Official Game Thread: Hawks at Rockets

[JeffS17]

1 minute ago, kg01 said:

Nah man, we've seen the delayed trap before.  The success they had was our refusal to do basic a** stuff.  Like, if you see your man drift towards trapping Trae ... maybe position yourself to be an outlet.  Duh, that's 5th grade basketball stuff.

Trae's handles and ability to dribble his way out of just about any coverage gives our team too much comfort when he starts getting doubled.  It's like we're out there expecting it to be a soft trap or show and drop every time.  Our players get stunned by hard doubles

[JayBirdHawk]

2 hours ago, TheNorthCydeRises said:

+/- is a player/team lineup metric.

Capela was ( -14 ) in his last 2 times on the floor last night.  Hawks closed the 2nd quarter poorly, then began the 3rd quarter poorly.

So although he may have done some good things in that 2nd quarter, his presence on the floor in the 3rd quarter killed him.

Meanwhile, Okongwu was ( +9 ) in the 4th quarter alone, and a big reason why we made that run.   I'm glad that Quin finally kept a group in a game that was working, and gave them extended minutes.

 

But that is also a function of who he's on the floor with as well. 

[Diesel]

If I just happens to be on the floor when somebody let's say Mathews Hits 4 3s in a row and gives us a 10 point lead over the other team's reserves...

my +/- is automatically going to go up. 

What does that say about my play?

Wasn't I just in the right place at the right time?

But according to @TheNorthCydeRises it means that when you put me and Mathews on the floor together, we're stronger than Trae and Capela. 

GTFOH.

 

[JeffS17]

Just now, Diesel said:

If I just happens to be on the floor when somebody let's say Mathews Hits 4 3s in a row and gives us a 10 point lead over the other team's reserves...

my +/- is automatically going to go up. 

What does that say about my play?

Wasn't I just in the right place at the right time?

But according to @TheNorthCydeRises it means that when you put me and Mathews on the floor together, we're stronger than Trae and Capela. 

GTFOH.

 

You're correct for single games, although sometimes it's not a bad proxy for guys with high minutes and usage.  I do think there is value to looking at +/- over big sets of games, although there are just better advanced metrics anyways.

[Diesel]

2 minutes ago, JeffS17 said:

Trae's handles and ability to dribble his way out of just about any coverage gives our team too much comfort when he starts getting doubled.  It's like we're out there expecting it to be a soft trap or show and drop every time.  Our players get stunned by hard doubles

I do question the BBIQ and really the DOG in most of our players. 

For the longest, I have been questioning why does Quinn play Matthews?  Does he have pictures?  Does he have a Teague like story that Snyder doesn't want getting out?  What is it?

Well, last night, I watched him play carefully and I figured it out.   He rebounds. 

This little bitty 6'5" 37 year old man... will go after the rebound.

You say "Diesel, that's nothing".  I saw go back and watch the tape and see what I saw.   Our younger players have a bad habit of just watching the ball.  Capela and Matthews don't watch the ball.. they move to the position where the ball is falling and put forth effort to get it.   I watched Dre, OO, and I believe it was Trae on the floor with Matthews and all of them were watching the long rebound come off the rim... but only Matthews went to the ball.   This happened twice.   Both times, those other guys were just watching. 

So.. I don't know.. it's got to be trained in them to just react... not to think.. but react.  When you see a trap developing, react.   When you see the ball coming off the rim... react. 

 

[AHF]

8 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

But that is also a function of who he's on the floor with as well. 

I think that is what North is trying to say.  It speaks to the success the group on the floor has and so gives you information about certain pairings against certain opposing lineups.  

I don't think he is saying that it speaks to individuals.  Unless I'm misreading he isn't saying that someone with a +/- that is positive did a good job and someone with a negative one did a bad job.  Just that, for example, the lineup was highly negative when it had a certain group of players who maybe have defensive holes or lack range or balance or when we didn't have a playmaker, etc. or perhaps highly positive when the lineup had strong rebounding or shooting threats across the floor, etc.

[JayBirdHawk]

26 minutes ago, Diesel said:

.. like before the half of last night's game... Trae had already calculated where OO was supposed to be and made the pass to the spot but nobody told OO.  We have one of those real life magicians like Magic, Stockton, Nash and Kidd.... And Trae may be better than all of them. 

 

I saw that, Trae telling OO to cut across to the opposite side of the lane.

