Official Game Thread: Rockets at Hawks -- The Season Opener!

[Peoriabird]

1 minute ago, marco102 said:

Houston was sending three guys to crash the offensive glass. It's also why they out rebounded us. 

They were punished with fast break points because of this.

In fairness, many of those transition buckets came of steals.

[kg01]

46 minutes ago, sturt said:

I agree with the premise. I just think you're hoping against hope that, for us, that guy is that player. I don't see that guy on the roster yet. I think that's part of why Schleilds evidently took an interest in Crowder.

So, he's the one?  JHol is the mole on the Hawks' beautiful face that you just can't let go, stu? 

I'm kidding.  No, he's not perfect but when you're talking the 8th er 9th man all you wanna see is energy/effort really.  Breaking down stats is fine but, imeo, doesn't tell the full tale.

Would Crowder be an upgrade?  Eh, I guess.  He'd be different at least.  But again, we're talking 8ths and 9ths so not like the battleship'll tip once you add that deck chair.

Plus, even if Crowder is better, is he 'better' enough to meet the Suns' price?  I'm sure we both know the answer is a resounding 'newp'.  So let's dance with JHol while we got 'im.  Deal?

[kg01]

5 minutes ago, Peoriabird said:

The Hawks only shot 16 non Trae 3's and 6 went in which translate to 37.5%. Can we stop obsessing over 3 point shots at some point? The offense will be more efficient without the team taking so many 3's.

Midrange'd 'em to death.  I'm ok with us guttin' teams. 

[sturt]

4 minutes ago, kg01 said:

when you're talking the 8th er 9th man #11-#15 all you wanna see is energy/effort really and something more than a negative VORP

 

9 minutes ago, kg01 said:

Plus, even if Crowder is better, is he 'better' enough to meet the Suns' price?  I'm sure we both know the answer is a resounding 'newp'. 

Mmmhmmm... mmmhmmm... yep. Been my concern all along, as probably yours as well.

Wasn't really proposing so much as I was just supporting the point I was making... this visual pops up as I say that...

 

JDay can't be expected to cut it. *sly smile*

Maybe he will.

But it's not a smart bet.

And he's a rotation guy (for now), so it matters a little more.

We can only hope that AJ rises to the occasion within the first month or two to become the weapon we need there.

 

15 minutes ago, kg01 said:

So let's dance with JHol while we got 'im.  Deal?

Again. Again. Again.

I don't mind JDay in the third unit.

But if AJ doesn't rise to the occasion, and if JDay doesn't make me eat crow, our options are two guys who are on minimum contracts and a third who is a two-way... and to Maryland's point, none of which, not even AJ, would qualify for that locker room glue, gritty, dirty job vet role. (Indeed, I'd even contest that Justin's a locker room glue guy, but he's not a gritty, not a dirty job vet.)

So nah, we need to stop lying to ourselves as a fan base as-if "problem solved, we have Justin."

He's just not that guy.

We need, rather to hope for the best, but prepare for the worst (... made that up all by myself). We need to, in reality, strongly consider a Derrick Favors who is that guy in every respect. But I figure Derrick's probably going to have teams that can offer him more minutes, and that's likely why that's a non-starter. But my point would be, hell no, we can't just dance and enjoy the romance of the moment, assuming there is any to be had. We've got to be on the watch for a better dance partner, and ready to pounce.

[AHF]

22 minutes ago, kg01 said:

Midrange'd 'em to death.  I'm ok with us guttin' teams. 

Let's see how it plays out.  The teams that tried to midrange themselves into contention have become dinosaurs in this era.  The championship teams have been top 10 teams in 3pt shots made:

2021-22 #3 in 3pt FGM

2020-21 #5 in 3pt FGM

2019-20 #23 in 3pt FGM (the outlier)

2018-19 #8 in 3pt FGM

2017-18 #8 in 3pt FGM

2016-17 #4 in 3pt FGM

2015-16 #2 in 3pt FGM

2014-15 #2 in 3pt FGM

2013-14 #12 in 3pt FGM

2012-13 #3 in 3pt FGM

Avg Finish:  #7 in 3pt FGM

 

The league is offensively MUCH more efficient than in the last era where championship teams were regularly relying on the midrange shot and that is largely because of the 3pt shot.  That isn't to say we need to be all about the 3, we clearly don't.  But I also don't think we can ignore it in this era and pretend like we are walking down a path that has been particularly successful.

