Official Playoff Game Thread: Celtics at Hawks -- GAME 6 (8:30 PM Tip!)

[Peoriabird]

1 minute ago, kg01 said:

Are we suggesting teams defend both units the same way? 

They are capable of moving the ball, I've see it, You've seen it especially in the 1st 3 quarters of most games...Then something changes late...I think you know what I'm talking about at least I hope so.

[shakes]

15 minutes ago, Peoriabird said:

Effective field goal percentage @AHF...We know he can shoot free throw but he can't shoot jumpers!

Trae was -...The bench was +  What you are saying makes no sense

GTFO with +/- nonsense.  We're real basketball fans, not dummies who fall for nonsense stats.

[Peoriabird]

Just now, shakes said:

GTFO with +/- nonsense.  We're real basketball fans, not dummies who fall for nonsense stats.

Whatever if you think the Hawks can win games depending on Trae hitting difficult shots...Forgive me for engaging

[AHF]

Where I think Peo and I agree is that I want to see an offense from Quin next year that significantly reduces the amount of isolation possessions by anyone on the team and increased off ball movement, screening and other activity designed to generate high quality shot opportunities.  I think this should go hand in hand with personnel moves.  For example, if Clint is traded that dramatically changes spacing and potential action on the offensive end of the floor and leaves a hole to be filled on the defensive side (particularly in matchups against larger centers).  

I think this is one of the most important offseasons we've ever had as a franchise.  

[JeffS17]

33 minutes ago, sturt said:

I'm thinking Clint's the most vulnerable piece. And I know I'm not alone in that thinking.

 

8 hours ago, JeffS17 said:

I get the feeling if we make any moves, it will be Capela + pieces going out for someone like Ayton -- just my gut.

You are not alone.  OO has looked really nice lately, and I think he can be ready to play minutes at the 5 and minutes at the 4 next year, depending on the moves we make.  The entire front court rotation feels at risk imo, including JJ if we make a big move and the trade partner wants a promising player

[bleachkit]

12 minutes ago, AHF said:

First, let's stipulate that this is the worst shooting season he has had in 4 years.  Second, he literally isn't the worst shooter even this season.  He doesn't have the lowest FG%, he doesn't have the lowest 3pt%, and he doesn't have the lowest ft%.  In terms of overall scoring efficiency, he ranks 10th just above Hunter and just behind AJ.

Last year he was obviously much higher:

The proof will be in the pudding when we see what Quin does.  If he takes your advice and never lets Trae shoot because he is "literally the worst shooter on the team" then I'll eat my hat.  I'd say we should do a bet on that but we both know you won't pay up when you lose.

Shooting efficiency isn't everything. But it is important. If Trae can't get his shooting back on track, then Quin will have to start limiting his shots for the better of the team. Going 9/28 from the field isn't winning basketball, it's just not. Trae even making half his shots is a rarity for him. I fail to understand the board's unwavering, indefatigably belief in him. 

[JeffS17]

1 minute ago, AHF said:

Where I think Peo and I agree is that I want to see an offense from Quin next year that significantly reduces the amount of isolation possessions by anyone on the team and increased off ball movement, screening and other activity designed to generate high quality shot opportunities.  I think this should go hand in hand with personnel moves.  For example, if Clint is traded that dramatically changes spacing and potential action on the offensive end of the floor and leaves a hole to be filled on the defensive side (particularly in matchups against larger centers).  

I think this is one of the most important offseasons we've ever had as a franchise.  

I agree, particularly with our core aging into their first post-rookie contracts, and with the looming Murray free agency.  Hunter starts getting paid next year ($20M), and Bogi is at $19M, Capela at $21M, JC $25M, and then Murray is still getting paid $18M.  I think it's unlikely we trade Bogi, but some combination of the other 4 feels likely if we can land a big fish.  What also makes this offseason important is the NEXT offseason we have to pay OO and Murray (assuming we want to keep the guy we traded a bunch of picks for).

[AHF]

6 minutes ago, bleachkit said:

Shooting efficiency isn't everything. But it is important. If Trae can't get his shooting back on track, then Quin will have to start limiting his shots for the better of the team. Going 9/28 from the field isn't winning basketball, it's just not. Trae even making half his shots is a rarity for him. I fail to understand the board's unwavering, indefatigably belief in him. 

