Hawks looking to move John Collins? This again?

[hylndr11]

1 hour ago, JayBirdHawk said:

Nope. Take a look at Lauri's minutes and shot attempts per game in his 1st 3 years. He was the #7 pick and played lots of minutes.

Im not talking about compared to Lauri. Im talking about compared to himself earlier - his role is different in our current off compared to what he did early on, got more opportunities.

[AHF]

57 minutes ago, warcore said:

I think he's just saying John had a bigger role then than he does now (not a bigger role than Lauri)

Yeah.  To me valuing Lauri for what he is doing right now is like valuing JC when he was putting up 20/10.  Much easier to do that as the team's second option than the team's 4th option.  There may be some sour grapes from people if Lauri goes back to being the 13.6 ppg / 5.3 rpg guy he was his last year in Chicago and the defense suffers a real hit from his play.  I think you need to adjust expectations for his career best hot streak to start the year and for his role.

1 hour ago, REHawksFan said:

Something to keep in mind with JC.....this is the 4th straight season of declining offensive production.  I know it's early in the season, but the trend has been ongoing since the 2019-2020 season.  So my question for JC and the Hawks isn't so much about the ability to re-establish the dominance of his early career but rather whether there's a role for him on the current version of the Hawks.

Season	Age	Tm	Lg	Pos	G	GS	MP	FG	FGA	FG%	3P	3PA	3P%	2P	2PA	2P%	eFG%	FT	FTA	FT%	ORB	DRB	TRB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	PTS
2019-20	22	ATL	NBA	PF	41	41	33.2	8.6	14.8	.583	1.4	3.6	.401	7.2	11.2	.642	.632	2.9	3.7	.800	2.8	7.3	10.1	1.5	0.8	1.6	1.8	3.4	21.6
2020-21	23	ATL	NBA	PF	63	63	29.3	6.8	12.2	.556	1.3	3.3	.399	5.5	8.9	.615	.610	2.7	3.2	.833	1.9	5.5	7.4	1.2	0.5	1.0	1.3	3.1	17.6
2021-22	24	ATL	NBA	PF	54	53	30.8	6.3	11.9	.526	1.2	3.3	.364	5.1	8.7	.588	.576	2.5	3.1	.793	1.7	6.1	7.8	1.8	0.6	1.0	1.1	3.0	16.2
2022-23	25	ATL	NBA	PF	16	16	31.8	4.8	9.6	.494	0.7	2.9	.234	4.1	6.7	.607	.529	2.2	2.4	.921	1.4	6.4	7.9	1.1	0.7	1.3	1.6	3.3	12.4

Why does anyone think he'll all of a sudden regain his 2019 and earlier form on this Hawks team?  I'm not talking about his ability to do so as a player, but the ability for him to impact THIS TEAM offensively??  

I fully agree.  He will never regain his high production numbers as long as he is playing with a center like CC who prevents him from being the team's primary roll man in the PNR.  

1 hour ago, hylndr11 said:

All above is true in keeping context with the past of Mark and JC, but remember JC also had a bigger role in his earlier years and we have already broken down why he isnt getting as much off this year, plus his rebounding also will go down with a healthy Clint and DJ - which is the key, the benefits of JC in our current scenario are outwieghted by Mark because with him playing next to a healthy clint and DJ he is 7 feet as well, he doesnt have to worry about rebounding quite as much but if he has to we will have nice length and size for this, but his offensive diversity in our current iteration of the hawks, being healthy clint and Dj primarlily - makes sense. When u tack on some picks and cheaper contract its def worth heavily considering.   WIth a healthy clint and DJ collins skillset is not being utilized to what it should be, or used to be, on another team, he can help another team more than he can help us, and its really fair to let him do that.   Mark is just a better fit currently.

This is definitely the case for making the deal.  Cheaper contract should allow you to add 9M in salary and still be under the cap.  Picks add more talent down the line.  Lauri fits better offensively with CC.  Is that worth the hit to the defense (I'm including rebounding as part of defense)?  That is the big question along with the question of "what other offers are out there"?

[hylndr11]

5 minutes ago, Plainview1981 said:

The main thing this team needs right now is scoring and shooting from the bench.

Bench scoring you say ? Im hearing now that the hawks are going to part with one of our big contracts in bogi, clint or john. because we are hard avoiding the tax.  More likely it will be bogi.  Just rumors but its out there. FYI

[JayBirdHawk]

47 minutes ago, hylndr11 said:

Im not talking about compared to Lauri. Im talking about compared to himself earlier - his role is different in our current off compared to what he did early on, got more opportunities.

@warcore noted. I misread your post.

