No Extension for John Collins

[bleachkit]

Trae taking 25 shots a game is not our pathway to winning. Maybe some nights when he is really cooking, but generally a more efficient, passing oriented Trae is the one we want.

[bleachkit]

1 minute ago, AHF said:

Trae's .595% last season blows away Kobe's career high.

Im not here to defend Kobe. Not a fan of high volume, low efficiency scoring.

[kg01]

Haha, we wanna Trae'd Young now?

[AHF]

10 minutes ago, bleachkit said:

Im not here to defend Kobe. Not a fan of high volume, low efficiency scoring.

It isn't just Kobe.  His .595% looks very good historically.

LeBron .586% TS%

Jordan .569% TS%

Kareem .592% TS%

Etc.

If you think he can be at the level of scoring efficiency he was last season, then you should feel good about Trae's scoring efficiency as the lead scorer for this team.  Even with his pretty severe struggles lately, he is still above .550% so I fully expect him to be around last season's level once his FG% climbs back to a more normal rate (currently at 38.6%).

[bleachkit]

2 minutes ago, AHF said:

It isn't just Kobe.  His .595% looks very good historically.

LeBron .586% TS%

Jordan .569% TS%

Kareem .592% TS%

Etc.

If you think he can be at the level of scoring efficiency he was last season, then you should feel good about Trae's scoring efficiency as the lead scorer for this team.  Even with his pretty severe struggles lately, he is still above .550% so I fully expect him to be around last season's level once his FG% climbs back to a more normal rate (currently at 38.6%).

Trae had a great year last year. No question. But TS% tends to favor guys that shoot a lot of free throws. For example, James Harden shoots above .600 every year. The merits of that can be debated both ways. Would you consider Harden more efficient than LeBron?

[RedDawg#8]

48 minutes ago, bleachkit said:

I have been on record saying guys like Kobe and AI were somewhat overrated. Teams now know that high volume inefficient scoring is not winning basketball. Also, Kobe's career true shooting is brought down significantly by bad years early and late in his career. 

So, kind of like years 1-3 maybe? Which is where we are judging Trae

[JeffS17]

10 minutes ago, AHF said:

It isn't just Kobe.  His .595% looks very good historically.

LeBron .586% TS%

Jordan .569% TS%

Kareem .592% TS%

Etc.

If you think he can be at the level of scoring efficiency he was last season, then you should feel good about Trae's scoring efficiency as the lead scorer for this team.  Even with his pretty severe struggles lately, he is still above .550% so I fully expect him to be around last season's level once his FG% climbs back to a more normal rate (currently at 38.6%).

Nah, Trae doesn't need to improve his FG%, look at last game:

• 3/8 FG (37.5%)
• .729 TS%

This is why I hate TS% for the record.  I prefer EFG% so you don't get the benefit of a bunch of free buckets at the end of the game when teams start fouling.  I also prefer to see how good guys are at scoring excluding free throws because the refs seem to swallow their whistle at times, so relying on free throws isn't great.  We've normalized getting to the line as a key skill but I'll take a guy that can get buckets without relying on poor defense/refs blowing the whistle any day

[AHF]

4 minutes ago, bleachkit said:

Trae had a great year last year. No question. But TS% tends to favor guys that shoot a lot of free throws. For example, James Harden shoots above .600 every year. The merits of that can be debated both ways. Would you consider Harden more efficient than LeBron?

They are at least comparably efficient scoring the ball.  LeBron's most efficient scoring seasons are driven by high 3pt% and high free throw rate.  Getting to the line is a good thing if you can make those shots.  

[AHF]

1 minute ago, JeffS17 said:

Nah, Trae doesn't need to improve his FG%, look at last game:

• 3/8 FG (37.5%)
• .729 TS%

This is why I hate TS% for the record.  I prefer EFG% so you don't get the benefit of a bunch of free buckets at the end of the game when teams start fouling.  I also prefer to see how good guys are at scoring excluding free throws because the refs seem to swallow their whistle at times, so relying on free throws isn't great.  We've normalized getting to the line as a key skill but I'll take a guy that can get buckets without relying on poor defense/refs blowing the whistle any day

I do agree that it would be useful to pull out the non-shooting end game free throws.  But free throws on actual offensive possessions should absolutely be counted.  If a guy goes 0-10 but gets fouled every time and puts up 23 points (being fouled on 7 2pt attempts and 3 3pt attempts) that is 23 points on 10 FGA and is highly efficient. 

