Let's Talk Draft Picks

[marco102]

This isn't encouraging chatter about Killian.  I'm much higher on him.

 

[BangHolman]

11 hours ago, kg01 said:

Sam Mitchell and Seth Greenberg on nbaradio draft special today.  Broke down the Kutcher pro day.  Here are a few notes.

Disclaimer:  You all know how I feel about Edwards.  I promise I'm just relaying what these dudes said.  That said, Edwards fans,, when I get to the edwards stuff ..... earmuffs.

First on Wiseman though.  Sam recruited him while on staff at MEM so he saw most of his games.  Loves him, thinks he's best in the draft.

- On his poor stats at times, said he saw a bunch of 18+ rebound games but he'd have 14 pys on 7 dunks.  He'd tell the coach, "why you got this fat kid shooting 30 shots but nobody's passing the ball to the #1 pick in the draft?!"

Ok on the pro day.

- Maxey showed up ready.  Had a smile on his face, looked explosive, joyful playing the game.

- Agents say he works out every morning.  Worked out prior to the pro day, loves the game.

- On Edwards, *sigh*, "If you're the agent, why would you let him work out if you know he's outta shape?"

- "If I was the agent, I would've canceled and made up another reason." - Mitchell

- Greenberg: He's obviously athletic, specimen.  Hit a lotta shots vs michst which everyone points to, but does he impact winning?

Folks say Harden, Wade, etc but the great ones have a PhD in basketball.  That's why they're great.  They get lost in the game..  They eat, sleep, drink basketball (and know the game).  [Implied he doesn't see that in edwards.]

Each thought Vassell is a guy who'll play a key role defensively.  Weren't concerned about the video of his funk'd up shot.

Long-time lurker, first-time poster ha

Edwards is Wiggins 2,0. You're not getting a winning basketball player, just an athletic specimen. I'll be upset if that's the direction we go, especially giving up a core player to do so (the #6 + Huerter for #2 deal mentioned is too much for me). I don't believe the difference between Edwards and the player we draft at 6 is worth Huerter, take Haliburton or Hayes. Hell, if you want a pure athlete with a high ceiling take Patrick Williams.

[BangHolman]

15 hours ago, bleachkit said:

Does anyone have ESPN insider? Id love to see Pelton's rankings. His track record is as good as anyone's.

https://www.espn.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/30279182/nba-draft-tiers-top-prospects-stats-scouting

Players divided into Tiers, but not ranked within them.

Tier 1: Lamelo

Tier 2: Edwards and Haliburton

Tier 3: Deni, Okongwu, and Wiseman

Tier 4: Hampton, Hayes, Nesmith, Okoro, Toppin, and Vassell

Tier 5A: Anthony, Bey, Green Maxey, Maledon, and Williams

Tier 5B: Achiuwa, Azubuike, Bane, Bolmaro, Flynn, Joe, Jones, Mannion, Pokusevski, Reed, Smith, Terry, Tillman, and Winston.

[AHF]

8 minutes ago, BangHolman said:

Long-time lurker, first-time poster ha

Edwards is Wiggins 2,0. You're not getting a winning basketball player, just an athletic specimen. I'll be upset if that's the direction we go, especially giving up a core player to do so (the #6 + Huerter for #2 deal mentioned is too much for me). I don't believe the difference between Edwards and the player we draft at 6 is worth Huerter, take Haliburton or Hayes. Hell, if you want a pure athlete with a high ceiling take Patrick Williams.

Welcome out of the shadows, @BangHolman!  Glad to have you join the conversation.

[bleachkit]

8 hours ago, marco102 said:

This isn't encouraging chatter about Killian.  I'm much higher on him.

 

Damn, that was pretty harsh. 

[JayBirdHawk]

12 minutes ago, BangHolman said:

Long-time lurker, first-time poster ha

Edwards is Wiggins 2,0. You're not getting a winning basketball player, just an athletic specimen. I'll be upset if that's the direction we go, especially giving up a core player to do so (the #6 + Huerter for #2 deal mentioned is too much for me). I don't believe the difference between Edwards and the player we draft at 6 is worth Huerter, take Haliburton or Hayes. Hell, if you want a pure athlete with a high ceiling take Patrick Williams.

