Official Game Thread: Rockets at Hawks -- The Season Opener!

[HawkingAwesome]

uh oh magic tonight 

[AHF]

16 hours ago, sturt said:

So, let me get this straight. You imagine that there were all these other deals on the table that would have rendered a #1 pick, and Schleilds took the SAC option because McM told them "take the deal where I get Justin Holiday."

I don't know how many other deals were on the table. I'm inclined to think, not many, but okay.

I do suspect that Nate trusts him, but as said already, that goes with having played well for Nate... his career best season.

I do not suspect that that puts blinders on Nate's eyes if three years later at 33 years old, Justin's performance no longer justifies said trust.

 

Have you studied whether "coaches" had any better options at the wing? Shouldn't that have come into your calculus? You keep talking about "trust" as-if there is no necessary connection between trust and performance. What's up with that? Dunno.

That they signed his brother... (1) at the minimum... (2) needing a 3rd PG who can be a reasonable fill-in for the first two... (3) who's proven to be a reliable 37% shot from the arc... and (4) has played for McM... I credit those factors. What the relevance might be to obtaining Justin? Dunno.

 

Absolutely. McM has spoken on occasion about how a roster has to have sufficient low maintenance players in order to deal with the outliers.

But. What is this scarcity for low maintenance players that you perceive, that you have to put up with a lagging performer in order to have low maintenance? Dunno.

 

I don't know if it's my fault that you've spun yourself into this vision of Nate's bromance with Justin... it does seem to happen sometimes that when I zag, others just have a tendency to zig... just some contrarian vibe out there that seems to arise on occasion.

 

If I were trying to make your argument for you, I would have cited maybe 3 posts before this about Nate's apparent bromance with Solomon Hill. And I really think that's the model... someone Nate's familiar with... not necessarily someone who is going to be some great productive asset, but someone who can play a couple of positions if not three if it became necessary, and be adequate... not a high ceiling, but not a low floor either... not a lotta highlight clips, but not a lotta major mistakes made... generally healthy and generally reliable... not necessarily a "rotation" guy so much as a "utility" guy, there when you need him if you need him, and just by the nature of the long season, it's not all that rare that you do.

 

Again. Again. Again. Again.

I'm fine with that from a guy with 2 players in front of him on the depth chart at whatever positions he played... ie, just as Solomon had (Hunter and Reddish @ SF, Huerter and BogBog @ SG, and Collins and Gallo @ PF).

I'm not fine with that guy as part of the planned rotation. No one should be.

 

If you're part of Hawks management, and you have no better choice, then you have no better choice... but you should absolutely be looking for a better choice... in this case, hoping that AJ Griffin is the real deal, and the issue gets solved internally.

 

So now that I've learned that you don't know anything I don't know, I'm more open, but this doesn't fit the difference of opinion. If no better option arises than JDay, then no better option arises.

What I'm asserting is, we need a better option... and/but even if management agreed with that, and were pursuing other options, we'll never know about it unless it actually were to happen... a lot of trades we might propose, and a lot of trades others might propose, but if the deal never gets made, it's at-best just rumor if it even gets to that level.

And what I'm asserting is, if a better option emerges, JDay will sit down... he won't be kept in the rotation just because of some presumptive exclusive trust that Nate holds for him, which is what I hear you saying.

How do you put some metrics to that? Dunno. But if you come up with something, I'll listen.

 

Again again again if you believe any of this take my bet which I loaded in your direction.  I absolutely believe JH will be in our second 5 players in total minutes this year.  You don't think that is likely to happen either because JDay gets traded or obsoleted.  Should be an easy win for you with very little downside since I give up my avatar for 2 months but you only give yours up for 2 weeks.

If you won't take that bet, you don't have anywhere near the confidence that things will play out the way you envision compared to what comes across in your posts.

[Spud2nique]

4 minutes ago, AHF said:

If you won't take that bet, you don't have anywhere near the confidence that things will play out the way you envision compared to what comes across in your posts.

[Atlantaholic]

2 hours ago, HawkingAwesome said:

uh oh magic tonight 

Rook was cookin' in game 1. Will be interesting to see how Hawks (I'm guessing mostly Dre) defend him.

[sturt]

3 hours ago, AHF said:

Again again again if you believe any of this take my bet which I loaded in your direction. 

Again again...

