Knicks Rd1 - Playoffs Series 2021

[thecampster]

39 minutes ago, REHawksFan said:

Speaking of lineups and their effectiveness.....Check this out:  

Lineup 1:  Trae / Bogie / Snell      / Collins / Capela - 113 minutes - 128.1 OFFRTG - 121.7 DEFRTG - +6.40 NETRTG

Lineup 2:  Trae / Bogie / Huerter / Collins / Capela - 112 minutes - 123.1 OFFRTG - 101.3 DEFRTG - +21.8 NETRTG

 

Is Kevin really that much better than Tony defensively??   

Opponents PER while at the SF

Kevin 16.8

Snell 14.2

 

Though that doesn't really take into account the much smaller sample size on Snell, who was on the floor, etc  I think the biggest affect here is that Kevin spends a lot of his on time on the floor as the other ball handler in lineups when Trae is out.  By design, he doesn't share the floor with Trae for close to 1/2 of his minutes. With poorer offense comes poorer defense as missed shots, turnovers lead to fast break opportunities for the other team.

There are things Snell does really well from a defensive perspective (like deny the ball) but if I had to take one or the other solely for defense its Kevin. He's really improved his body positioning and beating his man to the spot this year. I don't think he'll ever be great but he is showing the ability to be a + defender.

 

[bleachkit]

Biggest thing will be injuries unfortunately. Can't have Trae, Bogi, Capela, etc get hurt. If we stay healthy, gotta like our chances. Have to get one of the first two though.

[REHawksFan]

4 minutes ago, AHF said:

@sturt will correctly point out that Snell is always among the worst on his team and the worst in the league in DRTG.  This year, he is worse than Trae and only ahead of Lou.

I've never thought of Tony as being particularly great defensively, but I guess I didn't realize the difference was that great between he and Kevin.  But as others have said, some of that is probably competition too.  I haven't been able to figure out how to see what games those lineups were in to tell.  

 

[macdaddy]

I always thought of Snell as a good defender but have nothing to back that up.   It maybe that i equate size at the position and minimal offensive contribution with excellent d.   

but i feel like he's been a definite plus for the Hawks on both ends.   

[bobrathbun4pres]

"Contain" Randle would be the words id use. Im not afraid of barrett or rose. I think hunter can play good d on anybody on their team this series. I just hope hes no longer on a minute restriction 

[thecampster]

19 minutes ago, REHawksFan said:

I've never thought of Tony as being particularly great defensively, but I guess I didn't realize the difference was that great between he and Kevin.  But as others have said, some of that is probably competition too.  I haven't been able to figure out how to see what games those lineups were in to tell.  

 

