2017 Dynasty Draft - Pick Selection and Discussion Thread

[lethalweapon3]

SUM-MELO Summary

As was the case in 2016, @AHF’s team would finish with the top-seed heading into the 2018 SDL Playoffs, based on the cumulative SUM-MELO scores. This, despite picking 8^th out of nine SDL teams in the opening round of the SDL Draft. Unlike last season’s projections, where AHF’s team fell to second-place behind Buzzard’s team after the initial season, the U-Niques have staying power, and would finish with the top seed in each of the latter four seasons, through 2021-22.

Combining stable decline by his veterans with projected advancements by his rookies (Jayson Tatum, Markelle Fultz, Josh Jackson) and early-year players, AHF’s SUM-MELO estimate increases by 2.8% in 2018-19. That represents the only year-to-year growth by any SDL team in any of the five seasons measured (2017-18 through 2021-22).

Capstone’s Crew doesn’t sink much. Sparked by steady projected growth from Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jamal Murray, and D’Angelo Russell, its four-year decline of 22.2% is the best in the entire SDL field. That should allow @capstone21’s club to stay comfortably in the 3-seed in each of the next five seasons, gaining on 2-seed @lethalweapon3’s tall yet inexperienced team from 2018 on. The Lethal Flexibility relies on the long-term outlook for Lonzo Ball to offset the eventual decline by Stephen Curry.

After AHF, tops among the declining teams in 2018-19 is @pimp’s team, with a SUM-MELO score that droops only 0.8% from 2017-18. That allows the youthful cadets in the ATL Air Force (notably Jaylen Brown, Andrew Wiggins, and Dennis Smith, Jr.) to soar into the SDL Top 5, ahead of @Diesel’s team, beginning in 2019. Kristaps Porzingis and his beefy Atlanta Gantsaslappas, though, would barge their way back into the SDL Top 5 in the subsequent three seasons.

No roster embodied the “Win Now” spirit as well as @LucastheThird’s, which would enter the SDL Playoffs as a 4-seed. Lt3’s collection of players are the eldest and most-experienced in the league, which could go a long way once the postseason arrives. But, they are also projected to experience the steepest First-Year Decline, a 13.3% drop in 2018-19, and a 69.5% decline by 2021-22.

Swifter growth by younger players Jabari Parker, Buddy Hield, and better-than-expected returns from Dewayne Dedmon with help from head coach Mike Budenholzer, could help sustain the Monsters’ contention a little longer. As it stands, though, Lt3’s team would finish among the top-five for one more season (2018-19) before sliding to last place among the SDL field by 2021-22.

Two of the older clubs (PSSSHHHRRR87 and HopefulHawksFan) after Lt3’s did not fare quite so well out of the gates. @HopefulHawksFan’s team drafted last in the odd-numbered rounds for the second-straight season. Her Hopeful Highlight Film squad hopes for more fortuitous lottery ball bouncing in 2018, with further hopes that emerging young talents like Taurean Prince and John Collins help the time pass quickly.

Joining the draft late in place of jy23 set the bar perhaps too high for @PSSSHHHRRR87’s team to catch up. The Birds of a Feather will stick together, with Aaron Gordon expected to lead the way in latter seasons, but are projected to hold the top odds coming into the next four SDL Draft Lotteries, edging out @Buzzard’s 8-seeded team for the next three.

Thanks to up-and-comers like Dennis Schröder and Jonathan Isaac, the Flocking Buzzards had the fifth-slowest 1-Year and 4-Year declines, but they were not flat enough to join the rest of the league’s competitive field.

As it turns out, experience may not be the best teacher. Diesel’s and capstone21’s are the only rosters with above-average playing experience that reach the Top 5 in at least three SDL seasons.

** data to follow in latter post... refer to https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/carmelo/ for individual career-player projections.

~lw3

[lethalweapon3]

Here are the top five teams in each forthcoming season, adding together the CARMELO estimates of Wins Above Replacement (WAR) for the 13 players on each Summer Dynasty League team to produce SUM-MELO scores.

