Welcome A.J. Griffin

[AHF]

21 minutes ago, Gray Mule said:

Name me any NBA player, ever, when he was 19 years old and clost to the same size as AJ Griffin and tell me that he was so much better and I'll not believe you.

AJ is special.  I'm so happy that he's a Hawk.  Hopefully, for many years he will be here and be a part of that great championship team from Atlanta.

LeBron is a no brainer but I'm not sure he qualifies as "close to the same size" in terms of either height or weight.  

Both Griffin and Kobe were 6'6'' and Kobe kind of dominates in every category other than shooting %s (including the advanced metrics which include that as a big part of their calculation).  

Note that among advanced metrics that PER, WS/48 and BPM are per minute or per possession numbers (and thus shouldn't be affected by Griff only having played half the season) but WS and VORP are cumulative and so can't be compared apples to apples unless  you prorate Griff's numbers over a full season which is not done here.

Check out how nicely he compares to Devin Booker:

and Bradley Beal:

Griffin is really impressing.

[Final_quest]

I did predict AJ would have a higher VORP than Okongwu:

[marco102]

 

Edited January 20, 2023 by marco102

[Gray Mule]

So, who do we see, about the same size, at 19, who was so much better?  Nope.  Maybe some better but not so much better that there is no comparison.

AJ Griffin may fall on his face and be terrible the remainder of the season.  I don't expect the NBA to "suddenly" discover how to stop him cold.  In fact, I expect him to improve.

Bottom line:  He's good and he's a Hawk!!

  GO ATL HAWKS !!

[marco102]

Shooting 48,2% from field, 39.5% from three, and 88.9% from the line. 

Someone else said this, but he very well could have a 50, 40, 90 season as a rookie. I know it's on low volume, but how often has that been done?

He needs to get his free throw rate up a beat before I think he can turn into a true superstar, but that could just be him buying into his role as a rookie.  

The kid is special!

[bleachkit]

23 minutes ago, marco102 said:

Shooting 48,2% from field, 39.5% from three, and 88.9% from the line. 

Someone else said this, but he very well could have a 50, 40, 90 season as a rookie. I know it's on low volume, but how often has that been done?

He needs to get his free throw rate up a beat before I think he can turn into a true superstar, but that could just be him buying into his role as a rookie.  

The kid is special!

He needs more shots. Screw paying your dues and all that. 

[marco102]

15 minutes ago, bleachkit said:

He needs more shots. Screw paying your dues and all that. 

He hesitates sometimes instead of pulling the trigger. It's a good trait to have because he takes good shots.

Most superstars are ready to pull that trigger with the slightest opening though.  I think he'll get there with more experience as far as being more aggressive about taking his shot.

[JeffS17]

He is special, an unexpected bright light for this season.  I don’t even know what a good comp is for him in the league, he has size, a deep bag and is a great shooter.  This might sound like a weird comp but his game reminds me of Bojan Bogi, but AJ has more upside imo 

[marco102]

 

[marco102]

I'm just stealing Grant's stats...lol, but this is super impressive. 

He needs to take more shots and our guards need to do a better job of getting him the ball on time when he flashes open.

[JayBirdHawk]

12 minutes ago, marco102 said:

I'm just stealing Grant's stats...lol, but this is super impressive. 

He needs to take more shots and our guards need to do a better job of getting him the ball on time when he flashes open.

we Nate needs to be more intentional in running plays for him to get him open.

[Atlantaholic]

Too early to say say what AJ will turn into. He has been extremely efficient while relying mostly on jumpers which is very impressive, on the other hand if you look at his numbers as a starter (53% TS 30 mpg in 10 starts) his efficiency hasn't scaled with more minutes and usage.  He's for sure been one of the best rookies though and even in the unlikely event what we are seeing from him is more or less what he'll be throughout his entire tenure as a Hawk it's still a great pick.

[909]

22 hours ago, JayBirdHawk said:

we Nate needs to be more intentional in running plays for him to get him open.