	PLAYER	TEAM	AGE	GP	W	L	MIN	DEF RTG	DREB	DREB%	%DREB	STL	STL%	BLK	%BLK	OPP PTS OFF TOV	OPP PTS 2ND CHANCE	OPP PTS FB	OPP PTS PAINT	DEF WS
1	Bruno Fernando	ATL	22	33	20	13	6.8	104.7	1.9	25.6	34.4	0.1	11.1	0.1	18.8	2.5	1.6	1.7	5.5	0.033
2	Skylar Mays	ATL	23	33	19	14	8.2	105.6	0.8	9.5	12.9	0.4	32.6	0.1	8.0	2.4	1.6	2.0	6.4	0.036
3	De'Andre Hunter	ATL	23	23	12	11	29.5	105.9	4.0	12.5	17.8	0.8	21.3	0.5	16.7	9.2	8.5	8.1	28.8	0.131
4	Nathan Knight	ATL	23	33	21	12	8.4	106.9	1.4	15.5	22.1	0.3	20.5	0.3	45.5	3.5	2.1	2.1	6.2	0.034
5	Rajon Rondo	LAC	35	27	16	11	14.9	107.9	1.9	11.9	18.6	0.7	28.8	0.1	6.1	5.4	4.6	2.5	13.8	0.056
6	Clint Capela	ATL	27	63	34	29	30.1	108.2	9.6	30.1	41.9	0.7	16.7	2.0	58.1	9.4	8.0	7.4	30.2	0.110
7	Brandon Goodwin	ATL	25	47	25	22	13.2	109.1	1.3	9.7	13.8	0.4	18.5	0.0	0.0	4.6	3.1	3.3	12.2	0.045
8	Danilo Gallinari	ATL	32	51	29	22	24.0	110.3	3.8	15.5	22.4	0.6	17.4	0.2	9.8	7.3	7.0	5.2	23.6	0.072
9	Solomon Hill	ATL	30	71	41	30	21.3	110.6	2.4	11.1	16.1	0.7	21.8	0.2	8.9	6.8	5.6	5.0	21.5	0.063
10	Bogdan Bogdanovic	ATL	28	44	30	14	29.7	111.0	3.2	10.4	14.6	1.1	26.8	0.3	11.8	10.1	8.2	7.0	30.3	0.084
11	Lou Williams	ATL	34	24	18	6	21.0	111.0	1.8	8.4	12.2	0.3	12.1	0.1	4.8	6.6	5.8	5.9	22.3	0.060
12	Kevin Huerter	ATL	22	69	40	29	30.8	111.6	2.8	9.0	12.8	1.2	25.9	0.3	7.8	10.0	8.0	7.1	32.0	0.082
13	Tony Snell	ATL	29	47	29	18	21.1	111.6	2.0	9.0	12.9	0.3	8.8	0.2	11.1	7.0	6.2	4.9	20.9	0.055
14	John Collins	ATL	23	63	34	29	29.3	111.7	5.5	18.3	25.8	0.5	13.0	1.0	31.3	9.6	8.2	7.3	30.7	0.077
15	Onyeka Okongwu	ATL	20	50	31	19	12.0	112.6	2.0	17.2	25.6	0.5	23.2	0.7	68.8	4.3	3.2	3.3	11.8	0.029
16	Trae Young	ATL	22	63	36	27	33.7	113.0	3.3	9.4	13.3	0.8	18.1	0.2	5.2	10.9	9.6	8.6	35.8	0.076
17	Cam Reddish	ATL	21	26	10	16	28.9	114.9	3.2	10.9	15.4	1.3	30.3	0.3	11.5	10.1	8.1	7.8	31.5	0.050
18	Kris Dunn	ATL	27	4	1	3	11.4	117.7	1.5	12.5	18.8	0.5	28.6	0.5	33.3	6.0	3.0	3.0	13.5	0.010

 

From the chart, a few things of interest. Although they share the identical defensive rating at 111.6, that number is skewed a bit by Snell having a bigger block % and Kevin (as the chart shows) having more turnovers/opponents points scored off turnovers). As a primary ball handler, he is naturally going to have a higher turnover percentage than a guy who is 90% catch and shoot.  DEF WS though show Kevin is the better defender.

Most metrics show that he and BB are pretty equal in value...Bogi ahead but Kevin is much younger and still developing. I'll wager most will take 27 year old Kevin against this year's BB. He just isn't there yet.

[sturt]

To no one in particular... the fervent intense desire to somehow reframe Tony Snell as anything close to a competent defensive player reminds me of the fervent intense desire to somehow reframe the events of January 6th at the nation's capitol building as counterintuitively being the handiwork of some mysterious unknown genius insurrectionists.

I get it. We all get it, I think. Snell has the broad shoulders, long arms and the overall body type that one normally would consider consistent with some of the best wing defenders. He looks the part.

But he only looks the part. When you watch him and study it, he just doesn't have the lateral movement. If he were an NFL QB, we'd call him a statue. Opposing players get around him with relative ease, and at the same time, he knows he has to give space to try to avoid them getting around him, so they also take advantage of that to launch a shot before he can close out.

It's not a one-off in the stats, either.

Every season shows the same when you line-up any roster he's been on... it's been rare, actually, that he wasn't the worst on the DRTG stat, which by its very design is constructed to figure out where the weakest link is in light of the variety of 5-man units. If memory serves, there's maybe one season where, among those who played significant minutes, he wasn't the worst.