No doubt.  Trae's shooting efficiency is almost solely responsible for the down year he has had this year.  His playmaking and ball management has been on par with expectations but his scoring efficiency has suffered tremendously.  A repeat of 2022-23 won't cut it.  The fall has been dramatic and impactful for us in a bad way.

(If you prefer efg%, he went from .536% EFG% last year to .485% this year.  That is pretty terrible.)

There is no sugar coating it.  It has to improve.

[Peoriabird]

15 minutes ago, AHF said:

Where I think Peo and I agree is that I want to see an offense from Quin next year that significantly reduces the amount of isolation possessions by anyone on the team and increased off ball movement, screening and other activity designed to generate high quality shot opportunities.  I think this should go hand in hand with personnel moves.  For example, if Clint is traded that dramatically changes spacing and potential action on the offensive end of the floor and leaves a hole to be filled on the defensive side (particularly in matchups against larger centers).  

I think this is one of the most important offseasons we've ever had as a franchise.  

Where do we disagree?

[kg01]

23 minutes ago, Peoriabird said:

They are capable of moving the ball, I've see it, You've seen it especially in the 1st 3 quarters of most games...Then something changes late...I think you know what I'm talking about at least I hope so.

You're speaking as if the only ones seeing that are Hawks fans and players.  Guess what?  The opponent sees it too.  What do you think they do about it, particularly late in games? 

[AHF]

6 minutes ago, Peoriabird said:

Where do we disagree?

For one, you contend that Trae is literally the worst shooter on the team.  

I also think Quin will continue to feature Trae in a highly significant scoring role next year whereas your comments suggest you think he should not (but perhaps I misunderstand that).

[Peoriabird]

1 minute ago, kg01 said:

You're speaking as if the only ones seeing that are Hawks fans and players.  Guess what?  The opponent sees it too.  What do you think they do about it, particularly late in games? 

I want to hear this one...please elaborate.

[JeffS17]

3 minutes ago, bleachkit said:

Shooting efficiency isn't everything. But it is important. If Trae can't get his shooting back on track, then Quin will have to start limiting his shots for the better of the team. Going 9/28 from the field isn't winning basketball, it's just not. Trae even making half his shots is a rarity for him. I fail to understand the board's unwavering, indefatigably belief in him. 

100%.  We need better offensive pieces around him that helps also open his game up.  We also need Trae to trust Quin and I trust that Quin will put in place an offense that does not rely on Trae taking 25+ shots a game.  Trae had the worst shooting by EFG% and TS% for the team this playoffs, taking 25 shots per game, so it's not an unreasonable critique that he could take fewer shots.  In theory, we should have lived and died on Hunter/Collins this series, but unfortunately for us those guys can't handle the rock and if either has the ball for more than 5 seconds, it's probably a turnover.

[AHF]

1 minute ago, JeffS17 said:

 In theory, we should have lived and died on Hunter/Collins this series, but unfortunately for us those guys can't handle the rock and if either has the ball for more than 5 seconds, it's probably a turnover.

And CC is definitely a worse option than either of them.  

Bogi stands out as the guy who really should have had more possessions.  AJ is the guy who didn't have a chance to impact the offense who could have been significant.  I remain very high on him.  

[REHawksFan]

4 minutes ago, AHF said:

No doubt.  Trae's shooting efficiency is almost solely responsible for the down year he has had this year.  His playmaking and ball management has been on par with expectations but his scoring efficiency has suffered tremendously.  A repeat of 2022-23 won't cut it.  The fall has been dramatic and impactful for us in a bad way.

(If you prefer efg%, he went from .536% EFG% last year to .485% this year.  That is pretty terrible.)

There is no sugar coating it.  It has to improve.

I think where some of us miss each other in these "debates / arguments" is that the answer is not just "Trae needs to shoot less."  The answer is Trae needs better shot selection in general but more specifically, he needs to not force it as a matter of habit.  There's a time and place and as with everything else, it's nuanced.  There are certainly situations where your best player needs to force the issue and carry the team.  If that means taking some bad shots (because he is absolutely capable of hitting them), then so be it.  But it can't CANNOT be a habit in every situation.  That's where Quin becomes super important in the development of Trae, imo.  

