Official Game Thread: Jazz at Hawks

[Final_quest]

3 minutes ago, benhillboy said:

I’m slick disappointed in OO so far.  Last season he was +5.2 and +4.4.  The energy still plays but it’s time to add some skills.

He played with Delon, Bogi, and Gallo last year.  The bench is gonna take some time to come together this year.  

[Atlantaholic]

6 minutes ago, benhillboy said:

I’m slick disappointed in OO so far.  Last season he was +5.2 and +4.4.  The energy still plays but it’s time to add some skills.

The problem is that if we continue to pair him with JJ we are just to small down low. 

[Spud2nique]

5 minutes ago, benhillboy said:

I’m slick disappointed in OO so far.  Last season he was +5.2 and +4.4.  The energy still plays but it’s time to add some skills.

I’d love to see your room one day. Is it filled with +/- posters and statistical NBA breakdown on the chalkboard in the corner? 
 

 

ps Nice new haircut Bennyhill! 

[Wretch]

4 hours ago, kg01 said:

Show me where anyone said he's above criticism.

I will be the first one that raises his hand and own this - with one caveat: CONTEXT MATTERS.  No one thinks that Trae is above criticism.  There is no player, coach, or general manager in any sport, men or women's, that is above criticism.  Anyone who would argue otherwise simply doesn't understand sports and competition at the most basic level.  *I personally said that Trae gets a pass from me until we have a complete team.

What was said was that he was shouldering the whole offense without a reliable 2nd option.  Moreover, it was too easy to key on him defensively and disrupt our offense.  Consequently, it was irrational to put all of the blame on his shoulders - particularly when he carried us to the Eastern Conference Finals.

Now that we have a reliable 2nd option, who seems just as reliable as a primary option some nights, it is fair to reassess the criticism of Trae...with the added stipulation that everyone on this team be assessed fairly.  Anything else is just an agenda driven narrative.

13 hours ago, TheNorthCydeRises said:

No sir.  I need you to point out specifically in this game, how Trae's "bad defense" contributed to this loss.

We all know that overall, he's a bad defender.  But this cannot be the default "go to", whenever the Hawks lose a game because they can't stop anybody.

Nate is normally putting Trae guarding the man in the corner. On rare occasions, he'll have to guard one of the smaller guards.

We can literally watch every shot attempt the Jazz made in this game.  There are definitely plays in which Trae got scored on.  But as you watch these made shots, tell me what do you see?

Video and Shotcharts | Stats | NBA.com

 

This was a good game, not so much a good loss.  The biggest factors in that loss were:

• FT disparity (50%) and particularly in the 1st quarter where Utah shot half of their FT's alone.
• Offensive execution - particularly lazy passes and not taking care of the ball
• Static rotations throwing a wet blanket on our run
• This guy playing out of his mind: 

Utah is a legit and well coached team.  They focused on attacking the basket, but never settled into a predictable rhythm.  There was a lot of ball movement on their 3pt makes and they were hot from outside (43%) while we were abysmal (28%) with plenty of long distance blame to go around.  Not surprising as Utah is right there at the top of the league in spot up 3s while we clearly DGAF (regardless of which metric you sort it on BTW).

At the end of the day, it's just a team loss and loss to a good team at that.  Kind of weird to focus-fire Trae.

*Side note - they're playing that blue-collar regular season basketball that we know so well.  Unless Markkanen is actually "That Guy Pal' , then I'm mostly confident in how it's ultimately going to play out.

[macdaddy]

13 minutes ago, Wretch said:

There is no player, coach, or general manager in any sport, men or women's, that is above criticism. 

"What'd this Wretch guy just say?"

[Gray Mule]

4 minutes ago, macdaddy said:

"What'd this Wretch guy just say?"

As good as he was, whatever his average says, when he went up to bat, he made more outs than he made hits.  Check it out and see for yourself!

[AHF]

1 hour ago, Final_quest said:

Was reading Glen Willis on Twitter yesterday and he is a fan of Jhol.  He said people will come around to Justin like they did with Delon Wright.  He particularly likes his execution on defense.  I personally am open to the idea that he's a lot better than people on here are suggesting.  Further I am also cheering for AJ to get more minutes, but I'm not gonna go all chicken little the sky is falling if there is a game he doesn't get much PT.  

I think the big difference for Delon and Holiday is that Delon has traditionally had good offensive efficiency and elite defensive numbers like DRTG while Holiday has usually been below par (and I say that in reference to his own roster because that metric is so team dependent).  Where Delon coming back to his career norm put him in a position to be a big contributor, Justin doesn't have that same luxury.  I do think that he is pretty good about knowing where he should be on defense as plays develop and that Nate puts a lot of value on that.  So I have no expectation that we'll see JHol outside of the main rotation.  But I also don't think the fan base will ever be high on him the way we were on Delon last season once he came around.

