Official Game Thread: Hawks at Raptors

[lethalweapon3]

“I WILL NOT EAT ANY MORE CRANBERRY BLISS BARS. I WILL NOT EAT ANY MORE CRANBERRY BLISS BARS. I WILL NOT EAT ANY…”

 

Will the Atlanta Hawks widen the Eastern Conference Crab Barrel? Heading into another tough matchup with the Raptors in Toronto (7:30 PM Eastern, Fox Sports Southeast and 92.9 FM in ATL, TSN in T-Dot), followed by a Saturday night trip back home to face the Hornets, it’s sure shaping up that way.

Our half-baked Hawks found plenty of offense on Tuesday. Problem was, they allowed Orlando (without Nik Vucevic) to get plenty more, in a 131-120 torching that was just the latest in a trend of embarrassing and/or lopsided losses. Orlando came in as the worst offense in the NBA outside of Philly or Dallas (or Atlanta). Guess who currently has the best?

Toronto (18-7) is threatening to shatter all-time NBA records for offensive efficiency. At 115.3 points per 100 possessions, that rate would be the highest in recorded league history (since such records were first kept in 1983-84). It’s better than Golden State’s current 113.5 O-Rating, and better than the Showtime Lakers of 1986-87, history’s current season-long leader. In more modern times, only Steve Nash and Alvin Gentry’s Suns of 2009-10 (112.3) came close to what the Dubs and Raps are doing right now.

Toronto is accomplishing this with a 2-guard that makes just 28.6% of his threes. They’re led, of course, by DeMar DeRozan (career-high 28.0 PPG; 2.9 more shots per game than last season, in 0.3 fewer minutes). Thanks largely to DeRozan, Toronto’s the only team that averages over one point per possession (1.03) on isolation plays, resulting in scores nearly half (49.6%) the time. Interestingly, the Hawks have a league-high 49.6 eFG% on isos, but as you know, relying just 6.0% of the Budball offense on those plays renders that fact trivial.

The Raps are breaking offensive records while averaging just 20.4 APG (26^th in NBA). The antithesis of Budball, Dwane Casey’s club knows that their assists come not from passing, but in setting screens that allow Kyle Lowry (last ten games: 23.4 PPG, 56.8 FG%, 59.2 3FG%, 7.3 APG) to improvise.

In addition to isos, the Raps (guided by Lowry) lead the NBA with scores on 46.8% of P&R ballhandler plays, their 50.7 eFG% on those plays a league-best, their 0.96 points per possession behind only Portland’s 0.97. The roll man hardly gets touches (28^th in play frequency), yet even they feast, the Raptors scoring on an NBA-high 57.7% of roll man plays.

Unlike the Hawks, who are constantly a work in progress/regress, there is no round-hole training in store for the Raps’ many square pegs. Casey allows his top talent to control the ball and make the plays they’re most comfortable executing. By doing so, his team becomes the RON RAPRS, by eliminating the TOs (12.3 turnovers per 100 possessions, 2^nd-lowest in league to Charlotte’s 12.0). Against the eight teams that turn the ball over the least, the Hawks’ record is 0-5, allowing 126.7 PPG in those last three matchups.

Included in that group is the 128-84 pasting endured at the hands of the Raps on this Air Canada Centre floor just two weeks ago, the biggest beatdown Toronto has ever enjoyed against anybody pretending to be an NBA outfit.

The Hawks let the bottom fall completely out on December 3^rd with a 42-14 Toronto advantage in the final quarter, Atlanta unable to keep the lead from widening even after Casey put four backups and rookie Pascal Siakam on the floor to close things out (our old friend Bebe Nogueira had 9 points and two blocks in the 4^th). Toronto players coughed up the ball just 12 times (28 assists; 13-for-24 3FGs), compared to the Hawks’ 18 (21 assists; 7-for-28 3FGs), a modest number for the visitors these days.

The Hawks can give themselves half a chance tonight, not just by keeping the turnover margin close, but by keeping Toronto Canada-Dry at the line, where they get 26.1 shots per contest (second in the East only to…? Yep, Charlotte’s 26.5). Atlanta actually did this two weeks ago, “holding” Toronto to a season-low (for both teams) 11 FT attempts, or else that 44-point margin might have gotten even worse.

