The cobbled together, stuff we held on to during the playoffs mega super rumor and team direction thread.

[Mikey]

4 hours ago, thecampster said:

I kind of have a policy not to engage people on this board on cap/trade conversations but I am highly confident in what I'm saying based on a number of factors and since you decided to flick the tiger in the gonads, 

 

I'll lay it out.

 

When consummating trades, NBA teams look at a number of factors. Most people when trying to match salary attempt to match salary 1 for 1 but this is not the case.  Salaries can be matched .8 to 1 or 1 to 1.25 (+100k) in most cases.  NBA teams don't see value like you and I see value.  They slot players in a S/A/B/C/D/E format (or similar data points).  In a theoretical sense, 2 E's = a D and so on but you don't trade 8 D's to get an A even if the math works out.  On top of that, Most contending teams set their team's ideal team salary as (2 S (max), 1 A, 1 B and a combination of C's and D's to round it out.).  Where trades can be pushed more or less in your favor is if the player ability is greater than his Contract.  They use a matrix of value similar to what I'm showing below.

 

Using the above chart, Gobert is an A ability player but an S level salary.  Technically, he is a poor value. Rarely is an A or S level player a good value, typically only if they're on their rookie contract or were acquired after a buy out.  NBA teams understand this and accept it.

 

Clint is a B level player on a B level contract.  He is Neutral value (see the chart).  So although Gobert technically has more ability he charts lower in value, he can also keep you from getting another good, great or superior player.  Hunter is a C/B level player on a D/C level contract.  If he were locked in, Hunter would be a good value, but he's not locked in and will command more later so he's not as good a value as he seems.  Technically, a deal for Clint and Hunter is a neutral and good level contract + a good value draft pick for a poor level value player (even though is superior in ability).  In this scenario of value, Utah gets back neutral + good +good for poor value. 

 

Lets explore a few others.  This past season, Huerter was a good value as he was a C level player but on a D/E level contract. Although he had flaws, he was such a small bit of the salary cap his value was good.  However, his salary goes up considerably next year to the B level. His C level performance will drop this from a Great to Excellent value down to a poor value. Huerter will have to step it up.

By contrast, Bogi was a B level player when healthy but had times of lower performance. If Huerter was a mid C, Bogi was a high C to low B.  But a salary of B to A level pushes him to a neutral to poor value.  My contrast of Bogi and Huerter will probably take a turn next year, as since Huerter got paid, more is going to be asked of him to live up to that contract. The "value" comparison will change.

 

Lets contrast Trae here.

I see Trae as A level ability (S Offense, D defense (at best)).  Last year when only making $8 million, he was on a D/C level salary.  This is unicorn level output. Only a few people a year have this kind of disparity in their ability vs salary and most are on rookie contracts. This puts him in good to great value and is why we could afford to pay someone. Instead of 2 S level ability players we had a bunch of B/A's. Its also why stepping up in the playoffs is a roulette table. B level players are not on all the time.

 

Trading is not as simple as "he's great, you have to give up more to get him" and I've struggled to explain this to people on the regular. There are numerous factors, the 2 most important of which to teams are chemistry and the salary cap. As currently constructed, the Jazz are 4 players short for next season and are already slighting in to the LT.  Utah doesn't want to take back a max contract for Gobert but instead wants a few contracts to spread out their salary to minimize or eliminate their LT impact. If Utah believes they can package 16 and their pick to move up and they believe that player and the wing Atlanta includes will be upgrades to what they have, they'll accept the downgrade from Gobert to Clint.  

The problem that Utah is going to face is the impact drop off of Gobert to any shlub center they can sign is so great, they have to get back a center with a reasonable drop off in return. That is a very limited set of centers in the league. It has to be a top 15 center or the gap would be too large to make up as currently constructed and top 15 centers are rarely available to trade. Clint is one of the few available players who would meet that criteria and be better than neutral value.

 

No criticizing the lecture, you flicked the tiger. If you were here longer, you'd know it was a bad idea.

[Removed unnecessary personal shot]

 

You typed a lot of explaining how contracts work but failed to acknowledge any bit of the precedent set of trading for star players. You also left out many factors like who are you dealing with (in this case Danny Ainge and group). Yes Gobert value may be lowered because of his contract but it will not be low to the point you can just salary match for a trade. That does not give Utah any sense of direction (it does not help them in title contention and it also does not help them rebuild). And even you just said they will need to add pick 16 . Stars packages are not salary matches until they have absolutely fallen off a cliff.

You aren't a tiger. Youre just another fish in the sea. Now go on and tell us about some rumors that literally any fan that can read between the lines can make up. I bet like all of them they wont ever come to fruition. Enjoy your day and enjoy your chart

[Mikey]

case in point just look at what James Harden went for and he is showing signs of a decline. Harden obviously better than gobert but at least gobert as not shown any health issues. But yeah certainly your chart is right!!!

[shakes]

2 hours ago, Diesel said:

Ei

 

As I have said before.. I would rather we not trade for Gobert, draft Mark Williams and let him be the third C of our rotation.   A go after a scoring defensive wing...