[terrell]

4 hours ago, ShooterSays said:

Off nights in the NBA are going to happen. But with how talented Trae is at passing and just being a floor general out there, he can't keep having these 10-30 nights and shooting 37% on the season....yikes. 

He's too talented at everything else. Needs to find other winning ways to impact the game.

[Final_quest]

9 minutes ago, AHF said:

I think the big difference for Delon and Holiday is that Delon has traditionally had good offensive efficiency and elite defensive numbers like DRTG while Holiday has usually been below par (and I say that in reference to his own roster because that metric is so team dependent).  Where Delon coming back to his career norm put him in a position to be a big contributor, Justin doesn't have that same luxury.  I do think that he is pretty good about knowing where he should be on defense as plays develop and that Nate puts a lot of value on that.  So I have no expectation that we'll see JHol outside of the main rotation.  But I also don't think the fan base will ever be high on him the way we were on Delon last season once he came around.

I don't think he meant anything more than the fact that people were cold on Delon at first but eventually grew to appreciate him.  Glen Willis understands defensive schemes and has made several tweets in admiration of Holiday's defensive reads for the Hawks.  His reputation two years ago was the Pacer's best wing defender, and that was when they were a top defensive team. 

All of the "analysis" that "proves" JHol is washed up is looking at one stat in relation to a team.  Most of his other stats have been steady the past couple years.  I'm not convinced either way, but I'm hoping AJ gets to play over him because he is too good not to play.  While also hoping JHol is better than we think.  I don't want to be JHol apologist, but I think some of the takes on him are reactionary.  

[AHF]

One good thing for Trae is that he is crushing other point guards in A/TO numbers.  

Here are the assist %s of the top 7 PGs:

Tyrese Haliburton 45.5% 

Chris Paul 40.7%

Trae Young 39.4%

Jrue Holiday 38.5%

Ja Morant 35.8%

Mike Conley 35.0%

Russell Westbrook 34.5%

 

Here are the turnover %s of those same players:

Tyrese Haliburton 15.2% 

Chris Paul 14.2%

Trae Young 10.6%

Jrue Holiday 13.9%

Ja Morant 14.1%

Mike Conley 11.9%

Russell Westbrook 19.3%

 

This is their ratio:

Tyrese Haliburton 3.00x 

Chris Paul 2.87x

Trae Young 3.72x

Jrue Holiday 2.77x

Ja Morant 2.54x

Mike Conley 2.94x

Russell Westbrook 1.79x

 

[AHF]

7 minutes ago, Final_quest said:

I don't think he meant anything more than the fact that people were cold on Delon at first but eventually grew to appreciate him.  Glen Willis understands defensive schemes and has made several tweets in admiration of Holiday's defensive reads for the Hawks.  His reputation two years ago was the Pacer's best wing defender, and that was when they were a top defensive team. 

All of the "analysis" that "proves" JHol is washed up is looking at one stat in relation to a team.  Most of his other stats have been steady the past couple years.  I'm not convinced either way, but I'm hoping AJ gets to play over him because he is too good not to play.  While also hoping JHol is better than we think.  I don't want to be JHol apologist, but I think some of the takes on him are reactionary.  

I just think his steady performance of the last few years is pretty underwhelming to the average fan.  I expect he will regress somewhat positively but if he was giving his career average 39.8% FG% and 36.4% 3pt% it would be better but not that exciting.  I think is also why teams have felt pretty free to move him mid-season.  Just think that is different than Delon as far as how much the fans would get behind him.  Hope your prediction plays out!

[Hawkmoor]

Murray is currently 7th in NBA plus-minus at +6.6 .  +3.4 on offense and +3.3 on defense.

Capela is the next closest Hawk at 45th ranking in NBA with +3.4  -2.2 on offense and +5.7 on defense.

Young is the next Hawk ranked 72nd  in NBA  at +1.1 with a +5.2 on offense and -4.0 on defense.

Thats the Hawks big 3 so far.  The biggest drop offs on defense occur whenever Young -4.0 or Justin Holiday -3.8 or on the floor.  The biggest gains on offense are when Young at + 5.2 or Murray at +3.4 are on the floor. 

 

[sturt]

3 hours ago, AHF said:

I'm also baffled by the argument that Nate giving lots of minutes to him is somehow not good proof that Nate likes him -- that goes double if someone believes Nate has better alternatives and is playing JHol over them.  In any case, I have suggested that Nate likes Justin and do think the fact that Justin is sitting at #7 in total minutes and mpg reflects his comfort with JHol on the court.  (He has played more than 30% more minutes than JJ for example).

I call your "baffled" and raise you a ...........

 

Sure, it's "good proof" if you can establish that Nate has a better (... and we all know that this part is important... we are talking about Nate "I Don't Trust Rooks" McMillan...) veteran... option.

