

 

TL;DR = Everyone take the 220 game pledge!

[macdaddy]

We've got a few weeks to truly evaluate but so far we haven't played very well at all.   If we continue to be inconsistent then we either have to move on to a new coach or make some trades.   Yeah we can play out the season only to lose in the first round but look where we sit as a team right now:  no one considers us a contender,  Trae is NEVER mentioned as a top player in the league despite having the same or better numbers than guys like Ja and Luka.   

Another throw away season will just be devastating to the Trae era Hawks.   I don't care if we go out in the second round as long as we aren't considered afterthoughts.   Right now we're just a middle of pack team.