Official Game Thread: Hawks at heat -- THE Play-In Game!

[lethalweapon3]

“Needed a bigger spot to house all my Participation Trophies, so…”

 

It’s not Ka-SEE-Yah! No, not CASE-Yah. Not CASEY-uh, nor CASSIE-uh.

It’s Kuh-SAY-ahh. The venue for today’s 7-versus-8 Play-In between the Miami heat and your Atlanta Hawks (7:30 PM Eastern, TNT, 92.9 FM in ATL) sports a new no-mo-Crypto-Bro sponsored name, Kaseya Center, that rolls off the tongue easy. If you’re a dentist.

Kaseya, a software company that relocated to SoFla a few years ago, insists that if you can pronounce Adebayo or Herro or Spoelstra without flinching, you can get used to sayin’ Kaseya. Now, please turn your head to the bowl on the side, and spit!

On that note, I’m just out here spit-balling, per usual. I sure hope replacement coach Quin Snyder has some wrinkles for the starched shirt Erik Spoelstra wraps around Trae Young that keeps him and the Hawks offense so pressed. Because I have few ideas ironed out in my head that are worth sharing.

Sure, here in Statlanta, we’ve got Trae’s Scottie Pippen, aka Dejounte Murray (20-plus-PPG and 6-plus-APG teammates for the first time in the NBA since MJ & Pip ‘92), precisely to give Jimmy Butler, Kyle Lowry (questionable, sore knee), and Victor Oladipo someone else to hound. Further, De’Andre Hunter won’t be haunted by 3-and-Troll specialist P.J. Tucker this go-round.

Clint Capela’s at full health, which wasn’t the case in last year’s gentleman’s sweep of a first-round series, while Onyeka Okongwu will have a greater role at both ends in this postseason meeting under Quin’s watch. There’ll be no Danilo Gallinari filling in for Capela in the starting five, and hopefully Atlanta’s perimeter threats will fare better than Gallo and Kevin Huerter did last year.

Ultimately, whether or not we’re spending the balance of the week prepping for DPOY finalist Sam Hauser, Finals MVP finalist Payton Pritchard and the Boston Celtics depends more on what Miami carries to the floor today. Last year’s version of #heatculture ranked top-ten in both offensive and defensive efficiencies. This season, the heat have cooled to bottom-ten in the league on the offensive side (25^th in O-Rating and team eFG%, incl. 27^th in 3FG%; 21^st in O-Reb% and 2FG%).

We know all about the 41 wins and 41 losses (26-26 in NBA East, 8-8 in NBA Southeast, 5-5 over last ten, etc.) befitting of a broke-even Atlanta team. But it is actually the Hawks (+24), not the 44-38 heat (-26), that concluded this season scoring more points than they allowed. That has as much to do with Miami’s anemic offense as Atlanta, when they keep turnovers down, supersoaking the nets.

Managerial Darth Vader Pat Riley shipped off the grousing Dewayne Dedmon, then brought in two vets, Cody Zeller and Kevin Love, in hopes of helping shots find their way into the inside of baskets. Despite Zeller’s best efforts, Love (29.7 3FG%) only managed to drag the percentages down.

The heat offensive gameplan is to pound the life out of the shot clocks (29^th in Pace), then run into somebody, plead, and draw favorable whistles (3^rd in fouls drawn, only 17^th in fouls committed), then exploit the one spot on the floor where they’re actually good shooters: the charity stripe (83.1 FT%, 2^nd in NBA). Despite routinely shooting so bad from the floor, the heat bear a winning record because everyone in Miami’s postseason rotation, save for Oladipo, shoots comfortably above 80 percent on their freebies.

Of course, an NBA team’s woes shooting from the field becomes a different ball-of-wax when they play the Hawks. As one might suspect, Miami’s 57.1 eFG% and 62.2 TS% vs. ATL are the highest against any NBA foe they’ve faced at least thrice this season.

