Hawks looking to move John Collins? This again?

[macdaddy]

19 minutes ago, JeffS17 said:

You don't get two first rounders for waiting for him to prove out as a very good player lol... right now he's a gamble we might have to take if you are to believe this report:

https://www.si.com/nba/hawks/news/avoiding-luxury-tax-remains-top-priority-for-atlanta-hawks

Ressler itching to save money again so we are going to have to take big risks if we want to contend.  You can't simultaneously take a conservative approach with player evaluation, stay under the tax, and compete for a chip.  

All of this is based on this one report that starts "Rival NBA executives believe Atlanta...."  which is basically saying other teams are guessing what Atlanta wants to do.   But they have no clue.

All summer is JC for Ayton, JC for Simmons, JC for Darko milicic and then out of nowhere we land Murray.  Keep JC, Extend Hunter, Trade Huerter.   How many Rival NBA execs predicted that?

But yeah i'm super concerned if we keep sending out talent for picks and average players.  If you're going to save money you at least have to find guys like Portis or Tucker who are going to give you huge minutes and solid play for peanuts.  

[AHF]

43 minutes ago, JeffS17 said:

You don't get two first rounders for waiting for him to prove out as a very good player lol... right now he's a gamble we might have to take if you are to believe this report:

https://www.si.com/nba/hawks/news/avoiding-luxury-tax-remains-top-priority-for-atlanta-hawks

Ressler itching to save money again so we are going to have to take big risks if we want to contend.  You can't simultaneously take a conservative approach with player evaluation, stay under the tax, and compete for a chip.  

That is an entirely different point.  I agree you buy at a discount when there is risk baked in.  But you have to make that assessment and predict what you see from him in the future.  If you believe he is now a .650% ts% scorer going forward then buying him now would be a great discount.  If you think he is the guy he was before this season, you would be buying high and paying a premium.  
 

As for the picks, I don’t put much value on picks from Cleveland.  They will be 20 something picks, imo.  Minnesota picks are more interesting. 
 

I’m not saying that Lauri and two firsts is not the right move.  It could be.  But I am more skeptical that Lauri can keep up his amazing start to this season over the long term.  Feels more like Bogi when he was hot for two months.

[JeffS17]

41 minutes ago, AHF said:

If you think he is the guy he was before this season, you would be buying high and paying a premium.

We don't need to speculate because there's an offer out there, allegedly.  It's lauri + two firsts... if he was being priced on his production so far this year, we'd be the ones attaching a pick because JC is more expensive and not as good.  This price for Lauri is not at a premium at all... this price indicates he's a measurably worse player than JC.  

[hylndr11]

1 hour ago, JeffS17 said:

You don't get two first rounders for waiting for him to prove out as a very good player lol... right now he's a gamble we might have to take if you are to believe this report:

https://www.si.com/nba/hawks/news/avoiding-luxury-tax-remains-top-priority-for-atlanta-hawks

Ressler itching to save money again so we are going to have to take big risks if we want to contend.  You can't simultaneously take a conservative approach with player evaluation, stay under the tax, and compete for a chip.  

ressler must have changed his mind or was straight lying before.  I get it we underperformed last year.  I stll dont see how milwaukee as a market goes way into the tax.  But then again I keep hearing every year we are about to get this huge bump in TV money so we wont have to pay the tax.  

[AHF]

3 hours ago, JeffS17 said:

We don't need to speculate because there's an offer out there, allegedly.  It's lauri + two firsts... if he was being priced on his production so far this year, we'd be the ones attaching a pick because JC is more expensive and not as good.  This price for Lauri is not at a premium at all... this price indicates he's a measurably worse player than JC.  

Fair.  It is worth noting that his current GM thinks he is that much worse than JC.

[AtLaS]

4 hours ago, AHF said:

That is an entirely different point.  I agree you buy at a discount when there is risk baked in.  But you have to make that assessment and predict what you see from him in the future.  If you believe he is now a .650% ts% scorer going forward then buying him now would be a great discount.  If you think he is the guy he was before this season, you would be buying high and paying a premium.  
 

As for the picks, I don’t put much value on picks from Cleveland.  They will be 20 something picks, imo.  Minnesota picks are more interesting. 
 

I’m not saying that Lauri and two firsts is not the right move.  It could be.  But I am more skeptical that Lauri can keep up his amazing start to this season over the long term.  Feels more like Bogi when he was hot for two months.

I am also skeptical, BUT If they are throwing in two firsts (even if late)?   That is a tough one.  We get a much smaller contract, 2 tradeable assets, and still receive similar (potentially better) on court production.  If he doesn't regress this would be a huge win.  I do expect some regression, though.

I don't think there is any debate that Lauri is a better fit offensively with Capela as our starting C.  Defensively Collins is better.  

Lauri is shooting his career average from 3, but he is shooting significantly better from 2 so that could regress.

They are similar rebounders.  

