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On 12/6/2022 at 9:44 AM, Sothron said:

I don't know what to tell you. You can believe whatever you want certainly but I know from my source that Trae has been asking for more movement for two seasons and wanting to come off screens for catch and shoot for the same amount of time. 

Feel free to believe the worse in Trae if you want though.

This just isnt true and the numbers back it. They did a ton more off ball movement actions for him at the start of season but as season has gone on he has resorted to his old ways. He does not want to be an offball player

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1 hour ago, REHawksFan said:

This is basically what most of us have been saying.

1. Hawks have spacing issues because collectively they suck at shooting.

2. The your-turn my-turn offense is terrible and doesn't allow anyone to get into rhythm.

3. Trae has sucked (by his standards) for large portions of the season and it's likely due to 1 & 2 above.  

4. The onus is on Nate to figure this crap out OR on Landry / Travis to make roster changes to fix the weirdness.

Only quibble I have is with 3.  I don't think the shooting numbers are all about 1 and 2.  He has just been slumping from 3pt range badly this year on top of that.  

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Nothing really to see here.  I’ve never paid much mind to Trae’s shooting or scoring.  Hollinger isn’t a high-level ball guy.  He’s still talking about Trae off ball wtf.

If you’re a supporter of Trae’s he’s still the only guy in the league averaging 27 and 10 and he’s gonna have a couple weeks to shoot even more than @TheNorthCydeRises wants lol.  It’s been obvious his shot types haven’t changed from his preferences.  All his advanced metrics are similar to his career marks.  

Hollinger did make a point to highlight how frugal Ressler is tho lol.  That boy have nightmares about luxury taxes.  The Clint and DJ incentives I didn’t know of.  I like em.  Explains why DJ has taken (and made) some very out-of-character attempts.  He just raised his 3 point percentage to .366 I’m like when that happen?!?!

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4 minutes ago, benhillboy said:

Hollinger did make a point to highlight how frugal Ressler is tho lol.  That boy have nightmares about luxury taxes.  The Clint and DJ incentives I didn’t know of.  I like em.  Explains why DJ has taken (and made) some very out-of-character attempts.

Yeah, I applaud all shots at Ressler for avoiding the tax.  My level of annoyance with his tax evasion will sky rocket if he continues to be frugal in the upcoming years we traded away our first rounders.

I also didn't know about DJs incentives.  I found an article that references them (see below).  Crazy to me a guard in this modern NBA has an incentive to chuck threes -- Murray loves those middies more than I thought lol kinda neat the Spurs put some money on his development there though

  • $500k every season with a true shooting percentage above 58 percent
  • $500k for making 125-plus threes
  • $500K being selected to an All-Defensive Team

He's been making two threes a game when playing, but this is an aggregate total so his missed time will hurt him.  If he plays ~65 games this season, he has a good chance to get that one.  I really doubt he'll get 58% TS, doesn't get to the line enough.  All-defensive team is unlikely as well.  

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55 minutes ago, JeffS17 said:

Yeah, I applaud all shots at Ressler for avoiding the tax.  My level of annoyance with his tax evasion will sky rocket if he continues to be frugal in the upcoming years we traded away our first rounders.

I also didn't know about DJs incentives.  I found an article that references them (see below).  Crazy to me a guard in this modern NBA has an incentive to chuck threes -- Murray loves those middies more than I thought lol kinda neat the Spurs put some money on his development there though

  • $500k every season with a true shooting percentage above 58 percent
  • $500k for making 125-plus threes
  • $500K being selected to an All-Defensive Team

He's been making two threes a game when playing, but this is an aggregate total so his missed time will hurt him.  If he plays ~65 games this season, he has a good chance to get that one.  I really doubt he'll get 58% TS, doesn't get to the line enough.  All-defensive team is unlikely as well.  


I talked about the incentives for both DJ and CC back in October.

Screenshot_20221209_130404_Samsung Internet.jpg

 

 

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 When Atlanta's guards don't leverage each other

Something is off with the Hawks. The Trae Young-Nate McMillan kerfuffle -- first reported by The Athletic -- feels like something that hints at deeper issues, not an inconsequential one-off.