2017-18 Season

1. AHF -- 65.0
2. lethalweapon3 -- 62.3
3. capstone21 -- 58.0
4. LucastheThird -- 57.7
5. Diesel -- 53.6

 

2018-19 Season

1. AHF -- 66.8
2. lethalweapon3 -- 61.1
3. capstone21 -- 56.5
4. pimp -- 50.3
5. LucastheThird -- 50.0

 

2019-20 Season

1. AHF -- 64.5
2. lethalweapon3 -- 56.7
3. capstone21 -- 53.4
4. pimp -- 46.9
5. Diesel -- 43.1

 

2020-21 Season

1. AHF -- 58.7
2. lethalweapon3 -- 50.9
3. capstone21 -- 50.1
4. pimp -- 41.8
5. Diesel -- 36.3

 

2021-22 Season

1. AHF -- 50.3
2. lethalweapon3 -- 45.9
3. capstone21 -- 45.1
4. pimp -- 36.3
5. Diesel -- 30.4

 

Best Rates of Improvement/Decline through Next Season

1. AHF -- up 2.8%
2. pimp -- down 0.8%
3. lethalweapon3 -- down 1.9%
4. capstone21 -- down 2.6%
5. Buzzard -- down 6.4%

 

Best Rates of Decline over 5 Seasons

1. capstone21 -- down 22.2%
2. AHF -- down 22.6%
3. lethalweapon3 -- down 26.3%
4. pimp -- down 28.4%
5. Buzzard -- down 37.8%

 

5-Season SUM-MELO Scores by Team (2017-18 through 2021-22)

@AHF -- 65.0/66.8/64.5/58.7/50.3

@Buzzard -- 43.7/40.9/37.5/31.9/27.2

@capstone21 -- 58.0/56.5/53.4/50.1/45.1

@Diesel -- 53.6/49.2/43.1/36.3/30.4

@HopefulHawksFan -- 47.6/42.7/38.0/32.1/26.5

@lethalweapon3 -- 62.3/61.1/56.7/50.9/45.9

@LucastheThird -- 57.7/50.0/40.4/32.4/17.6

@pimp -- 50.7/50.3/46.9/41.8/36.3

@PSSSHHHRRR87 -- 41.7/36.8/30.7/24.5/19.0

 

~lw3

[AHF]

More kudos to lw3 for putting together the analysis and even more for obviously cooking the numbers in my favor!  

We mods have to stick together... 

[LucastheThird]

Those rankings feel rigged. 

I need a recount, from someone bipartisan.  @NBASupes

/s

[Buzzard]

I am with @LucastheThird Last season I did really well but this year I like my team better. I want a recount; this feels like a Florida Ballot Box 

[NBASupes]

On 8/18/2017 at 6:01 PM, LucastheThird said:

Those rankings feel rigged. 

I need a recount, from someone bipartisan.  @NBASupes

/s

What am I looking at here?

[AHF]

He wanted feedback on lethal's last post listing the sum-memo scores for each roster.

[lethalweapon3]

Too busy today, but for kicks and giggles I wanna look at last year's actual SUM-MELO scores for the 2016 SDL participants and see how they fared relative to the preseason estimates.

~lw3

[LucastheThird]

11 hours ago, NBASupes said:

What am I looking at here?

Judge the teams. @Buzzard and I want an eye test judge. Only halfway joking.

[lethalweapon3]

I do have time to post the teams side-by-side, I forgot to do that last week. Will get right on that!

~lw3

[Buzzard]

32 minutes ago, LucastheThird said:

Judge the teams. @Buzzard and I want an eye test judge. Only halfway joking.

All kidding about a recount aside, I know for a fact my PGs are not super great and my PFs are hurting; but I could not have scripted my 1st three picks any better. So I am still quite content with my team.

Edited August 20, 2017 by Buzzard

[lethalweapon3]

2017-18 SUMMER DYNASTY LEAGUE ROSTERS

(likely starters in Bold)

 

AHF U-NIQUES

Guards: Chris Paul, James Harden, Markelle Fultz, Tim Hardaway, Jr., Ricky Rubio, Josh Jackson

Forwards: Kawhi Leonard, Blake Griffin, Jayson Tatum, Myles Turner

Centers: Joel Embiid, Greg Monroe, Clint Capela

Head Coach: Gregg Popovich

GM: AHF

 

THE FLOCKING BUZZARDS

Guards: Kemba Walker, Klay Thompson, Dennis Schröder, J.J. Redick, Reggie Jackson, Avery Bradley

Forwards: Gordon Hayward, Serge Ibaka, Harrison Barnes, Derrick Favors, Jonathan Isaac

Centers: Karl-Anthony Towns, Hassan Whiteside

Head Coach: Stan Van Gundy

GM: Buzzard

 

CAPSTONE’S CREW

Guards: Kyle Lowry, Devin Booker, Jrue Holiday, Nicolas Batum, D’Angelo Russell, Jamal Murray

Forwards: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Anthony Davis, Jae Crowder, Dirk Nowitzki, Marquese Chriss

Centers: Rudy Gobert, Tristan Thompson

Head Coach: Brad Stevens

GM: capstone21

 