The question is do we weight Collins defense and lob threat better than Lauri's more prolific 3pt shooting, smaller contract AND two late 1sts?   I'm not sure I do, and am starting to talk myself into this deal.

I'm a huge believer in floor spacing.  It makes life easier for the entire team, but especially Trae and Murray.  Having Lauri over Collins on the perimeter is a massive upgrade.  Even though Collins has turned into a solid 3pt shooter, he's only attempting 3 per game and teams aren't really worried about him out there.

But then we lose a bit defensively.  It's a tough call but I would probably roll the dice.  I don't see any deals better than this one and if Collins continues his bad streak he's going to be seen as a bad contract and lose a lot of value. 

[Spud2nique]

Not gonna lie, salaried almost matching identically at 41 mill, 400k off..  

Trae/DM/Hunter/Crowder/Ayton

AHol/AJ/JJ/OO/Cap

 

Follow up trade : Possibly look to swing Cap for a vet SF/PF and move OO to 2nd unit starting center.

Ps I was hacked. 

[Diesel]

8 minutes ago, Spud2nique said:

Not gonna lie, salaried almost matching identically at 41 mill, 400k off..  

Trae/DM/Hunter/Crowder/Ayton

AHol/AJ/JJ/OO/Cap

 

Follow up trade : Possibly look to swing Cap for a vet SF/PF and move OO to 2nd unit starting center.

Ps I was hacked. 

Are you kidding.

Cap is playing great.   and this... 

[NBASupes]

58 minutes ago, Spud2nique said:

Not gonna lie, salaried almost matching identically at 41 mill, 400k off..  

Trae/DM/Hunter/Crowder/Ayton

AHol/AJ/JJ/OO/Cap

 

Follow up trade : Possibly look to swing Cap for a vet SF/PF and move OO to 2nd unit starting center.

Ps I was hacked. 

Ayton hasn't exactly been a world beater of late while Capela has

[ShooterSays]

 

[Gray Mule]

On 11/21/2022 at 1:30 PM, Sothron said:

 

Utah already offered us Lauri plus two of the Twolves first rounders for Collins.

Not that it really matters but I approve of this trade.

I don't want to lose John, but if we must - - - - 

[Gray Mule]

In the Hawks lineup, AJ Griffin replaces Justin Holiday.  Barring injuries, this makes Justin expendable.  Wonder what he would bring on the open market?  Any ideas?

[sturt]

10 minutes ago, Gray Mule said:

Any ideas?

Search on "sturt" and "Justin"... bet you find something(s)... hehehehe

[Spud2nique]

37 minutes ago, Gray Mule said:

Not that it really matters but I approve of this trade.

I don't want to lose John, but if we must - - - - 

I respect our players but same Gramps. I don’t discount what JC brings whatsoever, he’s a very capable player, but Lauri and 2 firsts? I mean, if that’s true, I would pull the lever on this one.

[Spud2nique]

35 minutes ago, Gray Mule said:

Wonder what he would bring on the open market?  Any ideas?

If I had to guess, another expiring deal like this own, maybe a big body that makes around 5 or 6 million or whatever JHol makes. Possibly a 2nd round pick.
 

Example is a Derrick Favors who makes 10 but then we would throw in a mini contract to even it out  maybe? 
 

Few other names:

 

Jeff Green Nuggs

Jax Hayes Pels 2023/24 qualifying offer

Alex Le(uhhuhhhhhhughuuhu)…n …sorry I was choking. 
 

Taj Gibson- Wiz

Deandre Jordan- Nuggs

 

Slim pickins out there gramps. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Spud2nique]

42 minutes ago, sturt said:

Search on "sturt" and "Justin"... bet you find something(s)... hehehehe

I took care of gramps!

-Schlud

[ShooterSays]

What the F is going on and why are all of our players in trade rumors lol. Probably not the best look for a team that you're thinking is a contender. That luxury tax must have Ressler shook.

[JeffS17]

18 hours ago, AHF said:

Fair.  It is worth noting that his current GM thinks he is that much worse than JC.

Based on Fischers reporting, it sounds like the Hawks potentially made the JC offer which makes more sense we would start by asking for two firsts.  No idea how credible he is though 

[sturt]

Fischer claims UTA wasn't interested to include Markkanen.

11 minutes ago, Spud2nique said:

Example is a Derrick Favors who makes 10 but then we would throw in a mini contract to even it out  maybe? 

 

Um.

 

 

[JeffS17]

3 minutes ago, ShooterSays said:

What the F is going on and why are all of our players in trade rumors lol. Probably not the best look for a team that you're thinking is a contender. That luxury tax must have Ressler shook.

I’ll remain hopeful we have positive on-court intentions until something happens but the Heurter trade has me worried.  Hoping the FO either has a good move lined up (Murray trade style) or we do nothing at all.  An edge move to shed salary will make me question if I want to renew my tickets next year