Mind you... he's good-to-exceptional at pretty much every other element of the game. If he were even average on defense, he'd be one of the more highly coveted wings in the league.

 

Ref:

 

[AHF]

22 minutes ago, sturt said:

To no one in particular... the fervent intense desire to somehow reframe Tony Snell as anything close to a competent defensive player reminds me of the fervent intense desire to somehow reframe the events of January 6th at the nation's capitol building as counterintuitively being the handiwork of some mysterious unknown genius insurrectionists.

I get it. We all get it, I think. Snell has the broad shoulders, long arms and the overall body type that one normally would consider consistent with some of the best wing defenders. He looks the part.

But he only looks the part. When you watch him and study it, he just doesn't have the lateral movement. If he were an NFL QB, we'd call him a statue. Opposing players get around him with relative ease, and at the same time, he knows he has to give space to try to avoid them getting around him, so they also take advantage of that to launch a shot before he can close out.

It's not a one-off in the stats, either.

Every season shows the same when you line-up any roster he's been on... it's been rare, actually, that he wasn't the worst on the DRTG stat, which by its very design is constructed to figure out where the weakest link is in light of the variety of 5-man units. If memory serves, there's maybe one season where, among those who played significant minutes, he wasn't the worst.

Mind you... he's good-to-exceptional at pretty much every other element of the game. If he were even average on defense, he'd be one of the more highly coveted wings in the league.

 

Ref:

 

People showed up to try to stop Congress from counting votes to stop an election, breaking the law to try to stop the government from effecting a change in political leadership.  Not genius but pretty simply a legally classic case of sedition.  Seems like a tortured comparison to anything Snell related.  Probably a topic best taken to the political board.

On the DRTG (as defined by Basketball Reference), he is always near the bottom of the list.  He is not as much of a consistent outlier by other defensive metrics.  So there is some picking and choosing of which metric is best.  But he isn't great by any of them and is typically rated poorly in one or more seasons by all of them.  

[JayBirdHawk]

 

 

 

[AHF]

By way of example for this season, he is 17th out of 18 on the team in DRTG.

He is 11th in DBPM and also 11th in DWS.  

For RAPTOR, he is 9th in Def On/Off RAPTOR, 11th in Box Score Def RAPTOR and 12th in Overall Def RAPTOR.

 

So by DRTG, he is almost the worst Hawk this season.  By DBPM, DWS and the RAPTOR defensive metrics he is more in the middle of the pack but a little below the average and median numbers.

 

In general, I'd just note that defense is not close to as good as offense for quantifying contribution by metrics and you are best off (as in most things) looking at several different metrics and combining that with other data and observations than you are picking a single standard and using that as your be-all, end-all number.

[marco102]

12 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

 

 

 

I like that D Hunt added the slight that the Hawks scored alot of points on the Knicks..lol

It is being overlooked a ton.

[MarylandHawk]

2 hours ago, thecampster said:

Opponents PER while at the SF

Kevin 16.8

Snell 14.2

 

Though that doesn't really take into account the much smaller sample size on Snell, who was on the floor, etc  I think the biggest affect here is that Kevin spends a lot of his on time on the floor as the other ball handler in lineups when Trae is out.  By design, he doesn't share the floor with Trae for close to 1/2 of his minutes. With poorer offense comes poorer defense as missed shots, turnovers lead to fast break opportunities for the other team.

There are things Snell does really well from a defensive perspective (like deny the ball) but if I had to take one or the other solely for defense its Kevin. He's really improved his body positioning and beating his man to the spot this year. I don't think he'll ever be great but he is showing the ability to be a + defender.

 

He is 20th in the entire league in steals and led our team. His activity has been tremendous this year. 

[aali34]

Thank god we aren't in the play in. Charlotte is getting demolished right now. McDermotts going supernova.

[ATLHawks3]

23 minutes ago, aali34 said:

Thank god we aren't in the play in. Charlotte is getting demolished right now. McDermotts going supernova.

Their youth caught up to them.

[kg01]

48 minutes ago, aali34 said:

Thank god we aren't in the play in. Charlotte is getting demolished right now. McDermotts going supernova.

