Official Playoff Game Thread: Celtics at Hawks -- GAME 6 (8:30 PM Tip!)

[AHF]

Just now, Peoriabird said:

AHF...You have to understand that I'm not advocating Trae to stop shooting ...I've said on numerous occasion that he has to make better decisions...You follow so far?  What that entails is not taking shot that have a low percentage chance of going in instead look for better options.  I hope I haven't lost you yet.  Better options include players who know where they are most effective on the floor otherwise they don't take the shots unlike Trae who thinks he can make any shot at an acceptable rate.  But if you still don't understand, please ask more questions.

Let's follow your logic.

What that entails is not taking shot that have a low percentage chance of going in instead look for better options. 

OK so don't shoot if there is a better option.

He literally is the worst shooter on the team / Better options include players who know where they are most effective on the floor

So everyone is a better option when you are comparing the worst shooter against better shooters.

 

How does that not logically translate into Trae playing a dramatically decreased role on offense?

[Peoriabird]

7 minutes ago, REHawksFan said:

  The answer is Trae needs better shot selection in general but more specifically, he needs to not force it as a matter of habit.  There's a time and place and as with everything else, it's nuanced. 

What???  I've stated this for how many years???  Lord have mercy

[AHF]

1 minute ago, Peoriabird said:

Simple solution...stop taking those particular shots then

Do you get why I asked for that comparison?  I'm trying to get a sense for how much of his worse shooting was taking more contested shots and how much was just shooting worse.  Your comment is a non-sequitor.

[Peoriabird]

1 minute ago, AHF said:

Let's follow your logic.

What that entails is not taking shot that have a low percentage chance of going in instead look for better options. 

OK so don't shoot if there is a better option.

He literally is the worst shooter on the team / Better options include players who know where they are most effective on the floor

So everyone is a better option when you are comparing the worst shooter against better shooters.

 

How does that not logically translate into Trae playing a dramatically decreased role on offense?

He is making the pass which will be his role in the offense!!  I see this is going no where.  this should be pretty simple but i guess it ain't a simple concept to some...You just saw two players on Boston move the ball until they got great look but somehow even seeing it doesn't make it click for you. Oh Well. 

[Peoriabird]

7 minutes ago, JeffS17 said:

Yep, the reality is having more offensive weapons will make the team more efficient, including Trae.  Rising tide lifts all boats type of situation.  So while you still want Trae and everyone to have good shot selection, by virtue of having more weapons on the floor, he will be more efficient.  I think looking at his efficiency in a vacuum is flawed, but I also agree with others he forces really low % shots too often right now.  Regardless, I am very optimistic Quin will massage those bad habits out -- Trae seems to have a lot of respect for Quin and Quin seems to have a unique combination of BBIQ and emotional intelligence that makes for a great coach

So Bogi isn't an offense weapon?  If you agree he is then why is he not utilized more while on the court and I'll wait for your answer.

[kg01]

22 minutes ago, Peoriabird said:

I want to hear this one...please elaborate.

Seriously?  You don't understand that opponents play defense?  And *gasp* they change defenses at times?  Cmon, peo. 

[AHF]

5 minutes ago, Peoriabird said:

He is making the pass which will be his role in the offense!!  I see this is going no where.  this should be pretty simple but i guess it ain't a simple concept to some...You just saw two players on Boston move the ball until they got great look but somehow even seeing it doesn't make it click for you. Oh Well. 

I said a significantly reduced scoring role.  Not a reduction in playmaking role.  So the key to this discussion is understanding how big of a shift in shots you want to see happen or that you think will happen (i.e., shots that Trae isn't taking and others are taking).

Where do you see Trae in the pecking order in terms of FGA/gm under Quin next year?  I still see him at the top of the list unless we pull off some major trade that I don't expect to see.  (I think Quin comes in expecting Trae to maintain that kind of role).  Do you think he won't be the leading shot taker?

[Gray Mule]

Did you notice?  After that ex Hawk center fouled Trae by not allowing him to come down after he shot, causing Trae injury, he didn't play as well the remainder of the game.

In an interview after the game he said that coming to Boston he had learned to win.  Yep.  This is how it's done.  Take out your opponent's best player in any way possible.

Maybe it wasn't what it looked like.  We can't prove anything.  But we can guess...

[Final_quest]

5 minutes ago, bleachkit said:

Shooting efficiency isn't everything. But it is important. If Trae can't get his shooting back on track, then Quin will have to start limiting his shots for the better of the team. Going 9/28 from the field isn't winning basketball, it's just not. Trae even making half his shots is a rarity for him. I fail to understand the board's unwavering, indefatigably belief in him. 

 

He can improve on this.  Remember we had an offensive scheme created by Nate that was essentially telling Trae and DJM to go out and play ISO.  Still his TS% is on par with other high volume scorers, but definitely had a dip this year.  I think crunch time offense was a big problem this past year and it needs a complete make over. 