Coach Spo will use Tyler Herro’s shot-jacking as a ruse to trick Trae and the Hawks into trying to out-heat the heat at their own game, while playing at their desired tempo. Atlanta, now with Murray in the mix, gives themselves a puncher’s chance today if defenders deny and deflect passes, and scramble when beat off the dribble rather than relying on help, producing rushed and contested shots, all without fouling.

The Hawks can be the ones throwing haymakers if the bigs (small forwards like Hunter included) secure defensive rebounds and bolt in transition, and if the guards push the ball out of the backcourt quickly to create quick-strike finishing plays for Capela, John Collins, Okongwu and Jalen Johnson around the rim. The aim is to keep Bam Adebayo on his toes and disallow Butler from roving Atlanta’s perimeter threats, including Bogi Bogdanovic and postseason newcomers Saddiq Bey and AJ Griffin, exclusively.

That’s about the best scenario I can drum up. Because, consistent with this silly season, we have no idea whether Atlanta will bring their A-Game, tonight, and sustain it for meaningful stretches. It is not about if they can, but if they will.

If they do so, then it will be all about Miami’s willingness to make adjustments, or simply settle for whichever of Chicago or Toronto swings by The Big K.C. on Friday while the Bucks look on. Given the heat have the most losses against sub-.500 teams (14, one more than ATL) of anybody in the NBA East still playing, Miami would probably pull for Toronto tomorrow if they have to.

If the Hawks don’t bring their A-Game? Well then, we will just Kuh-SEE-y’all back here in a few days!

 

Let’s Go Hawks!

~lw3

[lethalweapon3]

No Hawks on the Boo-Boo List, and heading into soggy but 75-plus degree temps hopefully means no Non-COVID illnesses will prop up.

Max Strus (Probable) will still be an issue despite a hyperextended finger on his shooting hand. Kyle Lowry has not yet been upgraded from Questionable with his sore knee, but Gabe Vincent has been the every day starter since February. We will be spared the wrath of Nikola Jovic, the rookie who's Out with back spasms.

~lw3

[ShooterSays]

2 minutes ago, lethalweapon3 said:

Kyle Lowry has not yet been upgraded from Questionable with his sore knee

Hopefully we're spared from having to suffer through watching him flop around.

[AHF]

1 minute ago, ShooterSays said:

Hopefully we're spared from having to suffer through watching him flop around.

I'd rather watch him flop than hurling himself at Trae's knees trying to injure him.

[ShooterSays]

Just now, AHF said:

I'd rather watch him flop than hurling himself at Trae's knees trying to injure him.

Man, 100%. He's up there with Dellavedova for players I can't stand.

[Diesel]

The Fix is in...  Just saw the reffing assignments...

 

Atlanta @ Miami

John Goble (#10)

Sean Wright (#4)

JB DeRosa (#22)

Aaron Smith (#51)

 

Goble attended FL international.  He went to high school and grew up in Miami. 

We know Sean Wright's handy work.

Sad part is that Wright lives in GA, right outside of Lawrenceville. 

Why does it always have to be an uphill battle?

 

[shakes]

well, the entire season has come down to this one game.   Last year this team was thoroughly embarrassed and emasculated by the Heat in the playoffs, especially Trae.    We spent teh whole summer talking about what this team and Trae needed to do in order to not let that happen again.    we've had a whole season to see the progress and even the biggest homer here (KG2Spud) would have a hard time saying that the progress has been good.

The Front office brought in Murray as a counter to Miami's half court trap.    Soft players like Huerter and Gallo were sent packing. Tougher players like Bey and uh, well, that's all we got, were brought in.

 

Tonight is the final exam to a year's worth a quizzes.  This entire year will be a success or failure based on this one game tonight.  Trae's entire year will be based on this one game.  In a season where his play clearly regressed can he make up for all of it by showing that he learned anything from last year?

