Official Game Thread: Hawks at Mavericks

[Spud2nique]

Thought we played a great first half considering the back 2 back. Legs got to us in the 2nd and a lot of the refs. Garrison Korver Bird II is pretty . Hunter changed. Again, something about him is sturdier. Keep it going. Buf is looking good l, real good, lot of confidence in little actual hardcourt playing time, great stuff, his defense and his his lil southpaw stroke from deep. 
 

JJ came back down to earth but the first play of the game he hit his man under the hoop for 2 lookin like Scott E. Pip duex.  

Highlight screen shots :

Im glad Luka ain’t a Hawk I hate watching his sloppy a$$ on the floor whining 24/7.  

Luka being sloppy  

Luka out hustled by Bruno

Gary Bird @JayBirdHawk co player of the game!  

Luka needing attention via bs ️ style falls for calls, ya I said it.

caption this $hit @Diesel

 

 

GO HAWKS!!!

ps Luck Fuka!  

 

 

[Spud2nique]

2 hours ago, JayBirdHawk said:

Bruno and Kobe

Ooohhh, Bruno over Garrence Bird eh ? Bruno been fighting and did. Garrence was on .. do we have a tiebreaker? @kg01 from deep in the sac? ? 

[kg01]

6 hours ago, Spud2nique said:

Ooohhh, Bruno over Garrence Bird eh ? Bruno been fighting and did. Garrence was on .. do we have a tiebreaker? @kg01 from deep in the sac? ? 

Not that I secretly enjoy opposing @JayBirdHawk but....

Always bet on meth.

I'm digging Garri Bird as a nickname tho.

[AHF]

9 hours ago, Peoriabird said:

I ain't mad though because is is clear that the Hawks have most of what is needed to win consistently except an average big man.  If the Hawks had an average big man that can catch and dunk over guards, they would be tough to beat.  But we have Clint!

As Clint goes, so go the Hawks most nights.  He was really good in a lot of recent wins.  Terrible last night.

[NBASupes]

6 minutes ago, AHF said:

As Clint goes, so go the Hawks most nights.  He was really good in a lot of recent wins.  Terrible last night.

Clint due to his semi effective size and rebounding is critical for us but he's washed these days and his consistency is just all over the place. His drop coverage D ranges from a C+ which is insanely low for Clint to an A which is prime Clint but he was consistent then as a drop coverage 5. 

Offense is where his decline is really felt. He used to be a solid helper and an excellent movement big. He's no longer a consistent helper and his movement effectiveness is inconsistent. It seems like Trae and Murray are both suffering for it but Trae a lot more. Clint has been a lot better of late and it's been helping Murray whereas he was just terrible for the 1st half of the season. 

Regression sucks and father time is different for different types of players. 

[TheNorthCydeRises]

I'm leaaning toward the dark side the more I watch Quin Snyder. He absolutely does not coach according to the feel of the game.

After the first half that Mathews had, for him not to get more PT and a single shot up in the 2nd half, is totally on the coach.

We just had a no name light us up for 50. Would had it been out of the question to get Garrison some additional shot attempts to see if he had a 30 point night in his bag?

And don't get me started on Bruno vs Capela.  One was +11 in the game and making tough shots around the rim.  The other was -25 and missing his traditional bunny layups and put backs.

I don't trust Quin to be a high level coach for this team. True coaching shows up when you have adversity. It's easy to coach when players are balling out. But when they're not, what are your adjustments?

 

[TheNorthCydeRises]

10 hours ago, Peoriabird said:

No inside presence...The perimeter guys have to do all of the scoring

Like I've been saying. The frontcourt is the issue ... and maybe even the coach now.

[JayBirdHawk]

8 hours ago, Spud2nique said:

Ooohhh, Bruno over Garrence Bird eh ? Bruno been fighting and did. Garrence was on .. do we have a tiebreaker? @kg01 from deep in the sac? ? 