 

If not Williams, then we can pick up a 7 footer in FAcy for cheap. 

 

Williams isn't going to be around when we pick.   

[thecampster]

2 hours ago, Mikey said:

[Removed unnecessary personal shot]

 

You typed a lot of explaining how contracts work but failed to acknowledge any bit of the precedent set of trading for star players. You also left out many factors like who are you dealing with (in this case Danny Ainge and group). Yes Gobert value may be lowered because of his contract but it will not be low to the point you can just salary match for a trade. That does not give Utah any sense of direction (it does not help them in title contention and it also does not help them rebuild). And even you just said they will need to add pick 16 . Stars packages are not salary matches until they have absolutely fallen off a cliff.

You aren't a tiger. Youre just another fish in the sea. Now go on and tell us about some rumors that literally any fan that can read between the lines can make up. I bet like all of them they wont ever come to fruition. Enjoy your day and enjoy your chart

So the great things about communities like this is some of the posters on this board have known each other for 20 years.  A bit of history, some of the people on the Squawk posted on group boards with each other before RealGM or the squawk ever started.  Way, way, way long ago, this board was started and maintained by a couple of those people. There have been a few iterations of the Squawk going back a very, very long time. A number of us are holdovers from back then.  I'm not even sure how to get into the old archives but the things you hear from some posters on this board are culminated, groomed thoughts of years of interacting with each other.  Long ago we grew past arguing with others in most cases.

This isn't to say you or anyone else isn't welcome here or that your opinions aren't valuable but many of the things said here go against years of history in most cases.  We were all here debating such great things as "Will Chris Crawford ever live up to his potential?", "Should we really be trading away Nique while we're battling for the #1 seed?", "Will Steve Smith be better here than Miami?", "When will @Diesel learn to just hug it out with Marvin?" 

We were on the board and some of us joined up at the old Omni to see Josh Smith get drafted. There's a lot of wisdom here and none of us claim to be the keeper of all knowledge. 

I won't speak to the other guys who've claimed insider knowledge, but I can only say that there are plenty of examples of stories being broken on here that end up in the media days later.  I leave you with one of my favorite quotes - "For those who believe, no proof is necessary. For those who don't believe, no proof is possible" - Stuart Chase.

Of course you can go with my other favorite quote: "When the facts are on your side, pound the facts. When the law is on your side, pound the law. When neither is on you side, pound the table."   In our early days, there was a lot of table pounding here. Not so much anymore.

[thecampster]

45 minutes ago, Mikey said:

case in point just look at what James Harden went for and he is showing signs of a decline. Harden obviously better than gobert but at least gobert as not shown any health issues. But yeah certainly your chart is right!!!

Yes, lets look at what Harden, a top 10 offensive player in the league netted.

First, lets remember he was packaged with Millsap.

2 first round picks (from a team picking in the 20's), a player who refused to play, a defense challenged bench playing shooter and a center on the downside of his career.  I'm not sure the point you're making. You had 2 malcontents traded for each other with some value role playing bench players in Drummond and Curry and 2 lower value picks.

 

Your point exactly?   

 

You couldn't trade Gobert straight up for Harden but all of a sudden you expect more in trade compensation.  Player value, Hunter + 16 > Curry/Drummond right now, forget Capela.

 

 

[Sothron]

2 hours ago, Mikey said:

[Removed unnecessary personal shot]

 

You typed a lot of explaining how contracts work but failed to acknowledge any bit of the precedent set of trading for star players. You also left out many factors like who are you dealing with (in this case Danny Ainge and group). Yes Gobert value may be lowered because of his contract but it will not be low to the point you can just salary match for a trade. That does not give Utah any sense of direction (it does not help them in title contention and it also does not help them rebuild). And even you just said they will need to add pick 16 . Stars packages are not salary matches until they have absolutely fallen off a cliff.

You aren't a tiger. Youre just another fish in the sea. Now go on and tell us about some rumors that literally any fan that can read between the lines can make up. I bet like all of them they wont ever come to fruition. Enjoy your day and enjoy your chart

This was needlessly insulting. He actually gave you a rough approximation of the actual charts real front office people use. You have heard of analytics and research in sports I hope? You can believe or disbelieve any of the insider rumors but what he was talking about is real actual front office information. It isn't as common for fans to know like the NFL draft pick values and trade chart as a result but it is there for the NBA.

[kg01]

4 minutes ago, Sothron said:

This was needlessly insulting. He actually gave you a rough approximation of the actual charts real front office people use. You have heard of analytics and research in sports I hope? You can believe or disbelieve any of the insider rumors but what he was talking about is real actual front office information. It isn't as common for fans to know like the NFL draft pick values and trade chart as a result but it is there for the NBA.

I don't know what people want nowadays.

[marco102]

24 minutes ago, kg01 said:

I don't know what people want nowadays.

To be right.  So instead of acknowledging the post, they buckle down and get offensive. 