 

 

[Diesel]

Goble

 

We have a horrible record... they have a great record with Goble.   The fouls called is even but the opponents fouls called is in Miami's favor. 

 

[AtLaS]

Going to be a tough game, it's on the road and Miami is the Hawks worst matchup in the league.  I love it.

If we somehow beat them in this game (and Trae plays well) it's a huge monkey off our back, we might go and beat Boston.  If Trae can get back to 2021 confidence level we can beat anyone.  

This is where you find out what you got on the squad.  

Very excited to see what Murray brings also, this is his first real chance at a game like this.  He only played spot playoff minutes like 6 years ago for SAS.

[Diesel]

Quin should have these guys raring to go.   It shouldn't take much motivation.. but Quin should be like Mick...

Quin to Trae...

 

[MaceCase]

I've lit 5 candles already, 95 to go, so that Trae may exorcise his South Beach demon.

[djjob23]

48 minutes ago, Diesel said:

The Fix is in...  Just saw the reffing assignments...

 

Atlanta @ Miami

John Goble (#10)

Sean Wright (#4)

JB DeRosa (#22)

Aaron Smith (#51)

 

Goble attended FL international.  He went to high school and grew up in Miami. 

We know Sean Wright's handy work.

Sad part is that Wright lives in GA, right outside of Lawrenceville. 

Why does it always have to be an uphill battle?

 

Another uphill battle indeed. Based on the assigned refs, I have the Hawks at a 39% chance to win. Expecting the refs to allow Miami to play much more physical (lots of no calls) and touch fouls for us if we are playing well.

 

GO HAWKS!!!

[Diesel]

Goble is from Miami and Miami has a 54% winning percentage when he refs...

Uphill battle.

We have to keep our heads and whip that trick!!

[Hawkmoor]

This is the most important game so far of the Ressler ownership era. A lot of perceptions of the Hawks are gonna come out of this game. The Hawks themselves might downplay it but its a very important game to the team, front office and fanbase.

[Diesel]

13 minutes ago, Hawkmoor said:

This is the most important game so far of the Ressler ownership era. A lot of perceptions of the Hawks are gonna come out of this game. The Hawks themselves might downplay it but its a very important game to the team, front office and fanbase.

It's the most uphill we have faced...

In Miami, against the Heat and the refs, while Trae is on trial.  A year after being whipped up by the same team and dirty tactics...

We MUST SUCCEED.

 

[JayBirdHawk]

 

 

[AHF]

39 minutes ago, Hawkmoor said:

This is the most important game so far of the Ressler ownership era. A lot of perceptions of the Hawks are gonna come out of this game. The Hawks themselves might downplay it but its a very important game to the team, front office and fanbase.

Nowhere near as important as that Game 7 win over Philly.

We understandably take it very seriously as fans coming off a bad loss to Miami last year but all that is at issue is whether we get the #7 seed.  If we lose, we can still make the playoffs the next game.  In either case, we are likely to lose the first round series at this point.  So I definitely don't think it is the most important game under Ressler's watch even though it would feel really good to win this one.  If we win it and then get swept in the first round, no one will care about this game two weeks after we played it.  If we lose it and then win in the first round, very few people will really care about it either.  

[JayBirdHawk]

After the roller coaster ride this season, I don't see this as our most important game. Regardless of what happens - changes are coming this offseason.

[JayBirdHawk]

It will be interesting to see how flexible Quin will be with his PF/C rotations:

Bey/Hunter/JJ/JC/CC/OO - particularly since Miami plays small at PF.

[givemesome1ce1]

Tony Ressler is one of the most reactionary owners in the entire league so a lot is riding on this one game. Entire team could be traded. The fanbase wants Trae to just have one good game against Miami after being terrible there for years, and the media coverage for the Hawks the past few days have been brutal. This is the lowest the fanbase has been on the Hawks in years.  A loss can be devastating. A win can be everything for this team and fanbase’s morale. God I hope we win.