I agree with putting in a system that generates quality looks for everyone.  I'm not sure anyone would disagree with that philosophy.  But a lot of times our arguments break down because one side screams "Trae needs to shoot less because he's never going to be an efficient scorer" while the other side screams "he needs to be the superstar that he is and make the plays."  What is implied in that statement, at least from my view, is that Trae needs to be more efficient while not diminishing his shot taking.  I'm not talking about 30 shots a game.  That's too many in most circumstances.  But last year he avg 20.3 FGA and had a 60.1% TS% and a 53.6% eFG%.  This year he avg 19.0 FGA and had a 57.3% TS% and a 48.5% eFG%. That's rookie year bad.  But last year was fine, imo.  He CAN be more efficient on high volume.  And I don't think there's any getting around his volume.  He's going to take shots.  The key is to get him to take quality shots.  

[Peoriabird]

Just now, AHF said:

For one, you contend that Trae is literally the worst shooter on the team.  

I also think Quin will continue to feature Trae in a highly significant scoring role next year whereas your comments suggest you think he should not (but perhaps I misunderstand that).

AHF...You have to understand that I'm not advocating Trae to stop shooting ...I've said on numerous occasion that he has to make better decisions...You follow so far?  What that entails is not taking shot that have a low percentage chance of going in instead look for better options.  I hope I haven't lost you yet.  Better options include players who know where they are most effective on the floor otherwise they don't take the shots unlike Trae who thinks he can make any shot at an acceptable rate.  But if you still don't understand, please ask more questions.

[AHF]

Does anyone have the numbers to look at how defended Trae was on his shots in 2021-22 and 2022-23?  I am thinking of the stats that show how close the nearest defender was to him on different shots.  I'd love to see that because my guess is his bad shooting was a combination of simple bad shooting on  his part and less effective floor spacing.  I.e., he probably took a higher % of shots more heavily guarded without Gallo and Huerter spreading the floor (which would lead to lower fg% even if his shooting was unchanged) and I suspect that he also shot a lower % on shots in the same circumstance.

[Peoriabird]

7 minutes ago, JeffS17 said:

We need better offensive pieces around him that helps also open his game up.

What better pieces are going to stop Trae from pulling up with 20 seconds left on the shot clock from the logo???

[Peoriabird]

2 minutes ago, AHF said:

Does anyone have the numbers to look at how defended Trae was on his shots in 2021-22 and 2022-23?  I am thinking of the stats that show how close the nearest defender was to him on different shots.  I'd love to see that because my guess is his bad shooting was a combination of simple bad shooting on  his part and less effective floor spacing.  I.e., he probably took a higher % of shots more heavily guarded without Gallo and Huerter spreading the floor (which would lead to lower fg% even if his shooting was unchanged) and I suspect that he also shot a lower % on shots in the same circumstance.

Simple solution...stop taking those particular shots then

[JeffS17]

1 minute ago, REHawksFan said:

I think where some of us miss each other in these "debates / arguments" is that the answer is not just "Trae needs to shoot less."  The answer is Trae needs better shot selection in general but more specifically, he needs to not force it as a matter of habit.  There's a time and place and as with everything else, it's nuanced.  There are certainly situations where your best player needs to force the issue and carry the team.  If that means taking some bad shots (because he is absolutely capable of hitting them), then so be it.  But it can't CANNOT be a habit in every situation.  That's where Quin becomes super important in the development of Trae, imo.  

I agree with putting in a system that generates quality looks for everyone.  I'm not sure anyone would disagree with that philosophy.  But a lot of times our arguments break down because one side screams "Trae needs to shoot less because he's never going to be an efficient scorer" while the other side screams "he needs to be the superstar that he is and make the plays."  What is implied in that statement, at least from my view, is that Trae needs to be more efficient while not diminishing his shot taking.  I'm not talking about 30 shots a game.  That's too many in most circumstances.  But last year he avg 20.3 FGA and had a 60.1% TS% and a 53.6% eFG%.  This year he avg 19.0 FGA and had a 57.3% TS% and a 48.5% eFG%. That's rookie year bad.  But last year was fine, imo.  He CAN be more efficient on high volume.  And I don't think there's any getting around his volume.  He's going to take shots.  The key is to get him to take quality shots.  

Yep, the reality is having more offensive weapons will make the team more efficient, including Trae.  Rising tide lifts all boats type of situation.  So while you still want Trae and everyone to have good shot selection, by virtue of having more weapons on the floor, he will be more efficient.  I think looking at his efficiency in a vacuum is flawed, but I also agree with others he forces really low % shots too often right now.  Regardless, I am very optimistic Quin will massage those bad habits out -- Trae seems to have a lot of respect for Quin and Quin seems to have a unique combination of BBIQ and emotional intelligence that makes for a great coach