ATLANTA GANTSASLAPPAS

Guards: Russell Westbrook, Eric Bledsoe, Jeff Teague, Lou Williams, Jeremy Lin, Seth Curry

Forwards: Paul George, Kristaps Porzingis, Brandon Ingram, Julius Randle, JaMychal Green

Centers: DeAndre Jordan, Brook Lopez

Head Coach: Rick Carlisle

GM: Diesel

 

HOPEFUL HIGHLIGHT FILM

Guards: Kyrie Irving, Jimmy Butler, Goran Dragic, Kyle Korver, Tyler Ulis, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope

Forwards: Otto Porter, Kevin Love, Taurean Prince, John Collins

Centers: Steven Adams, Marc Gasol, Pau Gasol

Head Coach: Erik Spoelstra

GM: HopefulHawksFan

 

LETHAL FLEXIBILITY

Guards: Stephen Curry, Khris Middleton, Lonzo Ball, Gary Harris, Bogdan Bogdanovic

Forwards: Ben Simmons, Draymond Green, Robert Covington, Markieff Morris, Dario Saric

Centers: Nikola Jokic, Nikola Vucevic, Cody Zeller

Head Coach: Jason Kidd

GM: lethalweapon3

 

MONSTERS AMONG MEN

Guards: John Wall, Bradley Beal, Patrick Beverley, Eric Gordon, Buddy Hield

Forwards: LeBron James, Paul Millsap, Danilo Gallinari, Thaddeus Young, Jabari Parker

Centers: Al Horford, Dwight Howard, Dewayne Dedmon

Head Coach: Mike Budenholzer

GM: LucastheThird

 

ATL AIR FORCE

Guards: Damian Lillard, C.J. McCollum, Isaiah Thomas, Zach LaVine, Dennis Smith, Jr.

Forwards: Andrew Wiggins, Kevin Durant, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Gorgui Dieng, Jaylen Brown

Centers: DeMarcus Cousins, Jusuf Nurkic, Nerlens Noel

Head Coach: Steve Kerr

GM: pimp

 

BIRDS OF A FEATHER

Guards: Mike Conley, DeMar DeRozan, George Hill, Victor Oladipo, Malcolm Brogdon, Wesley Matthews, Jr.

Forwards: Carmelo Anthony, LaMarcus Aldridge, Tobias Harris, Aaron Gordon

Centers: Andre Drummond, Robin Lopez, Alan Williams

Head Coach: Dave Joerger

GM: PSSSHHHRRR87

 

~lw3

[NBASupes]

1. AHF- best coaching, roster balance and overall talent. His bench is very solid as well. 

2. Capstone- He bet high on bench scoring, uber talent and length. A lot of freaks and two very good shooting Guards. He has a nice mix of Offense and defense with the wings.

3. Monster among men - Best bench by far. Extremely good starting but outside of Beal, the perimeter shooting is so so but at the end of the day, you have LeBron Raymone James. This team could win it all with 1 and 2.

4. LETHAL- Shooting,  passing and versatility makes this team a scary matchup for anyone. The best passing and shooting team on the bunch and one that is a contender as well.

5. Air Force- The last contender on the list. Lead by KD, this team has elite offense but the defense just isn't enough to win it all.

 

6. Buzzards- Top notch bench but without superstars and A- level starters, it will be hard to contender. 

To be continued 

[PSSSHHHRRR87]

If you can't be first then be the worst! #TrustTheProcess

[Diesel]

Too Many Hanging Chads....  I want a recount.

You can't convince me that any team on here can hang with my starting 5. 

 

[lethalweapon3]

(NOTE: this post regards the 2016 Summer Dynasty League Draft, not 2017's)

I went back to the 2016 SUM-MELO predictions to see how teams' compiled scores actually played out during the 2016-17 season.

In the SUM-MELO-based predictions, @Alex's team was projected to finish the regular season 5th out of 16 participants. But the continued rise of players like Isaiah Thomas and super-Spartan Gary Harris, plus the steady contributions from DeAndre Jordan, Marc Gasol, and Kawhi Leonard, all helped propel his team to the head of the class.

@AHF's team was predicted to be 2016-17's top-seed. Still, thanks to the likes of Kevin Durant, Kyle Lowry and Rudy Gobert, his squad finished in a close second, way in front of the rest of a crowded field led by @PSSSHHHRRR87, @capstone21, @h4wkfan, @TheFuzz, @Diesel, @ViewsFromTheSquawk, and @LucastheThird (the latter, it should be noted, was predicted to finish last but nearly made the top half of the standings). Less than three SUM-MELO points separated the 3-seed from the 9-seed.

