Official Game Thread: Wizards "at" Hawks

[BrazilianHawk]

14 hours ago, Peoriabird said:

Its so funny how the fan base goats a front office into going in a certain direction like draft Trae and Cam but when it doesn't work out, the Fan base acts it though they never agreed with those types of moves in the 1st place

Well... I for one always wanted that white guy that was #1 in all draft mockups but suddenly fell to #3 a week prior to the draft. I never wanted #7 Trae with the 3rd pick.

[Jody23]

5 minutes ago, terrell said:

Hopefully WE can get picks back via trades

 

While true in theory, the Hawks aren't likely to get picks with the kind of value of the ones they gave away.  If they moved Trae, sure they could get some picks of value.  I'm not sold on that happening and I don't think it would be a wise move although I know some disagree.  Outside of that (and Murray), I don't see the Hawks getting legitimate first round picks for anyone else.

Though it looks bad right now, I think things can be turned around.  It will involve personnel changes for sure, but I don't think a full rebuild is the answer or necessary.

[BrazilianHawk]

13 hours ago, Jody23 said:

Just a reminder.  The Hawks owe unprotected picks and a pick swap to the Spurs.  Tanking is literally not an option.

It's a good thing we don't need to tank to give the Spurs a super high pick. Just keep the route are we're eventually at that point. I don't really believe the Hawks will be any better the next few years, Trae or not Trae. 

 

So if we're going to give the Spurs our picks anyway, at least let's try to amass some draft assets from other teams. Hawks aren't going anywhere but down right now. 

[benhillboy]

Looking at the remaining schedule, best case scenario the Hawks are looking at 37 wins assuming no one is out for an extended period going forward. 

That’s actually acceptable considering how inept the basketball operations are and how softly the team is coached.  They still have more talent than about half the league and are in an ideal average age range.  That will always keep them hovering around .500 but they simply aren’t equipped from an IQ, chemistry, and toughness standpoint to handle an above average strength of schedule (currently 11th). We all know no significant moves to improve the team are coming: teams that actually understand impact and metrics and have valuable assets don’t want DJ.  They have 7 games left versus bottom feeders, who they’ve gone 5-2 against so far so that’s something I guess  

Edited January 14 by benhillboy

[TheNorthCydeRises]

1 minute ago, benhillboy said:

Looking at the remaining schedule, best case scenario the Hawks are looking at 37 wins assuming no one is out for an extended period going forward. 

That’s actually acceptable considering how inept the basketball operations are and how softly the team is coached.  They still have more talent than about half the league and are in an ideal average age range.  That will always keep them hovering around .500 but they simply aren’t equipped from an IQ, chemistry, and toughness standpoint to handle an above average strength of schedule (currently 11th). They have 7 games left versus bottom feeders, who they’ve gone 5-2 against so far so that’s something I guess  

Defensively we don't have more talent.  But it's hard to determine if all of these guys are just bad defenders, or if it's Quin's scheme that is dooming them?

Even offensively, we only have maybe 4 guys who are at or above league average.  5 if you count 12 in that mix.

[BrazilianHawk]

27 minutes ago, benhillboy said:

Looking at the remaining schedule, best case scenario the Hawks are looking at 37 wins assuming no one is out for an extended period going forward. 

That’s actually acceptable considering how inept the basketball operations are and how softly the team is coached.  They still have more talent than about half the league and are in an ideal average age range.  That will always keep them hovering around .500 but they simply aren’t equipped from an IQ, chemistry, and toughness standpoint to handle an above average strength of schedule (currently 11th). We all know no significant moves to improve the team are coming: teams that actually understand impact and metrics and have valuable assets don’t want DJ.  They have 7 games left versus bottom feeders, who they’ve gone 5-2 against so far so that’s something I guess  

Man... you might be right, but they just got blown out by the Washington Generals. At home. They're apathetic. There's no effort. I don't see them winning more than 30.

IMHO it's time to let go.

 

Edit: spelling

[benhillboy]

36 minutes ago, TheNorthCydeRises said:

Defensively we don't have more talent.  But it's hard to determine if all of these guys are just bad defenders, or if it's Quin's scheme that is dooming them?

Even offensively, we only have maybe 4 guys who are at or above league average.  5 if you count 12 in that mix.