 

 

 

Here is Trae:

[Spud2nique]

@lethalweapon3 Hey guy, thanks for all the game thread all year long. We really are fortunate to have you setting us up for games while giving us lessons throughout it.

Hawks played tough, we will be back. This was a valuable lesson against a team that went to the finals last year and probably again this year. Onward and upward.

[TheNorthCydeRises]

1 hour ago, AHF said:

I'm not a fan of iso ball down the stretch and expect Quin to deliver a better system for us that reduces the amount of iso.  (I'm not sure there is a single team that doesn't do material iso in the 4th quarter but we should do much less of it, imo.)

That said, I definitely don't feel like Trae had great shot selection in the first half and terrible shot selection in the second half.  The bigger difference is that he missed more of them in the second half and all of them down the stretch.  I didn't like the drive on Williams late but many of his shots down that close stretch were great looks that didn't drop.

Those floaters in particular are shots we love seeing Trae take.  Some of them went in and out and others missed but those shots are not horrific drives into multiple defenders or anything.  When you see multiple defenders around him it is usually because he had shaken his defender and someone else was scrambling to try to come in to challenge the shot.

 

I would say it's the opposite.  I thought his shot selection, while not bad, was worse in the 2nd half than in the 1st.  He made an effort in that 3rd quarter to not only get his teammates involved more, but to limit some of the quick shots he was talking.  Those shots were falling in the 1st half, but nothing fell in the 2nd half.  He also only had 1 turnover in the 2nd half, until the one at the very end.

And as you noted, almost all of the shots except the drive on Williams, were open and makeable looks.  The three he took off of the tip pass with the shot clock running out, went around the rim and out.

His 1st half shots were a lot wilder, but he was making them.

[REHawksFan]

20 minutes ago, AHF said:

Does anyone have the numbers to look at how defended Trae was on his shots in 2021-22 and 2022-23?  I am thinking of the stats that show how close the nearest defender was to him on different shots.  I'd love to see that because my guess is his bad shooting was a combination of simple bad shooting on  his part and less effective floor spacing.  I.e., he probably took a higher % of shots more heavily guarded without Gallo and Huerter spreading the floor (which would lead to lower fg% even if his shooting was unchanged) and I suspect that he also shot a lower % on shots in the same circumstance.

Here's what I get from NBA.com....

 

 

So last year (1,005 total shots):  1.3% FGA (0-2 feet) / 16.5% (2-4 feet) / 41.9% (4-6 feet) / 40.3% (6+ feet)

This year (837 total shots):  2.2% FGA (0-2 feet) / 20.2% (2-4 feet) / 39.4% (4-6 feet) / 38.2% (6+ feet)

Observations:

• Total shots were down this year which makes since given Murray taking more than Huerter
• Significant increase in closely guarded shot attempts this year
• Decrease in open shots and wide open shots
• Significant decrease in make % on Tight, Open, and Wide Open shots this year

Some of this may just be variance for shooters in general.  Some may be attributed to roster construction without a ton of spacing.  Some may be attributed to taking fewer shots overall which, history suggests, is a losing proposition for Trae.  

[AHF]

2 minutes ago, TheNorthCydeRises said:

 

I would say it's the opposite.  I thought his shot selection, while not bad, was worse in the 2nd half than in the 1st.  He made an effort in that 3rd quarter to not only get his teammates involved more, but to limit some of the quick shots he was talking.  Those shots were falling in the 1st half, but nothing fell in the 2nd half.  He also only had 1 turnover in the 2nd half, until the one at the very end.

And as you noted, almost all of the shots except the drive on Williams, were open and makeable looks.  The three he took off of the tip pass with the shot clock running out, went around the rim and out.

His 1st half shots were a lot wilder, but he was making them.

@TheNorthCydeRises - Is this supposed to read "was worse in the 1st half than in the 2nd"?

[TheNorthCydeRises]

1 hour ago, AHF said:

First, let's stipulate that this is the worst shooting season he has had in 4 years.  Second, he literally isn't the worst shooter even this season.  He doesn't have the lowest FG%, he doesn't have the lowest 3pt%, and he doesn't have the lowest ft%.  In terms of overall scoring efficiency, he ranks 10th just above Hunter and just behind AJ.

Last year he was obviously much higher:

The proof will be in the pudding when we see what Quin does.  If he takes your advice and never lets Trae shoot because he is "literally the worst shooter on the team" then I'll eat my hat.  I'd say we should do a bet on that but we both know you won't pay up when you lose.

 

He doesn't believe in TS% because a lot of fans discount free throw attempts.  And guys who may shoot a higher FG% than Trae, will impact the game less because they don't play aggressive enough to draw fouls.

[JeffS17]

9 minutes ago, Peoriabird said:

So Bogi isn't an offense weapon?  If you agree he is then why is he not utilized more while on the court and I'll wait for your answer.

I'll give you an actual answer even though I suspect you barely read people arguments.

