2020-21 The Current Ask Supes

[Final_quest]

11 hours ago, NBASupes said:

We already have a big 3 with Trae, Cam, and Hunter. We are just waiting for Hunter to get healthy and Cam to take that leap. We have the three guys we know will carry the franchise. Okongwu could join as well. 

I would like to point out that most of our wins and our playoff run happened without Hunter and Reddish.  It’s strange to me that the entire board would rather have them than just about any player in the league.  
A lot to like about both of them, but Philly regrets not trading Simmons before his value went down.  I just don’t want to be blinded by love for our own guys.  Harrison Barnes had moments where he looked like a future star and GS traded him.  
I’m not yet convinced that Reddish and Hunter will both be All NBA level guys.

[thecampster]

33 minutes ago, Final_quest said:

I would like to point out that most of our wins and our playoff run happened without Hunter and Reddish.  It’s strange to me that the entire board would rather have them than just about any player in the league.  
A lot to like about both of them, but Philly regrets not trading Simmons before his value went down.  I just don’t want to be blinded by love for our own guys.  Harrison Barnes had moments where he looked like a future star and GS traded him.  
I’m not yet convinced that Reddish and Hunter will both be All NBA level guys.

Is it a character flaw, maybe but I'm kind of in ride or die mode with most of our team right now. I'm not a Solo fan, I'm realistic that Gallo only has at most a few productive years left and I'm disappointed in Bruno but the rest of the roster I'm pretty high on. I'd really like to see Skylar get more development. I love that kid's fire.

[marco102]

1 hour ago, Final_quest said:

I would like to point out that most of our wins and our playoff run happened without Hunter and Reddish.  It’s strange to me that the entire board would rather have them than just about any player in the league.  
A lot to like about both of them, but Philly regrets not trading Simmons before his value went down.  I just don’t want to be blinded by love for our own guys.  Harrison Barnes had moments where he looked like a future star and GS traded him.  
I’m not yet convinced that Reddish and Hunter will both be All NBA level guys.

Yeah, the other side of this is you trade them away and they reach their potential somewhere else. I'm not saying Hunter and Reddish are all NBA, but we should at least wait until their rookie contracts are up and re-sign them to see what we really have. This run was unexpected and has moved expectations forward, but I'd like to give our guys at least a couple more seasons to see how they progress before shipping them out for someone.

[kg01]

2 hours ago, Final_quest said:

I would like to point out that most of our wins and our playoff run happened without Hunter and Reddish.  It’s strange to me that the entire board would rather have them than just about any player in the league.  
A lot to like about both of them, but Philly regrets not trading Simmons before his value went down.  I just don’t want to be blinded by love for our own guys.  Harrison Barnes had moments where he looked like a future star and GS traded him.  
I’m not yet convinced that Reddish and Hunter will both be All NBA level guys.

I think we have to look at the run as a bit of a one-off.  Meaning, we can't expect to run through the playoffs the same as we did this past year.

I looked at how we played and thought how much easier it would be if we had our full compliment of wing players instead of asking Heurter/Bogd/Solo to act as primary defenders against guys they really had no business guarding.

I saw Trae carrying way too much of the load offensively too.

It's great we were able to do it without Hunter/Reddish but we shouldn't act like that's repeatable or that it was the preferred circumstance.

Agree with the concept of not holding onto guys too long but, as I keep saying, there ain't no stars available anyway so I'm not sure why we're having this discussion anyway.

[thecampster]

10 minutes ago, kg01 said:

 

Agree with the concept of not holding onto guys too long but, as I keep saying, there ain't no stars available anyway so I'm not sure why we're having this discussion anyway.

Burning off excess playoff energy.

Edited July 8, 2021 by thecampster

[kg01]

16 minutes ago, thecampster said:

Burning off excess playoff energy.

Hmm, so this is like the part where you sit back and have a cigarette?

Was it as good for you as it was for me, campst?

I mean the cigarette.  Get your minds outta the gutter.

[NBASupes]

2 hours ago, Final_quest said:

I would like to point out that most of our wins and our playoff run happened without Hunter and Reddish.  It’s strange to me that the entire board would rather have them than just about any player in the league.  
A lot to like about both of them, but Philly regrets not trading Simmons before his value went down.  I just don’t want to be blinded by love for our own guys.  Harrison Barnes had moments where he looked like a future star and GS traded him.  
I’m not yet convinced that Reddish and Hunter will both be All NBA level guys.

This is true but the Harrison Barnes part isn't true at all. 