Mark the day when I’m giving Trae more credit than you are lol.  With his dribble/ pass/ shoot profile he’s one of the most talented players ever, aren’t his fans always posting these awesome historical statistical distinctions including Jordan, Magic, and Oscar? That’s a pretty good starting point (note I make a huge distinction between “talents” and “players” but I digress).   
 

Defensive talent is important but the lack of it can be mitigated somewhat by good scheme and actual want-to from the players.  Hawks are poor on both fronts.

Go back and look at DJ’s statline from his last SA campaign, it screams talent.  Take account of Jalen’s rising stock around the league, and realize Bogi is still wrestling Tim Jr for highest bench scorer amidst a slump.  The talent on this team is top heavy and horrible at the bottom, granted, but still slightly above average, especially for the 20th ranked payroll.  You don’t have to shortchange it to prop up or make excuses for anyone.  You’re old enough to know that just amassing talent doesn’t guarantee better play at all. At times it worsens it (see Phoenix) while the subtraction improves it (see Philly)

What’s the deal with our bet if Trae is traded?  It’ll probably stay a push anyway but we need to get those stipulations together.

Edited January 14 by benhillboy

[Gray Mule]

Apathy!  I really, really hope that all the trade smoke billowing up around our beloved Hawk team is the main reason for the results we saw in our last game.  Otherwise, all hope is gone.  No more wins this season.  Our ship is sinking, and we have no lifeboats.  Perhaps we do make a trade or two or three.  Let's hope something happens soon.

Edited January 14 by Gray Mule

[TheNorthCydeRises]

41 minutes ago, benhillboy said:

Mark the day when I’m giving Trae more credit than you are lol.  With his dribble/ pass/ shoot profile he’s one of the most talented players ever, aren’t his fans always posting these awesome historical statistical distinctions including Jordan, Magic, and Oscar? That’s a pretty good starting point (note I make a huge distinction between “talents” and “players” but I digress).   
 

Defensive talent is important but the lack of it can be mitigated somewhat by good scheme and actual want-to from the players.  Hawks are poor on both fronts.

Go back and look at DJ’s statline from his last SA campaign, it screams talent.  Take account of Jalen’s rising stock around the league, and realize Bogi is still wrestling Tim Jr for highest bench scorer amidst a slump.  The talent on this team is top heavy and horrible at the bottom, granted, but still slightly above average, especially for the 20th ranked payroll.  You don’t have to shortchange it to prop up or make excuses for anyone.  You’re old enough to know that just amassing talent doesn’t guarantee better play at all. At times it worsens it (see Phoenix) while the subtraction improves it (see Philly)

What’s the deal with our bet if Trae is traded?  It’ll probably stay a push anyway but we need to get those stipulations together.

Once again, I said that we really only have 4 to 5 players who are average to above average players.

Above average

• Trae
• DJ
• Bogi ( sometimes )

Average

• 12
• JJ ( but stock is rising rapidly )
• Okongwu ( sometimes )
• Capela ( rapidly becoming below average )
• Bey ( only when he's making shots )

Trae is the only guy on the team with a VORP ( Value over replacement player ) over 1 at ( 1.6 ).  He was approaching 3, before he fell off a cliff after Christmas.  But the fact that no one else on the team is even above 1, means that we have a very mediocre squad here.

While people may think that Trae is overvalued, Trae has also proven that he can play at very high levels . . . MVP level every blue moon.  

DJ, Bogi, JJ all have good individual talent.  But it's not above and beyond the rest of the league.  As a team, our talent is middle of the pack at best.  And the horrible defense just makes that mediocrity even worse.

[Nash]

22 hours ago, TheNorthCydeRises said:

The increase in 3 point attempts was a mandate from Quin.  All of our shooters have seen their 3 point attempts go up.  A big reason why we've been a top 5 offensive team ( until lately ), was our ability to take and make a lot of 3s.  Quin's mandate for the team to take more 3s, was correct.  But all of our 3 point shooters are extremely streaky.

As for Trae's long range shooting ( 3s from 30+ feet ), it has been above 40% 3FG for most of the year.  Yes, that means all of those long range 3s that fans think are bad shots, were actually going in at a higher rate than 3s coming from less than 30 feet.

He has not been good at all since the 30+ ppg - 10+ apg streak ended right after Christmas.  And he has been horrible from deep

 

 

We know he's had some issue with his shoulder for 2 - 3 weeks now.  Do fans want to hear that excuse?  No.  But it is a fact.

