The Tank Thread

[bleachkit]

7 minutes ago, Final_quest said:

Tanking is never a guarantee, but it gives you a chance to land a Trae Young level talent.  

Additionally, I have a bizarre fascination with a mind that can turn literally every thread and every comment into a discussion on how tanking will never work.  Can't locate the quote but it goes something like this, "Many arguments are won by the sheer velocity and volume of words."  A tireless effort that ultimately failed in this case.  

Well you know it's a double edge. You need to be bad to get top 5 picks. But at some point you have to start winning or bad habits and poor expectations start to form. I think we timed it just about perfectly, assuming we continue to win going forward. 

[thecampster]

Lets try to remember I was more on KB's side during this debate than the mob's. 

My position was that the contracts we were taking on for picks could have just as easily been spent on quality free agents. We had varying opinions on rebuild vs reload but neither of us wanted to lose on purpose. I just put a shinier hat on the subject.

 

In the end, we got tired of the losing and did spend that free agent money to rebuild. This run isn't happening without BB, Gallo, Rondo (into Williams), Snell. Its easy to point at the successful picks and forget that Cam really isn't contributing to this run and Hunter barely contributed (neither of their fault).

If I had it to do all over again, I would have preferred to sign vets, win some games, trade one of those vets and our low non-lottery picks for 5 or 6 and move up to take Trae. I hate losing, really hate losing on purpose and just because we struck gold on Trae, doesn't mean it works for everyone. Huerter, Collins were big parts of this run and were 19 picks. That's low to mid level playoff team level.

One thing KB and I were very much in agreement on is that you spend money on scouting and scouting philosophy. Having the right scouting team is more important than high picks. That was proven with the rise of Huerter/Collins.

 

You might want to lay off the good doctor.

 

[sturt]

A rare but interesting bit of archeology here.

 

[AHF]

1 hour ago, thecampster said:

If I had it to do all over again, I would have preferred to sign vets, win some games, trade one of those vets and our low non-lottery picks for 5 or 6 and move up to take Trae.

 

Good luck getting any high lottery team to take that deal.  Do you think we would have turned around and given the pick we used on Trae to take Tim Hardaway Jr and the 11th pick or something?

Do you think Toronto is trading their pick this year for Dramond Green and the 14th pick from GS?  Maybe Houston giving up their pick for DeMar Derozan and the 12th pick from SA?

Those are trades with 3x and 4x All-Stars combined with actual lottery picks and no rebuilding team would do those deals.  Our offer of one of our vets and a non-lottery pick would get a big  from a team that had the chance to draft a talent like Trae Young.

[bleachkit]

17 minutes ago, AHF said:

Good luck getting any high lottery team to take that deal.  Do you think we would have turned around and given the pick we used on Trae to take Tim Hardaway Jr and the 11th pick or something?

Do you think Toronto is trading their pick this year for Dramond Green and the 14th pick from GS?  Maybe Houston giving up their pick for DeMar Derozan and the 12th pick from SA?

Those are trades with 3x and 4x All-Stars combined with actual lottery picks and no rebuilding team would do those deals.  Our offer of one of our vets and a non-lottery pick would get a big  from a team that had the chance to draft a talent like Trae Young.

Picks at the top generally have a lot of value. Teams hardly ever trade them for veteran players anymore. If they make a trade like there is always protections on the pick. After the Nets fiasco, unprotected picks are not nearly as common.

[AHF]

18 hours ago, bleachkit said:

Picks at the top generally have a lot of value. Teams hardly ever trade them for veteran players anymore. If they make a trade like there is always protections on the pick. After the Nets fiasco, unprotected picks are not nearly as common.

You can see a team that is trying to contend maybe doing it for a difference maker but (a) do we really think we are going to sign a difference maker as a FA?  and (b) how many contending teams get top 5 picks and then decide to flip them for vets?   The Spurs had that chance and chose to keep Tim Duncan.  I can think of teams that traded future picks but not many that traded a pick in that year's draft.

I think a plan to get high lottery picks by signing vets and then trading them to teams (that frequently had the cap room to sign the vet in the first place and passed) along with a non-lottery pick is a non-starter.

[High5]

KB and anyone who agreed with him on this subject were emphatically proven wrong. Period. That’s fine. We can all move forward thrilled as Hawks fans. But stop trying to change what was said.

[AHF]

22 hours ago, thecampster said:

 

You might want to lay off the good doctor.

 

 

1 hour ago, High5 said:

KB and anyone who agreed with him on this subject were emphatically proven wrong. Period. That’s fine. We can all move forward thrilled as Hawks fans. But stop trying to change what was said.

One thing I will call out is that I wasn't looking to bash KB here.  A lot of people had different views on this to one degree or another.  I just felt like this was a very long, very significant thread about how we chose to rebuild the team and that we have seen pretty clearly why TS chose to go this route over the Houston-compete-and-retool model or the LA clear-cap-space-and-add-a-superstar model.  

