Official Game Thread: heat at Hawks

[JeffS17]

2 minutes ago, NBASupes said:

I don't like any of the structure guys. That's asking for a disaster to happen. That's why I like D'Antoni. He's a system guy but it revolves around PnR. These motion offense guys will flop badly in Atlanta and ruin Trae reputation 

I can see it being risky -- we don't have the same personnel as in Utah, but it's unclear to me how rigid Snyder is.  With some adaptations, I think we can get a nice scheme in place.  D'Antoni would be nice as well because Trae has always been a mix of Harden and Nash to me.  More than anything, I want a coach that is motivated and dedicated -- I don't want some established coach if they're complacent and just signing one more deal before retirement.

[AHF]

The obvious solution from a personnel standpoint to bolster our shooting for this year was keeping Huerter and then trading him at the deadline if we decided to get under the tax line rather than doing it in the summer.  We've had pretty much everyone on the team struggle with their 3pt shot this year (other than AJ and AH)  and Kev's perimeter shooting this year would both be a huge counter to that and would presumably open the floor up to make the offense better (which should have positive trickle down effects for other players' shooting numbers).  Ressler chose to downgrade the roster to save $$.  That simple.  (The first round pick is just a means of mitigating the obvious loss.)

Now there are several things that can happen to improve our situation with our perimeter shooting:

1. Guys can shoot their normal %s.  Pretty simple idea.  Other than Aaron Holiday, everyone regressing to the mean would translate into significantly better 3pt shooting.
2. Bogi returning.  Pretty obvious.
3. More minutes for AJ.  This is already being implemented to good effect with him shooting 39% after the stinker against Miami.  (Hurray!)
4. Change in offensive strategy.  (I.e., Nate is replaced.)  The next time I see us running some real screen action to get a perimeter shooter a good look might be the first.
5. Personnel move(s).  Tough to say more since it depends on who is involved in the deal and there are as many permutations on this as you can imagine potential deals.

If Nate was willing to swallow his pride and bring in a an offensive guru I would characterize #4 as something other than replacing Nate but I don't think that is going to happen.  Nate's offenses have been suboptimal for his entire career and he has never embraced that path.

[NBASupes]

4 minutes ago, macdaddy said:

Yes.  I agree almost completely although I think D'Antoni wouldn't necessarily be the right move at this point.  I assume he's done coaching.  

 

I honestly think he's the only choice that makes sense. We are a PnR team but we need someone who is an offensive guru to make our stuff functional 

[gurpilo]

We only know to do pick and roll but we are forgeting to use It and iso with our guards. There is no ball movement, our bigs cannot pass, we don't find our shooters when open, is comical to see sometimes.

I blame the coach for this, we need to find people moving, as Miami yesterday. What is encouraging is that with this offense we are able to score, we are really talented.

[NBASupes]

Hawks lost too much shooting

[sturt]

1 hour ago, Spud2nique said:

@sturt

Spud, why are you always doing this kind of thing?... reinterpreting what someone (me, quite often) said to fit some narrative you've devised?

 

No, whatever our record is, the point remains regardless that we would be better off basketball-wise with KVon this season than without KVon. As a fan, I was not content with trading KVon, but I at least could be understanding of it if it were true that the front office was primarily motivated to make that trade to restore a draft pick given up in the DJM trade.

I'm not content nor understanding of it if, as Kirschner suggested in his tweet in the last few days, it is true that that directive came from the owner, which suggests he's seriously, seriously, injured the perception of integrity I'd been willing to assign to the owner... that, because the almost necessary inference is that if Ressler was the driving force, then the transaction was primarily payroll (ie, lux tax) related.

 

Now, to be fair.... and I normally try to be... it's a valid point that one of Kirschner's last tweets before taking the NYY gig was to crucify Ressler for being the driving force behind our 2nd round draft pick exchange that netted $3m for waiting to take Tyrese Martin... as-if we should all be readily persuaded that Ryan Rollins (who GSW took in our slot) is so very superior.

That's a yellow flag on young Chris... me and others considered that to be an overreaction, bordering on strange. In context with this newest tweet, healthy skepticism has to wonder if there was some sour taste Ressler left in young Chris Kirschner's mouth, or vice versa or both... and Chris is just taking advantage of his distance now, and shooting his mouth off to take another shot at Ressler.

Will say this much. Chris Kirschner doesn't strike me as the sort of person who would be above that.

 

Then again, the two thoughts are not mutually exclusive. Kirschner might have been taking a shot at Ressler out of some residual dislike for him, and, Kirschner may have legitimate insight that Ressler effectively forced his basketball ops people to cut salary.

 

Circling back, @Spud2nique , please notice I asked the owner a question. I don't know the answer for certain. When one doesn't know the answer for certain, it's appropriate to ask a question.