So now that I've learned that you don't know anything I don't know, I'm more open, but this doesn't fit the difference of opinion. If no better option arises than JDay, then no better option arises.

EDIT: I'm pretty sure I don't have to explain but I will anyway since I got the response above... the metrics you've proposed focus on what will happen, and in so doing don't even address your core conviction, ie, that there is so much of an affection for Justin Holiday that the head coach will play him even if there's a better option that could be obtained or could be elevated from among those on the roster anyhow.

I don't pretend to know what will happen. I don't pretend to know--and no one should--that I/we do or will have insight into other options that could be brought-in.

There is some possibility, as already discussed, that AJ Griffin could ascend the ladder, but even there, until it would actually occur that AJ replaces JDay in the rotation, we have no insight into how management thinks about JDay's progress. That is, unless/until AJ performs so exceptionally and in such contrast to JDay's lack of productivity that it would become commonly accepted that, indeed, AJ's being kept from advancing for reasons that can only be attributed to this Nate/Justin bromance you've assumed to the point of near factoid status.
 

What I'm asserting is, we need a better option... and/but even if management agreed with that, and were pursuing other options, we'll never know about it unless it actually were to happen... a lot of trades we might propose, and a lot of trades others might propose, but if the deal never gets made, it's at-best just rumor if it even gets to that level.

And what I'm asserting is, if a better option emerges, JDay will sit down... he won't be kept in the rotation just because of some presumptive exclusive trust that Nate holds for him, which is what I hear you saying.

How do you put some metrics to that? Dunno. But if you come up with something, I'll listen.

[macdaddy]

Jumping in here.   Make a bet on whether JDay falls out of the 9 man rotation if the roster stays the same.   If a trade is made then bet is over but up until that point I'd bet that Holiday stays in the rotation on the current team.   @sturt If you think he's in rapid decline and Nate has no particular affinity for him then he'll fall out of the rotation right?

[sturt]

2 hours ago, macdaddy said:

Jumping in here.   Make a bet on whether JDay falls out of the 9 man rotation if the roster stays the same.   If a trade is made then bet is over but up until that point I'd bet that Holiday stays in the rotation on the current team.   @sturt If you think he's in rapid decline and Nate has no particular affinity for him then he'll fall out of the rotation right?

Appreciate the effort, but if JDay remains the best option on the roster... ie, AJ (or for that matter, Martin or Krecji or Culver) doesn't emerge to overtake JDay, then that's the other part of that equation that isn't appropriately taken into account in that version of a bet.

 

"If you think he's in rapid decline"

This troubles me. If "I think"... ?!?!?

Now c'mon. Why has this been so hard for people to go beyond, "Oh that's just sturt being hyper critical," to "Damn, now that I give it a closer look, there's definitely something going on there that isn't good?" How does one want to be objective and yet not conclude that he's "in rapid decline," or similar words to that effect?

The best one can possibly argue with any validity is that it has happened, though rarely, that an NBA player well beyond the age 30 milestone somehow manages a bounce back season in spite of the clear trend.

JDay's regressed from the arc (though to be fair, still a legit weapon in that way), which is most of what he does for you offensively...

He's significantly been in free fall defensively in the two seasons since his pinnacle season 2019-2020 at age 30.

He gets brownie points for being a good guy. But that's all they are.

I want to eat crow on this, but my point here is that it seems there's remain too many of the Squawker crowd more likely to eat crow based on their agnosticism.

What will happen remains in doubt, as it does for any player. What is highly likely to happen if one gives proper respect to trends/history is not in doubt, even as some wish it to be that way.

[macdaddy]

47 minutes ago, sturt said:

Appreciate the effort, but if JDay remains the best option on the roster... ie, AJ (or for that matter, Martin or Krecji or Culver) doesn't emerge to overtake JDay, then that's the other part of that equation that isn't appropriately taken into account in that version of a bet.

 

"If you think he's in rapid decline"

This troubles me. If "I think"... ?!?!?

Now c'mon. Why has this been so hard for people to go beyond, "Oh that's just sturt being hyper critical," to "Damn, now that I give it a closer look, there's definitely something going on there that isn't good?" How does one want to be objective and yet not conclude that he's "in rapid decline," or similar words to that effect?

The best one can possibly argue with any validity is that it has happened, though rarely, that an NBA player well beyond the age 30 milestone somehow manages a bounce back season in spite of the clear trend.

JDay's regressed from the arc (though to be fair, still a legit weapon in that way), which is most of what he does for you offensively...