7 minutes ago, Diesel said:

I don't disagree.  We've seen the delayed trap when we played Boston with Ume... and when we played Miami in the Playoffs and Playin.   However, we don't see it enough to say that whenever a team runs it, we know exactly what to do.. especially not in Quin's system.   Nobody has run one on us this year.... Maybe NY in the first game we played... but not much. 

 

It's their inability to see what it is quickly. Like Trae said they need to become better at certain things. 

Up next tomorrow night is the hated heat. @kg01 fave . 

You know they will try to stop Trae's 30/10 streak. Expect traps and physicality like they've always done, and getting the ball out of Trae's hand - plan and prepare and execute.

And some throat punch Lowry. 

[Diesel]

5 minutes ago, JeffS17 said:

You're correct for single games, although sometimes it's not a bad proxy for guys with high minutes and usage.  I do think there is value to looking at +/- over big sets of games, although there are just better advanced metrics anyways.

Ok.. now you're speaking a good language...  So let's start here.

Quinn has rotations.. most coaches do. I have noticed that barring injury and fouls Quinn sticks to his rotations just as hard as Nate stuck to his.

If  we have a player like Bogi who is like Microwave Vinny Johnson.. and as soon as he hits the floor, he's going to start scoring and get you maybe 9 in a 6 minute spurt... and I'm on the floor with him for those 6 minutes... wouldn't that artificially inflate my +/- scores.  I mean, think about it.. one of our best +/- units is Bogi, Bey, and OO.   Why is that..  Bogi comes in on fire and usually he's subbed in with Bey and OO.   They are normally facing reserves and their spacing and Bogi's shooting makes them better than most reserves.   And even though OO is a great defender....  His defense vs. Reserves tend to be better than when he has faced starters.   Point is, these numbers are easily inflated. 

 

 

[Diesel]

5 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

I saw that, Trae telling OO to cut across to the opposite side of the lane.

It's their inability to see what it is quickly. Like Trae said they need to become better at certain things. 

Up next tomorrow night is the hated heat. @kg01 fave . 

You know they will try to stop Trae's 30/10 streak. Expect traps and physicality like they've always done, and getting the ball out of Trae's hand - plan and prepare and execute.

And some throat punch Lowry. 

Yeah... Tomorrow's Miami game will be interesting.  If Butler doesn't play it should be really interesting.   I have made the comment, if we beat Houston, then we're streaking.. So we're streaking.   The thing is I am concerned about Miami's 3 pt shooting.   They just blasted Orlando right out the game with a Spurt of good three point shooting from their bench.   We have guys who won't run shooters off the line and won't go over screens... so it's going to be interesting. 

 

[kg01]

35 minutes ago, Diesel said:

I don't disagree.  We've seen the delayed trap when we played Boston with Ume... and when we played Miami in the Playoffs and Playin.   However, we don't see it enough to say that whenever a team runs it, we know exactly what to do.. especially not in Quin's system.   Nobody has run one on us this year.... Maybe NY in the first game we played... but not much. 

 

No, sir, it's as @JeffS17 said.  Our players got too reliant on Trae instead of doing the basic thing to help.  The delayed trap is no stroke of genius.

I'm sorry, dies-o.  You just gotta be wrong on this one, mayne. 

[Chrimturn]

10 minutes ago, Diesel said:

I have made the comment, if we beat Houston, then we're streaking.. So we're streaking.

 

If they can get 4 out of these next 5 they’ll be rollin’.  Would be a huge boost going into January.

[Sothron]

2 hours ago, Spud2nique said:

First, the Hawks Mookie dime record of 23 went down, then Scotty Skiles 33 year old 30 dimes DOOOOWNED!!

@Sothron I think I got this level down, but seriously when you move up a level the computer won’t let you win. I’m stuck in between a level that I seem to have graduated from but the next one is mission impossible.  

you can manually adjust the sliders but All Star this year is messed up. stay on starter/pro and adjust as needed for higher difficulty if you need it. which it sounds like.

[Final_quest]

2 hours ago, Spud2nique said:

Nice Trae! I mean Ice Trae..  

Such rare air.  

[AHF]

57 minutes ago, Diesel said:

Ok.. now you're speaking a good language...  So let's start here.

Quinn has rotations.. most coaches do. I have noticed that barring injury and fouls Quinn sticks to his rotations just as hard as Nate stuck to his.