(Like in this case... it would have been appropriate to ask sturt the question, "Does this mean you're panicking?")

[macdaddy]

39 minutes ago, AHF said:

Guys can shoot their normal %s.  Pretty simple idea.  Other than Aaron Holiday, everyone regressing to the mean would translate into significantly better 3pt shooting.

I thought this too at first but i don't think this would be that significant outside of Trae regressing to the mean.  Everyone else isn't that far off their career average except JC who's a low volume shooter anyway. 

 

 

[Spud2nique]

23 minutes ago, sturt said:

Spud, why are you always doing this kind of thing?..

 You mean bringing up the thread and posts you consistently make to tell us to chill for 25 games? That’s facts now you’re saying you didn’t say that? 

[Spud2nique]

25 minutes ago, sturt said:

Does this mean you're panicking?")

Well… are ya? 
 

[JeffS17]

1 hour ago, AHF said:

The obvious solution from a personnel standpoint to bolster our shooting for this year was keeping Huerter and then trading him at the deadline

I don't know why we didn't keep him around until the deadline.  Maybe we though the 1st rounder offer was at risk if we waited and Ressler definitely wasn't going to pay the tax so why wait...

1 hour ago, AHF said:

Guys can shoot their normal %s.  Pretty simple idea.  Other than Aaron Holiday, everyone regressing to the mean would translate into significantly better 3pt shooting.

My worry on hoping this happens is that people shooting their normal % is under better coaching or better offensive schemes.  It doesn't feel like there's any rhythm to this offense, and it doesn't feel like to me (would love if someone had stats) we're creating as many open looks / easy buckets.  It's possible people are just shooting what will be their norms under Nate's "offense", which would indicate there's no regressing back to career averages.

1 hour ago, AHF said:

Change in offensive strategy.  (I.e., Nate is replaced.)  The next time I see us running some real screen action to get a perimeter shooter a good look might be the first.

Which leads to this being the only tenable solution in my mind.  I'd love to know what conversations we have had about bringing in a guy like Snyder or D'Antoni.  I'm sure Schlenk and Fields and Ressler have had these conversations.  Waiting on that first Woj tweet leaked from the FO that "The Hawks are unsure about the future of head coach Nate McMillan.  The team had high hopes with the addition of all-star, Dejounte Murray, this offseason and it is believed they are exploring options for a permanent coaching change."

[macdaddy]

It'll be interesting to see about Nate.  We're 11-9.   Yeah I'm discouraged by how we've played but usually takes more than that for a coaching change, especially one that brings in an outsider.  

 

[AHF]

36 minutes ago, macdaddy said:

I thought this too at first but i don't think this would be that significant outside of Trae regressing to the mean.  Everyone else isn't that far off their career average except JC who's a low volume shooter anyway. 

 

 

JC:  3.4 attempts per game.  22.4% vs 3 year avg of 38.8%

JH:  3.7 attempts per game.  31.7% vs 3 year avg of 38.2%

JJ:  1.3 attempts per game.  19.2% vs 37.5% gleague last year

DH: 4.1 attempts per game.  33.1% vs 3 year avg of 37.5%

 

That is a collective 12.5 attempts per game all being shot at a weighted average of 9.7% below their norm.  It wouldn't fix all our ills but I think that would be pretty impactful if they matched their previous numbers going forward.

[macdaddy]

24 minutes ago, AHF said:

JC:  3.4 attempts per game.  22.4% vs 3 year avg of 38.8%

JH:  3.7 attempts per game.  31.7% vs 3 year avg of 38.2%

JJ:  1.3 attempts per game.  19.2% vs 37.5% gleague last year

DH: 4.1 attempts per game.  33.1% vs 3 year avg of 37.5%

 

That is a collective 12.5 attempts per game all being shot at a weighted average of 9.7% below their norm.  It wouldn't fix all our ills but I think that would be pretty impactful if they matched their previous numbers going forward.

It will help but these are all low volume guys, JH isn't in the rotation and JJ is a low minute big.  We're talking about maybe getting 1 or 2 more 3s a game if these guys shoot their career average.  I mean i'll take it but it's not like we're waiting on Khris Middleton to start coming around.  

My point is that we're just a bad 3 point shooting team.  

[Diesel]

3 hours ago, Wretch said:

It is very rare that I find myself disagreeing with you (can't even recall a time), and I'm not disagreeing here.  Though I do have to clarify my position on Trae/DJM "taking turns." I firmly believe that we're not going to win much of anything without ISO/PNR.  However, there's an answer for that and we see it night in and night out.  We have to make an adjustment.  So, I don't believe the offense is bad as much as believe that it's incomplete. 