[JayBirdHawk]

We forget how bad our defense was last season. Trae will ALWAYS have his defensive struggles, so surrounding him with defenders has always been the plan.

I think if Trae most of all gets his offense on track, the rest will follow.

The bench has also been our biggest non-factor.

[Gray Mule]

Hawks have an offer?

Trade our PF for their PF and we get 2 1st round picks?

Hawks get a PF that is 2 years younger - - Who makes $7 million less - - That is 2" taller - - That shoots better than our PF?

And we worry that he can't play defense?  Please tell me that this isn't a serious offer!!

[JayBirdHawk]

[Sothron]

2 hours ago, Gray Mule said:

Hawks have an offer?

Trade our PF for their PF and we get 2 1st round picks?

Hawks get a PF that is 2 years younger - - Who makes $7 million less - - That is 2" taller - - That shoots better than our PF?

And we worry that he can't play defense?  Please tell me that this isn't a serious offer!!

They are the same age actually GM. He is only shooting threes this season better than JC. JC is a better player in every possible way than Lauri. Lauri is a decent player whose having a career year but he is honestly nowhere near as good as JC is as a player.

[JTB]

8 hours ago, AHF said:

Yeah.  To me valuing Lauri for what he is doing right now is like valuing JC when he was putting up 20/10.  Much easier to do that as the team's second option than the team's 4th option. 

Please…let’s not go down this road of Collins and “second option”…..when Collins is good at something I have no problem acknowledging it and giving him kudos. But no one can factually state that Collins can be any teams 2nd option. 2nd option and Collins do not go together cause if it did Schlenk wouldn’t have traded for Murray or been looking so hard for another player who can actually create and go get bucket at will or at least pull his shot off in tight coverage. Collins doesn’t check any of those boxes and the one season he did avg 20 & 10 we really need to give our superstar point guard his kudos for putting Collins in the situation to drop a 20 & 10 cause without Trae that 20 & 10 season from Collins doesn’t exist.

5 hours ago, JayBirdHawk said:

Agree with McMillan and it all sounds good to me. Sounds like there’s no big concern from the coaching staff with Collins shooting woes since his effort and defense has been good despite this …and if that’s true fantastic. I will lower my offensive expectations for Collins scoring numbers  within this offense.

Reading between the lines….Collins role has changed tremendously with  Murray’s arrival so that’s great and gives me a better understanding what he’s hear for

Edited November 22, 2022 by JTB

[JTB]

Sounds good to me Nate! Let’s see it.

I think Collins should launch more 3s as well since he’s more so a shooter offensively on this team now.

Hopefully Nate and his staff designs more plays to allow Collins to take at least 5 or 6 threes per game.

[Gray Mule]

12 hours ago, Sothron said:

They are the same age actually GM. He is only shooting threes this season better than JC. JC is a better player in every possible way than Lauri. Lauri is a decent player whose having a career year but he is honestly nowhere near as good as JC is as a player.

Same age?  When I checked on their names on their team's roster, Lauri was listed as a 23 year old and Collins was listed as 25.  I didn't know.  I just posted what was listed.

"If it sounds too good to be true, it probably is!"  I want us to keep Collins because I believe that he is good.  His defense has improved.  We needed this.   His three point shooting is coming around.

[JTB]

Y’all crazy as hell!….this ain’t got nothing to do with more FG attempts lol. This guy is just better than JC offensively. Really hard to believe we’d pass up on guy with this kind of length at 7 foot and can stroke it like this but I get it we need defense from JC….but still Lauri can drop buckets don’t be ignorant to the obvious!

 

 

 

 

Edited November 22, 2022 by JTB

[kg01]

Recency bias in full effect.  There's a reason he was shipped outta CHI.

[AtLaS]

17 minutes ago, kg01 said:

Recency bias in full effect.  There's a reason he was shipped outta CHI.

Of all the deals I've seen for Collins, this is one of the better ones IMO.  Doesn't mean I'd do it, but it's interesting to think about.  

It's trading defense for offense.  Lauri fits better offensively in our system and would space the floor better.  Collins is the better defensive player.  Markennan's contract is a lot better.

I think as Hawks fans, we have gotten accustomed to watching a top 5 offense and being so efficient that a middle of the pack offense is hard to watch.  But, we've gotten a lot better defensively which means we are going to play in more ugly, lower scoring games.  The end result is the only thing that matters.

Regardless, there is no rush to do this deal.  We need to see how the team is playing in 1-2 months after Bogi returns and hopefully Trae has a mean reversion to his normal efficiency.  Bogi is already going to improve our offense and hurt our defense.  