[thecampster]

33 minutes ago, Sothron said:

This was needlessly insulting. He actually gave you a rough approximation of the actual charts real front office people use. You have heard of analytics and research in sports I hope? You can believe or disbelieve any of the insider rumors but what he was talking about is real actual front office information. It isn't as common for fans to know like the NFL draft pick values and trade chart as a result but it is there for the NBA.

 

27 minutes ago, kg01 said:

I don't know what people want nowadays.

 

2 minutes ago, marco102 said:

To be right.  So instead of acknowledging the post, they buckle down and get offensive. 

 

I'm not salty though. I get it. I don't get on here to argue or fight. Those days are behind me.  If I'm posting, its usually just trying to elevate the conversation. I've seen the squawk move that way in recent years. I lot more nuanced discussion (and good KG/Spud jokes as well).

[shakes]

13 minutes ago, thecampster said:

 

 

 

I'm not salty though. I get it. I don't get on here to argue or fight. Those days are behind me.  If I'm posting, its usually just trying to elevate the conversation. I've seen the squawk move that way in recent years. I lot more nuanced discussion (and good KG/Spud jokes as well).

I don't come here to fight, but I do enjoy when there are fights.   You guys can't see it because I'm on a computer, but after I read that inflammatory post earlier in the thread I  shouted out "WORLD STAR" and then I hit like.

 

 

Edited May 20, 2022 by shakes

[Hawkmoor]

25 minutes ago, thecampster said:

 

 

 

. I lot more nuanced discussion (and good KG/Spud jokes as well).

Good luck with that.

Edited May 20, 2022 by Hawkmoor

[thecampster]

Just now, shakes said:

I don't come here to fight, but I do enjoy when there are fights.   You guys can't see it because I'm on a computer, but after I read that inflammatory post I  shouted out "WORLD STAR" and then I hit like.

 

 

A very common topic in most college business programs is the danger of group think.  The internet is the giant vat of group think. People tend to sit in their group thought bubbles and only listen to things they agree with and then venture out to expose others to those thoughts. They are so used to only hearing 1 real point of view that they aggressively attack opposing view points and cheer loudly when others agree. It's become so extreme on the internet that when people are being disrespectful or rude, they don't realize it because they see the person they are in disagreement with as diametrically opposed to reason.

I remember a graph in one of my classes about this that the more isolated a group becomes, the farther from center they move, the less likely they are to see points of agreement, the more all or nothing their points of contention become. This happens on both ends of the spectrum. The farther from center you move, the less exposed to information you become and by extension the less educated.  

Fandom falls into this category on a 30 points from center.  The more a fan of the Hawks you are, the less likely you are to be informed on players across the league. The more of a basketball generalist you are, the less likely you are to be engaged with the nuanced feelings of your favorite team.  I think because this is the internet, people find themselves arguing from a point of view that isn't appropriate to who they are arguing with.  Their perception of what is typed is affected by their worldview and they get angry or joyful when its not exactly how they interpreted it.

[thecampster]

2 minutes ago, Hawkmoor said:

Good luck with that.

Well communities change constantly and the exchanges elevate and dip in waves. You can see the change in people's responses over time and how it fits the board or the board changes to fit them.

 

[kg01]

19 minutes ago, thecampster said:

I'm not salty though. I get it. I don't get on here to argue or fight. Those days are behind me.  If I'm posting, its usually just trying to elevate the conversation. I've seen the squawk move that way in recent years. I lot more nuanced discussion (and good KG/Spud jokes as well).

"I'm just here to elevate the discussion, blah, blah, blah ..." - Keanu voice

Yeah I bet your pinky pokes out at a 45-degree angle when you drink your craft teas too.

6 minutes ago, shakes said:

I don't come here to fight, but I do enjoy when there are fights.   You guys can't see it because I'm on a computer, but after I read that inflammatory post earlier in the thread I  shouted out "WORLD STAR" and then I hit like.

The funny part is you thinking you're the only one that does that.

[Hawkmoor]

1 minute ago, thecampster said:

Well communities change constantly and the exchanges elevate and dip in waves. You can see the change in people's responses over time and how it fits the board or the board changes to fit them.

 

Folks don't change.

[macdaddy]

I just want to say, with all do respect, and remember i'm saying with all due respect, I think you are all idiots. 

[thecampster]

Just now, macdaddy said:

I just want to say, with all do respect, and remember i'm saying with all due respect, I think you are all idiots. 

Crap, he said all do respect....now I can't get offended!!! 

[h4wkfan]

Just now, thecampster said:

Crap, he said all do respect....now I can't get offended!!! 

Throw in a “bless your heart” and it is game on! 

[macdaddy]

Just now, thecampster said:

Crap, he said all do respect....now I can't get offended!!! 

Damn and I spelled it wrong!  Self own.

[macdaddy]

Someone give me the scoop on Lavine.   I know there is concern about his ability to stay healthy but I like the guy.   What are the squawk knocks on him?  I know there are always are some.