2023-24 Insider Information Thread

[benhillboy]

8 hours ago, TheNorthCydeRises said:

 

Hawks are 90 - 71 with Bogi in the lineup in the past 3 years.  That 56% win percentage is tops on the team within that time period.

The problem . . . is that with Bogi playing 161 out of 236 games, he's only played in 68% of the games.

Great stat digging, I’m not surprised.  Last time I tracked it the best winning percentage belonged to OO but that was some time ago.

Edited June 25, 2023 by benhillboy

[JayBirdHawk]

7 minutes ago, TheNorthCydeRises said:

 

I think there's a HIGH PROBABILITY that we run this back with the same squad next season. 

I would agree I would say 'I can see the Hawks running it back to START the season to gauge the Quin effect.' 

Depending on the team performance and W/L record it will determine the moves to be made.

9 minutes ago, TheNorthCydeRises said:

It makes no sense for the Hawks to just give away players,

[TheNorthCydeRises]

3 hours ago, JeffS17 said:

The biggest issue with the Heurter trade is he was on a really team friendly contract (with potential to look even better in a year or two go en his development), so no matter how you cut it, it was a bad move for winning basketball.  You build contenders not only with great players but also great contracts (especially true if your owner— read: our owner, is stingy). It’s rare to have guys on team friendly contracts that arent either: rookie scale contracts, vet minimums, or elite players on maxes. We had that and traded him away.

 

When we acquired DJ, we all knew that it would affect Huerter's minutes and his standing with the team.  So if we kept Huerter, here is your lineup:

 

Starters:  Trae - DJ - Hunter - Collins - Capela

Bench:  A. Holiday - Bogi - Huerter - J. Holiday - Okongwu

3rd string:  AJ - JJ - Kaminsky

 

Huerter would've definitely helped us when Bogi was out.  He would've received 6th man minutes and maybe had us in better standing.  But once Huerter came back, what then?  Does JJ still get a chance to replace J. Holiday?  Does AJ even see the floor, or is he spending his days in College Park?

Huerter had a great regular season in a high uptempo offense in Sacramento.  Then he completely bombs in the playoffs, just like he did last year with us. 

I still like the dude. And he will always have the Key to the City of Atlanta with his performance in Game 7 vs the Sixers.  But the guy was expendable.   And he was not the difference in the Hawks winning 50 games and obtaining a top 5 seed in the East.

[kg01]

23 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

 

 

Hawks, this is how you try to salvage trade value.  The whole 'keep JC in constant rumors and thereby absolutely, positively tanking his trade value' plan is a no-go.

You're welcome.  Thanks.

[TheNorthCydeRises]

16 minutes ago, benhillboy said:

Great stat digging, I’m not surprised.  Last time I tracked it the best winning percentage belonged to OO but that was some time ago.

 

Okongwu is 2nd, at 98 - 80 ( 55% )

 

[hylndr11]

31 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

 

 

Lol when does the new cba begin? 

[bleachkit]

What if we get absolutely no decent offers for our trade candidates? I wonder what we will do.

[JeffS17]

15 minutes ago, bleachkit said:

What if we get absolutely no decent offers for our trade candidates? I wonder what we will do.

I'm afraid it will be something like this:

[ATLHawks3]

16 minutes ago, bleachkit said:

What if we get absolutely no decent offers for our trade candidates? I wonder what we will do.

That would be the worst case scenario of running it back.

[JeffS17]

1 hour ago, kg01 said:

I agree with your sentiment (cinnamon?) but, after seeing his playoff performance, I'm wondering if it ends up being 'ok' that we're forced to find alternatives in his role.

The trade, and the reasons for it, were/are bad.  But we're probably better off, in a strange way.

It's possible were better off but I think it's unlikely.  Bogi is constantly injured and is not really on the same timeline as the rest of our core.  Kevin didn't play well this past playoffs, but he was a very valuable piece in the playoff run we did make, on this team...  Philly gets to the ECF if not for Kev.  I think his contract is going to look like an absolute steal if he gets even incrementally better as it's already a solid team-friendly deal.

The Murray trade honestly hamstrung us pretty bad and feels like another instance of ownership impatience that derails a rebuild.  I don't think we're hopeless or anything like that, but we absolutely made it harder on ourselves.  We needed another ball handler but I don't think it should have been a PG -- really needed a pure wing player ball handler (wish it could be Hunter...) and perimeter defender.  If Murray's perimeter defense was good, I'd feel much better about the assets we gave up but it was not good last year.  Anyways, that trade cascaded into the Heurter trade by creating a log jam we still haven't really resolved at SG.

All water under the bridge now, but I can see why Schlenk would not want to make that trade and why his vision was at odds with Resslers.  Schlenk had his faults (mostly overpaying extensions) but he never lacked patience when it came to our rebuild.  Ressler's impatience coupled with his aversion to pay the tax has landed us in this hamster wheel -- he's created a situation that puts a ton of pressure on the new coaching staff.