It would be helpful if certain guards for the Hawks wouldn’t be freezing him out. Certain players know what they are doing. The forwards can’t pass and the guards are only looking for highlights most of the time. For this offense to click they need about 28 to 30 assists per game, not 23 to 24.

[909]

He is not Desmond Bane, but he could have a similar impact.

[TheNorthCydeRises]

Here's what I like most about AJ. The shot making is borderline elite, from just about every portion on the floor.

 

He finishes well at the rim. He can get to and make his floater.  Hid midrange game off the dribble is strong. And we know his 3 ball is on target.  As a scorer, he has the total package.  He's going to be a very good pro on the offensive side on the ball for many years to come.

[TheNorthCydeRises]

Kia Rookie Ladder: AJ Griffin finding his rhythm in Atlanta | NBA.com

[TheNorthCydeRises]

24 minutes ago, 909 said:

It would be helpful if certain guards for the Hawks wouldn’t be freezing him out. Certain players know what they are doing. The forwards can’t pass and the guards are only looking for highlights most of the time. For this offense to click they need about 28 to 30 assists per game, not 23 to 24.

For a team to average 28 - 30 assists per game, you need everyone passing the ball.

Our starting backcourt averages 9.9 and 6.1 assists per game, respectively.  That's the top guard duo in the league, from an assist standpoint.  The highest next assist person is at 2.9

So if you want more team assists, the team as a whole have to produce them.

Having said that, the people that play alongside AJ, need to look to get him more touches and shots, especially when he's producing.

[TheNorthCydeRises]

32 minutes ago, 909 said:

It would be helpful if certain guards for the Hawks wouldn’t be freezing him out. Certain players know what they are doing. The forwards can’t pass and the guards are only looking for highlights most of the time. For this offense to click they need about 28 to 30 assists per game, not 23 to 24.

 

Hawks are 24th in assists per game, despite having the top assisting backcourt in the NBA.

Sounds like a team offense problem.  An offense that promotes exploiting mismatches with ISO play.

[benhillboy]

2 hours ago, Atlantaholic said:

Too early to say say what AJ will turn into. He has been extremely efficient while relying mostly on jumpers which is very impressive, on the other hand if you look at his numbers as a starter (53% TS 30 mpg in 10 starts) his efficiency hasn't scaled with more minutes and usage.  He's for sure been one of the best rookies though and even in the unlikely event what we are seeing from him is more or less what he'll be throughout his entire tenure as a Hawk it's still a great pick.

His maturation is gonna be a joy to watch but I also doubt his efficiency can scale up with more minutes.  I mean damn he’s pushing 50/40/90, there’s really nowhere to go but down lol.  I certainly don’t wanna limit him but his current role, minutes, and attempts are just perfect IMO, so many NBA players are deployed horribly to their teams detriment.

I feel for Kyle Korver, came terribly close to 50/40/90 in his AS season.  That’s just an insane bar for someone playing starter minutes.  I thought KD did multiple times but only once.

AJ obviously has the shooting down.  His next strides to attain more minutes that help the team win is a little more cutting, being able to run a little initiation, and improving his lateral foot speed on D.  I wanna see him mix it up in transition too with the threes and taking it to the cup a la Buddy.

One thing I can say for players in this era, they improve beyond anyone’s wildest projections and pretty rapidly (SGA, Haliburton, Jimmy, PG-13, and Kawhi before them).  I wouldn’t be surprised if in 5 years AJ is a Middleton clone.  He certainly has the IQ to improve his defense to a solid team level if he still has struggles individually.

He and Walker Kessler on rookie deals is the stuff championships are made of.  Not here lol but on a team with additional high value rookie deals in the core like the Eastern Conference run that seems 10 years ago smh.  I’m looking at the Grizzlies, they better make something shake before Ja and Bane are up to get paid.  After that it’s over in their market.

Edited January 25, 2023 by benhillboy

[benhillboy]

Just realized Middleton missed out on 50/40/90 by .003 in his FG%.  The horror! 

Edited January 25, 2023 by benhillboy