Hawks looking to move John Collins? This again?

[AHF]

3 minutes ago, JeffS17 said:

And why would we decline that?  If that's true, it doesn't really make sense to me at all... why would we decline and why would Utah give up picks for JC?

Based on what sothron said earlier I think that would be the case because:

• JC is a much better defender than Lauri
• JC has been better by basically every offensive and defensive stat than Lauri

FG%

3pt%

Rebounding

Assists

Steals + Blocks

Points Per Game

TS%

• JC crushes Lauri by every advanced metric even though they have basically played the exact same number of minutes

PER

OWS

DWS

OBPM

DBPM

VORP

These aren't even close.

Now if you look only at this season, JC has started slow and Lauri is having a career best year.  But it is easy to make the case for JC based on the larger data set and the difference in terms of defensive impact.

[JTB]

6 minutes ago, JeffS17 said:

And why would we decline that?  If that's true, it doesn't really make sense to me at all... why would we decline and why would Utah give up picks for JC?

My thoughts exactly! I know Soths source is real but that offer for JC is massive and I’m sorry to the JC fans (I like him too ) but I’m taking that deal and not looking back.

we get worse defensively while getting better offensively. Big possibility we are more well rounded then you get the two first rd picks thrown on top and it’s a no brainer.
 

only way Collins makes me rethink any of it is if he finds his shot, his role within our offense.

[JTB]

1 minute ago, AHF said:

Based on what sothron said earlier I think that would be the case because:

• JC is a much better defender than Lauri
• JC has been better by basically every offensive and defensive stat than Lauri

FG%

3pt%

Rebounding

Assists

Steals + Blocks

Points Per Game

TS%

• JC crushes Lauri by every advanced metric even though they have basically played the exact same number of minutes

PER

OWS

DWS

OBPM

DBPM

VORP

These aren't even close.

Now if you look only at this season, JC has started slow and Lauri is having a career best year.  But it is easy to make the case for JC based on the larger data set and the difference in terms of defensive impact.

This is why it’s not good to compare careers until it’s all said and done. Lauri is a better offensive player that Collins. He can even put the ball on the floor better than Collins though no where near as athletic. The stats don’t tell the whole story here.

Defensively and rebounding JC has him beat all day! 

[JeffS17]

11 minutes ago, AHF said:

Based on what sothron said earlier I think that would be the case because:

• JC is a much better defender than Lauri
• JC has been better by basically every offensive and defensive stat than Lauri

FG%

3pt%

Rebounding

Assists

Steals + Blocks

Points Per Game

TS%

• JC crushes Lauri by every advanced metric even though they have basically played the exact same number of minutes

PER

OWS

DWS

OBPM

DBPM

VORP

These aren't even close.

Now if you look only at this season, JC has started slow and Lauri is having a career best year.  But it is easy to make the case for JC based on the larger data set and the difference in terms of defensive impact.

The question I'm asking is more around what the Jazz goals are going forward (tank? rebuild? make playoffs?).  But even though JC has been a better player than Lauri and I think we agree on that, he's also on what I see as a worse contract.  JC is getting $27M in 2025 whereas Lauri is at $18M... JC is getting paid 50% more... Lauri also fits on our roster better as long as Clint is here, but the FO might have a bigger JC trade in the works. 

If I'm the GM, I'm taking two first rounders and a starting caliber PF who can shoot/score at will for JC every day of the week.  Lauri has never played with a guy like Trae and I think his advanced metrics would sky rocket on the Hawks.

[AHF]

1 minute ago, JTB said:

This is why it’s not good to compare careers until it’s all said and done. Lauri is a better offensive player that Collins. He can even put the ball on the floor better than Collins though no where near as athletic. The stats don’t tell the whole story here.

Defensively and rebounding JC has him beat all day! 

I'd be a bit reluctant to compare JC and Lauri offensively based on this season given how far off JC has been from his career norm and (a) how much more of a green light Lauri has in Utah and (b) how much better Lauri has been this season than any season of his career.  

Has Lauri really gone from being a .570% TS% guy to a .648% TS% guy or is he over his head a bit on a hot streak?

Lauri has gone from 10-12 shots per game his last 3 years in Chicago and Cleveland while playing the 4th scoring option there to basically being Utah's co-lead scorer (15.2 FGA/gm for LM and 15.9 for Clarkson).  

He clearly would not be able to put up that many shots in Atlanta and so would not be duplicating his role in Utah here.