Hawks defenders have to draw lines from the rim out to the three-point break lines, and keep Lowry and DeRozan from getting open or lightly-contested looks from within the “funnel zone.” On-ball defenders need to ICE Toronto’s sideline screens and make their dynamic duo work from the corners and baselines. Dennis Schröder and Thabo Sefolosha should rely on the baseline/endline plus help from the Hawks’ bigs to keep Lowry and DeRozan out of the paint and settling for well-contested shots.

Paul Millsap (DNP @ TOR on Dec. 3) allowed Serge Ibaka to have a field day from outside on Tuesday, and must rotate out to the perimeter and contest Patrick Patterson (season-high 17 points vs. ATL on Dec. 3) whenever the Raptor forward is in the game. Atlanta’s wings have to help the bigs clog the middle, and make Toronto’s passes out to corner-oriented shooters like Terrence Ross (44.7 3FG%) and DeMarre Carroll a tougher task.

Swapping out the TNT duo (Timmy ‘n Thabo) with the K&K Music Factory (Kyle ‘n Kent) has led to good vibrations at the starts of the first and second halves for Atlanta (last 3 games: starters 5^th in O-Rating, 14^th in D-Rating). But it’s also led to a lack of explosiveness by the reserves (last 3 games: bench 12^th in O-Rating, 28^th in D-Rating).

There’s no help coming for the M&Ms (Moose and Malcolm), who have melted after energetic starts to the season, even before losing the offense/defense contributions of Hardaway and Sefolosha. Better coaching effort is needed for Mike Muscala (plus/minus: +4.3 first 11 games, -7.2 last 14 games, no “positives” last 9 games) and Malcolm Delaney (+8.5 first ten games, -8.0 last ten games with one “positive”) to better understand their defensive roles.

The reserves also must stop getting caught out of position when transitioning to D, or else they’ll continue to get blitzed by benches like Toronto, whose offensive efficiency (117.7 O-Rating and +15.1 net rating, best in NBA) is even better than the starters (113.7, 3^rd in NBA).

When bench players like Orlando’s Elfrid Payton (career-highs of 26 points AND 14 assists, +47 on/off vs. ATL) and Jeff Green (+55 on/off vs. ATL) are getting carte blanche shots, someone is not doing their homework. Ross (6-for-8 FGs vs. ATL on Dec. 3) has decided to use breakaway dunks to advertise his candidacy for All-Star Saturday Night, and Atlanta needs to keep him off SportsCenter/SportsCentre tonight.

Mike Budenholzer might help the struggling bench out by allowing a third “T” (rookie Taurean Prince) to share some of Kyle Korver’s and Kent Bazemore’s duties. Prince has been relegated to spot duty (less than 2 minutes) in the past two games. Despite some struggles in the past couple weeks, including his last visit to Toronto, expanded minutes for Taurean could help Atlanta better contest opponent shots.

If Muscala struggles to make a positive defensive impact from the jump, Coach Bud should not hesitate to turn to a third “K” (ex-Raptor Kris Humphries), if only in search of an immediate spark until the Hawks finish benefitting from the insurance collection on the fourth “T” (Tiago Splitter).

Thanks to a conference full of underwhelming teams, the off-days (five in the past six) have helped the Hawks (12-13) more than anything they’ve done on the floor. As frustrating as Atlanta’s season has been over the past month, you look up in the standings, and there is Charlotte, the East’s third-seed of the moment, just 1.5 games ahead of them. It’s almost a mirage!

Taking each game seriously, and one at a time, and pulling off at least two out of their next three, might be just enough for the Hawks and Hornets (14-12) to trade places in the standings. Continuing to perform with predictable unpredictability, though, would have more and more Hawks fans staring in the other direction.

Charlotte’s Kemba Walker was excused from tonight’s game in Boston for personal reasons, and will be ready to go on Saturday night in Atlanta. A two-game weekend losing streak prior to a trip to OKC would allow the Hawks to build a bridge for fellow division foes Washington (1.5 GB) and Orlando (2.0 GB) back into playoff contention. The Hawks claim there’s still plenty of camaraderie in the locker room, but letting the Wizards and Magic up for air is not the kind of bridge-building anyone has in mind.

 

Let’s Go Hawks!

~lw3

 

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[Thomas]

7 minutes ago, lethalweapon3 said:

If Muscala struggles to make a positive defensive impact from the jump, Coach Bud should not hesitate to turn to a third “K” (ex-Raptor Kris Humphries), if only in search of an immediate spark until the Hawks finish benefitting from the insurance collection on the fourth “T” (Tiago Splitter).