 

1 hour ago, kg01 said:

Not that I secretly enjoy opposing @JayBirdHawk but....

Always bet on meth.

I'm digging Garri Bird as a nickname tho.

Don't listen to the CageyOne.  Garri Bird did his damage early. Nothing in the 2nd half when we got down 17 points. 

Bruno and Kobe did most of the scoring and defense the last 4 minutes of the 3rd and the first 4 minutes of the 4th bringing us back within 8 points. Subbed out shortly after. We scored 7 points total in the last 6+ minutes with the starters.

Quin's rigidity in not sticking with what's/who's working is annoying.

 

[REHawksFan]

1 minute ago, JayBirdHawk said:

Quin's rigidity in not sticking with what's/who's working is annoying.

Didn't we have the same issue with Nate?  Maybe it's just a vet coach thing?  

[benhillboy]

17 hours ago, macdaddy said:

It's been proven though that number of pro games on the body means more than age and Luka has as many games on him as any at his age.  He's still got a scary amount of 'prime' left in him but not sure it's going to be 10 years. 

Fair point, I forgot he became a pro at like 12.

Still his total non-reliance on athleticism bodes well for his future.  Sure he won’t still be in peak form at 35, but the two generational vets we have in the league of Steph and LeBron aren’t/ weren’t too shabby at 35, although I stop just short of calling Luka “generational.”  Jokic and Wemby, no doubt.

[Spud2nique]

38 minutes ago, REHawksFan said:

Didn't we have the same issue with Nate?  Maybe it's just a vet coach thing?  

Gif looks like a dumb lady we had at my old job a real Fckin Karen if I may. The kid is cute but imagine an adult in your workplace not knowing anything whatsoever and being named to a position she didn’t deserve.
 

Ok rant over, hey thanks @REHawksFan you always get me pumped up one way or another.  

ummm Go Hawks?  

[Spud2nique]

44 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

 

Don't listen to the CageyOne.  Garri Bird did his damage early. Nothing in the 2nd half when we got down 17 points. 

Bruno and Kobe did most of the scoring and defense the last 4 minutes of the 3rd and the first 4 minutes of the 4th bringing us back within 8 points. Subbed out shortly after. We scored 7 points total in the last 6+ minutes with the starters.

Quin's rigidity in not sticking with what's/who's working is annoying.

 

Bruno and Kobe, good point about Garrence disappearing but I was so impressed with him early on. I love that kid .

[KB21]

The play the hot hand fallacy is not supported by analytics.  

[AHF]

7 minutes ago, KB21 said:

The play the hot hand fallacy is not supported by analytics.  

I think we'd need a bit more definition around it.  Clearly we've all seen some forms of it be very real as we just saw with Malachi Flynn scoring 50.   (And getting double the minutes he usually gets as the coach saw him hot.)

[macdaddy]

38 minutes ago, KB21 said:

The play the hot hand fallacy is not supported by analytics.  

Thank you.   I can believe it.  Folks only remember when someone is hot and taken out and then there's a loss.  No one remembers if there's a win and no one remembers when someone is hot and left in and goes cold.  No one remembers when a guy is hot subbed out and the team goes on a bigger run.   The Malachi-games are blue moon type events that happen on terrible teams.

I'd also say that Quin is definitely rigid but there are examples of him sticking with guys who are doing well on the court.  So i don't think it's cause for alarm yet. 

[KB21]

12 minutes ago, macdaddy said:

Thank you.   I can believe it.  Folks only remember when someone is hot and taken out and then there's a loss.  No one remembers if there's a win and no one remembers when someone is hot and left in and goes cold.  No one remembers when a guy is hot subbed out and the team goes on a bigger run.   The Malachi-games are blue moon type events that happen on terrible teams.

I'd also say that Quin is definitely rigid but there are examples of him sticking with guys who are doing well on the court.  So i don't think it's cause for alarm yet. 

Quin is excellent.