I was going to add the "tanking works" picture to the end of my post as kind of tongue in cheek but since I won the bet with KB I felt like I should get the most out of it by putting the picture of him wearing the avatar (knowing he doesn't endorse tanking).  (In some ways referencing that bet is appropriate as it was really a bet over whether the team was doomed to be a bottom-dweller this year as a result of tanking.)

But if my necromancy post was read as a direct shot at KB, I'd like to clarify that it wasn't intended that way and I'm happy to see him back on the site enjoying this team's historic playoff run.   This is a good time to be a Hawks fan and I think a big part of the reason that is the case is because of the plan that Ressler and TS adopted and the job that TS did executing it.

[thecampster]

13 minutes ago, AHF said:

 

One thing I will call out is that I wasn't looking to bash KB here.  A lot of people had different views on this to one degree or another.  I just felt like this was a very long, very significant thread about how we chose to rebuild the team and that we have seen pretty clearly why TS chose to go this route over the Houston-compete-and-retool model or the LA clear-cap-space-and-add-a-superstar model.  

I was going to add the "tanking works" picture to the end of my post as kind of tongue in cheek but since I won the bet with KB I felt like I should get the most out of it by putting the picture of him wearing the avatar (knowing he doesn't endorse tanking).  (In some ways referencing that bet is appropriate as it was really a bet over whether the team was doomed to be a bottom-dweller this year as a result of tanking.)

But if my necromancy post was read as a direct shot at KB, I'd like to clarify that it wasn't intended that way and I'm happy to see him back on the site enjoying this team's historic playoff run.   This is a good time to be a Hawks fan and I think a big part of the reason that is the case is because of the plan that Ressler and TS adopted and the job that TS did executing it.

Actually I was addressing those piling on....You won the right to post that a while ago.

[thecampster]

1 hour ago, High5 said:

KB and anyone who agreed with him on this subject were emphatically proven wrong. Period. That’s fine. We can all move forward thrilled as Hawks fans. But stop trying to change what was said.

Tell that to Detroit, Cleveland and in a few years Houston.

We could have just as easily ended up with Bagley, Bamba and been watching reruns of South Park right now.

Edited June 25, 2021 by thecampster

[Gray Mule]

Big city teams attract all stars like honey attracts bees.  Atlanta doesn't.  Tanking works - Sometimes - If you're lucky.  It worked for the Hawks.  Check out our draft picks.  Not a terribly bad player here.  And, at just the right time, the Hawks dipped into the free agent market.  This and a couple of trades.

Scouting!  Knowing who is out there. Draft pick, free agent or possible trade.  This is where a team of scouts earn their money.  Seems we have some good ones!

So many things must add up to get to success.  I like our math so far!

 

 

 

 

 

[JeffS17]

This thread is fascinating as I wasn't here 2-3 years ago.  My feelings on tanking were always somewhat neutral... sometimes it pans out, sometimes not.  I think it only works out if you have a competent front office, but then again you can also rebuild through middle of the pack first rounders and FAs/trades if you have a strong front office.  No denying Schlenk has done a really great job building this team around Trae, and I think the most underrated part of his draft picks and FA signings are personality.  Everyone on this team has a good attitude and seems to be motivated to improve and work together.  Nate is a huge part of that as well.

[kg01]

4 minutes ago, thecampster said:

Tell that to Detroit, Cleveland and in a few years Houston.

We could have just as easily ended up with Bagley, Bamba and been watching reruns of South Park right now.

You're not wrong here.  Although I don't think we should ignore that tanking is why we're in the position we're in, we should also recognize we got lucky.

Shiiii, I read some Cavaliers posters still touting Sexton over Trae.  How'd you like to be drunk off that kind of kool-aid for no other reason than you have to be just because that's who your organization drafted.

Yikes.

And, on an unrelated note, if @Spud2nique tries to tell you I called for the Hawks to draft Sexton, just don't ask me what it was.   Just don't ask me what it was ....

[thecampster]

Let me rephrase this.  I've been involved with a Youtuber recently who is starting/running a channel on sports betting. We started talking Hawks a bit ago and now email after every game. He hasn't followed the Hawks' rise and is baffled by this turnaround and keeps using season stats to justify his wagering positions. So I dropped this knowledge on him.

Over the first 34 games of this season, Bogdanovic missed 1/2. In the games he did play, he only scored 20 points 1 time all the way up to March 18. So over the first 40 games of the year, BB scored 20 once and less than 10, 10 times.  He played in 29 of the next 32 games and scored 20 in 19 of those games and only scored less than 10 once. 

We aren't the 5th seed because we tanked. We aren't where we are because we're great at drafting. We're where we are because we traded for damaged goods in Capela and waited on him to get healthy, Gallo played out of his mind at times this year, Snell hit timely 3's when we needed him, Williams came here and and showed out and BB got over Covid and injuries. We spent money on quality vets that filled specific needs. Without that, we'd just be a team with a bunch of 1st contract players.

 

Edited June 25, 2021 by thecampster

[High5]

8 minutes ago, thecampster said:

Tell that to Detroit, Cleveland and in a few years Houston.