 

 

 

[hylndr11]

17 minutes ago, AtLaS said:

Of all the deals I've seen for Collins, this is one of the better ones IMO.  Doesn't mean I'd do it, but it's interesting to think about.  

It's trading defense for offense.  Lauri fits better offensively in our system and would space the floor better.  Collins is the better defensive player.  Markennan's contract is a lot better.

I think as Hawks fans, we have gotten accustomed to watching a top 5 offense and being so efficient that a middle of the pack offense is hard to watch.  But, we've gotten a lot better defensively which means we are going to play in more ugly, lower scoring games.  The end result is the only thing that matters.

Regardless, there is no rush to do this deal.  We need to see how the team is playing in 1-2 months after Bogi returns and hopefully Trae has a mean reversion to his normal efficiency.  Bogi is already going to improve our offense and hurt our defense.  

 

 

 

Bogi def isnt that bad when hes fully healthy, its just only really been during the ECF run where we got to see some decent def from him. 

[Gray Mule]

After watching the film (above) please remind me again why we don't want this player.  Maybe he plays no defense but I see that he can grab a rebound or two.

I have no idea how he would fit.  Maybe not at all.  Why did he get traded from Chicago?  Seems to be something going on here that I don't understand.  I don't want to trade John but it may happen over my objections because I don't have a lot of pull with the Hawks front office.

Gotta quit worrying about John and worry about the coming Kings!

GO ATL HAWKS !!

[macdaddy]

46 minutes ago, kg01 said:

Recency bias in full effect.  There's a reason he was shipped outta CHI.

I don't know maybe.   But Cleveland got better when he got there, Utah got better when he got there.  Despite the little Derozan bump after Lauri left to get bulls fans excited, they are still bad.  

I used to think he was a middling euro big but i'm starting to be convinced otherwise. 

[AHF]

1 hour ago, JTB said:

Y’all crazy as hell!….this ain’t got nothing to do with more FG attempts lol. This guy is just better than JC offensively. Really hard to believe we’d pass up on guy with this kind of length at 7 foot and can stroke it like this but I get it we need defense from JC….but still Lauri can drop buckets don’t be ignorant to the obvious!

 

 

 

 

Has nothing to do with field goal attempts but he hasn’t averaged 15 points in the last three years.  
 

Has nothing to do with him being hot but he is destroying his previous career numbers with his scoring efficiency.

What I hear from that is that you think he will be the guy he is right now for the rest of his career.  My only point is I would pump the brakes and let him prove that out over a larger sample size.  He has never done this before.

[REHawksFan]

30 minutes ago, AHF said:

Has nothing to do with field goal attempts but he hasn’t averaged 15 points in the last three years.  
 

Has nothing to do with him being hot but he is destroying his previous career numbers with his scoring efficiency.

What I hear from that is that you think he will be the guy he is right now for the rest of his career.  My only point is I would pump the brakes and let him prove that out over a larger sample size.  He has never done this before.

The counter to this is obviously that we can say the same about JC but in reverse.  Do we let the season play out and see if JC continues the downward trend over a larger sample size and thus destroys any trade value he has?  I think we both agree that the likelihood of JC (playing on this team) going back to the 20/10 player he was in 2018-2019 is highly unlikely. 

Maybe Lauri isn't really the player he is this season.  Or maybe he is and is just not able to show it until he got to Utah.  No matter what the Hawks do, they have to answer the question of whether the JC issue is a JC issue or a Hawks issue that JC is just suffering through.  In other words, do we change out the player and get the same results?  Is JC's decline a product of the Hawks offense (playing with Trae, playing under Nate, playing with Clint, etc...) or a sign that JC is diminishing as a player?  

IF the answer is on the Hawks (most likely imo), then the next question is, "Is Lauri (or anyone else they look to bring in) different enough from JC skill wise to make the outcome any different?"  

Devil you know vs the Devil you don't deal.  

My view is the Hawks need to swing for the fences and try something different because I just don't believe in the long-term success of this team.  More so than any other recent Hawks team.  So for me, I think they need to shake things up. But I understand many of you don't agree with that.  

Edited November 22, 2022 by REHawksFan

[JeffS17]

45 minutes ago, AHF said:

My only point is I would pump the brakes and let him prove that out over a larger sample size.

You don't get two first rounders for waiting for him to prove out as a very good player lol... right now he's a gamble we might have to take if you are to believe this report:

https://www.si.com/nba/hawks/news/avoiding-luxury-tax-remains-top-priority-for-atlanta-hawks

Ressler itching to save money again so we are going to have to take big risks if we want to contend.  You can't simultaneously take a conservative approach with player evaluation, stay under the tax, and compete for a chip.