7 minutes ago, ATLHawks3 said:

That would be the worst case scenario of running it back.

No, worst case is we ship off a player to get under the tax and attach a first rounder.

[ATLHawks3]

9 minutes ago, JeffS17 said:

It's possible were better off but I think it's unlikely.  Bogi is constantly injured and is not really on the same timeline as the rest of our core.  Kevin didn't play well this past playoffs, but he was a very valuable piece in the playoff run we did make, on this team...  Philly gets to the ECF if not for Kev.  I think his contract is going to look like an absolute steal if he gets even incrementally better as it's already a solid team-friendly deal.

The Murray trade honestly hamstrung us pretty bad and feels like another instance of ownership impatience that derails a rebuild.  I don't think we're hopeless or anything like that, but we absolutely made it harder on ourselves.  We needed another ball handler but I don't think it should have been a PG -- really needed a pure wing player ball handler (wish it could be Hunter...) and perimeter defender.  If Murray's perimeter defense was good, I'd feel much better about the assets we gave up but it was not good last year.  Anyways, that trade cascaded into the Heurter trade by creating a log jam we still haven't really resolved at SG.

All water under the bridge now, but I can see why Schlenk would not want to make that trade and why his vision was at odds with Resslers.  Schlenk had his faults (mostly overpaying extensions) but he never lacked patience when it came to our rebuild.  Ressler's impatience coupled with his aversion to pay the tax has landed us in this hamster wheel -- he's created a situation that puts a ton of pressure on the new coaching staff.

No, worst case is we ship off a player to get under the tax and attach a first rounder.

I don't think the front office views him as an asset you would have to attach picks to get off of, otherwise that kind of trade would've already happened by now.

[Final_quest]

I think Bogi and Okongwu both got most of their wins above .500 during our 27-11 stretch in 2020-2021.  They didn't play in the losing streaks that year.  In Bogi's case he really helped propel us to a lot of those wins that season. 

Bet they both mostly have a .500 record, like the rest of the team, after 2020-2021.

I've said enough about Kevin Huerter, but I think Murray is still an important pick up for us.  He's the kind of player you can flip for a guy like Siakam or similar level player.  Huerter would not have given us that leverage.  Also, they always say we traded 3 first round picks, when we all know it's actually 2.  

[Final_quest]

9 minutes ago, ATLHawks3 said:

I don't think the front office views him as an asset you would have to attach picks to get off of, otherwise that kind of trade would've already happened by now.

Right, but the difference now is that if we don't trade Collins we're paying well over the luxury tax.  That wasn't part of the equation until now.  I think Jeff believes we might do it now just to avoid tax penalties.  

[NBASupes]

22 minutes ago, JeffS17 said:

It's possible were better off but I think it's unlikely.  Bogi is constantly injured and is not really on the same timeline as the rest of our core.  Kevin didn't play well this past playoffs, but he was a very valuable piece in the playoff run we did make, on this team...  Philly gets to the ECF if not for Kev.  I think his contract is going to look like an absolute steal if he gets even incrementally better as it's already a solid team-friendly deal.

The Murray trade honestly hamstrung us pretty bad and feels like another instance of ownership impatience that derails a rebuild.  I don't think we're hopeless or anything like that, but we absolutely made it harder on ourselves.  We needed another ball handler but I don't think it should have been a PG -- really needed a pure wing player ball handler (wish it could be Hunter...) and perimeter defender.  If Murray's perimeter defense was good, I'd feel much better about the assets we gave up but it was not good last year.  Anyways, that trade cascaded into the Heurter trade by creating a log jam we still haven't really resolved at SG.

All water under the bridge now, but I can see why Schlenk would not want to make that trade and why his vision was at odds with Resslers.  Schlenk had his faults (mostly overpaying extensions) but he never lacked patience when it came to our rebuild.  Ressler's impatience coupled with his aversion to pay the tax has landed us in this hamster wheel -- he's created a situation that puts a ton of pressure on the new coaching staff.

No, worst case is we ship off a player to get under the tax and attach a first rounder.

It's not just the owner, it's also Trae. 

[RedDawg#8]

14 minutes ago, Final_quest said:

Right, but the difference now is that if we don't trade Collins we're paying well over the luxury tax.  That wasn't part of the equation until now.  I think Jeff believes we might do it now just to avoid tax penalties.  

We’re like 5.3 mil over the luxury tax line. We can trade any number of guys if we really wanted to get under it.

Collins alone is not weighing us down.

[sturt]

14 hours ago, terrell said:

Of course I didnt like the return,

You didn't like the return?

Um.

WHAT return?