Let's take good shots where they present themselves on the floor, move the ball well, and I think we'll end up doing nicely in overall offensive efficiency and just fine in 3pt FGM.

[sturt]

Just now, AHF said:

Let's take good shots where they present themselves on the floor, move the ball well, and I think we'll end up doing nicely in overall offensive efficiency and just fine in 3pt FGM.

If that's not verbatim what McM said last night after the game, it's mighty close.

 

[shakes]

2 hours ago, JayBirdHawk said:

.

It was funny watching the Sengun guy try to back down OO - he was a rock, couldn't be moved.

Did we watch the same game?   Senguin made OO look like a turnstyle in the post.

[AHF]

17 minutes ago, sturt said:

 

Mmmhmmm... mmmhmmm... yep. Been my concern all along, as probably yours as well.

Wasn't really proposing so much as I was just supporting the point I was making... this visual pops up as I say that...

 

JDay can't be expected to cut it. *sly smile*

Maybe he will.

But it's not a smart bet.

And he's a rotation guy (for now), so it matters a little more.

We can only hope that AJ rises to the occasion within the first month or two to become the weapon we need there.

 

Again. Again. Again.

I don't mind JDay in the third unit.

But if AJ doesn't rise to the occasion, and if JDay doesn't make me eat crow, our options are two guys who are on minimum contracts and a third who is a two-way... and to Maryland's point, none of which, not even AJ, would qualify for that locker room glue, gritty, dirty job vet role. (Indeed, I'd even contest that Justin's a locker room glue guy, but he's not a gritty, not a dirty job vet.)

So nah, we need to stop lying to ourselves as a fan base as-if "problem solved, we have Justin."

He's just not that guy.

We need, rather to hope for the best, but prepare for the worst (... made that up all by myself). We need to, in reality, strongly consider a Derrick Favors who is that guy in every respect. But I figure Derrick's probably going to have teams that can offer him more minutes, and that's likely why that's a non-starter. But my point would be, hell no, we can't just dance and enjoy the romance of the moment, assuming there is any to be had. We've got to be on the watch for a better dance partner, and ready to pounce.

I think you are going to be nashing your teeth all season as Nate has JH in his second 5.  If you think he will be marginalized and end up with the 11th to 15th most minutes on the roster, then I believe you are going to be very disappointed.  

It was several years ago but JH got the 3rd most minutes for Nate and then the 2nd and 4th most minutes the last two years.  Expecting him to drop down to 11-15 when Nate trusts him is a big expectation, imo.

I don't disagree with your assessment on how good he is.  Just how big of a role he is likely to play.

[shakes]

Put me in the club that says midget Holiday is terrible and should never see the floor ahead of Griffin.  

[marco102]

12 minutes ago, AHF said:

Let's see how it plays out.  The teams that tried to midrange themselves into contention have become dinosaurs in this era.  The championship teams have been top 10 teams in 3pt shots made:

2021-22 #3 in 3pt FGM

2020-21 #5 in 3pt FGM

2019-20 #23 in 3pt FGM (the outlier)

2018-19 #8 in 3pt FGM

2017-18 #8 in 3pt FGM

2016-17 #4 in 3pt FGM

2015-16 #2 in 3pt FGM

2014-15 #2 in 3pt FGM

2013-14 #12 in 3pt FGM

2012-13 #3 in 3pt FGM

Avg Finish:  #7 in 3pt FGM

 

The league is offensively MUCH more efficient than in the last era where championship teams were regularly relying on the midrange shot and that is largely because of the 3pt shot.  That isn't to say we need to be all about the 3, we clearly don't.  But I also don't think we can ignore it in this era and pretend like we are walking down a path that has been particularly successful.