Hope we don't come out listless like CHA did.

I found it hilarious how the broadcast went on about how much better IND is now that they're playing faster on offense.  Ostensibly a shot at McMillan.

I'm just thinking, well why're they in the playin game and not in the real playoffs if they're such great shakes now?!

On another note, remember when PJ Washington had a hot week and folks were tryna say we need to trade Jollins for him but that we'd have to add assets to make it fair? (yeah, people said that)

Lol at them folks.

[JeffS17]

40 minutes ago, ATLHawks3 said:

Their youth caught up to them.

(and the guy they just wrote a $120M check to isn't on the court)

[JayBirdHawk]

 

 

Quote

Collins on Tuesday: “Not to take anything from Julius. He’s having a great year, (he’s) a great player and definitely somebody I’ve got to come compete against. (But) for me, it’s more of a battle with myself, a mental battle of focusing on how much better I can get. ... If I know one thing, I am going to watch a lot of (game) film, get my body ready and I’m going to be laser-focused. I don’t necessarily think I have anything to prove, but I’m coming to compete.”

He’s got a point. Collins had a good season, too. Look at their respective career numbers and, even after Randle’s resurgent year, Collins measures up well against him. Collins is a much more efficient scorer than Randle while posting almost identical rates of points and rebounds per 36 minutes. Collins also is the more productive shot blocker.

But Randle separated himself from Collins and most other NBA big men by becoming a so-called “point forward” for first-year Knicks coach Tom Thibodeau. Randle no longer is just a bruiser around the basket for bad teams. He’s a well-rounded All-Star who can take over games with his scoring and passing.

 

Quote

Said Collins: “He’s making a lot of tough shots right now, so it’s on us to make them tougher. If he continues to make them, then you tip your hat to him. But we are not going to let up in any way and (we will) attack him. He’s the head of the snake for them.”

Randle will have to guard Collins, too. That’s no easy task with Collins working with point guard/wizard Trae Young as a pick-and-roll partner and spot-up shooter. Collins won’t have a ball-dominant role like Randle so long as he’s partnered with Young. But it’s plausible that, like Randle, Collins has another level of his game he can unlock to go from very good to great (with the big advantage of Young as his point guard).

Collins’ sleek build means he usually can’t bully his way to the basket or tangle with the league’s bigger centers. He can become a better scorer and playmaker off the dribble.

“I feel like that is just the last step for me to sort of put everything together offensively,” Collins said. “And defensively just continue to get better with communication, my I.Q. and not foul as much.”

 

[JeffS17]

3 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

 

 

 

 

Nice read.  I look forward to seeing us match offers this offseason to retain Collins.  He complements Trae really well and I've become a believer over the course of the season.

One thing to note is that while Collins is more efficient, he also doesn't have the burden of taking late in the shot clock contested shots.  That usually ends up being Trae/Bogi/Gallo, which certainly helps Collin's %s.  Randle is constantly taking contested jumpers at the end of the clock... I feel like it's less of a reflection on him and more of a reflection on how anemic that entire offense can be at times.  Either way, John is a few years younger and I think he's on track to be a better player than randle is right now.

[JayBirdHawk]

Hunter:

Quote

Hunter’s ability to find his own shot and score on offense - while essentially guarding positions one through four on defense - has been quite noticeable in the year since the former Virginia star was selected fourth overall in the 2019 NBA draft. And although he missed 49 games this season with a knee injury and is still ramping back up his activity, the Hawks know having him back for their first-round playoff series against the Knicks could give them a boost at the right time.

“I think he gives us another ballhandler, another option out on the floor, another defender that can defend multiple positions, basically one through four, possibly some fives,” McMillan said. “It gives us a lot of versatility with him being out on the floor, both offensively and defensively. We can put the ball in his hands and allow him to play with the ball. Putting him in the starting lineup, which we did last game, it gives you another option. Now that you have (wing Bogdan Bogdanovic), who’s doing some really good things for us, you can put the ball in De’Andre’s hands and allow him to play with the ball. It gives us another option defensively, it gives us versatility where we can match him up one through four.”

 

[JayBirdHawk]