Thats a mouthful right there and what does it take to get Bud to take the blinders off. No more Moose at center because he will indeed struggle and oh so well on defense.  

[Dnice]

[benhillboy]

1 hour ago, Dnice said:

If all I glean out of this game is this post it was worth it.

I forgot this game was today.  Ugh.  

I'm pretty sure the Raps aren't gonna finish with the top offensive efficiency rating ever but to be up there with the Showtime Lakers is unbelievable.  Hopefully we just keep it competitive.  Raps -8.  After last meeting though -80 ain't far fetched.

"RON RAPRS."  "Melting M & Ms." Where does Leeth come up with these gems?

Edited December 16, 2016 by benhillboy

[Guest]

1 hour ago, Dnice said:

[Guest]

 

[Guest]

 

[ATLSmith]

It's Hawks game day! Yay!

 

[Sarcatic1]

Great first half. The best I have seen them play on both ends in a long ass time. Need to carry this over into the second half

[TheNorthCydeRises]

Hawks need to survive the first 6 minutes of this quarter.  If they can extend the lead by the time the K&K Music Factory come in ( lol @ that ), they just might get a nice win tonight.

( literally 90 seconds later )

Lead down to 11, with Derozan scoring all 6 of the Raptors' points.

( sigh )  It is never easy.

[AUhawksfan]

This one is for the Dwight haters!

Also, I'll hold off on De-lamey for now.  He was a serviceable backup tonight.

[Lurker]

1 hour ago, TheNorthCydeRises said:

Hawks need to survive the first 6 minutes of this quarter.  If they can extend the lead by the time the K&K Music Factory come in ( lol @ that ), they just might get a nice win tonight.

( literally 90 seconds later )

Lead down to 11, with Derozan scoring all 6 of the Raptors' points.

( sigh )  It is never easy.

That was actually the best they (and Delaney for that matter) had looked in a long while.

[Dnice]

3 hours ago, JayBirdHawk said:

 

"Balanced scoring"...."spread the wealth"...lol

 

Oh well shame on me....for the time being.

[Garchelino]

Impressive win even more that the Cavs game. Offense is clicking outscoring this Raptors team with 55%FG.

Howard and Schröder were great, eventhough Dennis had -17. Bench was pretty good. Finally Baze and Korver showed out. This team could be pretty special if we could play most of the games with sense of urgency, energy and focus. 

GO HAWKS!

[Gray Mule]

What happened?

Hawks missed 10 free throws, yet they won.

Washed up Kyle Korver misssed 4 three point tries, yet they win.

We insulted our bench and they came thru!

[Lurker]

I said in in the chat, this is a time in which the analytics can be thrown out. Dennis played well. Bulldog guards bother him though on the defensive end.

And this team still can't guard three guard lineups, the difference was Toronto not starting in them. they did figure out Patterson to an extent though.

[Marvin24Williams]

im just happy we got a win. hopefully this puts us back on track

[JTB]

Everyone commenting should mention how great Howard was tonight including supes....

howard played great on both ends of the court and shot his free throws well. His players found him multiple times when he was in a good deep post position and D8 overall absolutely OWNED the paint tonight!

Too bad they didn't give him his flagrant foul..had he done that he'd be suspended.

 

dennis played well too! Last 8 games 20points plus on 52 percent shooting and 6 assists. I don't want to jinx him but he keep that up and he will get all star consideration for reserve in the east.

 

Im proud of this team tonight they looked awesome and should have won by more but I feel the refs were doing all they could to help the raptors keep it close and they succeeded on doing just that but it didn't help them win the game which is the most important part.

[JTB]

8 minutes ago, Lurker said:

I said in in the chat, this is a time in which the analytics can be thrown out. Dennis played well. Bulldog guards bother him though on the defensive end.

And this team still can't guard three guard lineups, the difference was Toronto not starting in them. they did figure out Patterson to an extent though.

Agreed but Corey Joseph was running over Delaney like a train with no charges called. I don't feel like that's "aggressiveness".

[kurupt]

This looked a lot like the team that started the season 9-2 and as back then, it was mainly because Howard made his presence felt throughout. Good job, more of this please!

(Also: they hit their 3's)

Edited December 17, 2016 by kurupt