Here are some other guys in the past 9 games

 

DJ - excellent shooting from deep, with more aggressiveness going to the basket.  He's been very good offensively since Christmas

 

Bogi - shooting has really fallen off of a cliff since Christmas.  Deeper 3s aren't falling at all.

 

Bey - still struggling big time on his corner 3s.  Overall FG% is low as well.

 

You can't have 3 of our 4 main shooters go this cold, and expect to win games.

You can phrase Trae's 3pt shooting any way you want, you can pick his best 3pt shooting games and say it's elite but the fact is: This is his 6th season in nba and he's 35% 3pt shooter and that is not going to change for better. With his size and inability to guard my grammy he needs to play to his strengths which are elite and immediately cut his 3pt attempts in half. That happens and this team is immediately much better. His 3pt attempts are bad as usually nobody's expecting those stupid shots and no one is close to the basket to at least try for an offensive rebound. On the other side Bogi is 38.5% career 3pt shooter which is next to elite and he needs to take as twice 3pt shots as Trae. DJM is an afterthought in Atlanta. The guy is not a shooting guard and when both of them are on the floor one is like a fish out of water. DJM needs to be traded immediately, Bogi needs to move to 2, we need to pray fro Dre to stay healthy, JJ is already good enough. Hawks need to find C who can shoot, rebound and hit freaking FT's. OO is a solid bench player, bring Gallo back who's going to be bought out soon, find a vet point guard who can give you 10-12 mins and find one solid bench wing and you're set. DJM can provide all those assets. No rebuild 

[benhillboy]

11 hours ago, TheNorthCydeRises said:

Once again, I said that we really only have 4 to 5 players who are average to above average players.

Above average

• Trae
• DJ
• Bogi ( sometimes )

Average

• 12
• JJ ( but stock is rising rapidly )
• Okongwu ( sometimes )
• Capela ( rapidly becoming below average )
• Bey ( only when he's making shots )

Trae is the only guy on the team with a VORP ( Value over replacement player ) over 1 at ( 1.6 ).  He was approaching 3, before he fell off a cliff after Christmas.  But the fact that no one else on the team is even above 1, means that we have a very mediocre squad here.

While people may think that Trae is overvalued, Trae has also proven that he can play at very high levels . . . MVP level every blue moon.  

DJ, Bogi, JJ all have good individual talent.  But it's not above and beyond the rest of the league.  As a team, our talent is middle of the pack at best.  And the horrible defense just makes that mediocrity even worse.

I don’t care for VORP, it’s just a simple culmination of stat points, minutes, and usage.  These metrics go into far more depth describing his impact this season:

Trae’s True Shooting is the same as Taurean Prince’s (.577).  Effective field goal % the same as Caris LeVert (.503)

His WS/48 is the same as Lou Dort (.118).  

His defensive rating (123) and box (-2.3) are the same as Cade Cunningham 

His assist to turnover ratio is the same as Devin Booker, Kelly Olynk, Malik Monk, and Slo Mo (2.6)

His on,on/off net profile is most similar to Spencer Dinwiddie and Jordan Clarkson (-2, -1 range)

The Hawks’ offensive rating is now a half point better with him off the floor (119.4 to 118.9)

The only metric he has always excelled in is offensive box plus minus, closest to LeBron (5.3)

All I’m saying is talent doesn’t mean much in the absence of efficiency.  All of the top 10-20 players that Hawks fans want to pair or even triple Trae with either don’t care to play with him or are fine building something where they are.  Then the second tier of players who aren’t two-way capable aren’t compatible with Trae at all.  You have to admit, a change of scenery would be good for both he and the Hawks.  It’s time.

Edited January 15 by benhillboy

[AHF]

5 hours ago, benhillboy said:

I don’t care for VORP, it’s just a simple culmination of stat points, minutes, and usage.  These metrics go into far more depth describing his impact this season:

Trae’s True Shooting is the same as Taurean Prince’s (.577).  Effective field goal % the same as Caris LeVert (.503)

His WS/48 is the same as Lou Dort (.118).  