Atlanta has scored 113.7 points per 100 possessions with both Young and Dejounte Murray on the floor -- equivalent to the No. 8 overall offense. That's pretty good, but not great -- and probably not what the Hawks envisioned, considering they ranked No. 2 in offensive efficiency last season. The fit issues pairing two ball-dominant guards were obvious, but Young and Murray are talented enough to iron them out.

There were encouraging signs over Atlanta's first 10 games. Young was running off about 12 off-ball screens per 100 possessions, per Second Spectrum -- double his career rate. He wasn't just loitering near half-court, off your screen, when Murray ran the show. Young needed to bump that number closer to 20, but 12 was a good start.

Welp.

It's back down to Young's career norms, meaning he has basically stopped doing anything away from the ball. He's only setting about two off-ball screens per 100 possessions. There is way too much of this:

That is dull co-existence -- sharing space. They are not amplifying each other.

The Hawks can still produce good offense that way. Defenders would still stick to Young -- decluttering the paint -- if he laid down and napped at mid-court. Murray and Young are star shotmakers who can beat in-your-jersey defense.

The "your turn, my turn" stagnancy won't be good enough against the best teams. The Philadelphia 76ers face a higher-class version of this problem with Joel Embiid and James Harden, but at least those guys play different positions. One of them is an elite rim-protector. Young might be the worst heavy-minutes defender in the league.

Murray missing some time with an ankle injury further sets back the integration process. Keep an eye on the Hawks. They could teeter into instability.

 

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One thing I can say about Trae is that he gets knocked down and then he gets back up.  I always thought Cam was the opposite and struggled with negative self talk.  Trae has a strong internal self belief system.  If you don't develop that from a young age, it's extremely difficult to change. 

In our recent losses we've had leads in the 4th quarter.  I still believe this group can redeem themselves, and we aren't really behind in the standings yet.  We're only a couple games out of a top 4 seed.  If Capela was playing like a gimpy shell of himself, I wouldn't be optimistic.  He is playing at least at 80-85%, and then you have Bogi, AJ, and even Forrest sparking the bench. 

Last year we weren't as competitive in our losses when we were in our slump November through January.  Remember when they almost broke the team record for consecutive home losses?  I don't think this team has given up. 

Mentally this is a different team.  Trae, DJM, Bogi, and AJ have a winning mentality.  I'm giving them a chance to show us they can put together a successful scheme.  I'm giving Trae a chance to get back up from this slump.    

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On 12/9/2022 at 8:50 AM, REHawksFan said:

This is basically what most of us have been saying.

1. Hawks have spacing issues because collectively they suck at shooting.

2. The your-turn my-turn offense is terrible and doesn't allow anyone to get into rhythm.

3. Trae has sucked (by his standards) for large portions of the season and it's likely due to 1 & 2 above.  

4. The onus is on Nate to figure this crap out OR on Landry / Travis to make roster changes to fix the weirdness.

1. One is true because you can't replace Kevin for anyone other than an top end shooter or you make Capela's anti gravity an issue for not just Murray but also Trae. 

2. This offense will never change. No matter the coach. 

3. 1 more than 2. 2 been an issue but its gotten worse when you add Murray who's another PG to the mix.

4. This is clearly a Landry/Travis issue but the fix is obvious and it's massive. It's gonna take a significant player like KAT and another going to Minnesota like Murray 

Edited by NBASupes
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On 12/7/2022 at 1:16 PM, BudBall said:

I feel guilty not wanting to watch hawks due to how horrific Trae shooting is with all the bad shots and horrible defense. He is the best player we have had in a long time yet I have the urge for us to look into trades for him. 😔

He's an offensive juggernaut but when his offense isn't elite for whatever reason, he instantly becomes a liability because of his usage, lack of off ball movement and his defense. 

Trae is a strange player. He can carry your offense mainly by himself but you have to build it around him and you can't miss.

Edited by NBASupes
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6 hours ago, Diesel said:

 When Atlanta's guards don't leverage each other

Something is off with the Hawks. The Trae Young-Nate McMillan kerfuffle -- first reported by The Athletic -- feels like something that hints at deeper issues, not an inconsequential one-off.