He's significantly been in free fall defensively in the two seasons since his pinnacle season 2019-2020 at age 30.

He gets brownie points for being a good guy. But that's all they are. I want to eat crow on this, but my point here is that it seems there's remain too many of the Squawker crowd more likely to eat crow based on their agnosticism. What will happen remains in doubt, as it does for any player. What is highly likely to happen if one gives proper respect to trends/history is not in doubt, even as some wish it to be that way.

Come on.  This is just avoidance.  If you really believe that he's "significantly been in free fall" then how possibly could he be the best option.  And if he's not the best option then why would Nate play him?

[JayBirdHawk]

11 minutes ago, macdaddy said:

Come on.  This is just avoidance.  If you really believe that he's "significantly been in free fall" then how possibly could he be the best option.  And if he's not the best option then why would Nate play him?

I'm sure right about now you wished you hadn't jumped into the deep end. 

[sturt]

14 minutes ago, macdaddy said:

This is just avoidance.  If you really believe that he's "significantly been in free fall" then how possibly could he be the best option. 

What? Back at ya.

I'd grant you the perspective if, in fact, there was some proven NBA option on the team.

You know this.

Why accuse me of avoidance when you have two rookies and a player who couldn't even be regarded as worthy of a 15-man roster slot on a developmental team... oh and a little worse yet, a player who couldn't even be regarded as worthy of a 15-man roster slot on any team period... and of the two rookies, one is a first round pick; so surely he will eventually overtake a vet in free fall, and yet, we also know that he's come into the league with most of the question marks that slid him down to us being his defense and his health. I repeat.... his defense.

You're paying ADay $5m, by the way. That's going to matter if all of the options seem about as good as the other, too.

This is getting ridiculous. No. This has been ridiculous. I'm not saying anything that is somehow complex or mysterious.

[sturt]

13 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

I'm sure right about now you wished you hadn't jumped into the deep end. 

He gets credit for effort.

Not sure which is worse... acting like one is testifying under penalty of perjury and avoiding engaging the actual question under consideration, dancing/deflecting to some other different question... or doing the transference thing where one accuses another person of the very avoidance that s/he is performing, and worse, under the guise that s/he doesn't understand the obvious other factors in-play.

But it's Friday. Who can get their knickers in a wad on Friday?

Not me.

 

[JayBirdHawk]

9 minutes ago, sturt said:

But it's Friday. Who can get their knickers in a wad on Friday?

Me right now 

[sturt]

Yeah. Probably the former. The smug "I'm above it all" as-if there's... hehe.. something to actually be above in the first place. That clinches it. Thanks for helping resolve that question at least.

[AHF]

I don’t know what to say.  I am offering a bet on what will happen.  There is uncertainty there.  I think he will get the minutes even if his performance isn’t great so I’m not betting on his performance because it is the role / minutes that I’m confident in - not how high he rates on a performance metric.

You keep trying to trade him and tell me all the reasons he will lose his spot in the rotation but won’t bet on whether that will actually happen.

Don’t know what else to tell you except I have confidence on this issue just like I did the fact that we would get under the tax line.  It is my assumption but I’m willing to say what I think will actually happen.

[sturt]

8 hours ago, AHF said:

I don’t know what to say.  I am offering a bet on what will happen.

 

11 hours ago, sturt said:

And what I'm asserting is, if a better option emerges, JDay will sit down... he won't be kept in the rotation just because of some presumptive exclusive trust that Nate holds for him, which is what I hear you saying.

How do you put some metrics to that? Dunno. But if you come up with something, I'll listen.

 

8 hours ago, AHF said:

You keep trying to trade him and tell me all the reasons he will should/needs to lose his spot in the rotation but won’t bet on whether that will actually happen.

You keep trying to ignore the other part of the equation, as macdaddy has above... but how do I know if AJ will develop well enough to be an objectively better option?

I'm confident only in the history that says there's an exceptionally strong likelihood that ADay will continue to regress as is common as one gets further into his 30s.

I'm not confident that AJ's defense will be considered, nonetheless, to be good enough.

I'm certainly not confident that any of the other options... ie, the 2nd round pick, nor the player who couldn't stick on a roster that is all about development, nor the two-way who is trying to turn his career around... will be good enough.

Just because those options aren't compelling, doesn't negate that the $5m 33 yr old vet is only getting minutes because he's a vet being paid $5m.