Bear in mind, Lauri has 1 season in  his entire career where he shot 37% or higher from 3pt range.  (JC has 2 seasons.)  Lauri does it on higher volume so he would represent the bigger threat and better floor spacer but he isn't elite from there by any means.

 

I'm just saying let's pump the brakes a bit before assuming 2022-23 Lauri is the new career baseline for his performance and that it would map over to Atlanta if we acquired him.

[JeffS17]

2 minutes ago, AHF said:

I'd be a bit reluctant to compare JC and Lauri offensively based on this season given how far off JC has been from his career norm and (a) how much more of a green light Lauri has in Utah and (b) how much better Lauri has been this season than any season of his career.  

Has Lauri really gone from being a .570% TS% guy to a .648% TS% guy or is he over his head a bit on a hot streak?

Lauri has gone from 10-12 shots per game his last 3 years in Chicago and Cleveland while playing the 4th scoring option there to basically being Utah's co-lead scorer (15.2 FGA/gm for LM and 15.9 for Clarkson).  

He clearly would not be able to put up that many shots in Atlanta and so would not be duplicating his role in Utah here.

Bear in mind, Lauri has 1 season in  his entire career where he shot 37% or higher from 3pt range.  (JC has 2 seasons.)  Lauri does it on higher volume so he would represent the bigger threat and better floor spacer but he isn't elite from there by any means.

 

I'm just saying let's pump the brakes a bit before assuming 2022-23 Lauri is the new career baseline for his performance and that it would map over to Atlanta if we acquired him.

I think he's on a hot streak right now but even based on what we saw in CLE last year, I'd do the trade.  He has never played with Trae like JC has.  JC efficiency will go down as soon as he's not on the Hawks anymore.  His 3P shot, even when falling, takes forever to get off and he needs space and an elite playmaker.  Lauri is a much better self creator and more dynamic on offense.  He does LOOK better to me on offense and defense this year.  It makes me feel like he's put in a lot of work this offseason.  Either way, at worst I would see this as a neutral trade on the court but we also get two firsts that might be very valuable. 

[hylndr11]

All above is true in keeping context with the past of Mark and JC, but remember JC also had a bigger role in his earlier years and we have already broken down why he isnt getting as much off this year, plus his rebounding also will go down with a healthy Clint and DJ - which is the key, the benefits of JC in our current scenario are outwieghted by Mark because with him playing next to a healthy clint and DJ he is 7 feet as well, he doesnt have to worry about rebounding quite as much but if he has to we will have nice length and size for this, but his offensive diversity in our current iteration of the hawks, being healthy clint and Dj primarlily - makes sense. When u tack on some picks and cheaper contract its def worth heavily considering.   WIth a healthy clint and DJ collins skillset is not being utilized to what it should be, or used to be, on another team, he can help another team more than he can help us, and its really fair to let him do that.   Mark is just a better fit currently.

Edited November 21, 2022 by hylndr11

[Atlantaholic]

This HAS been a disappointing start to JC's season, no doubt about it. But we are less than 20 games into an 82 game season and JC is coming back after missing the vast majority of the season with several injuries. I'm not giving up on JC. His defense and effort have been fantastic and if he can return to being offensively what he was there isn't a player out there we can acquire that is a better value than JC. 

[JayBirdHawk]

1 hour ago, ShooterSays said:

Is this a forward looking tax avoidance move knowing we have to pay DJ in 2 years???

I would really hate that - those aren't win now moves.

 

1 hour ago, Sothron said:

Until Tony Ressler actually pays the LT I personally do not think the Hawks will ever pay it. We have never paid it as a franchise as far as I know.

IIRC We've paid it 2 years a long time ago. About $4 million total.

[Gray Mule]

Too much smoke.  After while, there will usually be a fire. 

Too much talk.  Sooner or later there will probably be a trade.

Do we have to?  No.  Do we need to?  No.  But, sooner or later someone will come up with that offer that we just can't refuse.  Then, bang!  It's over and he's gone.

Do I want him gone?  Only if the price is right!  Then, relunctely.

[JayBirdHawk]

26 minutes ago, hylndr11 said:

All above is true in keeping context with the past of Mark and JC, but remember JC also had a bigger role in his earlier years

Nope. Take a look at Lauri's minutes and shot attempts per game in his 1st 3 years. He was the #7 pick and played lots of minutes.

[Wretch]

Offensively speaking...the most telling stat when comparing Collins to Lauri is assisted 2p FG%.   For their careers, JC is at .741 vs. Lauri at .612.  This should surprise no one given our offense and Trae's brilliance.  The numbers don't lie though.  Lauri gets his own (contested) shot and is only looking better with it (putting up career highs) while being a primary option. 