Atlanta has scored 113.7 points per 100 possessions with both Young and Dejounte Murray on the floor -- equivalent to the No. 8 overall offense. That's pretty good, but not great -- and probably not what the Hawks envisioned, considering they ranked No. 2 in offensive efficiency last season. The fit issues pairing two ball-dominant guards were obvious, but Young and Murray are talented enough to iron them out.

There were encouraging signs over Atlanta's first 10 games. Young was running off about 12 off-ball screens per 100 possessions, per Second Spectrum -- double his career rate. He wasn't just loitering near half-court, off your screen, when Murray ran the show. Young needed to bump that number closer to 20, but 12 was a good start.

Welp.

It's back down to Young's career norms, meaning he has basically stopped doing anything away from the ball. He's only setting about two off-ball screens per 100 possessions. There is way too much of this:

That is dull co-existence -- sharing space. They are not amplifying each other.

The Hawks can still produce good offense that way. Defenders would still stick to Young -- decluttering the paint -- if he laid down and napped at mid-court. Murray and Young are star shotmakers who can beat in-your-jersey defense.

The "your turn, my turn" stagnancy won't be good enough against the best teams. The Philadelphia 76ers face a higher-class version of this problem with Joel Embiid and James Harden, but at least those guys play different positions. One of them is an elite rim-protector. Young might be the worst heavy-minutes defender in the league.

Murray missing some time with an ankle injury further sets back the integration process. Keep an eye on the Hawks. They could teeter into instability.

 

Good looking, D.  

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3 hours ago, NBASupes said:

He's an offensive juggernaut….

No.

His career assist to turnover ratio is 2.21.  This season it’s 2.6.  That’s  good for 43rd in the league.

Here is his career adjusted shooting:

1952445D-CC1D-4F8E-A475-F8650810214C.thumb.jpeg.419802e0cb2a23e97f371a48bb64169d.jpeg

His FT shooting has been 13% better than league average, FT rate 57% above.  These are literally the only areas he’s excelled in as a pro.

If that’s a “juggernaut” go look at the adjusted shooting of CP3, LeBron, or Kyrie and come back to me.  They’re Super Galactus.  Hell SGA has a better league-adjusted shooting profile and he’s been on a tank the majority of his career.

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9 hours ago, Diesel said:

 When Atlanta's guards don't leverage each other

Something is off with the Hawks. The Trae Young-Nate McMillan kerfuffle -- first reported by The Athletic -- feels like something that hints at deeper issues, not an inconsequential one-off.

Atlanta has scored 113.7 points per 100 possessions with both Young and Dejounte Murray on the floor -- equivalent to the No. 8 overall offense. That's pretty good, but not great -- and probably not what the Hawks envisioned, considering they ranked No. 2 in offensive efficiency last season. The fit issues pairing two ball-dominant guards were obvious, but Young and Murray are talented enough to iron them out.

There were encouraging signs over Atlanta's first 10 games. Young was running off about 12 off-ball screens per 100 possessions, per Second Spectrum -- double his career rate. He wasn't just loitering near half-court, off your screen, when Murray ran the show. Young needed to bump that number closer to 20, but 12 was a good start.

Welp.

It's back down to Young's career norms, meaning he has basically stopped doing anything away from the ball. He's only setting about two off-ball screens per 100 possessions. There is way too much of this:

That is dull co-existence -- sharing space. They are not amplifying each other.

The Hawks can still produce good offense that way. Defenders would still stick to Young -- decluttering the paint -- if he laid down and napped at mid-court. Murray and Young are star shotmakers who can beat in-your-jersey defense.

The "your turn, my turn" stagnancy won't be good enough against the best teams. The Philadelphia 76ers face a higher-class version of this problem with Joel Embiid and James Harden, but at least those guys play different positions. One of them is an elite rim-protector. Young might be the worst heavy-minutes defender in the league.

Murray missing some time with an ankle injury further sets back the integration process. Keep an eye on the Hawks. They could teeter into instability.

 

Yeah,  I noticed this. Trae has to trust his team more. This reminds me of the Micheal Jordan breakthrough year where he finally trusted Paxton to shoot the last shot.  It unlocked the Bulls. Trae has supreme confidence in himself and now he has to have supreme confidence in his team. He does not need to be Steph Curry, but he has hot to get off the ball a little earlier and stay active without the ball and trust that the ball will find the weak spot in the defense.  My guy will make the small adjustment in fue time. 