There was never a time he flashed stardom. 

[Final_quest]

21 minutes ago, thecampster said:

Burning off excess playoff energy.

  

It definitely falls apart if no one is available.  I don't think Lillard would want to come to Atlanta, his skills are too similar to Trae.  It just doesn't fit.  

Also, this might not be the right offseason to make a move like this.  It could be next year or trade deadline.  OK, table this for now.

[kg01]

13 minutes ago, Final_quest said:

  

It definitely falls apart if no one is available.  I don't think Lillard would want to come to Atlanta, his skills are too similar to Trae.  It just doesn't fit.  

Also, this might not be the right offseason to make a move like this.  It could be next year or trade deadline.  OK, table this for now.

Your theories are sound and I actually think we all agree, so I didn't mean to shut down discussion completely.

I just don't see a difference-maker being available for a haul that wouldn't decimate the team.

So my vision going forward includes the roster as-is, for the most part.

But, if a star tries to exit his situation, I think the Hawks are in position to make a very attractive offer.

[REHawksFan]

1 hour ago, marco102 said:

Yeah, the other side of this is you trade them away and they reach their potential somewhere else. I'm not saying Hunter and Reddish are all NBA, but we should at least wait until their rookie contracts are up and re-sign them to see what we really have. This run was unexpected and has moved expectations forward, but I'd like to give our guys at least a couple more seasons to see how they progress before shipping them out for someone.

Worst thing the Hawks could do is blow it up. They have high ceiling young guys that helped the team achieve greater success than anyone expected.  Now is the time to hold on to them, watch them develop and see how far they can take the team.  If the team regresses as they get older, then we can have a discussion, but you don't trade away your young, promising players on rookie contracts before they have an opportunity to get better.  Just sit back and let the team marinate a little.  Any deals and moves should be on the edges, not from the core.  

To me, the core currently is:  Trae, Dre, Cam, OO, and K'von.  Deals that are done, if any, should include other players and should only be done if they are highly likely to make the team better in the postseason, imo.  Otherwise, just run it back with a few tweaks here and there. 

[thecampster]

People have asked me privately how I figure the cap pre season, make my predictions, negate rumors, etc. So I figured I'd do this before silly season begins as a Squawk primer. Had a hard time figuring out where to stick this article. This seemed as good a place as any. Campster brain dump incoming in 3, 2, 1.....

https://www.hoopsrumors.com/2020/12/nba-maximum-salary-projections-for-202122.html

 

In this article, you'll find this chart: 

Which is the max contract for a player signing with his own team.

Then you'll see this similar chart:

Which is the max contract for a player signing with another team.

These are estimates based on a $112 million dollar cap.  There is confusion out there when discussing what a John Collins contract would look like. Use these 6 year or less columns as a starting point.  Assume that whatever Collins gets, that's about what a healthy Hunter would command in 2 years (barring an increase/decrease in production).

 

Current state of the Hawks, 5 rookie contracts edition.

Collins RFA

Trae, Huerter - 4 year extension eligible today. RFA at the end of 2021/22 season.

Hunter, Reddish - 4 year extension eligible next year. RFA at the end of 2022/23 season.

 

Hawks other committed salaries through 2022. (RFA Trae, Huerter)

$71.67 million (Gallinari, Bogdanovic, Capela, Okongwu, Bruno, 1st round pick, 6 min roster charges).

Hawks other committed salaries through 2023 (RFA Reddish/Hunter)

$61.4 million (BB, Cap, OO, 1st (2021), 2 x 1sts (2022), $5 mil guaranteed Gallo, 5 min roster charges).

Hawks other 2024 - Capela and Gallo's 5 million fall off. 1 new draft pick).

Okay so this is how I see it when looking at it. I don't assume any other salaries because people can be waived/traded signed to 1 year deals. Assuming an average yearly salary for all 5 of our main rookie salaries right now of $20 mil (Trae more, Huerter less but 20 mil each average).  That's $100 million that will need to be fit under the LT by end of summer 2023. 5 of the minimum roster charges will fall off and into that $100 million.

There are 3 glaring problems here:

1 Bogie's cap number of $18 MIL is reasonable but lasts throughout this cycle. You are going to have to choose between him and 1 of Huerter/Reddish/Hunter to make this all work (eventually).