[AHF]

The idea that shooting performance is variable is I think trivially obvious.  Some games guys have it and others they don't.  Playing guys who are playing well more minutes is neither complicated nor fallacious.  

This is also backed up academically:

Quote

In 2018 Miller and Sanjurjo published a new analysis of the original research of Gilovich, Tversky, and Vallone (GTV) and in contrast concluded that there is "significant evidence of streak shooting".^[9] Miller and Sanjurjo concluded that there is indeed a statistical basis for the hot hand phenomenon in the hit pattern of the Philadelphia 76ers.

GTV assumed that there is only evidence of a hot hand if the probability of a hit is higher after a streak of hits than the probability of a hit after a streak of misses. This cannot be observed in the hit pattern of the 76ers. The aforementioned probabilities are not significantly different. Therefore, GTV concluded that there is no sign of a hot hand phenomenon. However, Miller and Sanjurjo show that GTV's assumption is wrong and, in fact, the expected rate of hits after a streak of hits should be lower than the rate of hits after a streak of misses. Thus, an equal rate of hits to misses after a streak is a sign of a hot hand.

Miller and Sanjurjo stated that GTV introduced a sampling bias because they start counting after a series of hits/misses. Miller and Sanjurjo show analytically for a series of one hit (and empirically for bigger streaks) that this introduces a bias towards more misses, given that the number following samples is small enough (e.g. less than 100 for a fair coin). According to Miller and Sanjurjo: "it is incorrect to expect a consistent 50 percent (Bernoulli i.i.d.) shooter who has taken 100 shots to make half of the shots that immediately follow a streak of three hits".

Quote

A paper from October 2011 by Yaari and Eisenmann, a large dataset of more than 300,000 NBA free throws were found to show "strong evidence" for the "hot hand" phenomenon at the individual level. They analyzed all free throws taken during five regular NBA seasons from 2005 to 2010. They found that there was a significant increase in players' probabilities of hitting the second shot in a two-shot series compared to the first one. They also found that in a set of two consecutive shots, the probability of hitting the second shot is greater following a hit than following a miss on the previous one.^[13]

Quote

In 2014, a paper from three Harvard graduates presented at the Sloan Sports Analytics Conference, which used advanced statistics that for the first time could control for variables in basketball games such as the player's shot location and a defender's position, showed a "small yet significant hot-hand effect."^[14]

Quote

In 2015, an examination of the 1985 study by Joshua Miller and Adam Sanjurjo found flaws in the methodology of the 1985 study and showed that, in fact, the hot hands may exist. The researchers said that instead it may be attributable to a misapplication of statistical techniques.^[3] The authors concluded that people were right to believe that the hot hand exists in basketball.^[3]

Quote

A 2021 study, using data from NBA Three-Point Contests over the period 1986–2020, found "considerable evidence of hot hand shooting in and across individuals".^[15]

 

[KB21]

Hot Hand Fallacy - The Decision Lab

 

[AHF]

21 minutes ago, KB21 said:

Hot Hand Fallacy - The Decision Lab

 

The 1985 study has been debunked multiple times.  

Also, your article doesn't even say it is a fallacy in noting this more recent research:

Quote

It is worth noting two things about this research. First, this research is brand new and results from various statistical methodologies and interpretations. This means it may be a while until we know for sure whether the hot hand effect actually exists or not.

Also this article says seriously stupid things like:

Quote

Second, this research only focuses on human performances in sports. This means that the hot hand effect may not exist in other contexts depending more on probability, such as when flipping a coin or rolling a dice.

Oh, the hot hand effect if real for human performance in sports as recent research states may not mean that it applies in flipping a coin or rolling a die?  Wow.  Real insightful.

 

I'll stick with the more recent research and not a non-research opinion piece like this one.

[KB21]

Go ahead.  Find a coach that makes his decisions based on 6 shots instead of nearly 3,000 shots.  I'll show you a coach who is an idiot when you find him.