Let's take good shots where they present themselves on the floor, move the ball well, and I think we'll end up doing nicely in overall offensive efficiency and just fine in 3pt FGM.

Could you pull up the stats of how teams in playoff perform?  I know GS goes to more of a midrange game during the playoffs. 

 

[sturt]

17 minutes ago, AHF said:

I think you are going to be nashing your teeth all season as Nate has JH in his second 5.  If you think he will be marginalized and end up with the 11th to 15th most minutes on the roster, then I believe you are going to be very disappointed.  

It was several years ago but JH got the 3rd most minutes for Nate and then the 2nd and 4th most minutes the last two years.  Expecting him to drop down to 11-15 when Nate trusts him is a big expectation, imo.

I don't disagree with your assessment on how good he is.  Just how big of a role he is likely to play.

Let's start with where we agree.... "how good he is"... I'm always excited to see agreement/progress.

But I think you are going to be wondering how your assumption... ie, that Nate has this big slobbering affection for JDay... got spun up into factoid status.

 

Note, there is routinely a correlation between minutes that a head coach... any head coach... plays Player X... and... Player X's performance. Bet we agree on that, no?

So. JDay had his best season as a pro at age 30-ish in McM's last season in IND.

And we're supposed to take that as evidence on its own of this great affection for JDay?

 

I've challenged you to produce some direct evidence of this affection you allege. Maybe I missed it... I don't read everything... but the most I saw was someone else rising to your defense citing the fact that JDay was merely in the rotation as reason we should embrace your assumption as fact.

But as I said... and I must have received about a dozen likes for this comment afterward, surely, because we have such an intelligent bunch gathered here in the church of Hawkdom... no, that just means he's in the rotation. That's all it means. It means the head coach has no better option, and it's true, for now anyway, he does not.

 

I don't know how you've gotten this in your head that Justin is so highly admired that it doesn't even really matter that he's not actually that good of an asset but McM is going to play him just because.

I believe McM is going to play who ever he plays because he thinks it is likely to help the team win, increase his own W/L%, and give himself a greater chance at reaching the pinnacle, ie, being one of the few HCs who get to wear a ring. Period.

For now, that means playing JDay. But I'm persuaded McM will be more than happy to accept an upgrade.

[AHF]

7 minutes ago, marco102 said:

Could you pull up the stats of how teams in playoff perform?  I know GS goes to more of a midrange game during the playoffs. 

 

It becomes more apples to oranges among playoff teams since they play different numbers of games and teams that are losing will shift increasingly to 3's to make up for their losing deficit.  But here are GS's numbers on a per game basis (they are higher on a total basis):

2022 GS #2 in 3pt FGM/gm

2019 GS #3 in 3pt FGM/gm

2018 GS #2 in 3pt FGM/gm

2017 GS #3 in 3pt FGM/gm

2016 GS #1 in 3pt FGM/gm

2015 GS #1 in 3pt FGM/gm

 

So they remain very high in the # of 3's made relative to other teams.

[Spud2nique]

3 hours ago, JayBirdHawk said:

OO - he was a rock, couldn't be moved.

[AHF]

2 minutes ago, sturt said:

Let's start with where we agree.... "how good he is"... I'm always excited to see agreement/progress.

But I think you are going to be wondering how your assumption... ie, that Nate has this big slobbering affection for JDay... got spun up into factoid status.

 

Note, there is routinely a correlation between minutes that a head coach... any head coach... plays Player X... and... Player X's performance. Bet we agree on that, no?

So. JDay had his best season as a pro at age 30-ish in McM's last season in IND.

And we're supposed to take that as evidence on its own of this great affection for JDay?

 

I've challenged you to produce some direct evidence of this affection you allege. Maybe I missed it... I don't read everything... but the most I saw was someone else rising to your defense citing the fact that JDay was merely in the rotation as reason we should embrace your assumption as fact.