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3 hours ago, benhillboy said:

No.

His career assist to turnover ratio is 2.21.  This season it’s 2.6.  That’s  good for 43rd in the league.

Here is his career adjusted shooting:

1952445D-CC1D-4F8E-A475-F8650810214C.thumb.jpeg.419802e0cb2a23e97f371a48bb64169d.jpeg

His FT shooting has been 13% better than league average, FT rate 57% above.  These are literally the only areas he’s excelled in as a pro.

If that’s a “juggernaut” go look at the adjusted shooting of CP3, LeBron, or Kyrie and come back to me.  They’re Super Galactus.  Hell SGA has a better league-adjusted shooting profile and he’s been on a tank the majority of his career.

That's the most worrying part of his game -- if the whistles get tight, he's not an elite scorer.  It happened in some of the game in our playoff run in '21 and v Miami too.  His efficiency would benefit from him not needing to -- or not feeling like he needs to -- create every bucket.

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On 12/9/2022 at 9:50 AM, REHawksFan said:

This is basically what most of us have been saying.

1. Hawks have spacing issues because collectively they suck at shooting.

2. The your-turn my-turn offense is terrible and doesn't allow anyone to get into rhythm.

3. Trae has sucked (by his standards) for large portions of the season and it's likely due to 1 & 2 above.  

4. The onus is on Nate to figure this crap out OR on Landry / Travis to make roster changes to fix the weirdness.

These are good points and the article posted by @Diesel is another example of people, outside of us, seeing what's wrong.  What I really want to talk about is point #2.  The "turn taking" is something that I noticed in the preseason...and it appeared as though the only wrinkle added to our offense was staggering our PG minutes.

To point #1 though, this is side effect of the offense.  We DEAD LAST in the NBA in passing and below the league average by a laughable margin.  We're shooting a lot of contested shots because there is no movement in the offense.  The ball rarely swings so guys are not getting a ton of catch and shoot opportunities.  It's just a lot of 1 on 1 basketball.

On point #3, you're absolutely right.  For one he's taking a lot of contested shots - quite a few of them 3s with a hand in his face.  Again, the ball is not moving, there is no 1-2 synergy between DJM and Trae, so there are few opportunities to get Trae open jumpers.  Which is a clear indictment of this offense because we HAVE another guy who defenders have to respect AND can run the point.  Secondly, when we're struggling Trae tries to do too much...so a lot of his poor shot selection is coming at the most inopportune times.

Finally, on point #4...it's pretty much spelled out.  This offense works with good shooters and ONE primary ball-handler.  It's not going to work like this.

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21 hours ago, benhillboy said:

No.

His career assist to turnover ratio is 2.21.  This season it’s 2.6.  That’s  good for 43rd in the league.

Here is his career adjusted shooting:

1952445D-CC1D-4F8E-A475-F8650810214C.thumb.jpeg.419802e0cb2a23e97f371a48bb64169d.jpeg

His FT shooting has been 13% better than league average, FT rate 57% above.  These are literally the only areas he’s excelled in as a pro.

If that’s a “juggernaut” go look at the adjusted shooting of CP3, LeBron, or Kyrie and come back to me.  They’re Super Galactus.  Hell SGA has a better league-adjusted shooting profile and he’s been on a tank the majority of his career.

For the reasons we have discussed, you should be comparing apples to apples by looking at AST% and TO%.  As we've mentioned while looking at CP3, his A/TO is inflated due to taking fewer shots.  When you look at simple A/TO, you penalize guys whose teams rely on them to create their own offense while boosting people who are marginal contributors as scorers.  By looking at AST%/TO%, you equalize for their role as a scorer or non-scorer.  It may well still be your view that he is inferior to the guys you've mentioned, but you will at least be directly comparing them instead of doing the apples to oranges bit.

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6 minutes ago, Spud2nique said:

Trae and I are pissy today. I agree.

 

 

   

So, a couple things ....

1. I'm pissed off lately too.  Not sure how to shake it other than a series of Hawks wins buuut....

2. Throwing the ball into the stands has been a fine for a couple years now.  Trae gotta do better, know better.

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