No need to go over the impact of Capela and others operating in JC's space.  However I have seen JC do good things cutting across the lane and when being quick/decisive posting up for that turnaround jumper.  I'm of the opinion that JC would have a greater impact here with better ball movement...while I don't know that Lauri is any better a fit in this offense.

Also, I'm firmly team JC in just about any scenario you can come up with.

[REHawksFan]

Something to keep in mind with JC.....this is the 4th straight season of declining offensive production.  I know it's early in the season, but the trend has been ongoing since the 2019-2020 season.  So my question for JC and the Hawks isn't so much about the ability to re-establish the dominance of his early career but rather whether there's a role for him on the current version of the Hawks.

Season	Age	Tm	Lg	Pos	G	GS	MP	FG	FGA	FG%	3P	3PA	3P%	2P	2PA	2P%	eFG%	FT	FTA	FT%	ORB	DRB	TRB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	PTS
2019-20	22	ATL	NBA	PF	41	41	33.2	8.6	14.8	.583	1.4	3.6	.401	7.2	11.2	.642	.632	2.9	3.7	.800	2.8	7.3	10.1	1.5	0.8	1.6	1.8	3.4	21.6
2020-21	23	ATL	NBA	PF	63	63	29.3	6.8	12.2	.556	1.3	3.3	.399	5.5	8.9	.615	.610	2.7	3.2	.833	1.9	5.5	7.4	1.2	0.5	1.0	1.3	3.1	17.6
2021-22	24	ATL	NBA	PF	54	53	30.8	6.3	11.9	.526	1.2	3.3	.364	5.1	8.7	.588	.576	2.5	3.1	.793	1.7	6.1	7.8	1.8	0.6	1.0	1.1	3.0	16.2
2022-23	25	ATL	NBA	PF	16	16	31.8	4.8	9.6	.494	0.7	2.9	.234	4.1	6.7	.607	.529	2.2	2.4	.921	1.4	6.4	7.9	1.1	0.7	1.3	1.6	3.3	12.4

Why does anyone think he'll all of a sudden regain his 2019 and earlier form on this Hawks team?  I'm not talking about his ability to do so as a player, but the ability for him to impact THIS TEAM offensively??  

Edited November 21, 2022 by REHawksFan

[Sothron]

1 hour ago, JeffS17 said:

And why would we decline that?  If that's true, it doesn't really make sense to me at all... why would we decline and why would Utah give up picks for JC?

As I said in another post this is the only serious trade offer my source has been willing to share with me. The way it was presented to me was this is the first baseline serious trade offer for JC that the Hawks would consider. Lauri and two Minn firsts to replace the years we don't have first in the DJM trade. 

You wait because if that's the baseline deal NOW while the Hawks are winning, JC is healthy and looking good except for 3 point shooting...what are other deals going to look like? How much better will the deals look for us if we wait and keep winning games? Some Hawks fans are the only ones that have this negative view of JC and his contract. Virtually the rest of the NBA and their fans would want Collins on their team. 

Look at the NBA right now. Not just you, I know you are a smart guy and fan, but to the larger Hawks and other fans looking at this. Go, right now, and look at every PF in the NBA. Look at John Collins. Where is he on that list? He's near the top. Now what PF could we realistically trade for that is actually better than him? None IMO. So any trade we do for JC will make the team worse and even if we do the Lauri plus two firsts...does that help us now? No. Lauri is having a career year on a team that should be tanking but finds itself winning. JC is young enough and the Jazz have enough firsts that can afford to package Minnesota's probably low end firsts to take on JC. 

The only thing that deal does for us is give us a cheaper option at starting PF and we get two firsts to replace the ones we lost in the DJM trade. Our defense 100% gets worse with Lauri as a starting PF and our offense maybe gets better if Lauri can continue being a career high shooter this season. This is the kind of deal a team desperate NOT to pay the LT bill makes.

[warcore]

20 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

Nope. Take a look at Lauri's minutes and shot attempts per game in his 1st 3 years. He was the #7 pick and played lots of minutes.

I think he's just saying John had a bigger role then than he does now (not a bigger role than Lauri)

[JTB]

23 minutes ago, Sothron said:

As I said in another post this is the only serious trade offer my source has been willing to share with me. The way it was presented to me was this is the first baseline serious trade offer for JC that the Hawks would consider. Lauri and two Minn firsts to replace the years we don't have first in the DJM trade. 