But as I said... and I must have received about a dozen likes for this comment afterward, surely, because we have such an intelligent bunch gathered here in the church of Hawkdom... no, that just means he's in the rotation. That's all it means. It means the head coach has no better option, and it's true, for now anyway, he does not.

 

I don't know how you've gotten this in your head that Justin is so highly admired that it doesn't even really matter that he's not actually that good of an asset but McM is going to play him just because.

I believe McM is going to play who ever he plays because he thinks it is likely to help the team win, increase his own W/L%, and give himself a greater chance at reaching the pinnacle, ie, being one of the few HCs who get to wear a ring. Period.

For now, that means playing JDay. But I'm persuaded McM will be more than happy to accept an upgrade.

We've already got a bet on JJ.

How about a bet on JDay.  If he finishes the season with #11-15 most minutes on the team, you get to control my avatar for 2 months (or an additional 2 months for when you win the JJ bet).  If he finishes the season with #10 or better in total minutes, I control your avatar for 2 weeks.

[sturt]

Just now, AHF said:

We've already got a bet on JJ.

How about a bet on JDay.  If he finishes the season with #11-15 most minutes on the team, you get to control my avatar for 2 months (or an additional 2 months for when you win the JJ bet).  If he finishes the season with #10 or better in total minutes, I control your avatar for 2 weeks.

Absolutely not. You're holding out on me. You are not an illogical person. What do you know that I don't know? Spill it. C'mon. Do it. I keep asking you for this evidence that backs up that your assumption isn't just assumption, and you keep avoiding going there. Let me hear that, then I'll consider your bet.

[Spud2nique]

2 hours ago, bleachkit said:

Not to be too dismissive of last night. But a rebuilding Houston team was basically in the game up until the very end. Let's see how we fare against Milwaukee and Toronto on the road next week. 

Each game is independent of another. 

[AHF]

1 minute ago, sturt said:

Absolutely not. You're holding out on me. You are not an illogical person. What do you know that I don't know? Spill it. C'mon. Do it. I keep asking you for this evidence that backs up that your assumption isn't just assumption, and you keep avoiding going there. Let me hear that, then I'll consider your bet.

It is my assumption.  I think  TS/LF traded for JH in large part to set the team up to go under the tax line and they traded for JH specifically because Nate has coached him in the past and trusts him to know what he is doing on the floor.

Coaches generally seem to have trusted JH to play a big role in their rotation in recent years and the fact that we traded for him and then went out and signed his brother strengthen that conviction for me.

So I see Nate as a coach who likes a low maintenance vet and JH fits that role to a T (even if he isn't a great player).

[JayBirdHawk]

36 minutes ago, shakes said:

Did we watch the same game?   Senguin made OO look like a turnstyle in the post.

I know what I saw - Sengun got him on a baseline spin move.  My 14 year old yelled 'never let him go to the baseline'

[Spud2nique]

I have my 👁 on Crowder (who is an upgrade over JHol, having said that, JHol has that 3 stroke as is a quiet role model).

I have my eye on Favors.

Look, like kg mentioned in a post and I agree that rebounding is our strength, we got Cap OO JC, why not add the perfect piece in mentoring and everything else in Favors? He’s a great fit, plus he’s a Tech guy and @kg01 prolly has his tech jersey in the back of the closet somewhere.

[marco102]

3 minutes ago, Spud2nique said:

I have my 👁 on Crowder (who is an upgrade over JHol, having said that, JHol has that 3 stroke as is a quiet role model).

I have my eye on Favors.

Look, like kg mentioned in a post and I agree that rebounding is our strength, we got Cap OO JC, why not add the perfect piece in mentoring and everything else in Favors? He’s a great fit, plus he’s a Tech guy and @kg01 prolly has his tech jersey in the back of the closet somewhere.

Because he's been garbage lately? 

Edited October 20, 2022 by marco102