EFG% is not enough to capture true efficiency and favors guys like Kevin Huerter and Damian Jones who don't go to the line.

As @Gray Mule would tell you, the points from the line count every bit as much as the ones from the field.

[bleachkit]

2 minutes ago, RedDawg#8 said:

So, kind of like years 1-3 maybe? Which is where we are judging Trae

For every Kobe, there are 10 guys who end up flaming out. I dont know what Trae's future holds, but I think prudent basketball minds can agree that being an undersized high volume, low efficiency scoring guard has not been historically associated with winning as the teams best player. He is however a brilliant passer, and I think that will be the skill that unlocks his greatness.

[JeffS17]

4 minutes ago, AHF said:

I do agree that it would be useful to pull out the non-shooting end game free throws.  But free throws on actual offensive possessions should absolutely be counted.  If a guy goes 0-10 but gets fouled every time and puts up 23 points (being fouled on 7 2pt attempts and 3 3pt attempts) that is 23 points on 10 FGA and is highly efficient. 

EFG% is not enough to capture true efficiency and favors guys like Kevin Huerter and Damian Jones who don't go to the line.

As @Gray Mule would tell you, the points from the line count every bit as much as the ones from the field.

Yeah, hard disagree from me.  I don't want any players that are shooting 0% when guys don't foul them.  That means your entire game relies on the defense fouling... not exactly what you want in crunch time (or any time).

Re-reading your example, I think you are misconstruing the stats.  If you are fouled, the FGA gets stripped out of your denominator.  In the example you gave, the player would actually be 0/0 with 23 points.  That's a much different story than 0/10 with 23 points.

[JeffS17]

Also, EFG% doesn't "favor" anyone, just guys who make their shots... and if Heurter is making 40% of his 3s and Collins is making 55% of his midrange jumpers, you still want Heurter taking the shot assuming all circumstances are equal.  That's what EFG% is measuring.

It's just measuring points per shot.  In this example Heurter is 1.2 and Collins is 1.1

[AHF]

2 minutes ago, JeffS17 said:

Yeah, hard disagree from me.  I don't want any players that are shooting 0% when guys don't foul them.  That means your entire game relies on the defense fouling... not exactly what you want in crunch time (or any time).

Re-reading your example, I think you are misconstruing the stats.  If you are fouled, the FGA gets stripped out of your denominator.  In the example you gave, the player would actually be 0/0 with 23 points.  That's a much different story than 0/10 with 23 points.

Right (for efg%) but why wouldn't you recognize that he had 10 scoring opportunities, got fouled 10 times and scored points on those attempts?  The whole reason that fts don't get a full weighting in TS% is because a portion of them are a non-shooting fouls.

EFG% doesn't measure your scoring efficiency.  It measures your shooting accuracy.  Those are different figures because the points you score when you are fouled count.

[macdaddy]

6 minutes ago, JeffS17 said:

Re-reading your example, I think you are misconstruing the stats.  If you are fouled, the FGA gets stripped out of your denominator.  In the example you gave, the player would actually be 0/0 with 23 points.  That's a much different story than 0/10 with 23 points.

Phew.  I thought i was missing something.   Thanks.

[AHF]

5 minutes ago, JeffS17 said:

Also, EFG% doesn't "favor" anyone, just guys who make their shots... and if Heurter is making 40% of his 3s and Collins is making 55% of his midrange jumpers, you still want Heurter taking the shot assuming all circumstances are equal.  That's what EFG% is measuring.

It doesn't "favor" anyone as a measure of shooting accuracy.

It does as a measure of scoring efficiency because it disregards the impact of free throws.  

EFG% doesn't measure scoring efficiency and shouldn't be used for that purpose.

[JeffS17]

1 minute ago, AHF said:

Right (for efg%) but why wouldn't you recognize that he had 10 scoring opportunities, got fouled 10 times and scored points on those attempts?  The whole reason that fts don't get a full weighting in TS% is because a portion of them are a non-shooting fouls.

EFG% doesn't measure your scoring efficiency.  It measures your shooting accuracy.  Those are different figures because the points you score when you are fouled count.