His defensive rating (123) and box (-2.3) are the same as Cade Cunningham 

His assist to turnover ratio is the same as Devin Booker, Kelly Olynk, Malik Monk, and Slo Mo (2.6)

His on,on/off net profile is most similar to Spencer Dinwiddie and Jordan Clarkson (-2, -1 range)

The Hawks’ offensive rating is now a half point better with him off the floor (119.4 to 118.9)

The only metric he has always excelled in is offensive box plus minus, closest to LeBron (5.3)

All I’m saying is talent doesn’t mean much in the absence of efficiency.  All of the top 10-20 players that Hawks fans want to pair or even triple Trae with either don’t care to play with him or are fine building something where they are.  Then the second tier of players who aren’t two-way capable aren’t compatible with Trae at all.  You have to admit, a change of scenery would be good for both he and the Hawks.  It’s time.

If we are talking metrics, just going to note that you are leaving out probably the biggest names in the area including RAPTOR, WS, and WAR.

From my view, Trae has been abysmal lately and was abysmal to start the year.  He was fantastic in December.  He needs to get back on track with his December play.  So a tale of two seasons for me so far with it simplistically being "good Trae" and "bad Trae" that we've seen.

[TheNorthCydeRises]

4 hours ago, benhillboy said:

I don’t care for VORP, it’s just a simple culmination of stat points, minutes, and usage.  These metrics go into far more depth describing his impact this season:

Trae’s True Shooting is the same as Taurean Prince’s (.577).  Effective field goal % the same as Caris LeVert (.503)

His WS/48 is the same as Lou Dort (.118).  

His defensive rating (123) and box (-2.3) are the same as Cade Cunningham 

His assist to turnover ratio is the same as Devin Booker, Kelly Olynk, Malik Monk, and Slo Mo (2.6)

His on,on/off net profile is most similar to Spencer Dinwiddie and Jordan Clarkson (-2, -1 range)

The Hawks’ offensive rating is now a half point better with him off the floor (119.4 to 118.9)

The only metric he has always excelled in is offensive box plus minus, closest to LeBron (5.3)

All I’m saying is talent doesn’t mean much in the absence of efficiency.  All of the top 10-20 players that Hawks fans want to pair or even triple Trae with either don’t care to play with him or are fine building something where they are.  Then the second tier of players who aren’t two-way capable aren’t compatible with Trae at all.  You have to admit, a change of scenery would be good for both he and the Hawks.  It’s time.

LMAO . . where was this hot take just a mere 3 weeks ago?

I love how when Trae balls out, the stats don't matter and everybody is quiet as church mice. 

But when he plays bad, it's all about his stats.  It's hilarious.

 

The team has struggled in the past 9 games, with only DJ and JJ really playing above their norms.

 

 

Trae has been horrible.  If he's not 100%, he should've sat down a few games.

Bogi and Bey have been horrible shooting from the outside.  Bey can't buy a corner 3.  Bogi is forcing even more 3s than Trae.

Capela shooting sub 50%, when all of his shots are within 3 feet, is atrocious.

Only DJ and JJ have been balling lately offensively, but even they have struggle defensively.

 

It's already been seen this year that when Trae balls out, the team was still struggling to string together wins. Now that he's struggling, we've seen this team get blown out instead of keep games close.

As always, let the season play out.  But keep that same energy when this kid is balling.

[909]

The lost to the Wizards is the low point of the season . I sense friction. Please Hawks don’t embarrass yourself on TNT in front of the whole country. I was planning on being at the game,but canceled my plans after that terrible performance Saturday night.

[SalvorMallow]

7 hours ago, 909 said:

The lost to the Wizards is the low point of the season . I sense friction. Please Hawks don’t embarrass yourself on TNT in front of the whole country. I was planning on being at the game,but canceled my plans after that terrible performance Saturday night.

Hmmm...do we count that game as an embarrassment or not? Tough to say.

[Diesel]

46 minutes ago, SalvorMallow said:

Hmmm...do we count that game as an embarrassment or not? Tough to say.

No...  We have to recognize greatness.

Wimby is going to be the best player that this game has ever seen.   He's just really young right now.  However, I have never seen anybody with the dominant potential that this guy has.   When he caught the lob on the inbound... when he gains about 20 lbs and really has confidence in himself and his body and his game... That will be the norm.. because nobody can stop it.  Most of his blocks were clean as a whistle.   His block on JJ.... DAMN!!   It took an extraordinary effort for us to not get caught up... but in about 2 to 3 years, there will be nothing stopping that guy.   He will have put it all together.   Today we saw the future of the NBA and that guy is a -freakin Mazing.