2. That non-guaranteed year with a $5 million cap hit for Gallo is going to be a problem. It comes in Trae/Huerter's RFA season. Keeping him costs $21 million against the cap. Waiving him costs $5 million in the Trae/Huerter RFA contract year. Gallo is a luxury we can afford this year, but not next. I expect the Hawks to move him (intuition, deduction and rumor) while they can get back value. He is the biggest cap red flag on the team right now.

3. Capela's 2 remaining years are at a very reasonable salary. They could easily keep or  trade him. Looking at our cap structure, he was obviously valued because of his salary structure remaining. Moving him in a package deal for a legit all-star seems to be the best bet if you can sign one of the other value centers.

Other considerations -

Snell is gone unless he comes back at a big discount.

Dunn's salary is a player option. We have no input. Given he's been mostly unplayable for 17 months, expect him to opt in and work his tale off on shooting to earn his next deal. This season is make or break for Dunn. Also, you can't trade Dunn until he opts in making any deal for him unlikely. Expect him to be a Hawk next season (gut feeling and experience).

Lou is only back on a 2 years or less deal at a big discount.

I do not expect Goodwin back. He was LP's pet project.

I expect Mays back. A strong showing in summer league could cement his roster spot and even rotation minutes.

I don't know about Knight. He played awful down the stretch when given time.

 

 

Edited July 8, 2021 by thecampster

[Blunt91]

     Seems like Sharife Cooper is popular among a lot of posters.  I think he is a good player but don't know if he is right for the Hawks.   I am not too concerned about his size as more of him thinking he is "The Man" already.   I don't see him playing behind Trae more than a year or two before he will want to start.  Watching his interview with Mike Schmitz I can just tell that even though he seems like a "Good Guy" he still has a bit of cockiness about him,  I don't see him playing 2nd fiddle to Trae for too long.   It would be similar to the Reggie Jackson when he got tired of playing behind Westbrook.     Oh yeah, he also unintentionally slighted the city of Atlanta.  Mike Schmitz asked him about his "Game" he brings to the court and he said something along the lines of I think I bring that New Jersey style of play to the court.  Cooper's family moved to Atlanta when he was 6 years old.  Better put some respect on the Atlanta & the state of GA.  

[NBASupes]

I've said this before but don't think if Atlanta can't have a reasonable cost in mind that they won't trade Kevin to New Orleans for Kevin Huerter. They have had interest in Huerter for awhile and really want him bad. 

As I keep saying. There is a lot more interest in Kevin than JC even if Kevin is no where near as expensive salary demand wise. 

[kg01]

7 minutes ago, NBASupes said:

I've said this before but don't think if Atlanta can't have a reasonable cost in mind that they won't trade Kevin to New Orleans for Kevin Huerter. They have had interest in Huerter for awhile and really want him bad. 

As I keep saying. There is a lot more interest in Kevin than JC even if Kevin is no where near as expensive salary demand wise. 

Trade him to NOP for who?

[Peoriabird]

7 minutes ago, NBASupes said:

I've said this before but don't think if Atlanta can't have a reasonable cost in mind that they won't trade Kevin to New Orleans for Kevin Huerter. They have had interest in Huerter for awhile and really want him bad. 

As I keep saying. There is a lot more interest in Kevin than JC even if Kevin is no where near as expensive salary demand wise. 

The Hawks are not trading Huerter to Keep Bogi

[NBASupes]

10 minutes ago, Peoriabird said:

The Hawks are not trading Huerter to Keep Bogi

Hawks can't keep everyone and Bogi is under a great contract. 

11 minutes ago, kg01 said:

Trade him to NOP for who?

10th overall pick.

[Peoriabird]

34 minutes ago, NBASupes said:

Hawks can't keep everyone and Bogi is under a great contract.

How is his contract great???   He will be 32 at the end of his contract and is constantly injured.  Injured 3 times this year alone.  I personally would choose Huerter over Bogi easily

[kg01]

19 minutes ago, NBASupes said:

10th overall pick.

Meh.  I dont like that action, bawse.

[NBASupes]

19 minutes ago, Peoriabird said:

How is his contract great???   He will be 32 at the end of his contract and is constantly injured.  Injured 3 times this year alone.  I personally would chose Huerter over Bogi easily

I do too. But Bogi isn't worth shit on the trade block. Kevin outside Hunter and Trae has the highest trade value.

[Peoriabird]

3 minutes ago, NBASupes said:

I do too. But Bogi isn't worth shit on the trade block. Kevin outside Hunter and Trae has the highest trade value.

Don't think we are in the acquiring asset mode anymore so neither trade value matters anymore.  Best team roster does.