You wait because if that's the baseline deal NOW while the Hawks are winning, JC is healthy and looking good except for 3 point shooting...what are other deals going to look like? How much better will the deals look for us if we wait and keep winning games? Some Hawks fans are the only ones that have this negative view of JC and his contract. Virtually the rest of the NBA and their fans would want Collins on their team. 

Look at the NBA right now. Not just you, I know you are a smart guy and fan, but to the larger Hawks and other fans looking at this. Go, right now, and look at every PF in the NBA. Look at John Collins. Where is he on that list? He's near the top. Now what PF could we realistically trade for that is actually better than him? None IMO. So any trade we do for JC will make the team worse and even if we do the Lauri plus two firsts...does that help us now? No. Lauri is having a career year on a team that should be tanking but finds itself winning. JC is young enough and the Jazz have enough firsts that can afford to package Minnesota's probably low end firsts to take on JC. 

The only thing that deal does for us is give us a cheaper option at starting PF and we get two firsts to replace the ones we lost in the DJM trade. Our defense 100% gets worse with Lauri as a starting PF and our offense maybe gets better if Lauri can continue being a career high shooter this season. This is the kind of deal a team desperate NOT to pay the LT bill makes.

This is fair.

I think the most confusing thing about Collins right now is what is his role here?

im not even advocating that we trade JC though the Jazz offer looks like a good one….at the end of the day what is the FO and this coaching staff looking for out of JC ???

he’s playing very good defense, rebounding well, and gives 100% every night ….so if that’s what they are looking for then we need to hold on to Collins.

If they are looking for JC to be apart of a big 3 along with Trae and Murray then JC may not be the right player to fill that 3rd all star level player.

For me IF Collins continues to shoot poorly for the season at some point it’s going to impact our record. Once it starts to impact or record (IF that happens)… you either keep JC and fire McMillan or you trade JC for a better offensive player PF and put more responsibility on Capela, Murray, Hunter defensively.

 

I don’t think it’s a tax move as much you do. I have a feeling Collins contract is being put into play on this because typically the nba only pays scorers and if you are a defensive player making big money then usually you’re a game changer yearly DPOY candidate like Gobert. 

[Diesel]

2 hours ago, JTB said:

we get worse defensively while getting better offensively.

I wake up screaming because I start to see image of us taking Huerter for DJM....

2 hours ago, JTB said:

My thoughts exactly! I know Soths source is real but that offer for JC is massive and I’m sorry to the JC fans (I like him too ) but I’m taking that deal and not looking back.

we get worse defensively while getting better offensively. Big possibility we are more well rounded then you get the two first rd picks thrown on top and it’s a no brainer.
 

only way Collins makes me rethink any of it is if he finds his shot, his role within our offense.

I don't want to see guys have a layup line to the bucket. 

 

[JeffS17]

It's clear we want to invest more heavily in wings and not in our front court so the difference in JC/Lauri salary should give some space to do so.  If I believed Ressler would go into the tax, I wouldn't trade for Lauri... but considering how much cheaper he is, I like him as a player and I like his fit on our team.  The picks are not win-now, but I typically like a stable long-term approach anyways.  Two first rounders for a guy that has never been an all-star (and you get a good starter in return) feels more than fair to me.  Those picks will be very valuable if a all-star level player comes available this coming offseason.  Also gives us room to make additional impactful moves around the edges to round out our weaknesses.

Add my concerns around JCs finger/shooting and his weaknesses against the dominant bigs in the East and I'd be willing to pull the trigger.  We're in a great spot right now either way because we're winning before we make moves to get better.

[Diesel]

1 hour ago, JeffS17 said:

The question I'm asking is more around what the Jazz goals are going forward (tank? rebuild? make playoffs?).  But even though JC has been a better player than Lauri and I think we agree on that, he's also on what I see as a worse contract.  JC is getting $27M in 2025 whereas Lauri is at $18M... JC is getting paid 50% more... Lauri also fits on our roster better as long as Clint is here, but the FO might have a bigger JC trade in the works. 

If I'm the GM, I'm taking two first rounders and a starting caliber PF who can shoot/score at will for JC every day of the week.  Lauri has never played with a guy like Trae and I think his advanced metrics would sky rocket on the Hawks.

This is tanker talk.  I believe the problem is that many of our fans have never studied winning teams.   Lemme ask... how many times during the Duncan years did San Antonio trade a starter for picks?

How about in GS's championship years.. how often have they traded a starter for Picks?

Usually, trading starters for picks is a sign that you're going backwards.

 

[Plainview1981]

The main thing this team needs right now is scoring and shooting from the bench.