We could have just as easily ended up with Bagley, Bamba and been watching reruns of South Park right now.

OK? But instead we used our picks and cap space to put together a young team that is 3 wins away from a Finals appearance. No route is without risks, but people who were adamant that tanking wouldn’t work have obviously been proven wrong. 

[AHF]

25 minutes ago, thecampster said:

Tell that to Detroit, Cleveland and in a few years Houston.

We could have just as easily ended up with Bagley, Bamba and been watching reruns of South Park right now.

Let me quibble a bit with this.  It is absolutely in the wide range of outcomes that a team building in the draft can have to fail your rebuild or succeed in it.  Nothing is guaranteed to anyone.

But there isn't an equal chance for all participants.  That is like saying everyone has an equal chance to hit a 3pt shot in a game.  If you have a GM like Pete Babcock or Billy King or Vlade Divac, etc. you are probably doomed to failure if you hand them a bunch of lottery picks just like you are doomed to failure if you are counting on Ben Simmons or Josh Smith to win you games with their 3pt shot.   They may hit a few but they will sink you because they can't make good things happen consistently on those plays.

If you give a GM like Jerry West, Sam Presti or Travis Schlenk a bevy of lottery picks they are going to miss some because even Kyle Korver, Reggie Miller and Larry Bird missed more 3's than they took but they are going to hit at a higher rate and the chances of your franchise being successful are way higher than many other teams.

Part of it is luck but a big part is also how you execute that plan.  Frankly, that isn't so much different than free agency and cap management (some GM's just do a much better job at this than others and their teams benefit or suffer for it).

It isn't a level playing field where teams just roll the dice and see who gets lucky.  It is a skill and having the right GM in place is critical.

[Gray Mule]

Question:  Do any of you know a team that has a great scouting department that is a failure, season after season?  Sure.  I know.  It's all a crap shoot.  But, I gotta believe that, the more knowledge you have, the better are your chances of success.

I don't know the name of even one of the scouts.  But, whoever they are, I admire their work.

[AHF]

3 minutes ago, thecampster said:

Let me rephrase this.  I've been involved with a Youtuber recently who is starting/running a channel on sports betting. We started talking Hawks a bit ago and now email after every game. He hasn't followed the Hawks' rise and is baffled by this turnaround and keeps using season stats to justify his wagering positions. So I dropped this knowledge on him.

Over the first 34 games of this season, Bogdanovic missed 1/2. In the games he did play, he only scored 20 points 1 time all the way up to March 18. So over the first 40 games of the year, BB scored 20 once and less than 10, 10 times.  He played in 29 of the next 32 games and scored 20 in 19 of those games and only scored less than 10 once. 

We aren't the 5th seed because we tanked. We aren't where we are because we're great at drafting. We're where we are because we traded for damaged goods in Capela and waited on him to get healthy, Gallo played out of his mind at times this year, Snell hit timely 3's when we needed him, Williams came here and and showed out and BB got over Covid and injuries. We spent money on quality vets that filled specific needs. Without that, we'd just be a team with a bunch of 1st contract players.

 

We got three things from tanking that bear on your statement:

1. We got stud young players through the draft by tanking. Stud players we drafted like Trae, JC, Huerter, etc. without whom we would not be here.  No "sign vet free agents" plan would have us in the ECF.
2. We had the cap space and draft assets to add big players by trade through tanking.   We got a stockpile of picks that weren't just useful for drafting players.  They can also be traded.  We traded one for Capela and he has been huge.  We could absorb his salary without any problem due to the low payroll that comes with tanking and we had the draft assets to outbid other teams when he came available for trade.
3. We had the cap space to sign big free agents through tanking.  We had a ton of money to spend on quality vets and didn't need any of them to be our best player.  That is part of the plan with tanking.  You free up a ton of cap room in a way you don't by signing free agents.  When we started down this path, we would have been way over the cap just resigning our free agents (including THJr and Millsap) and even then we were lucky to be in the playoffs with the talent we had (we outperformed predictive metrics by winning more than our share of close games).  That isn't a bug; it is a feature of tanking.  Philly did the same thing when they added Harris (trade with room to add his huge salary ala Capela), Redick (signed for $23M due to the plentiful cap space), etc.  

[sturt]

13 minutes ago, AHF said:

If you have a GM like Pete Babcock or Billy King or Vlade Divac, etc. you are probably doomed to failure if you hand them a bunch of lottery picks just like you are doomed to failure if you are counting on Ben Simmons or Josh Smith to win you games with their 3pt shot.   They may hit a few but they will sink you because they can't make good things happen consistently on those plays.

If you give a GM like Jerry West, Sam Presti or Travis Schlenk a bevy of lottery picks they are going to miss some because even Kyle Korver, Reggie Miller and Larry Bird missed more 3's than they took but they are going to hit at a higher rate and the chances of your franchise being successful are way higher than many other teams.

Part of it is luck but a big part is also how you execute that plan.

[RedDawg#8]

Travis and the front office did the right thing, and they did it the right way.

They were organized, intentional, and financially prepared.

Would not have it any other way.