Welcome @BangHolman....Welcome aboard.  Hang on tight, you're in for a helluva ride on the Squawk.

[Gray Mule]

BANGHOLMAN - Welcome!   Share your thoughts here.  Get ready!  Someone thinks differently and will let you know at once.  It's a love \ hate relationship.  But, it's the belief of most of us that we really want to see the Hawks improve and win..

 

[kg01]

9 hours ago, marco102 said:

This isn't encouraging chatter about Killian.  I'm much higher on him.

 

That's a curious interpretation of facts though.

He's basically saying he didn't look so great when he was 15 and 16 but looks good now .. or, as he put it, he's being made to look good now (artificially by his club team).

NBA teams aren't dumb.  They'd spot something like that from a mile away.  To support his point, he's now saying Hayes will fall out of the lottery.

Other folks I've listened to have said the same (that Hayes didn't look great in U16/U17 action but looks good now) but have cited the growth in his game/maturity as being the reasons for the progression. 

Maybe Lowe's saying these were moles placed by his club team?  Seems like a weird conspiracy

I'd be curious to hear what his co-host said in response.  His co-host is the guy who's endorsement got me interested in Hayes in the first place.

[macdaddy]

2 hours ago, BangHolman said:

Long-time lurker, first-time poster ha

Edwards is Wiggins 2,0. You're not getting a winning basketball player, just an athletic specimen. I'll be upset if that's the direction we go, especially giving up a core player to do so (the #6 + Huerter for #2 deal mentioned is too much for me). I don't believe the difference between Edwards and the player we draft at 6 is worth Huerter, take Haliburton or Hayes. Hell, if you want a pure athlete with a high ceiling take Patrick Williams.

Welcome!  I'm higher on Edwards but i agree about giving Huerter up for him.   I don't think that will happen though.   Pick swap and future 1st might get it done.  We don't need Edwards to do anything but be energy and scoring off the bench so i think it's a perfect situation.   That said I'm not hung up on the idea.   I think Travis is going to do some dealing probably and i'm guessing there is pressure to get some vet help.

[aali34]

Take Hayes or Haliburton and call it a night. Aside from Zion and Tatum, the majority of top players from the past few drafts have been playmaking gaurds with good passing instincts and the potential to shoot well.

This includes Ja Morant, Luka Doncic, Trae Young, Donovan Mitchell, De'Aaron Fox, Ben Simmons(can't shoot), Jamal Murray. If Lonzo Ball and Markelle Fultz hadn't forgotten how to shoot, they could of been included in this list as well.

Both prospects have traits that all of theses players share. The only question marks I have are whether Hayes can finish at the rim or if Haliburtons shooting mechanics hinder him like they did for Lonzo.

This can also apply to Lamelo Ball as well, but I don't think he and Trae can coexist and I feel that Lavar would want him running the show here which he wouldn't be doing.

 

[JayBirdHawk]

 

Quote

The Hawks need more talent on the wing and in the front court, even after drafting two wings in De’Andre Hunter and Cam Reddish last year. Avdija is projected as a combo forward, much like Hunter, but the Israeli brings a ball-handling element to his game that Hunter currently doesn’t have.

While one of Atlanta’s biggest needs to fill this offseason is a secondary playmaker, it remains to be seen if Avdija’s handle is at an NBA-level when he enters the league. In the Israeli Basketball League, Avdija was at his best when operating in the pick-and-roll for Maccabi Tel Aviv, which would make him a good fit for Atlanta’s predominantly spread pick-and-roll offense. He also excelled in operating in transition — again, something that fits Atlanta as a team that likes to run and go. At 6-foot-9, Avdija would offer the Hawks additional versatility on both ends of the floor, which is something general manager Travis Schlenk covets. Avdija doesn’t project to be as good of a defender as Auburn’s Isaac Okoro, but Avdija did show above-average awareness on that end of the floor with his ability to get into passing lanes and causing disruptions with his frequent ability to be in the right positions.