Not only did you get no return and an on-court talent deficit for 60-ish games of the 2022-23 season until Bey's arrival... but YOUR GM EFFECTIVELY PAID FIVE 2ND ROUND DRAFT PICKS for the PLEASURE of getting NOOOOOO return.

(Caps not shouting, but for emphasis.)

 

14 hours ago, terrell said:

Kevin. I like him but he's not worth paying the tax it would have cost. I also don't have any issues with Tony not wanting to go into the tax level for a .500 team. Realistically, would anyone do that with their own money? It's easy to overspend when you're not accountable or it's not your money.

Two things.

First you're co-mingling here, and you don't seem to even get it that you're co-mingling, my friend.

What am I talking about.

a) The Hawks' final offensive rating was 116 and change. And final defensive rating was 116 and change.

So what?

So, basketball games are decided routinely on the basis of as little as ONE missed or made free throw... a one point loss or win... or... as much as... THREE MISSED 3 point shots or made... a single-digits difference loss or win.

Sooooo... it probably doesn't matter all that much to your final W/L record if your typical offensive output is, say, 3-6 points less than your typical defensive output.

And the converse is true... it matters mathematically a helluvalot when your outputs are virtually the same.... AND you're missing a proven, veteran, primary weapon (BogBog) in your arsenal for almost half the season... PLUS, IN ADDITION to that, and to the precise point here, YOU'RE MISSING A PROVEN, VETERAN PRIMARY WEAPON (KVon) IN YOUR ARSENAL FOR ALMOST 60 GAMES (ie, until Bey's arrival).

Then, even when you have those two situations resolved, let's just change head coaches, and let the whole ecosystem we call a team get to re-calibrate to new leadership and that new leadership's decision-making and by most accounts, very-different coaching philosophies.

It's a .500 team, sure. But let's be sober. It's a .500 team under the specific, actual, fact-based conditions laid out above.

What it would have been WITHOUT THE AFTERMATH OF THE KVON TRADE is almost certainly something better, if not significantly better than .500.

 

 b)  You're entirely right that if we're talking about off-court benefit, the owner saved money, and too, the GM gained an asset that could be valuable for some season in the future (SAC 2024 conditional FRP).

But.

When we're talking specifically about the 2022-23 season... this is irrefutably true, not because muah said it, but because it is irrefutably true.

14 hours ago, sturt said:

We literally gave up KVon for NO on-court benefit.

And again, salt in that wound, that deal eventually cost us five 2nd round picks to make up something of what JDay couldn't do for us.

 

"But what about this?"

10 hours ago, TheNorthCydeRises said:

On the flip side, had Kevin stayed, none of us would be drooling about the potential that AJ Griffin could bring to this team, which is potentially a higher level shooter/scorer than Kevin was.

I agree that we shouldn't have traded him just to get under the tax, but it may be a blessing in disguise if AJ really pans out.

 

That's fine.

But all due respect, North... you were going to have AJ on the roster no matter what anyhow, and if his talent rose to the level of eclipsing KVon's performance, in that case, all things being equal, you were going to see him get minutes anyhow.

So, sure, it bodes well for future seasons to have seen AJ get minutes.

But for the 22-23 season, it was part of the equation that contributed to a .500 22-23 regular season.

What's more... let's be sober enough to recognize, too, that AJ's butt was on the bench for the playoffs. Even our highly-regarded head coach, by evidence of the facts, felt the team had a better chance of winning games with more veteran talent on the floor.

 

(Sidebar: I find it hilarious, truly, that one poster in particular... not you North... has argued so incessantly in agreement with me on this, but ya know... it's me... sturt... so, she's gonna be mighty interested to poke holes in any conclusion once she realizes she's on my side and me on hers. She really don't like me, I spose. Dunno why. I'm honestly her best friend around here. No, really. But that's a whole other discussion for a different thread, if at all. )

 

 

 

[JayBirdHawk]

1 hour ago, TheNorthCydeRises said:

Bench:  A. Holiday - Bogi - Huerter - J. Holiday - Okongwu

J. Holiday would not be on the team since we acquired him in the Huerter trade.

[JayBirdHawk]

1 hour ago, hylndr11 said:

Lol when does the new cba begin? 

Most of it starts July 1 2023. Things like the 2nd Tax Apron penalties starts in the 2024 season.

[JayBirdHawk]

1 hour ago, JeffS17 said:

Bogi is constantly injured and is not really on the same timeline as the rest of our core.

I know this is the perception, but Bogi missed the first 23 games of this past season after offseason knee surgery. The only games he missed beyond that were back to back games. So a relatively 'healthy' season once he returned.

[sturt]

8 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

I know this is the perception, but Bogi missed the first 23 games of this past season after offseason knee surgery. The only games he missed beyond that were back to back games. So a relatively 'healthy' season once he returned.

True that.

Would only add, in the interest of full disclosure... took him about 10 games after his return to get back into some consistent production as we've been accustomed to seeing.