Yes, Bogi is an offensive weapon.  He also rarely gets open because our spacing is terrible -- the Celtics were able to stick to him like glue because CC cannot space the floor (understatement), OO cannot space the floor, and Murray/JC are not highly respected 3P threats.  So when Bogi is on the floor, there is a perimeter defender glued to him.  And Bogi doesn't have a quick enough first step to take advantage of the tight defense.  Also, while JC might be able to shoot threes, that is only one component of spacing the floor -- if you have no dribble/drive game, defenders have the freedom to play you however they want -- tight defense, sag off and close out, help in the paint when you're on the weakside and trust rotations, etc. 

Right now, we have two players who have the ability to shoot 3s, dribble, and facilitate.  Dre has a decent pump fake/drive game, but his tunnel vision is so bad it's very easy for the defense to collapse on him.  As the Hawks are currently constructed, the defenses rarely have to make hard decisions and have freedom how they guard some of our guys.  Compare that to the Celtics where your center led the league in 3P%, you have 3-4 guys who can take their man off the dribble, and two elite shotmakers/finishers at the rim.  The game looked like a layup line because our defense has to pick how we want to get exploited -- layup line or open three.  Replace Marcus Smart with Trae and I promise his efficiency would sky rocket.  The makeup of that roster is near-perfect for modern basketball, and if we can get closer to that, Trae's efficiency will inevitably rise.  If that doesn't make sense to you and you want to have a good faith conversation, happy to share more perspective. 

[AHF]

2 minutes ago, REHawksFan said:

Here's what I get from NBA.com....

 

 

So last year (1,005 total shots):  1.3% FGA (0-2 feet) / 16.5% (2-4 feet) / 41.9% (4-6 feet) / 40.3% (6+ feet)

This year (837 total shots):  2.2% FGA (0-2 feet) / 20.2% (2-4 feet) / 39.4% (4-6 feet) / 38.2% (6+ feet)

Observations:

• Total shots were down this year which makes since given Murray taking more than Huerter
• Significant increase in closely guarded shot attempts this year
• Decrease in open shots and wide open shots
• Significant decrease in make % on Tight, Open, and Wide Open shots this year

Some of this may just be variance for shooters in general.  Some may be attributed to roster construction without a ton of spacing.  Some may be attributed to taking fewer shots overall which, history suggests, is a losing proposition for Trae.  

That is great.  Do they have that for the whole team as well?  I suspect the increase in more closely guarded shots wasn't unique to him but is seen across the broader data set as well (and seen across the non-Trae data set).

When looking at Trae's numbers, you can see a cumulative effect between taking a higher % of closely guarded shots and shooting worse on those especially in the "2-4 Feet - Tight" category but also a worse % on the open or loosely guarded shots as well.

[Peoriabird]

15 minutes ago, AHF said:

I said a significantly reduced scoring role.  Not a reduction in playmaking role.  So the key to this discussion is understanding how big of a shift in shots you want to see happen or that you think will happen (i.e., shots that Trae isn't taking and others are taking).

Where do you see Trae in the pecking order in terms of FGA/gm under Quin next year?  I still see him at the top of the list unless we pull off some major trade that I don't expect to see.  (I think Quin comes in expecting Trae to maintain that kind of role).  Do you think he won't be the leading shot taker?

Oh so you think like that?  The number of shots should be set?  That's the problem and I'm hear to tell you your offense will never be good if the least efficient player is going to be guarantee the most shots.  Just plain ignorant.

[REHawksFan]

3 minutes ago, AHF said:

That is great.  Do they have that for the whole team as well?  I suspect the increase in more closely guarded shots wasn't unique to him but is seen across the broader data set as well (and seen across the non-Trae data set).

When looking at Trae's numbers, you can see a cumulative effect between taking a higher % of closely guarded shots and shooting worse on those especially in the "2-4 Feet - Tight" category but also a worse % on the open or loosely guarded shots as well.

They do.  Here's the link.  I don't have time to put together a chart for the rest of the team like I did for Trae, but you can play around with the drop downs to see whichever range you want.  

Closest Defender

 

EDIT:  If it says "No Data Available" just change the range once and it should populate. 

Edited April 28, 2023 by REHawksFan

[Diesel]

6 minutes ago, TheNorthCydeRises said:

 

He doesn't believe in TS% because a lot of fans discount free throw attempts.  And guys who may shoot a higher FG% than Trae, will impact the game less because they don't play aggressive enough to draw fouls.

Oh.  Ok.

 

[JeffS17]

3 minutes ago, TheNorthCydeRises said:

 

He doesn't believe in TS% because a lot of fans discount free throw attempts.  And guys who may shoot a higher FG% than Trae, will impact the game less because they don't play aggressive enough to draw fouls.

To be fair, I'm one of those fans.  I've went back and forth with @AHF on this a lot and IMO this playoff series is evidence why EFG% is very important.  Trae's FTA went down in the playoffs, and frankly, that's including much much more physical defense, and a lot of those free throws are technical free throws, 3 seconds in the paint, flagrants, end of game fouling, etc.  The playoffs is all about making shots, not drawing fouls.  The refs made that very clear in this first round across all series, which is why I still highly value EFG%.