Official Game Thread: Hawks at Thunder (8 PM EST Tip!)

[AHF]

14 minutes ago, JeffS17 said:

The same people defending a small sample size will be the ones excusing his season averages because of his "slow start".  And frankly, slow start is quite generous considering the most recent game was his worst performance of the year.  And unfortunately for us, wins/losses count the same now as they do in January.

 

No.  It is because small samples are not meaningful in trying to evaluate a player for the big picture.  Trae started slow with a .514% TS% in the 2021-22 and ended up with a great year that everyone praised.  He started slow with a .546% TS% last year and never recovered to the same degree and no one claims last season was as good.  The fact that they point out that he improved from a ~.550% TS% over October, November, and December last year to a ~.590% TS% from January to March isn't "excusing" anything.  It is just facts.  He was much better the second half of last year but also not good enough to make last season anything but a disappointment as far as his scoring went.

7 games is an insignificant sample size for every player in the league.  No one is defending his play by saying he has been good during that period - just that it is too small a data set to use to draw meaningful conclusions on a player.

1 hour ago, bleachkit said:

Is it too much to ask of our superstar not to dig himself an insurmountable statistical hole? Those 4-16 nights are brutal. 

I don't mind some bad nights but he does have to get more consistent.  Even the most efficient point guards are going to have rough nights like Jalen Brunson's 2-12 last night or his 6-21 opening night or his 4-14 night, etc. this year.  Trae needs to be more like Jalen  with overall improved consistency and efficiency accepting that it will still come with the volatility that small guards have in their lines night to night.

[TheNorthCydeRises]

15 hours ago, Sothron said:

That was just ugly basketball from us sans crashing the glass on offense for three quarters. The positive from this game would be the team didn't quit. They made a big comeback in the 4th. They dug themselves too much a hole to crawl out of it.

I have been holding off from saying something because it seems to set people off but we have to officially talk about Trae's shooting. We know he starts off slow every season but this isn't slow. This is almost unplayable shooting especially from the guy that takes the most shots.

While the shooting is horrid, he's making up for it a bit, by getting to the FT line. He's averaging a career high 8.3 made FTs per game, with none of the foul baiting that he was known for.

Those 8 points at the line is equal to 4 FGM. This is why his TS%, while low, is still at 50%, despite shooting 33% FG.

The 4.3 turnovers with less usage, is more concerning to me. That is him over thinking whenever he gets in the paint. When you look at his shot chart, he's missed a TON of shots in the paint. Shots he normally doesn't miss.

Quin tells these guys to keep shooting, because he understands that you can't score if you don't shoot.

Trae is playing within the system and still adjusting. His track record suggests that he will figure it out. And once he does, he becomes a monster.

 

[TheNorthCydeRises]

5 hours ago, terrell said:

Hawks never any more good players around him early on during tanking years.. 

So of course we were better with him then...lol

 

League avg efg is .537. This year he is 38 efg. The last 4 years league avg efg has been in between 53 and 54. Trae has one year over 53 and has never been 54.

Career 50 efg. He is a below avg efg shooter every year except 1 year. The man is a gunner, but he does get to the line. Without fts he is a below avg scorer and shooter.

So the numbers say he should pass more and shoot less.

What is league average TS% during his career? We all know a huge part of Trae's game is getting to the FT line and making a high percentage.

eFG% is a stat that favors good to great 3 point shooters. TS% is a stat that favors guys who can shoot and get to the FT line and make shots.

He's shooting a career low 37% on 2 pt shots, after hovering around +/- 50% on his 2 pt shots for his career.

The floater isn't falling so far this year. Once it does, his efficiency will start to rapidly climb.

[Final_quest]

28 minutes ago, AHF said:

7 games is an insignificant sample size for every player in the league.  No one is defending his play by saying he has been good during that period - just that it is too small a data set to use to draw meaningful conclusions on a player.

Unfortunately he doesn't usually get going until January, but he usually doesn't start this bad either.  Still, we have one of the best offenses in the league even with Trae starting slow.

Trae has to let everyone get their 25 game pledges out of their system.  Start of the season and the playoffs are peak times for knee jerk reaction takes.