 

[JayBirdHawk]

This gives an overview of all the trade chatter on the Hawks and  draft picks. Most we have discussed at length here.

 

 

[RedDawg#8]

According to ESPN

the top 5 will be:

Ball/Edwards Wiseman Deni Toppin.

If that turned out to be the case and we stayed at 6, who are we drafting?

I think the 4 consensus choices would be:

Okoro, Hayes, Haliburton, and Okongwu.

So. Everyone stays put. We keep #6. The board falls exactly how they called it.

Who do we draft?

[JayBirdHawk]

6 minutes ago, RedDawg#8 said:

According to ESPN

the top 5 will be:

Ball/Edwards Wiseman Deni Toppi

If that turned out to be the case and we stayed at 6, who are we drafting?

I think the 4 consensus choices would be:

Okoro, Hayes, Haliburton, and Okongwu.

So. Everyone stays put. We keep #6. The board falls exactly how they called it.

Who do we draft?

One of the above.

[marco102]

2 hours ago, RedDawg#8 said:

According to ESPN

the top 5 will be:

Ball/Edwards Wiseman Deni Toppin.

If that turned out to be the case and we stayed at 6, who are we drafting?

I think the 4 consensus choices would be:

Okoro, Hayes, Haliburton, and Okongwu.

So. Everyone stays put. We keep #6. The board falls exactly how they called it.

Who do we draft?

Killian Hayes!

[bleachkit]

@JayBirdHawk Could you post this article?

It's Kevin Pelton's updated rankings.

https://www.espn.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/29335461/2020-nba-draft-projections-ranking-top-30-prospects

[Diesel]

I watched the ESPN mock.  The problem with ESPN is that like always they have a NY Slant.   All of them.   Let's be honest, NY got screwed in the draft lottery again... but that doesn't mean that all these other teams will bow to NY.

I think GS will move down... probably to Chicago to get Obi Toppin.  I'm not going to call him a "source" but I guy who I was reading made good points about their want for him and the fact that moving down can get them young talent like Markkenen. 

I actually looked at Okoro for us.  My problem with him is that he's not polished at all.  I think he's athletic and when that runs out he doesn't have the game understood.  He needed either more time in college or prior experience (AAU or something like that). But... he's an athletic freak and could be this years Iguodala. 

 For us though.. I don't think we're getting another wing/swing player.   There are better offerings in FAcy for us... I think if we keep the pick.. I can see us getting Haliburton.  Personally, I like NeSmith.  I think NeSmith will be better than Vassell or any of the dudes ahead of him. 

Okungwu is intriguing but he won't make it passed Cleveland. 

I think the effect that Bam has had on the league makes every Bam like player more valuable... when in essence, Bam is Unique.  Problem with guys like Okungwu and Wiseman is Physicality.   Okungwu especially made his bones by being able to overpower his opponents.   That ain't happening in the NBA.   I think Wiseman is fool's gold.   Who has this guy played?  I feel Hasheem Thabeet vibes off of Wiseman. 

 

Why is it that everytime I hear Anthony Edwards I think Anthony Bennett?  I know I'm supposed to be thinking Jimmy Butler/Dawayne Wade.. but  for some reason I feel Bennett... not that they play a similar position but the draft spot may be too high for him at #1.  I can see him falling towards us... I don't know if I would take him though. 

 

 

[JayBirdHawk]

55 minutes ago, bleachkit said:

@JayBirdHawk Could you post this article?

It's Kevin Pelton's updated rankings.

https://www.espn.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/29335461/2020-nba-draft-projections-ranking-top-30-prospects

I don't have ESPN Insider...sorry!

[marco102]

1 hour ago, bleachkit said:

@JayBirdHawk Could you post this article?