AHF's might have pulled out the top spot in the end-of-season SDL rankings with a full effort by Rodney Hood and upstarts Jamal Murray and Dario Saric. Still, the SUM-MELO predictor was pretty on-the-mark in his case. His was one of 5 out of the 16 SDL teams whose actual SUM-MELO score was within 5.0% of what was predicted. Only three teams: LucastheThird's, Alex's and PSSSHHHRRR87's were significantly underestimated.

On the other end of the spectrum, for teams like those belonging to @lethalweapon3, @Buzzard, @pimp, @HopefulHawksFan, and @ATLHawks3, the SUM-MELO scores were, as Mike Breen might put it, "WAY OFF." If you gambled on star turns by young up-and-comers, and those persons were, for example, LucastheThird's Giannis Antetokounmpo, your team exceeded expectations very well. If that foundation was, instead, lethalweapon3's underwhelming Kristaps Porzingis, or pimp's shelved Ben Simmons, then your team was headed for a major downgrade for 2016-17.

lw3's poor performance (38% lower than predicted, finishing next-to-last, barely ahead of pimp) in 2016-17 led to a revised 2020-21 projection that was almost 25% less then predicted at this time last year. Fire whoever's running that outfit. But it's not all bad for the disappointing teams.

Buzzard's team (28% below 2016-17 projection) was originally projected to finish first by 2020-21.  But even a 16% drop in projected 2020-21 SUM-MELO score is good enough to have his group, with help at that point coming from Joel Embiid, come in second in projections behind AHF in that season.

 

ACTUAL 2016-2017 SUM-MELO SCORES

(Predicted score in parentheses) [Variance in brackets] Superlatives underlined

Alex -- 48.9 (41.9) [+16.7%]

AHF -- 46.9 (49.3) [-4.9%]

PSSSHHHRRR87 -- 40.6 (37.4) [+8.6%]

capstone21 -- 39.5 (45.3) [-12.8%]

h4wkfan -- 39.2 (40.4) [-3.0%]

TheFuzz -- 39.0 (39.4) [-1.0%]

Diesel -- 38.5 (36.7) [+4.9%]

ViewsFromTheSquawk -- 38.2 (37.4) [+2.1%]

LucastheThird -- 38.0 (31.2) [+21.8%]

ATLHawks3 -- 34.7 (41.5) [-16.4%]

Spud2Nique -- 34.5 (35.5) [-2.8%]

Buzzard -- 34.4 (47.6) [-27.7%]

HopefulHawksFan -- 27.2 (34.1) [-20.2%]

JayBirdHawk -- 27.2 (31.7) [-14.2%]

lethalweapon3 -- 24.2 (39.0) [-37.9%]

pimp -- 23.7 (32.2) [-26.4%]

 

REVISED (Summer 2017) 2020-2021 SUM-MELO ESTIMATES

(Prior Summer 2016 estimate in parentheses) [Variance in brackets] Superlatives underlined

AHF -- 35.9 (35.1) [+2.3%]

Buzzard -- 30.8 (36.7) [-16.1%]

Spud2Nique -- 29.7 (27.3) [+8.8%]

Alex -- 28.1 (27.3) [+2.9%]

LucastheThird -- 27.0 (26.5) [+1.9%]

TheFuzz -- 26.0 (23.7) [+9.7%]

h4wkfan -- 25.3 (27.4) [-7.7%]

HopefulHawksFan -- 25.1 (28.0) [-10.4%]

capstone21 -- 24.3 (27.8) [-12.6%]

PSSSHHHRRR87 -- 24.0 (19.3) [+24.4%]

JayBirdHawk -- 23.9 (26.0) [-8.1%]

lethalweapon3 -- 23.6 (31.3) [-24.6%]

ViewsFromtheSquawk -- 22.0 (22.1) [-0.5%]

pimp -- 19.6 (25.1) [-21.9%]

Diesel -- 19.3 (17.0) [+13.5%]

ATLHawks3 -- 14.8 (15.0) [-1.3%]

 

~lw3

[AHF]

@lethalweapon3=

[Alex]

Wow awesome work!  Enjoyed reading it.

[Buzzard]

I like what you are showing here LW3. My teams fate is pretty much based on my gamble on Favors and Schröder. If Schröder can continue to improve to his playoff level, I am good at PG; then if Favors returns to his 2015 form of 16.4, 8.1, and 1.5 blocks, I will be a much better team. 

I based my whole draft at PF on people sleeping on Favors, It has to pay off I tell ya!

[Spud2nique]

Are we running this back for 2018. I noticed @AHF swept like all the categories last year. Who does he think he is, the scrubs? I’d like to join this year and give him a run for his money ?!