[JayBirdHawk]

5 hours ago, Jdawgflow said:

What would a trade for Delon look like potentially?  Would love Gallo back as well.

 

Patty Mills ($6.8 mil) and Garrison Mathews ($2 mil) plus a 2nd(s) rounder for Delon ($8.1 mil) and Gallo ($6.8 mil)

Hawks are still $9.6 million under the tax, so this trade would have us at $3.5 million under the tax.

[JayBirdHawk]

6 minutes ago, Final_quest said:

Still, we have one of the best offenses in the league even with Trae starting slow.

......and Bogi at 33.3% from 3.

[theheroatl]

1 hour ago, Final_quest said:

Unfortunately he doesn't usually get going until January, but he usually doesn't start this bad either.  Still, we have one of the best offenses in the league even with Trae starting slow.

Trae has to let everyone get their 25 game pledges out of their system.  Start of the season and the playoffs are peak times for knee jerk reaction takes.

This.

 

tbh our offense is always great..

 

why does no one ever care that our defense sucks balls

It’s almost as if we need a Rudy Gobert or something (gag me).

 

one thing that gets me is all these 3 point shooters that get hit against us.. Rozier, Williams last night, Brunson, Barrett

Edited November 8, 2023 by theheroatl

[AHF]

1 hour ago, TheNorthCydeRises said:

 TS% is a stat that favors guys who can shoot and get to the FT line and make shots.

 

Ts% reflects any kind of efficient scoring.  Big men near the basket.  3pt aces.  Guys who can get to the line.  Anything that is efficient.  Like any other stat it shouldn’t be used in isolation - you need to especially factor in volume.

[JayBirdHawk]

 

 

[Diesel]

13 hours ago, Sothron said:

Trade for Delon Wright.

Now, you're speaking!

[Diesel]

12 hours ago, macdaddy said:

That and $9 will get you a sandwich.   But seriously it takes a lot in this league to go from bright future to contender and OKC needs to start with playoffs.  We nearly came back on them despite a few guys playing like absolute garbage the whole game.  

As good as Chet is, Chet is not there yet.   I was impressed by Jalen Williams... and I don't know if it was trustable shooting from Isaiah Joe.  Will he hit 4 threes most games... I doubt it.  They are well coached though.. and well coached can mean a lot.   But do they pose a problem for Denver or GS in the best of 7...   I doubt it. 

 

[Diesel]

I don't tihnk it's a question could we trade for players that can help... The question is would Quin use them?

 

[Final_quest]

11 hours ago, theheroatl said:

This.

 

tbh our offense is always great..

 

why does no one ever care that our defense sucks balls

It’s almost as if we need a Rudy Gobert or something (gag me).

 

one thing that gets me is all these 3 point shooters that get hit against us.. Rozier, Williams last night, Brunson, Barrett

Considered to be a prototype PG, Jason Kidd had a FG% of around 40%.  Sure it was a different era, but Kidd was still below league averages.  

People look at Trae's FG% and turnovers and think of him as "ineffective."  On offense his negatives are completely out the window once you understand he gets to the line, creates easy buckets for bigs, and wide open shots for three point shooters.  Just like Jason Kidd did not need to shoot a high percentage to control the game, same thing with Trae.

Trae produces a top scoring offense with lower than average TOV% for the team, at times elite team TOV%.  Most assists since he came into the league 3300.  How do you replace that? 

Ya'll are looking at individual stats and not considering overall team impact.  He was supposed to lead a team with John Collins as the 2nd best player to contender status?  Kidd didn't make it to the Finals until he was 29, and that was during the peak times of west dominating the east. 

[bleachkit]

27 minutes ago, Final_quest said:

Considered to be a prototype PG, Jason Kidd had a FG% of around 40%.  Sure it was a different era, but Kidd was still below league averages.  

People look at Trae's FG% and turnovers and think of him as "ineffective."  On offense his negatives are completely out the window once you understand he gets to the line, creates easy buckets for bigs, and wide open shots for three point shooters.  Just like Jason Kidd did not need to shoot a high percentage to control the game, same thing with Trae.

Trae produces a top scoring offense with lower than average TOV% for the team, at times elite team TOV%.  Most assists since he came into the league 3300.  How do you replace that? 