How is this so hard to figure out. I don't like repeating myself. No one here is a kid that anything I've said is so complicated it needs repeating... nay... so complicated that it shouldn't already have been concluded without any comment from muah.

8 hours ago, AHF said:

I’m willing to say what I think will actually happen.

Kudos to you. You're just trying to do the right thing, aren't you, but you're just not getting any cooperation.

AHF, how does it avoid your intelligence to realize your stated bet is irrelevant to the difference in our opinions by virtue of the fact that it is simplistic and doesn't account for all of the independent variables in-play. You're only accounting for one part of the equation, and because you're only accounting for that one, you're leaving open all these other factors... very very common sense factors... that could impact the outcome.

I'll try one more time, but only because I'm such a nice guy... ... the question is this... specifically... does Nate McMillan have such a strong affection for Justin Holiday that he will continue to keep Justin Holiday in the rotation in spite of there emerging an objectively better option.

Your position is "yea"... yes, he'll do that... my position is "nay'... no he will not.

So to get to a rational bet, we would have to determine a metric that would account not only for  the performance of Justin himself... but the performance level of every other option on the roster seen through the head coach's eyes (who we know isn't one to rush younger players into the rotation generally speaking) ... and plus, if none of the other roster options eclipse the performance level of Justin, we would need to have insight into what other non-roster options that the front office has or is exploring.

Put another way... and I know you know this, given the degree of education you've had... In the world of research methods, there is what is called a Type I (false negative) and a Type II error (false positive)... there is what is called internal validity, which is the degree to which a given research design/methodology actually measures/renders conclusions to the question it proposes... what you've proposed can be equated to a research proposal, and/but the measuring stick embedded in your proposed research design--aka "bet" as currently written--does not actually capture all of the information necessary to answer the question... there are significant holes, as I've demonstrated. There are other very plausible reasons that do not align with this bromance theory of yours that could explain why ADay continues to be part of the rotation. A legit bet has to eliminate those other possibilities.

You're a good guy.

But I'm right on this.

You can keep challenging me, as-if you're Wyatt Earp, and I'm some outlaw at the OK Corral. But your challenges aren't even engaging the reason/logic I've laid out... if anything, you've danced around and avoided it, instead, just repeating your challenges as-if that allows you some higher ground.

It does not.

And alas, I've got a 4 hour drive ahead of me... so this is where I have to press pause, if not tap out if I don't see some new concept proposed, one for which the internal validity and the elimination of Type I and Type II errors is stout.

 

[AHF]

Sorry.  If you don't believe that JH won't remain a key part of our rotation that is really the end of it for me.  If you don't believe that, then we agree that it is more likely than not that he won't be traded and he will retain his role so there is nothing to bet on. 

There are no metrics other than actual playing time that make sense for this.  I am not going to propose a productivity number because it doesn't matter if he deserves the minutes or not.  Both of us agree that he could continue his downward trend of the last two years.  I just don't think it will matter if he does because I still think he will be part of the 6-10. 

You lack the confidence to bet on what will happen and that is what I'm confident in.  Putting together a bet on what should happen but may not actually happen is a fool's errand for me since I'm not a big believer in Holiday's game.  I'm a believer in the role he will play for this team.  You see that difference right?  You have been outspoken about all the ways he could lose that role and that you believe he should lose that role.  What will actually happen with the rotation is what we disagree on.  That is the only thing it makes sense to bet on.

Just think about what you are asking for and how stupid I would have to be to engage on that.  When Nate coached JH in Indiana, JH had the third most minutes played on the team.  But he was 11th in PER.  My prediction would be 100% true if that repeated this year but I would lose the bet if we used PER.  Last year JH was 8th in minutes per game in Sacramento but 20th in PER.  In 2020-21, JH was 2nd in minutes for Indiana and 16th in PER.

The story of JH's career is that he plays a major role in a team's rotation but often has terrible metrics.  That is the exact scenario where we disagree because I think JH might be good or he might be bad but he will remain in a major spot in the rotation (6-10) regardless.  Why in the world would I put together a bet on a completely different subject like whether he or AJ will put up better advanced metrics?