I don't think we're a better team without the ball in Trae's hands.  If we were to move to a motion offense, I feel like we'd be no better than we are now.  We would sacrifice both the elite ISO threat that Trae is AND the benefit of his court vision/passing.  Not to talk in circles, but again...the defense is going to force something/someone else to beat us.  

I believe our bench is underperforming, but I've seen them do some really good things.  Especially earlier in the season.  So, I don't know if I would say they're just substandard subs...  I do know that this offense isn't doing them any favors, especially when we stagger the PG minutes so rigid.  Ultimately, it's hard for me to talk about upgrades when I don't think we're seeing the best version of this team together.  One thing I do know for a Stone Cold Steve Austin fact - if our game is in the paint/at the basket, there has got to be shooters, ball movement, and player movement to punish the defense.

This is interesting.  This suggests that Nate is taking the right tactic in terms of team's offense... it's just that his GM has given him CRAP for a Bench.

[AHF]

12 minutes ago, macdaddy said:

It will help but these are all low volume guys, JH isn't in the rotation and JJ is a low minute big.  We're talking about maybe getting 1 or 2 more 3s a game if these guys shoot their career average.  I mean i'll take it but it's not like we're waiting on Khris Middleton to start coming around.  

My point is that we're just a bad 3 point shooting team.  

I don't disagree with that but something that boosts our offense by 3 points a game (or whatever number you want to use) is pretty huge.  It not only potentially gives us a big boost to offense but also boosts our defense since that is one or two more possessions where the opposing team isn't collecting a rebound and trying to run against us before we are set. 

This in conjunction with Bogi's return could really make a serious difference for us, imo.  (A 3-4 point increase would mean we go from middle of the pack in points per game with the T-Wolves to right up next to Golden State as a top 5 team).

[Spud2nique]

1 hour ago, macdaddy said:

It'll be interesting to see about Nate.  We're 11-9.   Yeah I'm discouraged by how we've played but usually takes more than that for a coaching change, especially one that brings in an outsider.  

 

Oh my.. Punty is gonna run it.  

[REHawksFan]

6 minutes ago, macdaddy said:

It will help but these are all low volume guys, JH isn't in the rotation and JJ is a low minute big.  We're talking about maybe getting 1 or 2 more 3s a game if these guys shoot their career average.  I mean i'll take it but it's not like we're waiting on Khris Middleton to start coming around.  

My point is that we're just a bad 3 point shooting team.  

Yep.  Been saying the same things.  

Coming into this year:

JC:  277-736 for 37.6% on 2.5 att per game.  This year he's taking 3.4 per game so his career avg would equate to 1.3 makes per game. That's only 0.5  more than he makes currently.

From	To	G	GS	MP	FG	FGA	FG%	3P	3PA	3P%	2P	2PA	2P%	eFG%	FT	FTA	FT%	ORB	DRB	TRB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	PTS
2018	2022	293	242	8488	1900	3396	.559	277	736	.376	1623	2660	.610	.600	760	975	.779	722	1719	2441	455	167	304	444	909	4837

DH: 213-594 for 35.9% on 4.3 att per game. This year he's taking 4.1 per game so his career avg would equate to 1.5 makes per game. That's only 0.1 more than he makes currently. 

From	To	G	GS	MP	FG	FGA	FG%	3P	3PA	3P%	2P	2PA	2P%	eFG%	FT	FTA	FT%	ORB	DRB	TRB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	PTS
2020	2022	139	133	4273	654	1506	.434	213	594	.359	441	912	.484	.505	310	395	.785	87	485	572	224	99	51	201	396	1831

JJ:  13.3 minutes per game and takes 1.3 att per game.  If he shoots 40% he'll only increase the makes by 0.2 per game. 

JH:  He's a career 36.5% 3pt shooter on 6.8 att per 36 min. He currently out of the rotation but when he plays he's logging 16.6 min/gm so that equates to 3.1 att and 1.1 makes per game.  That would actually take away from his contributions as he's currently attempting 3.7 per game.  

From	To	G	GS	MP	FG	FGA	FG%	3P	3PA	3P%	2P	2PA	2P%	FT	FTA	FT%	ORB	DRB	TRB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	PTS
2013	2022	576	285	14149	4.4	11.1	.398	2.5	6.8	.365	1.9	4.3	.451	1.4	1.7	.820	0.6	3.8	4.3	2.2	1.4	0.6	1.3	2.4	12.7

Even with Trae, his career average coming into this season is only 2.6 makes per game. And he's making 2.3 per game currently.  