Yeah, exactly -- I want guys who can shoot well, so that's why I favor EFG%.  Neither metric is perfect, I just prefer it.  I think free throws should be accounted for in some way, but I actually think it should be a knock on the defenders stats instead of a positive for the attacking player.  It would be way harder to quantify this way so I get why we do it, but I just don't like the stat that much -- requires too much context to really digest.

It's not a secret refs tend to swallow their whistles more late in the game so guys who can get buckets are needed.  Trae brake checking guys in the lane isn't going to close out games for us.  That's really where we've struggled the most.  All that said, I don't think Trae being "the guy" is going to be a matter of how well he plays offense, but really how much closer he can get to being an average defender.

[AHF]

8 minutes ago, macdaddy said:

Phew.  I thought i was missing something.   Thanks.

The point I was trying to make is that a player in that scenario had 10 scoring opportunities and ended up with 23 points.  EFG% doesn't count those at all.  If that player had 10 more non-fouled attempts from the field and goes 4-10 (1-3 3pt) then he end up with 34 points but that counts the same as if he had only scored 11 points.

Player 1 - 20 scoring opportunities.  Draws 10 fouls and goes 4-10 (1-3):  34 points.  EFG% 45%.  

Player 2 - 20 scoring opportunities.  Draws 0 fouls and goes 10-20 (0-0):  20 points.  EFG% 50%.

Who was the more efficient scorer?  (Hint: the guy with the lower efg% was by far the more efficient scorer.)

 

[JeffS17]

5 minutes ago, AHF said:

The point I was trying to make is that a player in that scenario had 10 scoring opportunities and ended up with 23 points.  EFG% doesn't count those at all.  If that player had 10 more non-fouled attempts from the field and goes 4-10 (1-3 3pt) then he end up with 34 points but that counts the same as if he had only scored 11 points.

Player 1 - 20 scoring opportunities.  Draws 10 fouls and goes 4-10 (1-3):  34 points.  EFG% 45%.  

Player 2 - 20 scoring opportunities.  Draws 0 fouls and goes 10-20 (0-0):  20 points.  EFG% 50%.

Who was the more efficient scorer?  (Hint: the guy with the lower efg% was by far the more efficient scorer.)

 

I think we all understand you're effectively scoring more points and that's what TS% is attempting to measure, despite some of the obvious flaws -- I'm just giving my opinion that I don't want my players to rely on free throws to score.  It's not reliable that guys will foul you and they typically let guys play more physical in the playoffs/crunch time, so I don't want to see Trae or any of our guys flailing around crying for fouls when they could have been concentrating on getting a bucket

[AHF]

16 minutes ago, JeffS17 said:

I think we all understand you're effectively scoring more points and that's what TS% is attempting to measure, despite some of the obvious flaws -- I'm just giving my opinion that I don't want my players to rely on free throws to score.  It's not reliable that guys will foul you and they typically let guys play more physical in the playoffs/crunch time, so I don't want to see Trae or any of our guys flailing around crying for fouls when they could have been concentrating on getting a bucket

I get that and agree our guys can't rely on getting bailed out but let's not pretend like the ability to draw free throws doesn't comprise an important part of a player's playoff success.

Michael Jordan 6x Champion

- Regular Season:  .509% EFG%, 6.8 points on 8.2 FTA from free throws

- Playoff Numbers:  .504% EFG%, 8.2 points on 9.9 FTA from free throws

(Other players who averaged more FTAs in the playoffs than regular season include Magic Johnson, Larry Bird, LeBron James, John Stockton, Isiah Thomas, etc.)

So I'm definitely in agreement with you that I don't want guys flailing around looking for a bailout foul but you can and should develop the ability to draw fouls as part of your game if you want to be a go-to scorer.  LeBron has been doing that for years and those 9 FTAs per playoff game help make up for the dropoff between his regular season efg% and his post-season efg%.

If guys are being coached and doing the right things themselves to strengthen their game they will do both of these things.  Huerter is a guy who I would say needs a lot of work drawing more fouls if he wants to be more than a role player.

[JayBirdHawk]

There was a time not so long ago when we had no one that could get us freethrows, I'm not gonna complain. Get them freethrows Trae.

We once had ZERO Freethrows in a half during the Josh Smoth error.