Ya'll are looking at individual stats and not considering overall team impact.  He was supposed to lead a team with John Collins as the 2nd best player to contender status?  Kidd didn't make it to the Finals until he was 29, and that was during the peak times of west dominating the east. 

Come on man, that was a different era. Poor shooting was more accepted back then. That would not fly today. Just like in baseball, teams still bought into outdated conventional wisdom and didn't have an analytical understanding of the game. Trae does impact the game with his passing, and that's where his focus needs to be. His FGA needs to come down. 

[theheroatl]

We all agree Trae should take back a few of those spray and pray shots. We play more efficient when he drives and kicks out.

If he wants to be like Nash, be like Nash. 
 

Put Dre on the bench.. 

Start Bey, OO, JJ, DJM and Trae and tell Trae he has to pass first.

Case closed.

Edited November 8, 2023 by theheroatl

[Final_quest]

43 minutes ago, bleachkit said:

Come on man, that was a different era. Poor shooting was more accepted back then. That would not fly today. Just like in baseball, teams still bought into outdated conventional wisdom and didn't have an analytical understanding of the game. Trae does impact the game with his passing, and that's where his focus needs to be. His FGA needs to come down. 

My point was that Jason Kidd also shot well below league averages and was acknowledge to be an all time great PG anyways.  Trae's true shooting percentage last year was 57% and league average for PG's was 56%.  The year before his TS% was 60% while the average PG was 54%.  His impact on the game is much bigger than a FG% number anyways. 

He takes some bad shots like a lot of all time great scorers.  Taking less bad shots would help him/us, but it's focusing on 5% of the 95% he brings to the table. 

If it's such a detriment, how do you think we always end up as one of the top offenses?  Which starter makes up for Trae's bad shots and turnovers to lead us to one of the best offenses in the league?     

[macdaddy]

Seems a lot have lost faith in Trae as our star player.  I haven't.  We've seen what he can do over and over again.  Yeah he needs to play better but the idea of moving on from Trae is just another rebuild unless you can pull off some kind of miracle trade.  Murray, Hunter, Jalen, OO, as much as i like those guys, aren't going to compete for a title.   

[JeffS17]

26 minutes ago, macdaddy said:

Seems a lot have lost faith in Trae as our star player.  I haven't.  We've seen what he can do over and over again.  Yeah he needs to play better but the idea of moving on from Trae is just another rebuild unless you can pull off some kind of miracle trade.  Murray, Hunter, Jalen, OO, as much as i like those guys, aren't going to compete for a title.   

I wouldn't say I've lost faith, but I would say I'm actively losing faith every time I see a game like that...  that OKC game was disaster class and highlighted a lot of his limitations, physical and mental.  I do think he's struggling not being the sole feature of the offense and gambles too much on flashy/risky passes.  But we're only 7 games into Quin's first season, so I am still hopeful the new coaching staff in place will have him doing more of the things he excels at and fewer of the things he struggles at.  Time will tell.

[macdaddy]

28 minutes ago, JeffS17 said:

I wouldn't say I've lost faith, but I would say I'm actively losing faith every time I see a game like that...  that OKC game was disaster class and highlighted a lot of his limitations, physical and mental.  I do think he's struggling not being the sole feature of the offense and gambles too much on flashy/risky passes.  But we're only 7 games into Quin's first season, so I am still hopeful the new coaching staff in place will have him doing more of the things he excels at and fewer of the things he struggles at.  Time will tell.

7 games in and we're 4-3 with the #2 offense despite all of Trae's shooting woes.  He's leading the league in assists and has career high in steals.  Folks acting like we're winning in spite of him.  Even playing way below his usual ability we're still winning because he's generating offense. 

[JeffS17]

1 minute ago, macdaddy said:

Folks acting like we're winning in spite of him.

Yes, we quite literally are.  He has the worst net rating of anyone in the rotation (see below).  Cherry picking stats doesn't change that.  I think we could very easily be 6-1 if he was playing up to his contract.  As @thecampster mentioned in another thread, I also judge guys play by their contract, and it's not a good thing when the guy getting paid 2-3x more than the rest of the players has the worst on-court results.