If  we have a player like Bogi who is like Microwave Vinny Johnson.. and as soon as he hits the floor, he's going to start scoring and get you maybe 9 in a 6 minute spurt... and I'm on the floor with him for those 6 minutes... wouldn't that artificially inflate my +/- scores.  I mean, think about it.. one of our best +/- units is Bogi, Bey, and OO.   Why is that..  Bogi comes in on fire and usually he's subbed in with Bey and OO.   They are normally facing reserves and their spacing and Bogi's shooting makes them better than most reserves.   And even though OO is a great defender....  His defense vs. Reserves tend to be better than when he has faced starters.   Point is, these numbers are easily inflated. 

 

 

This is the value of looking at this type of information.  If the idea is that the better spacing produces better results then it begs the question of whether you should try that type of spacing against starters or other lineups.  It is why some people have been saying that Bogi needs to be closing games.

The other thing you can do is look for patterns across all lineups involving a given player.  If a certain player seems to be negative across the board (or positive) you should start looking at how they are being used, what is happening when they aren't on the floor that is missing when they are on the floor or vice versa, etc. and see if there might be combinations that would yield better results.  

Context is king with +/- but that doesn't mean it can't be valuable.

[terrell]

4 hours ago, TheNorthCydeRises said:

 

Don't believe them when people dismiss +/-.

Plus/Minus tells a story from game to game, but most important, about lineup groupings.

This particular grouping has been ( - ) for the year.

What's more disturbing though, is that the Trae - Murray - Hunter grouping has been an even more ( - ) on the year.

Those 3 in particular, must find a way to mesh with each other on the court.

 

 

Not a surprise that one of our best 3-man lineups sees Trae surrounded by 2 confident 3 point shooters.  This makes Trae most lethal with the passing, when he's leading the 2nd unit.

 

 

Understanding numbers and how analytics tell a story, is a great thing.

Quick learners

Trae, Bogi, JJ

 

Slow bus riders

Murray, Dre, and Capela

[terrell]

Trae 4 rebounds

Dre 1 rebound.

Dre should stumble on 5 boards. 

[TheNorthCydeRises]

2 hours ago, Diesel said:

Not true...

 

So let's use this example from Miami vs Orlando night. 

When the starters logged most of their minutes, it was a back and forth game.  Miami reserves were better than Orlando reserves and developed a lead.  Miami starters came back in and nursed that lead but didn't extend it. 

So +/- makes it look like Miami starters are terrible.  Bam = -6.   18/7/2 on 46% shooting..  That's so terrible!!

Point is.. 

+/- is just a streak determiner...  Shouldn't be used to evaluate a player or a 3 man team.  Just tells you who was on the floor when the streak happened.   

Last night, Houston had a streak partially because of the ref's influence.  Missed call on one end and  an immediate B.S. call on Bogi for a flagrant... gives them a 8 point turnaround.   Had nothing to do with how well any one player was playing. 

 

 

 

So streaks can happen at any time, regardless of who is on the floor?

 

So what is happening with the Hawks lineups?  Why do certain lineups contain similar people, whether positive or negative on the floor?

 

 

We point out certain lineups all the time, that seem to have a positive impact, while others have a negative impact.

There's no correlation nor meaning behind these lineups?

It's just all "fake numbers"?

 

[Spud2nique]

2 hours ago, JayBirdHawk said:

Up next tomorrow night is the hated heat. @kg01 fave

We get baby But(t) and the sHeat?  Oh booooyyyy, maybe that’s the ️ I need, those lousy bastards from south beach usually light a into yours truly.  

OO transformed last night btw, THAT DUDE who made plays in the 4th, that’s who he was coming out and who I expected by last year at this time. I want more of that OO, bring it consistently baby you a lil big man freak with skills and agility LETS GOOOO!!!

[Spud2nique]

1 hour ago, Final_quest said:

Such rare air.  

Indeed even during an inflated stat era in the league, these are all old school names with the exception Muscle Eastcrook.  @kg01 sorry you had to see the name there.. comon baby give it up faaaahhh ya boyyyyy!!!  

Edited December 21, 2023 by Spud2nique

[kg01]

3 minutes ago, Spud2nique said:

We get baby But(t) and the sHeat?  Oh booooyyyy, maybe that’s the ️ I need, those lousy bastards from south beach usually light a into yours truly.  

OO transformed last night btw, THAT DUDE who made plays in the 4th, that’s who he was coming out and who I expected by last year at this time. I want more of that OO, bring it consistently baby you a lil big man freak with skills and agility LETS GOOOO!!!

OO got tired of yall .. ok me, dogging him.  Kept hearing about the C from Turkey and decided to turn that turkey into ba-ba-cue chicken dinnuh!