It's Kevin Pelton's updated rankings.

https://www.espn.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/29335461/2020-nba-draft-projections-ranking-top-30-prospects

Quote

. LaMelo Ball

Illawarra Hawks
PG
Top 100: No. 1
Stats: No. 1

Consensus: 4.9 WARP

In a draft that is wide open at the top, Ball's performance in the Australian NBL stands out. While the level of competition was low, Ball rated as the fourth-best player in the league at age 18 -- ahead of NBA veterans Bryce Cotton and Scott Machado, among others.

Ball's inefficient shooting (he made just 25% of his 3-point attempts) is a concern, but his playmaking and rebounding are both preternaturally strong. As a result, the gap between his consensus projection and anyone else's is larger than the difference between No. 2 and No. 9 in the rankings.

---

2. Tyrese Haliburton

Iowa State
PG
Top 100: No. 8
Stats: No. 2

Consensus: 3.4 WARP

Haliburton's freshman season stood out statistically, though he had a historically low usage rate for a prospect, finishing just 9% of the Cyclones' plays with a shot, trip to the free throw line or turnover. A strong performance at last summer's FIBA U19 World Cup put Haliburton firmly on the radar, and he backed it up by more than doubling his usage rate to 20% as a sophomore without sacrificing much efficiency.

Haliburton's strong steal and block rates are key indicators of his ability to read plays on defense, and he projects as one of the better shooters in the draft after hitting 43% of his 3s in college.

---

3. Anthony Edwards

Georgia
SG
Top 100: No. 2
Stats: No. 12

Consensus: 2.8 WARP

A decent but not spectacular freshman season marks Edwards as a relatively risky top pick. Other top-3 players with similar stats-only projections include hits (Victor Oladipo, Derrick Rose) but also big misses (Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Andrew Wiggins).

Edwards' value as a pro probably will depend on his ability to become a consistent 3-point threat after hitting just 29% of his 7.7 attempts per game in 2019-20.

---

4. Cole Anthony

North Carolina
PG
Top 100: No. 19
Stats: No. 3

Consensus: 2.7 WARP

Few top prospects have had such a big disparity between AAU and college performance as Anthony, who rated as the EYBL's best player both in 2017 as a rising junior (which is part of this projection) and again before his senior year of high school in 2018.

Based strictly on his season at North Carolina, where he made a disappointing 40% of his 2-point attempts and was far less effective accumulating assists and steals, Anthony would rate as a late first-round prospect rather than on in the top 5.

---

5. Devin Vassell

Florida State
W
Top 100: No. 11
Stats: No. 4

Consensus: 2.6 WARP

The strongest 3-and-D prospect in this year's draft, Vassell made 42% of his 3-point attempts over two seasons at Florida State and boasts a strong combination of steal and block rates that marks him as a plus wing defender.

He compares well to Danny Green coming out of North Carolina. Since we originally ran my projections in June, Vassell has moved up five spots in the top 100, moving him up to fifth in my consensus projections.

---

6. Deni Avdija

Maccabi Tel Aviv
F
Top 100: No. 4
Stats: No. 9

 

---

7. Onyeka Okongwu

USC
PF
Top 100: No. 5
Stats: No. 13

Consensus: 2.3 WARP

 

---

8. R.J. Hampton

New Zealand Breakers
G
Top 100: No. 15
Stats: No. 5

Consensus: 2.2 WARP

 

 

---

9. Killian Hayes

Ratiopharm Ulm
PG
Top 100: No. 10
Stats: No. 15

Consensus: 1.8 

---

10. Aaron Nesmith

Vanderbilt
W
Top 100: No. 13
Stats: No. 16

Consensus: 1.7 

---

 

Top 10 with comments for top 5.

[bleachkit]

18 minutes ago, marco102 said:

Top 10 with comments for top 5.

Thanks! He correctly predicted Luka and Trae, so I put more stock in his ranking than others.

29 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

I don't have ESPN Insider...sorry!

ok no problem.