You say "that goes double if someone believes Nate has better alternatives and is playing JDay over them."

Nahbabanah.

That "goes double if someone believes Nate believes that Nate has better alternatives."

Nate is Nate. Nate's gonna Nate.

Completely like him to not believe he has better alternatives until enough time has elapsed to build some trust/confidence. (And if we're honest, that's pretty much any head coach, or any of us in real life. AJ will eventually get there. Bud, I recall, drove many of us nuts that Prince didn't get minutes until after the ASG break. It's not just Nate.)

 

Get BogBog back, and watch JDay's minutes decline.

Get BogBog back plus at some point, see Nate get some confidence in his rookie wing?.... ...... watch JDay's minutes whittle down to that of a 3rd unit wing.

 

For now, there is no alternative in Nate's mind.

And I can't disagree, actually... AJ isn't just a rookie, he's one of the youngest players drafted this off-season. There's wisdom in not giving AJ too much. The surprise in how Nate's distributing minutes isn't about JDay's minutes. It's that he's giving the rookie so many minutes that he's cracked double digits per game (12 avg).

This early? Just 10 games into the season?

The writing is on the wall for Justin.

Could be that AJ's minutes-count is as much about Justin's decline as it is about the rookie's performance. One of Justin's hallmarks had always been that he's been good at on-ball defense, keeping his man in front of him. That hallmark took a hit in last night's game.

I know this much. Or I think I do. If there was some Nate quote that expressed explicit affection for Justin, I would have seen it quoted about three dozen times by now. AHF and Jay, in particular, seem to want to believe this so very badly. They could be right, of course. We can't read Nate's mind. But is there clear and present empirical Nate-generated (or Justin-generated for that matter) evidence. There is not.

 

 

 

 

[JayBirdHawk]

 

 

 

[JayBirdHawk]

 

 

[sturt]

43 minutes ago, Final_quest said:

His reputation two years ago was the Pacer's best wing defender, and that was when they were a top defensive team. 

Two years ago, he was an average defender on an average defensive team (15th).

One year ago, he was among the worst defenders on one of the league's worst defensive teams (28th). (And he went to SAC, and didn't impress there, either.)

 

But yes, three years ago, he was one of the Pacers' best defenders, and that was when they were a top defensive team. Three.

He was 30. He's 33 now, of course.

 

As I said earlier... we've all heard of "election deniers".... in this forum, we're dealing with "trend deniers."

Please take note, I'm not among those who have been here routinely dissing Justin's play this season. There's a reason for that. I want the trend to be wrong. I will take no joy in the trend continuing. I want Justin to be a version of PJ Tucker, having a completely unanticipated bouce-back season.

But I also won't be a denier. The trend is the trend. Is the trend.

[Final_quest]

39 minutes ago, AHF said:

I just think his steady performance of the last few years is pretty underwhelming to the average fan.  I expect he will regress somewhat positively but if he was giving his career average 39.8% FG% and 36.4% 3pt% it would be better but not that exciting.  I think is also why teams have felt pretty free to move him mid-season.  Just think that is different than Delon as far as how much the fans would get behind him.  Hope your prediction plays out!

I need to stop writing about Justin dang Holiday, but wanted to clarify.  I haven't really made a prediction on him.  The most I've said about him that resembles a prediction is that he's more likely to shoot at his average from the past couple seasons than whatever his low percentages have been over a couple games. 

Initially just wanted to let you know that one of the best Hawks analysts has been a fan of Justin and thinks he will win people over.  So that is really a Glen Willis prediction.

[JayBirdHawk]

3 minutes ago, Final_quest said:

I need to stop writing about Justin dang Holiday,

[Final_quest]

8 minutes ago, sturt said:

Two years ago, he was an average defender on an average defensive team (15th).

One year ago, he was among the worst defenders on one of the league's worst defensive teams (28th). (And he went to SAC, and didn't impress there, either.)

 

But yes, three years ago, he was one of the Pacers' best defenders, and that was when they were a top defensive team. Three.

He was 30. He's 33 now, of course.

 

As I said earlier... we've all heard of "election deniers".... in this forum, we're dealing with "trend deniers."

Please take note, I'm not among those who have been here routinely dissing Justin's play this season. There's a reason for that. I want the trend to be wrong. I will take no joy in the trend continuing. I want Justin to be a version of PJ Tucker, having a completely unanticipated bouce-back season.

But I also won't be a denier. The trend is the trend. Is the trend.

I've never denied a trend in him being less of a player than 3 years ago.  Just think you are reading too much into your numbers.  Take it up with Glen Willis:

[shakes]

Those uniforms Utah worse last night are definitely on the Mt. Rushmore of worst jerseys in NBA history.  

 

Surprising because I think Utah has consistently had some of the best uniforms in the league lately.