From	To	G	GS	MP	FG	FGA	FG%	3P	3PA	3P%	2P	2PA	2P%	eFG%	FT	FTA	FT%	ORB	DRB	TRB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	PTS
2019	2022	280	280	9400	2269	5161	.440	730	2057	.355	1539	3104	.496	.510	1808	2072	.873	184	901	1085	2544	262	42	1161	483	7076

So with these five players we are realistically looking at a gain of 1.0-1.5 3pt makes per game if they all regress to their mean.  

[AHF]

6 minutes ago, REHawksFan said:

Yep.  Been saying the same things.  

Coming into this year:

JC:  277-736 for 37.6% on 2.5 att per game.  This year he's taking 3.4 per game so his career avg would equate to 1.3 makes per game. That's only 0.5  more than he makes currently.

From	To	G	GS	MP	FG	FGA	FG%	3P	3PA	3P%	2P	2PA	2P%	eFG%	FT	FTA	FT%	ORB	DRB	TRB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	PTS
2018	2022	293	242	8488	1900	3396	.559	277	736	.376	1623	2660	.610	.600	760	975	.779	722	1719	2441	455	167	304	444	909	4837

DH: 213-594 for 35.9% on 4.3 att per game. This year he's taking 4.1 per game so his career avg would equate to 1.5 makes per game. That's only 0.1 more than he makes currently. 

From	To	G	GS	MP	FG	FGA	FG%	3P	3PA	3P%	2P	2PA	2P%	eFG%	FT	FTA	FT%	ORB	DRB	TRB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	PTS
2020	2022	139	133	4273	654	1506	.434	213	594	.359	441	912	.484	.505	310	395	.785	87	485	572	224	99	51	201	396	1831

JJ:  13.3 minutes per game and takes 1.3 att per game.  If he shoots 40% he'll only increase the makes by 0.2 per game. 

JH:  He's a career 36.5% 3pt shooter on 6.8 att per 36 min. He currently out of the rotation but when he plays he's logging 16.6 min/gm so that equates to 3.1 att and 1.1 makes per game.  That would actually take away from his contributions as he's currently attempting 3.7 per game.  

From	To	G	GS	MP	FG	FGA	FG%	3P	3PA	3P%	2P	2PA	2P%	FT	FTA	FT%	ORB	DRB	TRB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	PTS
2013	2022	576	285	14149	4.4	11.1	.398	2.5	6.8	.365	1.9	4.3	.451	1.4	1.7	.820	0.6	3.8	4.3	2.2	1.4	0.6	1.3	2.4	12.7

Even with Trae, his career average coming into this season is only 2.6 makes per game. And he's making 2.3 per game currently.  

From	To	G	GS	MP	FG	FGA	FG%	3P	3PA	3P%	2P	2PA	2P%	eFG%	FT	FTA	FT%	ORB	DRB	TRB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	PTS
2019	2022	280	280	9400	2269	5161	.440	730	2057	.355	1539	3104	.496	.510	1808	2072	.873	184	901	1085	2544	262	42	1161	483	7076

So with these five players we are realistically looking at a gain of 1.0-1.5 3pt makes per game if they all regress to their mean.  

An increase of 3-4.5 points per game on the same shots is not a trivial increase.  Then you add in Bogi's return which is probably the single most potentially transformative change (that could happen with the current roster and Nate continuing the same offense).

[sturt]

1 hour ago, Spud2nique said:

now you’re saying you didn’t say that?

... *sigh*... like I just said... no, Spud... get this please...

 

2 hours ago, sturt said:

No, whatever our record is, the point remains regardless that we would be better off basketball-wise with KVon this season than without KVon.

 

[REHawksFan]

21 minutes ago, AHF said:

An increase of 3-4.5 points per game on the same shots is not a trivial increase.  Then you add in Bogi's return which is probably the single most potentially transformative change (that could happen with the current roster and Nate continuing the same offense).

I agree on Bogie.  He's the single most impactful addition to this team.  Assuming he's ever actually added.  And to this point, we've got nada in the way of expectations that he'll be healthy anytime soon.  

I just disagree that regression to the mean for the majority of our players regarding perimeter shots is any significant hope. For one, it would require ALL OF THEM to improve which seems like a big ask; and two, it also doesn't happen in a vacuum so it's just as likely other guys like JC, DJ, Big O, and Clint could regress some on their 2pt shots (which we've already seen teams crowd the lane and make it harder for guys to get easy shots). 

Here's what sticks in my craw...we've got the bulk of the team shooting poorly (27th in eFG and 26th in TS%) while also attempting the 2nd fewest 3 pointers in the NBA.  My eyeballs tell me it's the whole offense, not JUST the perimeter shooting.  Whether it's spacing or system or whatever, something is broken and I just have a hard time imagining that 5 guys increasing their 3pt makes by a combined 1.5 per game is going to solve it.  

Edited November 28, 2022 by REHawksFan