Again, again, again...the offer is about what role JH will actually play and not coming up with some method of determining what role he should  play in some hypothetical world that may not have anything to do with our real rotation.  I am asking to bet on reality not hypotheticals.  If JH balls out and has an amazing year, I win.  If he stinks this year but still plays a ton of minutes, I win.  If he gets trade or pushed out of the rotation or goes down with injury, etc. I lose.  Reality of playing time is the only meaningful metric given that the area of disagreement for us is not about whether he could be outplayed under some chosen metric by someone who gets less minutes than him but about how many minutes he will actually play.

[JayBirdHawk]

All this for JHoli....Love it 

[sturt]

6 hours ago, AHF said:

There are no metrics other than actual playing time that make sense for this. 

None.

 

Playing time addresses a single part of a much larger equation.

No one can logically eliminate the other viable options that would explain JDay remaining in the rotation, ie, short of having hidden cameras and secret mics and some great tech hackers working to give you/me/us all insight necessary to determine the rationale that the head coach holds as well as that of those who make the roster decisions. And actually, that might not even be sufficient. Might have to resort to hypnosis or truth serum so we could dig it out of their brains.

 

It's not possible to assess in any scientifically valid way.

 

6 hours ago, JayBirdHawk said:

All this for JHoli....Love it

Not sure he is (... ie, loving it). I take no pleasure in calling attention to the emperor's lack of clothing. Justin's a good guy.

Mind you, all of this conversation owes to the fact that AHF doesn't make stuff up, to his credit... he didn't quote Nate as saying, "Justin is my security blanket. I simply can't imagine not having him in my rotation" or words to that effect.

Because?

Because AHF tries to be honest as far as I've ever known, and because Nate didn't say that....

And yet, it's because AHF had to acknowledge his vision is practically completely rooted in assumption that he's become fervent to try to save face by making up some way of dignifying his assumption...

So what does he do?

He offers a bet... a bet that he tries to sell as being a valid determination of the question... however, unfortunately for AHF's purposes, it wouldn't actually measure the degree of Nate's affection for JDay... it would measure, rather, the degree to which Nate considers JDay his best option... but the problem is that most head coaches, like Nate, are inclined to decide best option based on multiple factors, and rarely do they ever reveal all of their thinking on any given situation.

 

Tapping out.

[Final_quest]

Dang.  Last night it looked like Holiday moving from a starter to a reserve could actually work out.  Granted you have to ignore that his former team's defensive free fall took place and one stat showed that he went from slightly above the line to slightly below the line. 

You may want to look at a lot of his other stats that don't show much decline, and then consider he's going from 30 minutes a game against starters to 16 minutes a game against reserves so a lot of performance and expectations will change anyways.  Carry on.  

[sturt]

1 hour ago, Final_quest said:

Dang.  Last night it looked like Holiday moving from a starter to a reserve could actually work out.  Granted you have to ignore that his former team's defensive free fall took place and one stat showed that he went from slightly above the line to slightly below the line. 

You may want to look at a lot of his other stats that don't show much decline, and then consider he's going from 30 minutes a game against starters to 16 minutes a game against reserves so a lot of performance and expectations will change anyways.  Carry on.  

I get it that I've made myself a target now for every game where something Justin did can be construed as a positive, someone like Quest is going to come back here to beat his/her chest as-if that's somehow going to disappoint me.

But of course, it's a misnomer to pretend that I haven't made clear these two things... crystal... clear...

1. The likelihood is the likelihood... the trend is the trend... it's one of those facts don't care about your feelings things... it just is.

And I've had to have said it 18 times by now...

2. I'm a Hawks fan, I'm a fan of good guys.... Justin is a Hawk and he's a good guy... I want him to make me eat crow for having pointed out the likelihood... I want the likelihood to be wrong.

And I have to say, talking about the trend in those terms, Quest, conveys a lack of appreciation for what individual DRTG means when put in the context of team DRTG when put in the context of comparison with team DRTG league-wide. My friend, there's just too many data points when a player has played 1000+ minutes for one to somehow twist and minimize the stat into being relatively unimportant. A player can help his team's DRTG, or be a participant in its downfall. The nimbers, not me, say Justin was a participant. It's not anecdotal opinion. No one's making it up. It just is.

Have some intellectual humility/honesty please. Or don't, but then live with some disregard for your opinions since you're only interested in a more limited set of conclusions, not necessarily what is what.

And, too, circling back to the point of your post... live with the disappointment of knowing that Justin's success, as often as he has it in an ATL uni, will never disappoint me. The easiest way to solve the problem is for Justin to simply be better.